What the Great Ammunition Shortage Says About Inflation

[DW357]

Places like TS and about a half a dozen other remotes that sell ammo didnt even exist during Sandy Hook. (or if they did, I dont remember them). IMHO a lot of these places like TS and
some of the other vendors discussed here, in the past 10 years are basically taking over the role that WalMArt used to occupy for aggressively discounted ammo. "good". I'd rather just click buttons and get what I want

TSUSA was around during SH. I was working in CT for months in 2012 (and the day of SH) and visited their "shop" in Farmington. Ammo stacked to the ceiling in a rather small building. 1 or 2 office people working at a computer just as you walk in. Bought a bunch of 38 spl and 357 magnum from them at that location. This is the google street view of their old location - circled in red....


Fast forward to 2016, I was in CT again for work and I visited their new location in Southington - was YUGE! I spoke to the office lady there to pickup some ammo and told her how much they've changed since 2012. She said something along the lines of "yes the last few years have been good to us"....
This was a photo I took of their facility in 2016. BIG difference LOL

 

[DJBrad]

That is amazing. I see it is now $359.80/case (but out of stock).

Do you have a rough date on that price? I'm wondering how the heck I missed it?

That was 8/21/2019

 

[DJBrad]

That was 8/21/2019

That late summer imho was the biggest dip in ammo prices for a long time before and forever after.

 

[DJBrad]

Another purchase with the Vista rebate from 2/2019. Cases of xm193 were $255 after all was said and done. The 9mm was a little bit pricier than the late summer Blazer purchase but it’s Federal.

 

[Knob Creek]

This is not unlike the gas shortage in 1973. Inflation under Jimmy Carter was running rampant. Gas became in short supply. Some allege that tankers were lying off the US Coast adding to the shortages. Eventually gas became available once again but prices never came back down to the under 50 cents a gallon price that they once were.

 

[DJBrad]

This is not unlike the gas shortage in 1973. Inflation under Jimmy Carter was running rampant. Gas became in short supply. Some allege that tankers were lying off the US Coast adding to the shortages. Eventually gas became available once again but prices never came back down to the under 50 cents a gallon price that they once were.

Classic Price Inflation which can easily be tracked for maaaaaaaany years.

Of course right now a cup of common brand coffee is about $2.59 now. This can easily be correlated with an inverse chart of the USD.

 

[EJFudd]

That was 8/21/2019

That late summer imho was the biggest dip in ammo prices for a long time before and forever after.

Yeah, I was asleep at the switch prior to the Walmart El Paso shooting (August 3, 2019) and, more importantly, their subsequent decision to pull all evil ammo from their stores on September 3, 2019. That latter date really marks the first indication we had of what would later become the 2020/2021 ammo crisis. At that point, I was fat, dumb and happy with a good, healthy, long-term supply of ammo... or so I thought.

 

[Pyromancer]

Okay, I've got to ask because I watched TSUSA like a hawk pre-crisis and I didn't ever see any domestic manufacturer brass-cased 9mm for $170/case delivered without applying the membership discount. May I ask... Which brand and type ammo are you talking about here?

This was the cheapest I’ve ever seen it since I’ve been shooting. That price didn’t include the Vista outdoors rebates either which dropped it below $150 for a case delivered. The deal was 8% off a prime and no Ma sales tax at that time.
View attachment 562792

Yes, this is steel, but the exact same stuff they sold at Walmart.

There was also brass (federal black pack IIRC) for the same price with crazy rebates going on also.

 

[DJBrad]

View attachment 562900
Yes, this is steel, but the exact same stuff they sold at Walmart.

There was also brass (federal black pack IIRC) for the same price with crazy rebates going on also.

I missed everyone of those Black pack deals back when they were running.

 

[Woodsloafer]

That late summer imho was the biggest dip in ammo prices for a long time before and forever after.

Yep, good times, I stacked it deep during those lows, learned my lesson after Sandy Hook.

 

[67ray]

View attachment 562900
Yes, this is steel, but the exact same stuff they sold at Walmart.

There was also brass (federal black pack IIRC) for the same price with crazy rebates going on also.

This thread is like a bunch of old geezers on the porch in rocking chairs saying how cheap everything used to be. Oh the good ol days

 

[SKumar]

View attachment 562900

My regular was buying cases of Wolf 9mm for $128 + tax. It basically came down to 13 cents per round of 9mm. 10 shots would only be $1.30. I used to invite friends to the range and blow 4-500 rounds easy.

 

[Pyromancer]

My regular was buying cases of Wolf 9mm for $128 + tax. It basically came down to 13 cents per round of 9mm. 10 shots would only be $1.30. I used to invite friends to the range and blow 4-500 rounds easy.

You win. Srsly. I dont recall ever hitting that low.

 

[SKumar]

You win. Srsly. I dont recall ever hitting that low.

Not long ago. The days of cheap ammo are over though. Check out the 223 for 19 cents a round. I used to go nuts with that stuff. Now the old geezers that used to buy AKs for $250, THOSE were the days.

 

[drgrant]

You win. Srsly. I dont recall ever hitting that low.

Probably because you werent buying gutter trash and wasnt paying attention to the pricing. That said I would rather shoot Tula or Wolf than some of the worst 9mm
brass that ever existed. For example that perfecta shit everyone used to buy from Walmart...... so.... f***ing... weak. If Fiocchi actually made that, not their finest hour.

Not long ago. The days of cheap ammo are over though. Check out the 223 for 19 cents a round. I used to go nuts with that stuff. Now the old geezers that used to buy AKs for $250, THOSE were the days.


View attachment 562950

You could buy wasrs at FS for $259 and cases of GT 762 x 39 for $76 in 2004-5 or so Brass 9mm was $120/k too, sometimes less. I used to buy win super unleaded from FS for $70/500 loaf.

 

[Deleted member 67409]

This forum is like a bunch of old geezers on the porch in rocking chairs saying how cheap everything used to be. Oh the good ol days

FTFY.

 

[EJFudd]

Yes, this is steel, but the exact same stuff they sold at Walmart.

There was also brass (federal black pack IIRC) for the same price with crazy rebates going on also.

Member djbradles answered my question for you. No need to try to convince me that Russian steel is the same thing as domestic brass.

 

[EJFudd]

Yep, good times, I stacked it deep during those lows, learned my lesson after Sandy Hook.

One would hope that we all did. I certainly thought that I had. Yet who among us can honestly say that we did no ammo shopping at all (successful or otherwise) from September of 2019 to the present because we were sooooooo darn perfectly prepared?

 

[Woodsloafer]

One would hope that we all did. I certainly thought that I had. Yet who among us can honestly say that we did no ammo shopping at all (successful or otherwise) from September of 2019 to the present because we were sooooooo darn perfectly prepared?

I've actually done quite a bit of buying since but pretty much all has been private sales and I have done pretty good stocking up and maintaining stocks doing that. It's surprising how many people have ammo sitting around but no longer shoot or have guns. I'm also fortunate in that I have a local dealer that funnels a lot of ammo to me that he buys from people selling collections, he knows I will show up with cash immediately if it is something I have a gun chambered in.

 

[EJFudd]

I've actually done quite a bit of buying since but pretty much all has been private sales and I have done pretty good stocking up and maintaining stocks doing that. It's surprising how many people have ammo sitting around but no longer shoot or have guns. I'm also fortunate in that I have a local dealer that funnels a lot of ammo to me that he buys from people selling collections, he knows I will show up with cash immediately if it is something I have a gun chambered in.

And I don't blame you a bit. But then what does it mean when we say that we "learned our lesson" after Sandy Hook (or that we should have learned our lesson after Sandy Hook)?

Don't mind me. I'm just sitting here making trouble this morning contemplating the topic of this thread.

 

[Woodsloafer]

And I don't blame you a bit. But then what does it mean when we say that we "learned our lesson" after Sandy Hook (or that we should have learned our lesson after Sandy Hook)?

Don't mind me. I'm just sitting here making trouble this morning contemplating the topic of this thread.

I didn't say that "we learned our lesson" I said that I learned my lesson and that was my incorrect assumption that ammo would always be plentiful and reasonably priced. I got caught with low supplies during the period after Sandy Hook and made up my mind to buy when prices were low so I could make it through the "bad times" and not have to pay rape prices or not be able to get it at all.

 

[SKumar]

I used to buy win super unleaded from FS for $70/500 loaf.

 

[drgrant]

I shit you not that's what it was called. It was a clean firing ammo. I used to feed it to my P7M8 to keep the gunk down.

 

[DW357]

For anyone interested, here's a link to Vista Outdoors' 2021 Final Annual Report.

https://s24.q4cdn.com/982007713/files/doc_downloads/irw/2021/Final-Annual-Report-prepared-for-IR-carousel-6.15.21.pdf

Page 34 briefly talks about inflation....

Inflation and Commodity Price Risk
In management’s opinion, inflation has not had a significant impact upon the results of our operations. However, we have been impacted by changes in the prices of raw materials used in production as well as changes in oil and energy costs. In particular, the prices of commodity metals, such as copper, zinc, and lead continue to be volatile. These prices generally impact our Shooting Sports Segment. See Note 4, Derivative Financial Instruments, to the consolidated financial statements included in this Annual Report for additional information.

We have a strategic sourcing, pricing and hedging strategy to mitigate risk from commodity price fluctuation. We will continue to evaluate the need for future price changes in light of these trends, our competitive landscape, and our financial results. If our sourcing and pricing strategy is unable to offset impacts of the commodity price fluctuations, our future results from operations and cash flows would be materially impacted.

Also on page 34 and page 55 (do a word search), is where they mention Walmart! @drgrant @**DRB**
Dependence on Key Customers; Concentration of Credit

No customer contributed more than 10% of sales during fiscal year 2021; however, Walmart accounted for approximately 13% and 14% of our total fiscal years 2020 and 2019 sales, respectively. No other single customer contributed more than 10% of our sales in fiscal years 2020 and 2019. If a key customer fails to meet payment obligations, our operating results and financial condition could be adversely affected.

Walmart accounted for 18% and 13% of the total trade receivables balance as of March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. No other customer represented more than 10% of total trade receivables balance as of March 31, 2021 and 2020.

 

[Rate_of_Twist]

For anyone interested, here's a link to Vista Outdoors' 2021 Final Annual Report.

https://s24.q4cdn.com/982007713/files/doc_downloads/irw/2021/Final-Annual-Report-prepared-for-IR-carousel-6.15.21.pdf

Page 34 briefly talks about inflation....

Inflation and Commodity Price Risk
In management’s opinion, inflation has not had a significant impact upon the results of our operations. However, we have been impacted by changes in the prices of raw materials used in production as well as changes in oil and energy costs. In particular, the prices of commodity metals, such as copper, zinc, and lead continue to be volatile. These prices generally impact our Shooting Sports Segment. See Note 4, Derivative Financial Instruments, to the consolidated financial statements included in this Annual Report for additional information.

We have a strategic sourcing, pricing and hedging strategy to mitigate risk from commodity price fluctuation. We will continue to evaluate the need for future price changes in light of these trends, our competitive landscape, and our financial results. If our sourcing and pricing strategy is unable to offset impacts of the commodity price fluctuations, our future results from operations and cash flows would be materially impacted.

Also on page 34 and page 55 (do a word search), is where they mention Walmart! @drgrant @**DRB**
Dependence on Key Customers; Concentration of Credit

No customer contributed more than 10% of sales during fiscal year 2021; however, Walmart accounted for approximately 13% and 14% of our total fiscal years 2020 and 2019 sales, respectively. No other single customer contributed more than 10% of our sales in fiscal years 2020 and 2019. If a key customer fails to meet payment obligations, our operating results and financial condition could be adversely affected.

Walmart accounted for 18% and 13% of the total trade receivables balance as of March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. No other customer represented more than 10% of total trade receivables balance as of March 31, 2021 and 2020.

So insignificant they are mentioned by name... Why? Because the single largest retailer, with the best brick and mortar coverage and most advanced distribution has a significant impact on pricing in the market place!

 

[drgrant]

So insignificant they are mentioned by name... Why? Because the single largest retailer, with the best brick and mortar coverage and most advanced distribution has a significant impact on pricing in the market place!

Lol sure they are $ significant. I still don't think they did much in actually/defining/ the ground price of ammo though. Other sellers could still charge more (and did, routinely) because Walmart was often cleaned out. Low prices with little or no product on the shelf to show for it is not terribly meaningful. Do you really think dists were panicking at the feet of Walmart when the market was under demand strain? Believe whatever you want, though. lol. I just don't think the gas station that can you 5 gallons of gas a week at $1.50 a gallon is a huge influence. Yeah it's a nice treat but it's not making the other gas stations quiver in fear very much. They're not going to cut their prices over it. Walmarts price influence really only mattered when product came back, I can agree that they likely helped burn off sticky price faster. In that short window, dealers actually had to compete with Walmart or they would sell very little. (Walmarts had stock more consistently once demand died off). I can buy into that. Walmart did reduce the amount of Cosby action happening in the margins/transition phases of a panic. Maybe even blocked some "gaming" by distributors in limited cases. But while its actually full retard? Meh.

Look what happened this last go around.... prices fell like 300 bucks in a year, and Walmart is basically irrelevant outside of 22lr and 12G target ammo. Market forces still work even without the supposed 200 lb "20%" gorilla in the room.

 

[Pyromancer]

Lol sure they are $ significant. I still don't think they did much in actually/defining/ the ground price of ammo though. Other sellers could still charge more (and did, routinely) because Walmart was often cleaned out. Low prices with little or no product on the shelf to show for it is not terribly meaningful. Do you really think dists were panicking at the feet of Walmart when the market was under demand strain? Believe whatever you want, though. lol. I just don't think the gas station that can you 5 gallons of gas a week at $1.50 a gallon is a huge influence. Yeah it's a nice treat but it's not making the other gas stations quiver in fear very much. They're not going to cut their prices over it. Walmarts price influence really only mattered when product came back, I can agree that they likely helped burn off sticky price faster. In that short window, dealers actually had to compete with Walmart or they would sell very little. (Walmarts had stock more consistently once demand died off). I can buy into that. Walmart did reduce the amount of Cosby action happening in the margins/transition phases of a panic. Maybe even blocked some "gaming" by distributors in limited cases. But while its actually full retard? Meh.

Look what happened this last go around.... prices fell like 300 bucks in a year, and Walmart is basically irrelevant outside of 22lr and 12G target ammo. Market forces still work even without the supposed 200 lb "20%" gorilla in the room.

Yep, Walmart also increased their 22lr/12 gauge prices in the last few months.
Anyone seen the price of automatch or that winchester PowerPoint 22?

 

[drgrant]

Yep, Walmart also increased their 22lr/12 gauge prices in the last few months.
Anyone seen the price of automatch or that winchester PowerPoint 22?

In fairness everyone elses 12G went up, too. Ammo that was easily $60 a flat is now $90-$100. So even Walmart is going to go up with that kind of a spike in the base cost of the
ammo. Although usually those 100rd bricks of 12G they sell are cheap but who knows. A lot of it is semi-crap, too. (depending on load etc).

The other day someone asked about Mini Mags. Walmart used to be like $8.99 or something. Now they're up to like 10.56 or something I think. TSUSA is selling right around $11 w/prime.

 

[Rate_of_Twist]

lots more words and emojis

The derp is strong with you. The conversation is about inflation and pricing in the market. Many things put pressure on pricing, inflation is one of them, availability is another of many. Any major retailer can have an effect, the biggest (by nearly double) will have a profound effect - regardless of your small minded "but I couldn't find any so they dont matter" mindset.

 

[E.Stoner]

It's bumming me out through my email for receipts from 2019 and seeing 9mm BB $156/K , 9mm Fed HST $303/K, 45ACP BB $303/K, 38S BB $287/K ...
However the childish bickering and dick measuring in this thread is helping me feel better. Thank you for your service!