***Warning — Rant Advisory***
ok, WTF is with the ammo shortage??? Alright, I get the fact that there are a bazillion new gun owners due to all the craziness... but seriously with the ammo???
Fine, I totally get the fact that panic buying has people willing to pay HIGHLY inflated prices— demand is high, I get it...
But supply? TSUSA is not getting in new inventory. Many LGS aren’t getting in inventory either. When there was a TP shortage at the beginning of C-19, I read someplace that manufacturing works at a constant production rate to balance profits versus production, so there would not be a huge storage of inventory, since demand is relatively constant.
While ammo purchasing tends to fluctuate more than TP, even at a baseline production rate, I would imaging supply to be constant, but demand to be high resulting in a perceived shortage. BUT —there have been very few manufactures brands on TSUSA or Cabelas shelves, or the LGS, so where is the supply???
Tinfoil hat time — is there a huge up-tick in government purchasing of ammo where it’s shifted away from the civilian market? Why has supply diminished so drastically? Are the political powers-that-be squeezing manufacturers threatening higher regulations in a Biden-run administration post-election, so the major manufacturers have caved-in to the political pressures???
I know there have been ammo shortages in the past, droughts if you will. The salty, seasoned old-timers say stock-up before the panic buying and I, like many, have listened only to avoid $1.00/rnd pricing at the rate things are going... but this is ridiculous.
I find it hard to believe that all of the woke have stocked up on ammo so deep that “regular” pre-panic shooters can’t find ammo. This FEELS off...
***Rant Over***
Its demand overload. Have you seen the number of people taking LTC classes, the retail stores selling 12 guns when they should have 75? All of the manufacturers are churning out guns/ammo as fast as they can in spite of coronavirus induced delays. Theyre in the business of making money..
Add in: The "Just in Time" distribution protocols have no way to absorb demand when EVERYTHING (not just guns) are being bought out. Think about how long it takes to get decking materials, washers, refrigerators, your Amazon Prime delivery right now. The supply chain for everything is broken. The distribution networks are at max capacity.
From Vista outdoor (federal cci blazer speer etc) parent company ER:
Mark Smith
Okay. And then last one for me. Can you talk at all, especially within Ammunition about backlog or maybe a different way of looking at it if we shut off all sales today? How long would it take just to refill channel inventory?
Chris Metz
Yes. So Mark, it's an insightful question. And I think if you talk to our retailers, which we talk to them all the time, they said, hey, listen, if everything were just to come to a screeching halt right now, it would take us months just to stock our shelves, to stock our warehouses to get back to a point where we feel comfortable that we've got the supply that we need. So that - there is - so that was kind of the first part of your question. What was the other part of your question, Mark, I want to make sure I address it?
Mark Smith
Yes. Just anything on that backlog, anything that you can quantify or help with on kind of how long you think maybe this goes just to try to catch up?
.
Chris Metz
Well, here's the interesting thing about backlog. So we had our strongest order writing month back in March, followed by our second strongest order month, which was this past month, July. So July, which is the beginning of our second quarter, was our strongest order writing month. So it certainly hasn't slowed down at all.[/QUOTE]