Tracing the "90% of guns from US" Bad Gun Math

[aileron]

Cool, this is from NarcoSphere as well. Tons of links.


http://narcosphere.narconews.com/no...rco-syndicates-rising-firepower#comment-28818

Tracing the Bad Gun Math
Submitted March 30, 2009 - 9:04 pm by Bill Conroy

A big part of the argument being made by the U.S. and Mexican governments with respect to the source of guns in the possession of Mexican narco-trafficking groups is based on statistics related to so-called gun traces conducted by the ATF.

But if you follow the media narrative on this, as well as the U.S. government’s own proclamations, you soon discover that the math being practiced is right out of Alice in Wonderland, via the Mock Turtle: Reeling and Writhing, of course, to begin with, and then the different branches of arithmetic -- Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.

I didn’t want to weigh a story down with this funny math — and I expect that is what the practitioners of this arithmetic alchemy are counting on — but for those who are interested, here is a run down of the madness being packaged and sold to us as fact.

From a Feb. 27, 2009, report from the U.S. Department of State:

As of November 12, 2008, GOM [Government of Mexico] security forces had seized 39,437 illegal firearms, including the record-breaking seizure of weapons believed to belong to the Zetas of the Gulf cartel.​

[Presumably that is for the year 2008, since the figure comes from a State Department report that offers a review of statistics from 2008.]

A Feb. 28, 2009, CBS/Associated Press story, however, presents a different set of facts, based, in part, on Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s statements:

"We need to stop the flow of guns and weapons towards Mexico," President Calderon told AP. "Let me express to you that we've seized in this two years more than 25,000 weapons and guns, and more than 90 percent of them came from United States, and I'm talking from missiles launchers to machine guns and grenades."
​

[Calderon’s two-year, 25,000 gun-seizure figure is remarkable in that it is considerably less than the State Department’s figure for less than one year.]

That same CBS/AP report offers up the following so-called facts:

The ATF says more than 7,700 guns sold in America were traced to Mexico last year, up from 3,300 the year before and about 2,100 in 2006.​

The report fails to make clear whether the years in question are calendar or fiscal years, [and for the U.S. government, the fiscal year ends on Sept. 30, three months prior to the end of the calendar year]. Presumably the CBS/AP report was just imprecise and meant to refer to fiscal years, since that is generally the basis on which the ATF and other government agencies report their statistics.

The New York Times, in a March 25, 2009, story then offers up this gem of a statistic, divorced of any context:

On top of that, 90 percent of the guns used by Mexican drug cartels originated in the United States, according to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.​

We have to ask here, 90 percent of what? Does the Times mean 90 percent of guns traced by ATF, since Mexico does not have a gun tracing system, or do they really mean to say 90 percent of all guns used by drug cartels? If so, the ATF must then have an inventory of all the guns still in the “cartels’” possession, right? Wonder how they got that?

The Wall Street Journal does a bit better than AP in it’s precision over the nature of the year being described in a March 2, 2009, story that includes this bit of data:

The number of U.S. guns in Mexico is growing. The Justice Department's Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, or ATF, says more than 7,700 guns sold in America were traced to Mexico in the fiscal year ending last September. That's twice the 3,300 recorded the previous year [fiscal 2007]and more than triple the 2,100 traced the year before that.​

So it looks, indeed, as though the AP report was, in fact, referring to a fiscal year in presenting its ATF gun-trace figures.

However, the New York Times, again, seems to be working from a different set of books, as it reports in a Feb. 26, 2009, story, the following:

In 2007, the firearms agency [ATF] traced 2,400 weapons seized in Mexico back to dealers in the United States, and 1,800 of those came from dealers operating in the four states along the border, with Texas first, followed by California, Arizona and New Mexico.​

Again, that 2,400 figure is some 900 guns shy of the 3,300 gun traces the Wall Street Journal reported for that same year — assuming the Times is working with fiscal-year numbers, though the ambiguity helps to cover the imprecise reporting.

But both the New York Times and Wall Street Journal gun-tracing figures from fiscal 2007 don’t match the numbers reported by the ATF in a Feb. 7, 2008, congressional testimony, and included in the recent White House press release trumpeting it’s expanded border protection plan:

In FY 2007 alone, approximately 1,112 guns which originated in Texas, Arizona and California were submitted for tracing from Mexico. For all other U.S. States in FY 2007, approximately 435 guns were submitted for tracing from Mexico.
​

By my math, according to the congressional testimony, the tally of guns submitted to ATF for tracing in fiscal 2007 is 1,547 — far short of the marks reported by both the Times and Journal.

Based on all that, on what basis do we get to the regular claim in the mainstream media that 90 percent of the guns used by the “cartels” originate in the U.S.? It just doesn’t add up.

But don’t expect the bad math to stop, because there is an agenda to push and press deadlines to meet.

Investigators say nine out of 10 guns retrieved from crime scenes south of the border are traced back to U.S. gun dealers. — http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE52M7S720090323Reuters, March 23, 2009

ETA: Looks like this congressional testimony posted above is where the 90 percent is coming from!

 

[hminsky]

What I wonder is what percentage of the guns they find in Mexico have no serial number to trace, and if so is anyone factoring that into these numbers. I.e., if they find 1,000 guns, and only 100 have serial numbers, then maybe those ones will trace back to the US, but if you ignore the ones without serial numbers , your statistics are meaningless.

 

[doobie]

90% of what comes out of the government is worse than what terrorists do.

 

[jcetto0351]

Too bad that when I show these statistics to my liberal buddies, they don't care because guns are "scary" and there shouldn't be even one... and to quote my friend,"why do you need a gun anyways?"

They will never get it....

 

[Herrminator]

Too bad that when I show these statistics to my liberal buddies, they don't care because guns are "scary" and there shouldn't be even one... and to quote my friend,"why do you need a gun anyways?"

They will never get it....

yea, I have these friends too...to be honest with you, I think its because we're so desensitized to violence nowadays that we fear it so much in this culture and block it out of our head like "it'll never happen to me". To think life is going to be fine and dandy 24/7 is just childish. Fear only wins when there is no faith and my liberal friends are atheists= scared of death= scared of guns.

 

[fubar]

I call BS on the whole topic ( as presented by the .gov ).

Has anyone tried buying a crate of AR15's lately ? Hard to find a shop with 3 on the rack for sale. manufacturers are backordered. Ammo is scarce.

If ( a big " If " ... ) they are coming from America , it's because Colt Mfg sold the mexican government rifles for their army and They "lost" them.

Whatever the truth is , it doesn't have anything to do with our well regulated militia ( being necessary to a free state ) , so they shall not infringe my gun cabinet - or the unborn or orphaned firearms that may join it.

 

[Bruce for NH State Rep]

OK, let's use this number (assume for the time being that it's accurate).

...more than 7,700 guns sold in America were traced to Mexico...

Figure these guns range from cheap $100 milsurps, $200 semiautos and revolvers, $500 pistols, up to $1,000 AR-15's or equivalent (to pull some figures out of my ass).

At an average cost around $500 per gun, that comes to roughly 3.8 million in smuggled guns.

Now, tell me how much trouble a multi-national crime syndicate with tens of billions in annual revenue will have in finding replacement guns on the international black market, should this source dry up as a result of Obama shoving some more "common sense" gun laws down our gullets.

This is like taking 5 bucks out of the wallet of a guy who pulls down $50K a year and saying "HA! Now, you'll NEVER be able to buy that McDonalds value meal you love so much!!!"

 

[CRSIII]

I call BS on the whole topic ( as presented by the .gov ).

Has anyone tried buying a crate of AR15's lately ? Hard to find a shop with 3 on the rack for sale. manufacturers are backordered. Ammo is scarce.

If ( a big " If " ... ) they are coming from America , it's because Colt Mfg sold the mexican government rifles for their army and They "lost" them.
Whatever the truth is , it doesn't have anything to do with our well regulated militia ( being necessary to a free state ) , so they shall not infringe my gun cabinet - or the unborn or orphaned firearms that may join it.

Winner!

 

[Hamar]

90 percent of the guns used by Mexican drug cartels originated in the United States,

...and what may I ask is the percentage of illegal drugs that come into the US is from Mexico?

 

[the jeff]

We need to stop the flow of guns and weapons towards Mexico," President Calderon told AP. "Let me express to you that we've seized in this two years more than 25,000 weapons and guns, and more than 90 percent of them came from United States, and I'm talking from missiles launchers to machine guns and grenades."

Where can i buy any of that?

 

[Nectaris]

I'm going to a gun show this weekend jeff, I'll check for you there.

So according to my calculations there isn't anyway this is close to 90%. Even if we take just the numbers which favor the gun control nuts it still just comes to 60%. That is by taking the smallest number of arms seized which was 25,000 over 2 years so 12,500 for one year and using the largest number given for guns traced to the US of 7,700 we get:

7,700 / 12,500 = .616 = 61.6%

 

[WILDCATT]

MEXICAN GUNS

mexico used to make mausers,but what do they use now????if they dont make guns where do they get any.it would stand to reason that they would have to come from this country legal and illegal.and as their police and military are corrupt,it would stand to reason that that is where there coming from.the ATF traces guns from dealer to dealer but cant trace after sold only when picked up.
serial numbers ground off can be restored.I have done it on guns that were wore off to find the maker.

 

[HoseHead]

came from dealers operating in the four states along the border, with Texas first, followed by California, Arizona and New Mexico.

I though California had even tougher rules regarding AWB than MA ?
Does this mean the drug dealers are getting crippled AWs?

 

[TomH]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/04/02/myth-percent-guns-mexico-fraction-number-claimed/

Fox news weighing in on this latest major Obama administration screwup...

 

[Turbocharged]

"We need to stop the flow of guns and weapons towards Mexico," President Calderon told AP. "Let me express to you that we've seized in this two years more than 25,000 weapons and guns, and more than 90 percent of them came from United States, and I'm talking from missiles launchers to machine guns and grenades."

Wow, the Mexican president isn't too bright, is he?
Where the hell do WE get missile launchers, machine guns, and grenades? Group buy?
The .gov isn't even trying to hide the BS. They must know it's complete BS, but they'll keep pushing it because it works on some people. Namely, people that can't make their own choices but want to help "better the world".
I have to go puke, excuse me...
[EDIT] Huh, my understanding after reading that article is that 90% of the guns that Mexico sends to the US for tracking actually came from the US. Sooo, 90% of the guns that Mexican government thinks came from the US, actually did. Wow, what a horrible thing.
Now, I'd like to know what percentage of the total number of recovered guns that 90% is.

 

[TomH]

The fox article estimated it at closer to 17% I believe.

 

[one-eyed Jack]

My take is that we should ship as many guns as possible into Mexico. That way they can shoot each other up at a faster rate. Drug traffic would slow down due to a shortage of help, less Mexicans to jump the border and more work for our gun industry. Jack.

 

[LT1MCSS]

90% of all statistics are made up on the spot

 

[MaverickNH]

The fox article estimated it at closer to 17% I believe.

http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/
NPR's and Attorney General Eric Holder's amazing distortions on Mexico Crime Guns Coming from US
I have previously linked to this Fox News story: "The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.."

Here is the way that NPR covered the issue:


NPR'S INTRODUCTION TO THE STORY

"This is Morning Edition from NPR News. Good morning — I'm Renee Montaign and I'm Steve Inskeep.

"Americans may be concerned about illegal drugs coming from Mexico to the United States, but Mexicans are concerned about a bit of trade the other way.

"A related bit of trade. Weapons in this country are going to Mexico where they are used by drug cartels battling for control of turf.

"Homeland Security Secretary Janet Nepolitano and Attorney General Eric Holder are wrapping up a trip to Mexico this morning and discussing illegal weapons trafficking.

"NPR's Jason Beauvean reports."

======

"Mexico has extremely strict gun ownership laws. Yet the nation's drug cartels have being amassing huge arsenals by buying up weapons in US gun shops, and then smuggling them south."

"During a raid on a stash house in Renoso last year, Mexican police seized almost 300 assault rifles, more than 100 pistols, a dozen submachine guns and a half a million rounds of ammunition."

"An American reporter asked Attorney General Holder about the Fox news report challenging the statistic that 90% of the guns used in Mexico's drug war come from the US."

"Holder responded: 'It almost doesn't matter if it's 60%, 70% or 90% the reality is that too many guns are flowing from the United States into Mexico.' "

"The Attorney General said the weapons, particularly the high-powered assault rifles are making it difficult for the Mexican police and military to confront the drug gangs. 'We will take responsibility for what is happening and do what we can on our side of the border to stop that flow of guns.'"

"Last week Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was here, saying that the US needs to take responsibility for its "insatiable demand for narcotics."

"Homeland Security Secretary Nepolitano on this trip said the US will spend $400 million to upgrade and improve screening for weapons and other contraband at the border."

"In Mexico there's wide-spread indignation that AK-47s, M16s and other military style firearms can be purchased legally just across the Rio Grande."

"Nepolitano was asked if the Obama administration would push for an assault weapons ban. 'We intend to go forward and believe we can go forward with the laws that we have. We're not going to wait for Congress to act or not act. Ah — but ah — the sense of emergency is with us now. So we will go with what we've got.' "


Somebody tell me how NPR could do this story without once mentioning the Fox News finding that the number was 17 percent, not 90 percent. Somebody tell me how Holder could make his "It almost doesn't matter if it's 60%, 70% or 90% the reality is that too many guns are flowing from the United States into Mexico" claim and not be challenged by the reporter.

Thanks very much to Brian O'Connor for the link and the transcript.

 

[TomH]

http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/
"Last week Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was here, saying that the US needs to take responsibility for its "insatiable demand for narcotics."

They want it both ways. They blame the US for the drug demand and for supplying guns. No talk of blaming Mexico for the gun demand and supplying drugs. Does this make any sense at ALL????

 

[mikem317]

Let's see the serial numbers for the AR-15/M-16s and then we can determine the source ourselves. Of course, the guns are probably coming from the United States, but not from private gun owners. The guns are being bought by the Mexican government, and double-agents and corrupt officials are in turn, selling them to the cartels.

 

[Bill Nance]

Jesus, someone let's get together and give that author a freakin medal.

A lot of time and investigation and cross-correlating went into that. Kudos for Bill Conroy