When you think SHTF, what are you thinking?

[Tackdriver VillenTactical]

So what do you think will be the event that is SHTF? I guess it means different things to different people (i.e. a nuclear or natural diaster). I don't give it much thought and I know a lot of you do. So what do you see actually/realistically happening that requires one to stock pile a years worth of food?

Dave

 

[hminsky]

bird flu

 

[rcinma]

General ritoing, after food prices skyrocket and supplies dwindle due to disruption in the supply chain or transportation industries.

The overly-entitled have-nots trying to take from the haves because they were too lazy/stupid to prepare and provide for themselves.

 

[appraiser]

SHTF in my world is any intrusion or trespass on my property and any instance of civil unrest or natural disaster where we are left to our own devices to protect ourselves and our loved ones from forces that would do us harm.

When we had the ice storm in December here in southern NH I was prepared ahead of time with a generator , fuel, food and water , and slept every night with one eye open and a loaded gun at my side.
There were multiple incidents of house breaks and generator thefts in our area. Needless to say I was prepared to ride out the storm because the S had HTF

 

[drgrant]

I think probability wise the greatest chance for SHTF is another natural disaster. Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, Ice Storms, etc... (And varying sources, I've heard MA is about due for an earthquake.... not sure if it's true or not... ) causing temporary (but very annoing, debilitating) disruptions in terms of things like power. The ice storm we had this past winter in north central MA gave me a taste of that crap.

-Mike

 

[Eta-Carinae]

SHTF to me = The breakdown of civil order and the effectiveness of emergency responder services, regardless of the cause. It is the point at which the lawful, lacking intent to commit a crime, are forced to press or cross the line between order and chaos by those that have the intent to commit a crime, in order to survive.

The onset of a barter economy, possibly to the point of surpassing the monetized economy in isolated markets, is not necessarily a SHTF scenario - that is just a response to suppressed capitalization (example: landscaping/snowplow operators switching to bartering because their customers can't afford to pay).

Natural disaster or a key infrastructure failure are plausible causes. In the natural disaster realm, I think winter weather (ice storms impacting power/gas to the point that people can't survive in their homes) is more likely than summer (we don't get tornados) or spring (flooding impacts looters the same as it impacts residents). The ice storm is an excellent example.

The other hollywood causes - invasion, plague, interstellar threat, zombies, etc., range from unlikely to impossible. Political upheaval seems unlikely even among the strongest of opinions - the extreme ends of our political spectrum are just too marginalized to get enough momentum.

Crime waves and irrational mass hysteria is more likely.

 

[Eta-Carinae]

Crime waves-

Metrowest region has had a number of fake bombs and fake bomb threats to create distractions for law enforcement in order to stage bank robberies. If that trend continued, or they used an actual bomb, I could see mass panic erupt in isolated events. Think along the lines of the cockroaches episode of The X-Files (War of the Coprophages) or the hansel & gretel episode of Buffy The Vampire Slayer.

One rumor (in the X-Files, four unrelated deaths that had a coincidental correlation with the presence of cockroaches sends a town into panic over the belief that there's an invasion of man-killing roaches; in Buffy the Vampire Slayer, a supernatural being creates two murdered children to throw a town into a mass hysteria panic of the occult in order to feast upon the energy of the panic) or one isolated occurance of real crime can be spun by media hysteria into starting the breakdown of order.

Take for example the recent case of two men posing as law enforcement beating up and robbing a victim. Come up with one event where some white girl claims she was raped by a fake cop in a fake police car in order to hide her ongoing relationship with her (boyfriend, teacher, coach, etc.) from her parents and you'll have every lead footed SWF on the pike refusing to pull over for the statie that just clocked 'em going 80.

 

[glostamon]

We could surmise hundreds of hypothetical SHTF scenerios.IMO history is bound to repeat itself,this could include but not limited to the following plausable situations
1.Economic /Stock market collapse(great depression,lack of 401k)
2.Fuel shortage/crisis(70's opec embargo,oil @ $170 barrel (last summer)
3.Natural disasters(Katrina/Blizzard of '78, flooding in Fargo,Drought.tornados),
4.Civil unrest/dissorder socio class divide (Watts & LA riots,widspread major cime)
5.Acts of terrorism (foriegn & domestic) (no examples necessary)

There is no "Blueprint" for SHTF planning. Evaluate YOUR personal situation & needs,and outline an individual plan stick to it,be sure to revaluate periodically, formulating a budget,and ommiting some unnecessary luxury items.
Theres an old saying "Its never to late".This does not apply to WSHTF planning!
It's better to have 196 rolls of toiletpaper than bein' on the hopper holding an empty cardboard tube.

 

[pbearperry]

A SHTF scenerio to me would be Obama getting a second term in office.

 

[Prepper]

There are lots of things going on in the world, many of which could cause a SHTF situation in little or no time. There's no good way to predict what will be first.

Lately I've been most concerned about SHTF being caused by our own gov't, whether intentionally or through severe ineptitude. It is likely going to involve shortages of food, rioting people, etc. It could even be as simple as them demanding entry into all our homes to install energy monitoring devices, in which case I would have to refuse -- so instant SHTF situation for me.

I've almost forgotten about the terrorist threat, although that's still out there.

 

[RickG]

Basically for me. It would start with a wide spread loss of power over an extended period of time. I am talking multiple weeks/months. Society would break down further and further as food and fuel sources dried up and people became more and more desperate. Look at parts of Africa where they have shortages of food, water and transportation. We would not be to far off of that situation if there was not power in the Northeast for a number of months.

Kind of scarry........

 

[Raoul Duke]

Month after month of declining real estate prices in tandem with plummeting 401Ks...They collide with unemployment which is now pushing 20% in MA and 25%+ in much of the rest of the country.

The streets fill with angry sheeple, egged on by the more intrepid... The instigators gnash their teeth with blind range at the precipitous drop in domestic living standards. Food riots begin in the late summer as it becomes clear that the summer's crop yield will fall short...this drives up commodity prices to untenable highs.

When producers begin to slash oil made available to the US market (Chaves and OPEC clients) the hungry, the wretched, they begin to realize what's happened. Winter's deadly chill hides behind autumn's door.

But it's too late.

The treasury has long since printed its way out of the picture and the all that remains is a pair on wooden nickles on the floor of The Fed. There are no retirement funds anymore. 401ks are gone. Pensions and the firms that once provided them have sunk in the season of economic malaise.

People are hungry

People are angry

People are powerless

The government, possessed of keen understanding in this phase will create bread and circus to keep the masses placated. An enemy will be created; The enemy will be Domestic Terrorism. A steady propaganda feed will brand the newest danger like a new car fresh from the factories of the now defunct American Auto Industry.

"Terrorists have guns! Do your neighbors?" Call Toll-free: TURNTHEMIN (800) 555-1234

Flags, perhaps the Culpepper image will be used as a visual cue to link political prisoners with violent but conventional offenders. Law enforcement, concerned about their collective retirement will loose the last vestiges of civilian connection before becoming storm troopers of the state power machine on par with their predecessors. Members of the military both notable and rank and file, will continue to declare allegiance to the constitution and the people of the US. Most will be simply uncooperative. Some will be quietly "dismissed." The government will be careful never to create a situation where the direct refusal of orders will be both noticeable and recorded. A willingness to carry out each mission will become selection criteria under new force "reorganization" initiatives...

And, as always, the killing will begin with the most brutish of tools.

 

[Jose]

Month after month of declining real estate prices in tandem with plummeting 401Ks...They collide with unemployment which is now pushing 20% in MA and 25%+ in much of the rest of the country.

The streets fill with angry sheeple, egged on by the more intrepid... The instigators gnash their teeth with blind range at the precipitous drop in domestic living standards. Food riots begin in the late summer as it becomes clear that the summer's crop yield will fall short...this drives up commodity prices to untenable highs.

When producers begin to slash oil made available to the US market (Chaves and OPEC clients) the hungry, the wretched, they begin to realize what's happened. Winter's deadly chill hides behind autumn's door.

But it's too late.

The treasury has long since printed its way out of the picture and the all that remains is a pair on wooden nickles on the floor of The Fed. There are no retirement funds anymore. 401ks are gone. Pensions and the firms that once provided them have sunk in the season of economic malaise.

People are hungry

People are angry

People are powerless

The government, possessed of keen understanding in this phase will create bread and circus to keep the masses placated. An enemy will be created; The enemy will be Domestic Terrorism. A steady propaganda feed will brand the newest danger like a new car fresh from the factories of the now defunct American Auto Industry.

"Terrorists have guns! Do your neighbors?" Call Toll-free: TURNTHEMIN (800) 555-1234

Flags, perhaps the Culpepper image will be used as a visual cue to link political prisoners with violent but conventional offenders. Law enforcement, concerned about their collective retirement will loose the last vestiges of civilian connection before becoming storm troopers of the state power machine on par with their predecessors. Members of the military both notable and rank and file, will continue to declare allegiance to the constitution and the people of the US. Most will be simply uncooperative. Some will be quietly "dismissed." The government will be careful never to create a situation where the direct refusal of orders will be both noticeable and recorded. A willingness to carry out each mission will become selection criteria under new force "reorganization" initiatives...

And, as always, the killing will begin with the most brutish of tools.

You're forgetting the bands of patriot death squads that will stalk government aparatchiks.

There are not enough bodyguards to go around.

 

[tele_mark]

Damn your writing skills.....

Month after month of declining real estate prices in tandem with plummeting 401Ks...They collide with unemployment which is now pushing 20% in MA and 25%+ in much of the rest of the country.

The streets fill with angry sheeple, egged on by the more intrepid... The instigators gnash their teeth with blind range at the precipitous drop in domestic living standards. Food riots begin in the late summer as it becomes clear that the summer's crop yield will fall short...this drives up commodity prices to untenable highs.

When producers begin to slash oil made available to the US market (Chaves and OPEC clients) the hungry, the wretched, they begin to realize what's happened. Winter's deadly chill hides behind autumn's door.

But it's too late.

The treasury has long since printed its way out of the picture and the all that remains is a pair on wooden nickles on the floor of The Fed. There are no retirement funds anymore. 401ks are gone. Pensions and the firms that once provided them have sunk in the season of economic malaise.

People are hungry

People are angry

People are powerless

The government, possessed of keen understanding in this phase will create bread and circus to keep the masses placated. An enemy will be created; The enemy will be Domestic Terrorism. A steady propaganda feed will brand the newest danger like a new car fresh from the factories of the now defunct American Auto Industry.

"Terrorists have guns! Do your neighbors?" Call Toll-free: TURNTHEMIN (800) 555-1234

Flags, perhaps the Culpepper image will be used as a visual cue to link political prisoners with violent but conventional offenders. Law enforcement, concerned about their collective retirement will loose the last vestiges of civilian connection before becoming storm troopers of the state power machine on par with their predecessors. Members of the military both notable and rank and file, will continue to declare allegiance to the constitution and the people of the US. Most will be simply uncooperative. Some will be quietly "dismissed." The government will be careful never to create a situation where the direct refusal of orders will be both noticeable and recorded. A willingness to carry out each mission will become selection criteria under new force "reorganization" initiatives...

And, as always, the killing will begin with the most brutish of tools.

 

[freedom2012]

The terrorist lurk at this moment. They bide thier time for the next attack. They will wait until it seems like we might just recover from the economic demise and then they unleash not just one large attack in a major city, but multiple attacks on economic targets. Combine this with Iran getting close to having nuclear capabilities and most of the civil unrest and fear above will materialize. Obama will be as effective as a neutered chihahua.

They will test Obama, and it will be effective. What confidence is left in Obama from the moderates will disappear and I will head north to my rural escape.

 

[Raoul Duke]

You're forgetting the bands of patriot death squads that will stalk government aparatchiks.

yes, I did.

There are not enough bodyguards to go around.

No, no there aren't. +1

 

[matt]

Month after month of declining real estate prices in tandem with plummeting 401Ks...They collide with unemployment which is now pushing 20% in MA and 25%+ in much of the rest of the country.

The streets fill with angry sheeple, egged on by the more intrepid... The instigators gnash their teeth with blind range at the precipitous drop in domestic living standards. Food riots begin in the late summer as it becomes clear that the summer's crop yield will fall short...this drives up commodity prices to untenable highs.

When producers begin to slash oil made available to the US market (Chaves and OPEC clients) the hungry, the wretched, they begin to realize what's happened. Winter's deadly chill hides behind autumn's door.

But it's too late.

The treasury has long since printed its way out of the picture and the all that remains is a pair on wooden nickles on the floor of The Fed. There are no retirement funds anymore. 401ks are gone. Pensions and the firms that once provided them have sunk in the season of economic malaise.

People are hungry

People are angry

People are powerless

The government, possessed of keen understanding in this phase will create bread and circus to keep the masses placated. An enemy will be created; The enemy will be Domestic Terrorism. A steady propaganda feed will brand the newest danger like a new car fresh from the factories of the now defunct American Auto Industry.

"Terrorists have guns! Do your neighbors?" Call Toll-free: TURNTHEMIN (800) 555-1234

Flags, perhaps the Culpepper image will be used as a visual cue to link political prisoners with violent but conventional offenders. Law enforcement, concerned about their collective retirement will loose the last vestiges of civilian connection before becoming storm troopers of the state power machine on par with their predecessors. Members of the military both notable and rank and file, will continue to declare allegiance to the constitution and the people of the US. Most will be simply uncooperative. Some will be quietly "dismissed." The government will be careful never to create a situation where the direct refusal of orders will be both noticeable and recorded. A willingness to carry out each mission will become selection criteria under new force "reorganization" initiatives...

And, as always, the killing will begin with the most brutish of tools.

I think the key of this (very well written) scenerio is that it happens slowly, over time. I don't think we'll see a sudden change, but rather a slow decline. The S#!% is hitting the fan now... bit by bit... splatter by splatter...

 

[Youradolt]

You guys are forgeting about ZOMBIES

 

[matt]

You guys are forgeting about ZOMBIES

RD got 'em:

The streets fill with angry sheeple, egged on by the more intrepid... The instigators gnash their teeth with blind range at the precipitous drop in domestic living standards.

 

[AFD2787]

Ebola.... You think I am kidding, all it really would take would be some form of either bioterrorism or a lab leak with a virus with a delayed incubation period. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/index.htm everything on this page scares me, and while yes government collapse is a scary scenario and it would drastically change the way people live my family moved here from a third world country, and even there life still goes on, so I think SHTF is something which directly puts the survival of humanity in jeopardy.

 

[Jose]

When you think SHTF, what are you thinking?

 

[glostamon]

ARBY's fast food called.They want their hat back.

 

[Twigg]

We're damm near SHTF right now.

 

[oilburner]

To me, I'll know the SHTF when I'm afraid to leave my family home alone or let them go somewhere by themselves... for what ever reasons. IMO, it'll probably relate to history and government.

 

[Madball13]

Basically for me. It would start with a wide spread loss of power over an extended period of time. I am talking multiple weeks/months. Society would break down further and further as food and fuel sources dried up and people became more and more desperate. Look at parts of Africa where they have shortages of food, water and transportation. We would not be to far off of that situation if there was not power in the Northeast for a number of months.

Kind of scarry........

Like a solar flare that cooks transformers and would take months to repair.

 

[rg1283]

Like a solar flare that cooks transformers and would take months to repair.

Elecromagnetic Pulse (EMP). Scares me. Anything else is going to be gradual (which is sad because for the most part gradual things possiblly could be stopped whatever it is)


http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf

7MB PDF file, but good reading. Like the Effects of Nuclear War 70s report.

I am mostly prepared for natural disasters the best I can considering my situation with work and school. I have enough stuff in the car for 3 days etc.

 

[Kid Presentable]

SHTF to me = The breakdown of civil order and the effectiveness of emergency responder services, regardless of the cause. It is the point at which the lawful, lacking intent to commit a crime, are forced to press or cross the line between order and chaos by those that have the intent to commit a crime, in order to survive.

thats my SHTF moment...that and zombies...zombies man, creep me out

 

[wolf223]

i will be armed to the "T" and thinking: the shit just hit the fan

 

[jkeeley1]

"Fire Sale": A crippling cyber-warfare attack on the infrastructure of the United States that would disrupt all power, public utilities, water, traffic, and other computer-controlled systems. The term is used because "everything must go." It is based on three steps. In the first step, all of the transport network is taken down; in the second step, banks, and the stock exchange are hacked, crashed and then all the information is washed; and in the third step, nuclear facilities, military defense systems and all the utilities are manipulated and disconnected. The theory is that if major infrastructure is disabled one system at a time, it will eventually be able to recover, but if all systems are destroyed simultaneously, the entire system will be destroyed without chance of recovery.

It may be a hollywood creation, but who knows, it may be possible. I know there are probably several layers of system redundancies and offshore backups, etc. but when you break it down our entire modern civilization is held together by little bits of electronic data, as a civilization we really do have all of our eggs in one basket.

oh and +1 to the zombies

 

[Migmojo]

We're screwed no matter what the cause, just keep stocking up on supplies.