"There Is No Shortage?" Train Loads Of Lumber Stacked As Far As The Eye Can See

[Asaltweapon]

What do you think the market is going to do this year? Wondering if you are seeing any long term relief, or if we will see a repeat of last year with no lumber to be found, and surging prices again? Last summer my wife started a business making kids outdoor play equipment. We use all PT lumber, and I was driving all over trying to get lumber. Im trying to decide if I should take the gamble and just buy a ton this spring and hope that prices dont fall through the floor.

I wouldn’t. What goes up will come down.

 

[Jarcese]

What I've read is there never was a shortage. Forestry never shut down. Mills on the other hand did. Suppliers had plenty of stock, but foreseeing a possible shortage with no resupply, they raised prices for buyers. Buyers refused to pay high prices so stock ran out at stores as a game of chicken ensued. Stores began to run out and then were forced to buy at high prices later. They passed that price on to the consumer. They will continue to pass that on until they recoup their money or until people stop buying it, then prices will correct. Who knows how long that will be.

 

[Dennis in MA]

Sure. Mills shut down for a bit. And demand is up. But all through the pipeline, people are taking a cut and blaming it on the Pandemic.

It can also turn around and bite you in the ass. Plenty of people thought they'd squeeze an opportunity and forgot that there was this second-level tech or player that was just not popular due to pricing. Once pricing got screwed up, the second-level tech/player became the industry leader and the screwer became the screwee.

 

[Vermonster]

Sure. Mills shut down for a bit. And demand is up. But all through the pipeline, people are taking a cut and blaming it on the Pandemic.

It can also turn around and bite you in the ass. Plenty of people thought they'd squeeze an opportunity and forgot that there was this second-level tech or player that was just not popular due to pricing. Once pricing got screwed up, the second-level tech/player became the industry leader and the screwer became the screwee.

NH/ME Sample:
4 loggers; 2 large landowners; 2 professional foresters.
Price paid for wood at the mill is roughly the same today as 10 years ago. Plus pulp market sucks (hard to even sell pulp in some areas after Maine mill explosion); I know truckers in Coos County taking loads of pulp to Sappi in Skowhegan, when they can get a ticket.
Nobody who works in the woods is "taking a cut". Short winter made the pain worse. Bank still wants $$ for loan on the skidder (used, costs the same as a new Tesla).

The largest softwood dimensional lumber mill in NH is operating at 100% capacity and selling everything they can produce. I would guess profits for them are up--but since they are a private company who knows.

 

[AHM]

I can see it now:

Old and Busted: Stripping copper wire and pipe out of unguarded buildings.
The New Hotness: Stripping lumber out of unguarded buildings.

---

I bought these last year for $3.78

View attachment 478783

You the stud.

 

[Fixxah]

If I need any lumber there's a sawmill in Norton and he will sell any size and length boards you want. Last time there, I watched the operation and it brought back the terrifying memories of working in my Grandfather's mill. Scary stuff you don't want to be complacent around.

 

[DJBrad]

NH/ME Sample:
4 loggers; 2 large landowners; 2 professional foresters.
Price paid for wood at the mill is roughly the same today as 10 years ago. Plus pulp market sucks (hard to even sell pulp in some areas after Maine mill explosion); I know truckers in Coos County taking loads of pulp to Sappi in Skowhegan, when they can get a ticket.
Nobody who works in the woods is "taking a cut". Short winter made the pain worse. Bank still wants $$ for loan on the skidder (used, costs the same as a new Tesla).

The largest softwood dimensional lumber mill in NH is operating at 100% capacity and selling everything they can produce. I would guess profits for them are up--but since they are a private company who knows.

Stump prices are rather stupid as is. They haven't moved here in central Ma for a long time either. It’s voluntarily reported. The problem with milling your own is most towns and municipalities won’t allow anything not stamped and certified in residential building. I could mill higher quality dimensional lumber made from my oak, beech, pine, and hemlock. More .gov regulation to kill the tax payer.

 

[AHM]

If I need any lumber there's a sawmill in Norton and he will sell any size and length boards you want. Last time there, I watched the operation and it brought back the terrifying memories of working in my Grandfather's mill. Scary stuff you don't want to be complalcent around.

 

[Baby Billy]

Years ago Florida citrus growers were caught dumping rails cars of oranges to drive up the price.

Diamonds are mined only enough to keep the price high. They could mine so much of them it would be worth a piece of marble.

Market manipulation has happened since markets were created.

Reminds me of a certain brewery in Massachusetts.

 

[07Mustang]

What do you think the market is going to do this year? Wondering if you are seeing any long term relief, or if we will see a repeat of last year with no lumber to be found, and surging prices again? Last summer my wife started a business making kids outdoor play equipment. We use all PT lumber, and I was driving all over trying to get lumber. Im trying to decide if I should take the gamble and just buy a ton this spring and hope that prices dont fall through the floor.

Honestly this is just a guess based on 30+ years in the business and a undergraduate degree in forestry. Prices are at all time highs and will stay this high until demand falls. Current production can not keep up with the demand at this level. In 2005 we had housing starts at over 2 million and the industry where building plants like crazy to meet that demand. When the bottom fell out of that market many of mills where not completed or never produced any finished products. In 2009 housing starts where lucky to be 500,000. Major people where laid off in the lumber industry, I was lucky to keep my job, we had several people let go in my office.

If you look at the 25 year chart on this link we have had a steady increase in starts since than and you can see the covid dip last year. During this steady but small year to year increase, there was very little capital investments made into new mills. Last year that dip was replaced by repair and remodel demand with everyone staying home and spending stimulus money to complete honey do list.

United States Housing Starts

Housing Starts in the United States decreased to 1321 Thousand units in March from 1549 Thousand units in February of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Housing Starts - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...

tradingeconomics.com

The Fed by continuing to print dollars in the attempt to keep inflation at bay will not last forever. Some day they will raise rates and that will slow down starts. I don't see that happening until 4th quarter 2021 or 1st quarter 2022.

Not to mention the Canadian US duty war for the past 40 years. It is a complex issue.

I worked for a wood treater for 9 years in Georgia in sales. Our prices went up and down as the raw untreated wood costs changed, we changes treatment prices maybe once every 18 months as chemicals costs changed.

I worked for a now retired manager and one of his best lines I still use is , "Hope is not a strategy."

 

[rudiewhitebwoy]

I would say that all that lumber is indeed sold.

The supply chain is basically broken. I work in wholesale lumber for a major player. Been doing it for 30+ years. I buy domestically and internationally. I have orders from last November that have not shipped. I bought some birch plywood from a mill in Canada this week, the lead time for shipment is the last week in August. That is 4 months out, if the market does break and prices fall, my company take the hit. I have a container that sat in Freeport in the Bahamas that came from Europe, 30 days I still have not received in my location in Florida. There is a mill in Mississippi that owns my company 7 truck loads, but ran out of raw material and can not produce the finished products. Glue and resigns that are used is particle board and MDF have all gone up in price. Oh and transportation has gone crazy as there are about 50 loads for every flat bed truck on the roads, and the lumber industry are cheap bastards when it comes to paying truckers., so lumber sits and other goods pay the prices, like produce, landscaping material.

International container rates have gone from $2000 per container to $10,000 per container and even paying that there is no space available from the far east to US. Retailers have already started bringing in Christmas products.

So if you want to see prices fall stop buying. when order files back up to the mills prices will fall but I don't see it happening until the 4th quarter of 2021 or first quarter of 2022.

That's definitely Island Pond and it must all be sold, who ships to a reload without the stock being sold. You must work for one of my vendors. We're contractor supply but 40 years ago we were listed in the Red Book as a industrial wholesaler, you know, back when we had industry in the US and the Red Book still existed. I started writing a diatribe at about 8:30 this AM after reading this thread. So between phone calls, broken forklifts, Brosco bringing the wrong Doors etc, I'm about half way through. If I even post it, I welcome you to tear it apart. I been in this industry well over 40 years and I've never seen nothing like this. The simplest explanation is supply and demand. At some point in the near future, every retail & wholesale lumberyard in the country is going to have a real bad quarter. It'll be a race to the bottom, who can dump all their high priced wood for a loss the fastest in order to get back to a normal average. In commodity lumber, you should sell based on replacement, not cost. We had a killer 2nd & 3rd quarter last year. Everybody was so excited about our margins but I reminded them it cuts both ways. I predicted November as the month the Market would shit the bed. It dipped for a few weeks then took off like a shot. I guess I was wrong, not the first time.

 

[safetyfirst2125]

View: https://twitter.com/offtheruntrades/status/1385032386392461312?s=21

 

[jakeroub]

Following this thread because my wife and I are planning to build a house. Been in the works for several years and it looks like next spring is when it could finally happen. However, with lumber prices as high as they are we are considering delaying further. Kind of hoping for a crash in lumber prices, but with our current game holding value.

 

[Dennis in MA]

The Fed by continuing to print dollars in the attempt to keep inflation at bay will not last forever. Some day they will raise rates and that will slow down starts. I don't see that happening until 4th quarter 2021 or 1st quarter 2022.

You think Jerome is gonna raise rates by THAT MUCH within the next 12 months????? Sure, if the market FORCES him to. Otherwise, he's a slave to the "low interest rates makes me look smart forever on my Wiki page." Just like the last 3 Fed Chairs. The modern fed chair is the helicopter parent of the stock market. And I'm not sure why. It's not their job. Thanks A-hole Greenspan!

 

[bullseye]

Went to Lowe's in Sanford, NC yesterday as they had 2x6x16 PT Severe weather in stock along with 2x6x12's. I pulled up and parked on the contractor side of the building and looked down the road that runs around the back of Lowe's. It was stacked with lumber of all sizes!! When I left I drove around the back and the amount of lumber stacked out back was off the charts!! The 2-6-16's were 20 bucks apiece and the 2-6-12's were 15.37 each.
Deck repairs!!
Honestly, at the price point lumber is at right now, TREX is sounding real competitive!!

 

[PappyM3]

All I know is several companies wanted $200k+ for a rather small dormer project on my house. Something that would have cost $50-60k in 2019.

... and they’re booked through the end of the year. People are paying these prices. Heck, my wife wanted to still do it, even though there’s no way it would add more than $100k to the value of our home.

 

[07Mustang]

That's definitely Island Pond and it must all be sold, who ships to a reload without the stock being sold. You must work for one of my vendors. We're contractor supply but 40 years ago we were listed in the Red Book as a industrial wholesaler, you know, back when we had industry in the US and the Red Book still existed. I started writing a diatribe at about 8:30 this AM after reading this thread. So between phone calls, broken forklifts, Brosco bringing the wrong Doors etc, I'm about half way through. If I even post it, I welcome you to tear it apart. I been in this industry well over 40 years and I've never seen nothing like this. The simplest explanation is supply and demand. At some point in the near future, every retail & wholesale lumberyard in the country is going to have a real bad quarter. It'll be a race to the bottom, who can dump all their high priced wood for a loss the fastest in order to get back to a normal average. In commodity lumber, you should sell based on replacement, not cost. We had a killer 2nd & 3rd quarter last year. Everybody was so excited about our margins but I reminded them it cuts both ways. I predicted November as the month the Market would shit the bed. It dipped for a few weeks then took off like a shot. I guess I was wrong, not the first time.

I work for Boise Cascade. Ah the Red Book, you must remember rail freight when it was charged by the hundred weight, and when people in the lumber industry knew what a board foot was. First loss is the best loss but we are a long ways from that. The supply chain is basically broken right now, I can not buy what I need to buy and my wheel barrel full of money doesn't make a difference.

 

[rudiewhitebwoy]

I work for Boise Cascade. Ah the Red Book, you must remember rail freight when it was charged by the hundred weight, and when people in the lumber industry knew what a board foot was. First loss is the best loss but we are a long ways from that. The supply chain is basically broken right now, I can not buy what I need to buy and my wheel barrel full of money doesn't make a difference.

Greenland, Westfield, Nuttings Lake or Saco?
I remember when they were Furman on Fuller Street in Attleboro and before that, the Lopez Trucking warehouse in Waltham. My ex-wifes cousin is Vinny Lopez. Vinny was also cousins with the late traffic manager @ Boise/Furman Ronnie Lopez.

 

[07Mustang]

Greenland, Westfield, Nuttings Lake or Saco?
I remember when they were Furman on Fuller Street in Attleboro and before that, the Lopez Trucking warehouse in Waltham. My ex-wifes cousin is Vinny Lopez. Vinny was also cousins with the late traffic manager @ Boise/Furman Ronnie Lopez.

Nutting Lake next month 16 years, I worked with Ronnie Lopez the last few years before he retired, he pasted 10 years ago. Been to dinner at his house many times, he was a good man.

 

[daveyburt]

All I know is several companies wanted $200k+ for a rather small dormer project on my house. Something that would have cost $50-60k in 2019.

... and they’re booked through the end of the year. People are paying these prices. Heck, my wife wanted to still do it, even though there’s no way it would add more than $100k to the value of our home.

They're all paying for it with money they don't have.

 

[free]

Dover-Foxcroft ME. Pleasant River Lumber.

 

[rudiewhitebwoy]

Nutting Lake next month 16 years, I worked with Ronnie Lopez the last few years before he retired, he pasted 10 years ago. Been to dinner at his house many times, he was a good man.

Lots of good guys have gone. Red Doyle and before your time, Tom Skelly, I was talking to Meg about him the week he passed.
So you work with Meg, Laura, Mike and the new boss, Roger. This must be Steve, from Hoover and maybe Feldman before that.

National Lumber was a Attleborough/Portsmouth Account. Johnny, Jay & Chip convinced Ray Insani to trade one of his Accounts for National. If you haven't figured out who I am, ask Ray Insani what Account he traded for National.

Dover-Foxcroft ME. Pleasant River Lumber.

When Pleasant bought Moose River, Moose's quality went up, but Pleasant's went down.

 

[07Mustang]

Lots of good guys have gone. Red Doyle and before your time, Tom Skelly, I was talking to Meg about him the week he passed.
So you work with Meg, Laura, Mike and the new boss, Roger. This must be Steve, from Hoover and maybe Feldman before that.

National Lumber was a Attleborough/Portsmouth Account. Johnny, Jay & Chip convinced Ray Insani to trade one of his Accounts for National. If you haven't figured out who I am, ask Ray Insani what Account he traded for National.

When Pleasant bought Moose River, Moose's quality went up, but Pleasant's went down.

That is I, (Tulnoy in NY). I know mills more than the local companies, never worked for a branch always on the corporate side I have never been to Westfield branch. I bought lumber from Moose River in the 1980's before they had kilns, stayed at Charlie's house in Jackman, on the grouse hunting outings. Bought from Luke when it was Stratton Lumber.

 

[rudiewhitebwoy]

That is I, (Tulnoy in NY). I know mills more than the local companies, never worked for a branch always on the corporate side I have never been to Westfield branch. I bought lumber from Moose River in the 1980's before they had kilns, stayed at Charlie's house in Jackman, on the grouse hunting outings. Bought from Luke when it was Stratton Lumber.

Stratton/Fontaine

 

[07Mustang]

Stratton/Fontaine

when it was just Stratton, even before Fontaine.

 

[Dennis in MA]

I preferred Stratton Oakmont.

 

[SKumar]

 

[AHM]

View attachment 479977

All is unfolding as I have forseen.

 

[Asaltweapon]

Southbound lumber traffic yesterday was low, noticeably low to me partially because of this thread. Maybe saw a dozen flatbed loads.
Log trucks are starting to roll again out of the woods but I honestly expected to see more.

 

[Dennis in MA]

Is that lumber wood or pulpwood???