Ammo industry: Won't see prices return to normal until 2023

Walmart had 325 rounds of Federal 22LR for $17.89 last week. More than a dozen boxes. Prices are coming down.
 
Wait until President Xi Den maneuvers into another shooting war to divert attention from the riots in big cities, the crappy economy, the big tax increases, and rising crime rates.
 
Prices are coming down a little bit. 9mm and .223 is under 50cpr for the first time since last fall I believe. And this time its moving in the right direction.
 
Garys said:
I'll believe it when FS and other shops start offering caselots of 9mm for $9.99/50.
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That's never happening, ever again. Not unless we get some kind of rapid deflation and/or the price of copper and lead plummet.

Before Covid took off new distributor prices were higher than that with the pending 2020 price increases.... and that was before anyone was 100% sure we were going into retard level lockdown.

We will be lucky if we ever see $250/K.
 
drgrant said:
That's never happening, ever again. Not unless we get some kind of rapid deflation and/or the price of copper and lead plummet.

Before Covid took off new distributor prices were higher than that with the pending 2020 price increases.... and that was before anyone was 100% sure we were going into retard level lockdown.

We will be lucky if we ever see $250/K.
Click to expand...

Hell, if it dropped down to $20 per box I'd be happy for now.
 
In 1980 mortgage rates were around 20%. We were looking at houses and that put a lot of places out of reach. Then, for about three days, the rate dropped to 12%. My father in law told us to grab that rate because we'd never see a rate as low as that in our lifetimes.

Same thing with ammunition, it's a commodity and it's really difficult to predict the future. That's why people lose money on commodities options.

People seem to have forgotten how cheap ammunition got up to about a year ago. Maybe it will never happen again, but then again, maybe it might.

drgrant said:
That's never happening, ever again. Not unless we get some kind of rapid deflation and/or the price of copper and lead plummet.

Before Covid took off new distributor prices were higher than that with the pending 2020 price increases.... and that was before anyone was 100% sure we were going into retard level lockdown.

We will be lucky if we ever see $250/K.
Click to expand...
 
drgrant said:
That's never happening, ever again. Not unless we get some kind of rapid deflation and/or the price of copper and lead plummet.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Probably not going to happen for a couple of years at best. China just consumes way too much raw materials even during a pandemic, and India, a prior large exporter of these metals, is now a net importer after shutting down a couple large plants over health concerns. Copper prices are projected to only increase for at least a year if not two.

But, the current increase in raw commodity price does not align with the current increase in ammo prices, so I'm hoping maybe a 10-15% decrease in ammo costs from current prices in 2022. That would actually be a win. Here's hoping India says "F-it" and re-opens copper refining plants.
 
Garys said:
In 1980 mortgage rates were around 20%. We were looking at houses and that put a lot of places out of reach. Then, for about three days, the rate dropped to 12%. My father in law told us to grab that rate because we'd never see a rate as low as that in our lifetimes.

Same thing with ammunition, it's a commodity and it's really difficult to predict the future. That's why people lose money on commodities options.

People seem to have forgotten how cheap ammunition got up to about a year ago. Maybe it will never happen again, but then again, maybe it might.
Click to expand...
Let's instead say that ammo has become like a commodity -- not literally a commodity. If it was possible for speculators to control futures contracts on ammo, the price of ammo would make lumber prices feel like blow-out bargain sale prices.
 
ReluctantDecoy said:
Agreed. Probably not going to happen for a couple of years at best. China just consumes way too much raw materials even during a pandemic, and India, a prior large exporter of these metals, is now a net importer after shutting down a couple large plants over health concerns. Copper prices are projected to only increase for at least a year if not two.

But, the current increase in raw commodity price does not align with the current increase in ammo prices, so I'm hoping maybe a 10-15% decrease in ammo costs from current prices in 2022. That would actually be a win. Here's hoping India says "F-it" and re-opens copper refining plants.
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Not a chance in hell. That country is getting railed by other strains and even the massive numbers they have been posting have been confirmed to be substantially underreported.
 
Garys said:
In 1980 mortgage rates were around 20%. We were looking at houses and that put a lot of places out of reach. Then, for about three days, the rate dropped to 12%. My father in law told us to grab that rate because we'd never see a rate as low as that in our lifetimes.

Same thing with ammunition, it's a commodity and it's really difficult to predict the future. That's why people lose money on commodities options.

People seem to have forgotten how cheap ammunition got up to about a year ago. Maybe it will never happen again, but then again, maybe it might.
Click to expand...

 
Garys said:
In 1980 mortgage rates were around 20%. We were looking at houses and that put a lot of places out of reach. Then, for about three days, the rate dropped to 12%. My father in law told us to grab that rate because we'd never see a rate as low as that in our lifetimes.

Same thing with ammunition, it's a commodity and it's really difficult to predict the future. That's why people lose money on commodities options.

People seem to have forgotten how cheap ammunition got up to about a year ago. Maybe it will never happen again, but then again, maybe it might.
Click to expand...
Housing is a horrible comparison because of the artificial nature of the product in the level of government influence that influences pricing. There's no government subsidized loans for ammunition. The other part you're forgetting is the demand static demand will be larger than it was in the past. Let's say even 90% of these new gun owners crap right out that's still basically a million more people you have to feed ammo to.... [laugh] Good luck with that.

It literally took the entire Obama admin and a year or two of trump to push it below 200.

Remember in 04 the retail bench was about $100/1000 rounds. Once Obamascare 1 happened that price was never coming back. We were lucky to see it for 200. Every time there is one of these shithouse deals it gets worse. The low water mark creeps up.

It also doesn't help matters that we have dramatic inflation. It's concealed but there if you look hard enough. Money doesn't go as far as it used to.
 
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While they may not be able to for speculators to control prices on the finished product, they speculate on lead, copper, and brass.

NewGuyRay said:
Let's instead say that ammo has become like a commodity -- not literally a commodity. If it was possible for speculators to control futures contracts on ammo, the price of ammo would make lumber prices feel like blow-out bargain sale prices.
Click to expand...
 
andrew1220 said:
Yes.
In my basement View attachment 486889










I wish. I’ve got a good bunch to last years but not that many😂
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tenor.gif
 
andrew1220 said:
Not sure if it's a bad sign to see Federal adding $2 to the price of a box of 9mm. Just last week it was $26.99 now $28.99....
www.federalpremium.com

Buy American Eagle Handgun for USD 25.99 | Federal Ammunition

Shopping for the American Eagle Handgun - Learn more about the latest American Eagle and other hunting or shooting gear at Federal Ammunition.
www.federalpremium.com www.federalpremium.com
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I came here to post this. They quietly raised prices over the long weekend. How can it be interpreted as anything but a bad sign?
 

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