Ammo Shortage To Continue Until Summer 2021

[Tinkermatic]

This is the crux of the matter. Supply chain is one thing but we have anti-gunners in control of the big three. I’m just waiting for an exhorbitant tax and/or outright ban on ammo sales online let alone bans on imports. It’s a bare minimum of 2 years of pain for us.

An online ammo sales ban doesn’t stifle demand though. Also to the response above, increasing capacity and sales now, gets money in one’s pocket to be able to invest before things happen. If there’s a 2 year backup and stuff goes south in a year, you’ve left more than a years worth of sales on the table, no? Maybe I’m looking at this wrong, but if I had the opportunity for $1,000 today, or $2,000 a year from now, I’d take the $1,000 today. Inflation, loss of potential investment revenue, any number of other reasons, money is worth more now than tomorrow.

Strike while the iron’s hot, as they say.
Maybe I just want them to make more ammo...

 

[djbradles]

An online ammo sales ban doesn’t stifle demand though. Also to the response above, increasing capacity and sales now, gets money in one’s pocket to be able to invest before things happen. If there’s a 2 year backup and stuff goes south in a year, you’ve left more than a years worth of sales on the table, no? Maybe I’m looking at this wrong, but if I had the opportunity for $1,000 today, or $2,000 a year from now, I’d take the $1,000 today. Inflation, loss of potential investment revenue, any number of other reasons, money is worth more now than tomorrow.

Strike while the iron’s hot, as they say.
Maybe I just want them to make more ammo...

Sure doesn't stifle demand and yes buy now, cry now. My point is we’d be sick of Norincos by now I’d they survived import ban in September ‘94. Let’s say all manufacturers are able to supply that demand by summer ‘21, and then (I sure hope not ) some draconian EO from Xiden restricts online sales of ammo and parts, or taxes them up to 500%. I can’t imagine the price markup from an lgs since they will be paying more too. My buddy just bought the last box of PPU 9mm for $50 from a lgs.

 

[drgrant]

At what point does one increase manufacturing capacity? Money now is worth more than money later. The number of new gun owners means an increase in demand that’s not going to subside when things calm down. A few million new gun owners means an increase of hundreds of millions of rounds. At some point production would need to increase, no?

Do you have any idea how long it takes to increase manufacturing capacity in a meaningful way? I think I already covered this in another thread but it's not a quite as simple as you're making it out to be..... even if they agree that they need to blow the money on expansion you're looking at an expansion project that could take months for every factory to add production lines and get rid of bottlenecks.... not to mention a totally unrealistic that any of these companies would even think about making that decision until either the election or inauguration given the political bullshit in this industry.... hell they might even be waiting it out to see if Biden falls on his face or not with gun control....

 

[enbloc]

Black Market Ammo... has a ring to it.

 

[PaulR]

I may sell a few boxes of 5.56 and pay down my mortgage.

 

[Yazz]

What shortage?

 

[cathouse01]

With anti-gun zealots taking control in Congress and White House shortly, thus unknown new restrictions and laws hanging over manufacturers heads. It would not be a wise decision to make large capital investments to increase capacity.

I’m sure that the real issue the ammo manufactures are looking at is ammo consumption, not ammo demand (i.e. sales). I’ve said this before, ammo has an almost unlimited shelf life. Right now, actual ammo consumption has decreased, as fewer and fewer people spend time at the range. Most folks purchasing ammo now are stockpiling it. When they start shooting again, they will likely consume ammo out of their excess reservers. The real question for ammo manufactures is what will ammo consumption look like going forward. They need to plan to consumption, not necessarily short term demand. What they are probably asking themselves is “Will all these new gun owners actually shoot their guns, or are they going to buy a box or two and then put the ammo and the gun in a drawer and forget about it?" Unless they are sure that there is actually going to be an increase in actual ammo CONSUMPTION there is no reason for them to invest in increased capacity.

 

[hminsky]

Do you have any idea how long it takes to increase manufacturing capacity in a meaningful way? I think I already covered this in another thread but it's not a quite as simple as you're making it out to be..... even if they agree that they need to blow the money on expansion you're looking at an expansion project that could take months for every factory to add production lines and get rid of bottlenecks.... not to mention a totally unrealistic that any of these companies would even think about making that decision until either the election or inauguration given the political bullshit in this industry.... hell they might even be waiting it out to see if Biden falls on his face or not with gun control....

I would really hope that the Democrats learned from experience with the AWB that putting in oppressive gun control laws costs them dearly in political capital. Isn;t
that what lost control of the congress for them?

 

[citoriguy]

With Biden in office and Dem controlled Senate/House, no manufacturer will be investing in any significant expansion of ammo production capacity.

I don’t see that as much as I see the new administration’s moves get tied up in the courts, an injunction against the Feds being issued, production going up moderately, and preparing for the 2022 midterms.

But that’s just me.

 

[AJK129]

What if they, and we, all just ignore that they say to stop selling online?

 

[citoriguy]

What if they, and we, all just ignore that they say to stop selling online?

Well, you’re asking business owners to potentially give up their livelihood. There’s that.

I also think it would be tough for the purchaser to plead ignorance, but IANAL.

 

[Woodsloafer]

It is reported that Biden has 30+ EOs to execute on his first official day in office, wouldn't surprise me if one (or more) was firearms-related. Now they have attempted "insurrection" by "terrorists" as a basis to go after gun owners, plus all the guns are still a "public health threat".

 

[AJK129]

It is reported that Biden has 30+ EOs to execute on his first official day in office, wouldn't surprise me if one (or more) was firearms-related. Now they have attempted "insurrection" by "terrorists" as a basis to go after gun owners, plus all the guns are still a "public health threat".

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security

 

[sschevy]

Do you have any idea how long it takes to increase manufacturing capacity in a meaningful way? I think I already covered this in another thread but it's not a quite as simple as you're making it out to be..... even if they agree that they need to blow the money on expansion you're looking at an expansion project that could take months for every factory to add production lines and get rid of bottlenecks.... not to mention a totally unrealistic that any of these companies would even think about making that decision until either the election or inauguration given the political bullshit in this industry.... hell they might even be waiting it out to see if Biden falls on his face or not with gun control....

Not to mention the permitting involved with any possible expansion , expanding manufacturing also means adding component storage and supply numbers

They’re not producing shoes , I’m sure the local zoning board and fire depts would have issues with any of these companies asking if they could increase their supply of powder and primers by 50%

there is no doubt in my mind they are limited to how much they can have on hand and are subject to inspection of said materials and how it is stored at any time

 

[Coyote33]

Anyone remember the NES member who wanted to start his own ammunition factory? It's in here somewhere.

 

[weekendracer]

Not to mention the permitting involved with any possible expansion , expanding manufacturing also means adding component storage and supply numbers

They’re not producing shoes , I’m sure the local zoning board and fire depts would have issues with any of these companies asking if they could increase their supply of powder and primers by 50%

there is no doubt in my mind they are limited to how much they can have on hand and are subject to inspection of said materials and how it is stored at any time

That's with the basic assumption there is room in the facility to expand production. I've been told I don't understand private sector business, but I seriously doubt these companies are paying (or bought) copious amounts of 'extra' space. Just like the hospitals being "OMG HOSPITALS ARE AT 98% CAPACITY" garbage, hospitals are always at those ranges of capacity. It's the business model. If it was really a big deal, put those temp hospitals back up. Not meant to be a thread hijack, but it's similar in scope to the problem.

 

[sschevy]

That's with the basic assumption there is room in the facility to expand production. I've been told I don't understand private sector business, but I seriously doubt these companies are paying (or bought) copious amounts of 'extra' space. Just like the hospitals being "OMG HOSPITALS ARE AT 98% CAPACITY" garbage, hospitals are always at those ranges of capacity. It's the business model. If it was really a big deal, put those temp hospitals back up. Not meant to be a thread hijack, but it's similar in scope to the problem.

100% truth right here

 

[Rob Boudrie]

That's with the basic assumption there is room in the facility to expand production. I've been told I don't understand private sector business, but I seriously doubt these companies are paying (or bought) copious amounts of 'extra' space. Just like the hospitals being "OMG HOSPITALS ARE AT 98% CAPACITY" garbage, hospitals are always at those ranges of capacity. It's the business model. If it was really a big deal, put those temp hospitals back up. Not meant to be a thread hijack, but it's similar in scope to the problem.

Not true. Hospitals adjust staffing based on the census, and sometimes even close wings or floors and cut nurses hours. There is often a hierarchy - burses who get full time unless there is a layoff, and a category that are subject to "no work this shift stay home" cancellations. Sometimes a RN has to work a few years as a cancellable until reaching non cancellable status.

 

[apander]

I guess this isn't a good time to look for Browning 9mm Long on line and ship to Ma.??

 

[AHM]

I would really hope that the Democrats learned from experience with the AWB that putting in oppressive gun control laws costs them dearly in political capital. Isn't that what lost control of the congress for them?

It isn't important what lost control of the Congress for them.
What's important is the reason why they think they lost control of the Congress.

 

[enbloc]

Anyone remember the NES member who wanted to start his own ammunition factory? It's in here somewhere.

I do. He might do better as a Primer manufacturer...



PRIMERS are the bottleneck...

Though there are dozens of major and minor ammunition manufacturers in the U.S., only four domestic manufacturers produce primers: Federal, CCI, Remington and Winchester. Those four firms feed the entire primer supply including ammunition sold to the military and law enforcement. Aug 12, 2020

 

[weekendracer]

Not true. Hospitals adjust staffing based on the census, and sometimes even close wings or floors and cut nurses hours. There is often a hierarchy - burses who get full time unless there is a layoff, and a category that are subject to "no work this shift stay home" cancellations. Sometimes a RN has to work a few years as a cancellable until reaching non cancellable status.

I found some graph that showed hospital occupancy rates going back however long. They were almost always at at least 60%. I wish I could find it. Either way, the point is, why would manufacturers invest in something that may not be useful for them in the near future. I don't think industrial grade loading machines are 'cheap'. Depending on where they are located, I can't say how much the floor space would cost.

Found a similar graphic, this one shows occupancy at mid 60%, I saw another one that was in the 80%, but that may have been a specific area or region. I'm sure there are tons of rural 'hospitals' that push the average down:

Hospital occupancy rate U.S. 1975-2017 | Statista

In 2017, the occupancy rate of hospitals in the U.S.

www.statista.com

I've seen the '94 scare, wasn't into guns back then but was an adult and remember the 'sky is falling' aspect of it, bought my first AR in '04 when the ban lifted. I was into guns during the '08 scare. Call me an optimist, but I bet the circle jerk for the first 2 years will be about getting single payer health care in place more so than getting rid of guns. There is enough distributed power in DC to stop most of the firearm legislation or at least stall it. The telltale will be the 2022 elections, if the democrats increase their power, that will be the scare that puts this nonsense up to '11'.

 

[mtnbiker26]

That's with the basic assumption there is room in the facility to expand production. I've been told I don't understand private sector business, but I seriously doubt these companies are paying (or bought) copious amounts of 'extra' space. Just like the hospitals being "OMG HOSPITALS ARE AT 98% CAPACITY" garbage, hospitals are always at those ranges of capacity. It's the business model. If it was really a big deal, put those temp hospitals back up. Not meant to be a thread hijack, but it's similar in scope to the problem.

Agreed. I work with my hands all day so I'm not a business guy, but my boss is. Our industry is in the same boat as the firearms industry...too little product and too many customers for at least the next year. We had a discussion about it and his perspective is that most production facilities don't have reserve capacity because they can't afford it. They don't have unused floor space, equipment and employees hanging around just in case. They have money going out, money coming in and they have to be efficient to make the numbers work. Investing millions of dollars to increase capacity a year from now is a huge risk. All they can really do is work more hours or run three shifts seven days a week.

 

[weekendracer]

Agreed. I work with my hands all day so I'm not a business guy, but my boss is. Our industry is in the same boat as the firearms industry...too little product and too many customers for at least the next year. We had a discussion about it and his perspective is that most production facilities don't have reserve capacity because they can't afford it. They don't have unused floor space, equipment and employees hanging around just in case. They have money going out, money coming in and they have to be efficient to make the numbers work. Investing millions of dollars to increase capacity a year from now is a huge risk. All they can really do is work more hours or run three shifts seven days a week.

Generally, that's a good spot to be in. The opposite means you are looking for another line of work

 

[Quite_Exasperated]

So my understanding is that all primer materials are inert until mixed..why not a do it yourself kit that includes a way to reform used primers...what could go wrong?

 

[drgrant]

Agreed. I work with my hands all day so I'm not a business guy, but my boss is. Our industry is in the same boat as the firearms industry...too little product and too many customers for at least the next year. We had a discussion about it and his perspective is that most production facilities don't have reserve capacity because they can't afford it. They don't have unused floor space, equipment and employees hanging around just in case. They have money going out, money coming in and they have to be efficient to make the numbers work. Investing millions of dollars to increase capacity a year from now is a huge risk. All they can really do is work more hours or run three shifts seven days a week.

I don't think its quite a risk as now, but if they are hedging they are going to sweat out the initial throes of this Biden shit show to see what happens, and then likely make bigger
decisions there. Those decisions take time to implement. Some are probably already planning adding lines right now, as we write here...

I think its a safe bet at least NOW there is going to be some longer term fortified demand. Even if you get a retention rate of like 1 out of say, 10 million shooters (new people since rona, basically) that's still a million new people to sell ammo to for the next however many years....

 

[weekendracer]

I don't think its quite a risk as now, but if they are hedging they are going to sweat out the initial throes of this Biden shit show to see what happens, and then likely make bigger
decisions there. Those decisions take time to implement. Some are probably already planning adding lines right now, as we write here...

I think its a safe bet at least NOW there is going to be some longer term fortified demand. Even if you get a retention rate of like 1 out of say, 10 million shooters (new people since rona, basically) that's still a million new people to sell ammo to for the next however many years....

That's my thinking, the only real competition for new shooters would be brand new manufacturing companies.

What's the startup capital (not even going into permits and regulation) needed to build an ammunition factory from the ground up? It seems like a hell of a risk not knowing how far into crazy this administration is going to go. The upside is there are a ton of new shooters out there, but how much are these people going to shoot? The risk/reward is beyond what I'm able to calculate. God help the new manufacturer if there are issues with their ammo on the first run. But people still buy Wolf, so in dire times almost anything sells.

On a side note, took the wife shooting this weekend. She brought it up and is asking about CCW classes.

 

[AJK129]

That's my thinking, the only real competition for new shooters would be brand new manufacturing companies.

What's the startup capital (not even going into permits and regulation) needed to build an ammunition factory from the ground up? It seems like a hell of a risk not knowing how far into crazy this administration is going to go. The upside is there are a ton of new shooters out there, but how much are these people going to shoot? The risk/reward is beyond what I'm able to calculate. God help the new manufacturer if there are issues with their ammo on the first run. But people still buy Wolf, so in dire times almost anything sells.

On a side note, took the wife shooting this weekend. She brought it up and is asking about CCW classes.

A US based steel cased company could be interesting, compete with the russian stuff

 

[Buck F]

Not true. Hospitals adjust staffing based on the census, and sometimes even close wings or floors and cut nurses hours. There is often a hierarchy - burses who get full time unless there is a layoff, and a category that are subject to "no work this shift stay home" cancellations. Sometimes a RN has to work a few years as a cancellable until reaching non cancellable status.

I found some graph that showed hospital occupancy rates going back however long. They were almost always at at least 60%. I wish I could find it. Either way, the point is, why would manufacturers invest in something that may not be useful for them in the near future. I don't think industrial grade loading machines are 'cheap'. Depending on where they are located, I can't say how much the floor space would cost.

Found a similar graphic, this one shows occupancy at mid 60%, I saw another one that was in the 80%, but that may have been a specific area or region. I'm sure there are tons of rural 'hospitals' that push the average down:

Hospital occupancy rate U.S. 1975-2017 | Statista

In 2017, the occupancy rate of hospitals in the U.S.

www.statista.com

I've seen the '94 scare, wasn't into guns back then but was an adult and remember the 'sky is falling' aspect of it, bought my first AR in '04 when the ban lifted. I was into guns during the '08 scare. Call me an optimist, but I bet the circle jerk for the first 2 years will be about getting single payer health care in place more so than getting rid of guns. There is enough distributed power in DC to stop most of the firearm legislation or at least stall it. The telltale will be the 2022 elections, if the democrats increase their power, that will be the scare that puts this nonsense up to '11'.

Hospitals are always adjusting and will close down floors/wings & consolidate patients when circumstances call for it. 60%-70% occupancy is pretty normal, when they go above 85%-90% they start to get worried, especially if they don't see it as a temporary thing or there's nowhere to divert patients to. They usually have contingency plans for adding capacity in emergencies, repurposing other areas of the hospital, etc. When hospitals stopped doing elective surgeries/procedures they had excess beds in the pre & post op surgery areas, for example. You throw a ventilator in there and voila, more ICU beds (I know that's oversimplifying it but that's basically what happened). Even some ORs were re-purposed although they never actually ended up using them in our hospital. Many hospitals are still performing far fewer elective surgeries/diagnostics than Pre-Covid.

 

[PaulR]

OP: Please correct thread title to read 2025, thank you.