What the Great Ammunition Shortage Says About Inflation

[EJFudd]

Not true at all, there was definitely a covid component to gun sales. Covid-fear-sales were full retard long before the rioting puffed up. The first wave of gun and ammo shortages in 2020 was basically welded to covid as far as im concerned.

Well, first off, I must disagree that Walmart... which owned a full 20% (not 15%) of US ammo sales prior to its virtue signaling BS... was a small player that didn't matter. When they started their virtue signaling BS in late 2019, just like that 20% of the US ammo supply went off the market. That alone should have been enough to cause big trouble in the ammo business and it did. I benefited greatly later from the Great Walmart Evil Ammo Selloff sale in December of 2019, but that was not enough to change what was to become the 2020-2021 ammo shortage.

And please remember that I am talking ammo here, not guns. Also remember that COVID was not even a thing back in late-2019 when Walmart pulled the rug out from under us. COVID only started to be a thing in the USA in early-2020.

For the record, my last successful TSUSA order was placed in late-March 2020. I consider that to roughly mark the beginning of the ammo shortage. GF was in late-May 2020. Are we really arguing about just 2 months here?

I don't recall guns (not ammo, guns) being in short supply until much later. As far as my experience goes, the ammo shortage and the gun shortage began at somewhat different times.

 

[G4Y4HK]

When the fat kid at the buffet line takes all the food and you're left waiting for the next batch to come in. The ammo dried up cause we the taxpayers bought it for the DHS. Just under two trillion rounds a year. Why do they need that many booletz?

 

[drgrant]

Well, first off, I must disagree that Walmart... which owned a full 20% (not 15%) of US ammo sales prior to its virtue signaling BS... was a small player that didn't matter. When they started their virtue signaling BS in late 2019, just like that 20% of the US ammo supply went off the market. That alone should have been enough to cause big trouble in the ammo business and it did. I benefited greatly later from the Great Walmart Evil Ammo Selloff sale in December of 2019, but that was not enough to change what was to become the 2020-2021 ammo shortage.

Lol so when are you guys going to put up the pics of the secret walmart ammo factory that was destroyed in December? It's not as if the capacity to produce didn't go elsewhere. (and whatever production from there on out went to other box stores and gun shops, unless you're suggesting people just stopped buying ammo because walmart didnt sell it.

Also the mids tried sitting on ammo to drive the price up. Sure they did that, not contesting it. Had walmart not cucked out though, they would have been bare
regardless. Walmart abating demand from ECR would have been the eqivalent of pissing on a forest fire, in that respect. People were literally running around buying any ammo they
could get their hands on, even for guns they didnt even own yet, etc. It was absolute mayhem.

For the record, my last successful TSUSA order was placed in late-March 2020. I consider that to roughly mark the beginning of the ammo shortage. GF was in late-May 2020. Are we really arguing about just 2 months here?

Actually, we are, because a lot of shops were getting f***ing hammered in that almost 3 months, like mercilessly. Let me put it this way, in those 3 months if the dealers had
access to what they really wanted to stock, they would have sold most of it, easily.

I don't recall guns (not ammo, guns) being in short supply until much later. As far as my experience goes, the ammo shortage and the gun shortage began at somewhat different times.

It depends on perspective. As a buyer, a resourceful person could still skate around and mostly get what they needed up to a point. Sometimes at slightly elevated prices,
etc. For dealers? Different ballgame, many were struggling to keep stock. Small low volume dealers who had poor relationships with distributors were getting screwed because they
got cleaned out but struggled to get product because they had no allocation power. Depending on your perspective (and what you were shopping for) a supply timeline might look
completely different. I just know things were f***ed when shops had guys hanging around/leering/waiting for shipments of ammo to come in, and so on. Or in one case I witnessed a shops staff bringing in ammo purchased from an estate sale and like 3 guys were literally hanging around to see what it was at the off chance they could buy some of it. They were leering
pretty heavily at things like boxes of 380. I was hoping someone would play Aqualung over the stereo in the store when I saw it....

Also outside of New England things were a lot worse. Since this bullshit started I have been periodically sending care packages out to friends in other states, where ammo wasnt available at any price in a lot of cases.

There WERE signs that things would rebound well in May, but that didnt last for shit. Then the Floyd thing happened and the whole cycle of bullshit happened again but it layered on top of the existing covid BS.

 

[gunofthrones]

If this guy buys a few boxes of ammo for each gun he has, it will cause an ammo shortage.

 

[EJFudd]

Lol so when are you guys going to put up the pics of the secret walmart ammo factory that was destroyed in December? It's not as if the capacity to produce didn't go elsewhere. (and whatever production from there on out went to other box stores and gun shops, unless you're suggesting people just stopped buying ammo because walmart didnt sell it.

Also the mids tried sitting on ammo to drive the price up. Sure they did that, not contesting it. Had walmart not cucked out though, they would have been bare
regardless. Walmart abating demand from ECR would have been the eqivalent of pissing on a forest fire, in that respect. People were literally running around buying any ammo they
could get their hands on, even for guns they didnt even own yet, etc. It was absolute mayhem.



Actually, we are, because a lot of shops were getting f***ing hammered in that almost 3 months, like mercilessly. Let me put it this way, in those 3 months if the dealers had
access to what they really wanted to stock, they would have sold most of it, easily.



It depends on perspective. As a buyer, a resourceful person could still skate around and mostly get what they needed up to a point. Sometimes at slightly elevated prices,
etc. For dealers? Different ballgame, many were struggling to keep stock. Small low volume dealers who had poor relationships with distributors were getting screwed because they
got cleaned out but struggled to get product because they had no allocation power. Depending on your perspective (and what you were shopping for) a supply timeline might look
completely different. I just know things were f***ed when shops had guys hanging around/leering/waiting for shipments of ammo to come in, and so on. Or in one case I witnessed a shops staff bringing in ammo purchased from an estate sale and like 3 guys were literally hanging around to see what it was at the off chance they could buy some of it. They were leering
pretty heavily at things like boxes of 380. I was hoping someone would play Aqualung over the stereo in the store when I saw it....

Also outside of New England things were a lot worse. Since this bullshit started I have been periodically sending care packages out to friends in other states, where ammo wasnt available at any price in a lot of cases.

There WERE signs that things would rebound well in May, but that didnt last for shit. Then the Floyd thing happened and the whole cycle of bullshit happened again but it layered on top of the existing covid BS.

Well, I think we will have to agree to disagree about the impact on ammo availability of Walmart cutting and running back in late-2019.

On the other hand, I agree with you that the 2020-2021 ammo shortage was much, MUCH worse than the supposed gun shortage. In the case of guns, it was pay more or shop more or wait a little longer... but still get what you want. In the case of the ammo shortage, at its worst it was nothing available at any price short of ridiculous scalper prices.

But in regard to the cause(s) of these shortages, there is a lot of blame to go around... more than what's been mentioned. It's been a Hellish two years. Trying to separate out one cause from another is a fool's errand. All we can do is look back and try to match up dates as best we can.

 

[Rate_of_Twist]

Lots and lots of words….

Your inability to comprehend what a single retailer with national brick and mortar coverage that sells 20% the entirety of a commercially available product does to pricing and availability is staggering.

Did you have to send care packages post SH? Nope, because Walmart, and that is a small part of my point. Walmart represented the price floor all while having the logistics to get the product to the correct locations.

Nobody is saying Walmart produced a single round. What they did was put more rounds, consistently in more hands and at a lower price than anyone.

 

[DW357]

Anyone who thinks ammo prices will go back to 2019 prices is insane. Vista Outdoors has had like 4 price increases (cost of raw materials etc) since this shitshow began. So there’s no way they’re going to sell below cost.

 

[Pyromancer]

Your inability to comprehend what a single retailer with national brick and mortar coverage that sells 20% the entirety of a commercially available product does to pricing and availability is staggering.

Did you have to send care packages post SH? Nope, because Walmart, and that is a small part of my point. Walmart represented the price floor all while having the logistics to get the product to the correct locations.

Nobody is saying Walmart produced a single round. What they did was put more rounds, consistently in more hands and at a lower price than anyone.

Walmart didn't put a price floor on ammo.

Outside of the great Walmart purge of 2019, what was the lowest 10 year Walmart case price for 9mm? Foreign steel Tulammo for a case price of $190+ tax, + gas, + the pleasure of waiting 20 minutes for an "associate with a key" to show up and do his job...

Meanwhile online was what $170/case for Domestic brass delivered to your door.

Sure, they had the lowest prices on 12 gauge target loads, and they still do. But nothing else.

 

[Qwikdraw45]

It's a government conspiracy! I lost my job. Sununu says "I'm cutting the Federal extra amount" on unemployment, so I had to get a job instead of waiting for something more suitable. Lots of applications. The only one who offered me two jobs? The State of NH. Why? No one else was willing to work for them for $2 to $5 less than they could make on the outside. I had an injury, and only ".gov" experience and they had something that I qualified for on paper. Now combine that with increasing rents, and we ended up moving into a tax-credit building. That means that I can't earn much more for income or we lose the apartment. Now, combine lower income with a limited ability to earn extra. How do bills get paid? By selling off guns and ammo. So, I am now almost a "non-gun owner". Top it with the fact that everyone else is out of cash after stimulus-checks-are-gone/Christmas spending, and no one is buying the remaining ammo. They've almost got me where they want all of us. Dependent on them and gun-free.

 

[Pyromancer]

Anyone who thinks ammo prices will go back to 2019 prices is insane. Vista Outdoors has had like 4 price increases (cost of raw materials etc) since this shitshow began. So there’s no way they’re going to sell below cost.

Yep, not anytime soon, they were also near decade low prices in 2019. Imagine, an asset that was cheaper in 2019, than in 2009. I kick myself for not buying more!

IIRC in 2019 prices were about:
9mm @ 16cpr
.45 @ about 26 cpr
.22 @ 4cpr
7.62x39 @ 20 cpr
.223 @ 27 cpr

 

[groundscrapers]

I completely agree with that. What happens from here (regarding pricing) will likely be more heavily influenced by inflation compound by labor issues

they run super lean and heavily automated. Labor shouldn't be a big burden. Raw materials will be worse.

 

[DJBrad]

Yep, not anytime soon, they were also near decade low prices in 2019. Imagine, an asset that was cheaper in 2019, than in 2009. I kick myself for not buying more!

IIRC in 2019 prices were about:
9mm @ 16cpr
.45 @ about 26 cpr
.22 @ 4cpr
7.62x39 @ 20 cpr
.223 @ 27 cpr

I did buy more, much more. I loved the Trump slump.

 

[DJBrad]

they run super lean and heavily automated. Labor shouldn't be a big burden. Raw materials will be worse.

True. Copper, lead, brass, primers, and powder are priced for perfection now. Imho copper is too expensive and will come down in price from the $4/lb. spot. There will be some price swings in all raw materials this year and it’s still up in the air what may occur, whether a disenflationary or deflation event. The big problem is a wage spiral already happening with increased fervor. That will play and has already played a huge role in inflationary pressures and is something that will not abate. Automation unfortunately will increase to curb this issue.

 

[drgrant]

Your inability to comprehend what a single retailer with national brick and mortar coverage that sells 20% the entirety of a commercially available product does to pricing and availability is staggering.

Lol, no I can't comprehend it, I was only one of several people around here hitting up (mostly empty, or nearly empty) walmarts at the time with myself, @mikelawtown and few other members here who used to religiously scope out walmarts during the obama admin panics. Bear in mind WMs ammo drops were never that big, either. Yes it was great getting the equivalent of an "iced coffee in hell" once in awhile, but I never saw it as some kind of earth shattering thing. It was still an absurd market. Basically we drove around like retards to get a handful of boxes of ammo here and there. '(Although mike probably got a shitload of ammo, but he was way more dilligent than most of us). You had to bust your ass to get 1000
rounds of anything this way though.

Did walmart "help" ? Sure. But it's still drastically overstated. Believe what you want, though.

Food for thought: If walmart was still selling 9mm and 5.56 do you think their shelves would be anything but "usually bare" right now? If so I have a nice bridge to sell you guys.

 

[Rate_of_Twist]

Lol, no I can't comprehend it, I was only one of several people around here hitting up (mostly empty, or nearly empty) walmarts at the time with myself, @mikelawtown and few other members here who used to religiously scope out walmarts during the obama admin panics. Bear in mind WMs ammo drops were never that big, either. Yes it was great getting the equivalent of an "iced coffee in hell" once in awhile, but I never saw it as some kind of earth shattering thing. It was still an absurd market. Basically we drove around like retards to get a handful of boxes of ammo here and there. '(Although mike probably got a shitload of ammo, but he was way more dilligent than most of us). You had to bust your ass to get 1000
rounds of anything this way though.

Did walmart "help" ? Sure. But it's still drastically overstated. Believe what you want, though.

Food for thought: If walmart was still selling 9mm and 5.56 do you think their shelves would be anything but "usually bare" right now? If so I have a nice bridge to sell you guys.

Your view point is myopic at best. It's also spastic and flailing. I really don't give a flying crap about your antidotal "I checked all my Walmarts and couldn't find anything" bull crap. Thats not the conversation. My point is simply, 20% of market share, especially when combined with better distribution and retail coverage, is significant and served as a measure of stability. This also isn't a matter of "believing what I want" as its economic principles.

I think that point could be made about any product you would like to insert. I would also tend to wager that because of the controlled nature of ammunition, the buying nature of the average consumer, and the buying power of the average brick and mortar local "competitor" Walmart's previous 20% would prove to be more disruptive than other products.

 

[EJFudd]

Walmart didn't put a price floor on ammo.

Oh, please. They sure as heck did. I even remember taking Walmart's lowest anywhere ammo prices to Cabela's while Cabela's still had their price matching policy. In fact, it was Walmart ammo prices that caused Cabela's to eventually can their price matching policy. Even Cabela's could not compete with Walmart's buying power.

You are comparing apples and oranges when you compare brick & mortar store single box prices to what you can get via the Internet if you buy by the case with some kind of paid annual membership deal. Come on now.

When most folks talk price floors, they usually mean within a given area for the same product on the same terms. On that basis, Walmart was always the cheapest.

 

[mikelawtown]

Lol, no I can't comprehend it, I was only one of several people around here hitting up (mostly empty, or nearly empty) walmarts at the time with myself, @mikelawtown and few other members here who used to religiously scope out walmarts during the obama admin panics. Bear in mind WMs ammo drops were never that big, either. Yes it was great getting the equivalent of an "iced coffee in hell" once in awhile, but I never saw it as some kind of earth shattering thing. It was still an absurd market. Basically we drove around like retards to get a handful of boxes of ammo here and there. '(Although mike probably got a shitload of ammo, but he was way more dilligent than most of us). You had to bust your ass to get 1000
rounds of anything this way though.

Did walmart "help" ? Sure. But it's still drastically overstated. Believe what you want, though.

Food for thought: If walmart was still selling 9mm and 5.56 do you think their shelves would be anything but "usually bare" right now? If so I have a nice bridge to sell you guys.

Definitely do not miss those days no joke it’s probably only thing I was ever addicted to. I start work around 7:30 back then and I was at Walmart first thing whether it be mainly Plaistow rushing to the ammo section to see Pam the older woman with the short hair at the ammo section, used to call me by name and we always chatted and when I was on the road I will hit Salem Manchester sometimes Danvers didn’t matter how far away they were for me I just needed that box of nine or 22
I also used to drive from Lawrence to shooters outpost at exit 9 N. just to get my four box limit of 9 mm … Jim would Bring me to the elevator and hit the basement where he was very well stocked always been a good guy to me then hit Riley‘s & bass pro.

I’m glad I’m well-stocked but anytime I see it at Walmart I will post up of course
I grabbed some .22 in Plaistow a couple months since I bought my 13 year old a Compact Ruger 10/22

 

[EJFudd]

+++

Definitely do not miss those days no joke it’s probably only thing I was ever addicted to. I start work around 7:30 back then and I was at Walmart first thing whether it be mainly Plaistow rushing to the ammo section to see Pam the older woman with the short hair at the ammo section, used to call me by name and we always chatted and when I was on the road I will hit Salem Manchester sometimes Danvers didn’t matter how far away they were for me I just needed that box of nine or 22
I also used to drive from Lawrence to shooters outpost at exit 9 N. just to get my four box limit of 9 mm … Jim would Bring me to the elevator and hit the basement where he was very well stocked always been a good guy to me then hit Riley‘s & bass pro.

I’m glad I’m well-stocked but anytime I see it at Walmart I will post up of course
I grabbed some .22 in Plaistow a couple months since I bought my 13 year old a Compact Ruger 10/22

All I can say is: "Those were the good old days"! Cheap ammo (compared to today) when you could find it!

 

[drgrant]

Your view point is myopic at best. It's also spastic and flailing. I really don't give a flying crap about your antidotal "I checked all my Walmarts and couldn't find anything" bull crap. Thats not the conversation.

Myopic? Because I discussed reality? lmao

Lol not having product on the ground is signifcant. It's hard to argue that something is a stabilizing influence when the effect just looks like barely visible noise to the consumer.

 

[Rate_of_Twist]

Myopic? Because I discussed reality? lmao

Lol not having product on the ground is signifcant. It's hard to argue that something is a stabilizing influence when the effect just looks like barely visible noise to the consumer.

Look up myopic, maybe it will make sense.

 

[drgrant]

Look up myopic, maybe it will make sense.

I know what it means. Not having product is still a significant factor.

 

[EJFudd]

I know what it means. Not having product is still a significant factor.

At some point, you're got to ask yourself: "How come the retailer with the single greatest share (20%) of the American ammo retail sales market never had any ammo I wanted in stock when I got there"? It's actually a very reasonable question.

For one thing, we know that their ammo supply was spread out among well over 4,000 stores in the USA, so that's one factor.

We also know that other smaller retailers were buying as much ammo as they could from Walmart so they'd have something to sell themselves, probably with the cooperation of certain Walmart sales associates for a little consideration. In some cases, they were buying it cheaper from Walmart than they could buy it themselves from wholesalers.

But in the end, the most logical answer is that someone (most likely, MANY someones) got to your favorite Walmart store before you did and bought as much ammo as they were allowed to buy. Plus, I'm guessing that those same Walmart sales associates noted above had friends and family of their own that wanted ammo. I'll bet a lot was bought by those Walmart sales associates or held back for friends and family... which didn't include you nor me.

What drove all this crazy ammo demand from Walmart? Price! Price! Price! See post #46 above.

 

[Pyromancer]

Oh, please. They sure as heck did. I even remember taking Walmart's lowest anywhere ammo prices to Cabela's while Cabela's still had their price matching policy. In fact, it was Walmart ammo prices that caused Cabela's to eventually can their price matching policy. Even Cabela's could not compete with Walmart's buying power.

You are comparing apples and oranges when you compare brick & mortar store single box prices to what you can get via the Internet if you buy by the case with some kind of paid annual membership deal. Come on now.

When most folks talk price floors, they usually mean within a given area for the same product on the same terms. On that basis, Walmart was always the cheapest.

Many of us don't have TS memberships and were regularly pulling $170 cases online.

4 Seasons and 619DW were regularly selling single boxes @ Walmart, if not close to Walmart prices. Sure, they're not enormous discount chains, but considering most gun stores "inflated" their ammo prices they were a great low price option.

 

[drgrant]

At some point, you're got to ask yourself: "How come the retailer with the single greatest share (20%) of the American ammo retail sales market never had any ammo I wanted in stock when I got there"? It's actually a very reasonable question.

Lol, We had to go through what I would call flaming hoops to get whatever little we got. We had better surveillance and intel. Some of us would hit the same store twice in one day (two different people) etc. We developed relationships with SG clerks that were willing to give us intel. If guys like us were basicallly collecting table scraps (a few hundred rounds at a go, maybe, depending on what it was) then the average chump had no chance of getting much from a given walmart. A lot of times @mikelawtown and myself would literally watch them bring out the ammo cart. Sometimes they would have no common stuff on that cart at all or maybe just a partial case. "Spread out among 4000 stores" has a lot to do with it too,
more than likely. I would bet that new england walmarts probably got a lower allocation of ammunition, too. Not to mention there were many that simply didnt even carry
ammo.

I used to believe the theory you guys do. But the reality is "we'll do just fine without them" and don't let the door hit them in the ass on the way out. They're irrelevant
now., its like discussing spilt milk.

 

[EJFudd]

Meanwhile online was what $170/case for Domestic brass delivered to your door.

Many of us don't have TS memberships and were regularly pulling $170 cases online.

Okay, I've got to ask because I watched TSUSA like a hawk pre-crisis and I didn't ever see any domestic manufacturer brass-cased 9mm for $170/case delivered without applying the membership discount. May I ask... Which brand and type ammo are you talking about here?

 

[drgrant]

Many of us don't have TS memberships and were regularly pulling $170 cases online.

4 Seasons and 619DW were regularly selling single boxes @ Walmart, if not close to Walmart prices. Sure, they're not enormous discount chains, but considering most gun stores "inflated" their ammo prices they were a great low price option.

I think its important to put this in context, though. WM used to have better prices when market was under duress. When the market is normal walmart is basically shit and wasnt worth stopping it outside of possible convenience issues. (it was great picking up value packs and cat litter at the same time, etc)

Places like TS and about a half a dozen other remotes that sell ammo didnt even exist during Sandy Hook. (or if they did, I dont remember them). IMHO a lot of these places like TS and
some of the other vendors discussed here, in the past 10 years are basically taking over the role that WalMArt used to occupy for aggressively discounted ammo. "good". I'd rather just click buttons and get what I want

 

[EJFudd]

They're irrelevant now., its like discussing spilt milk.

True. I just like talking about the good old days, such as they were.

 

[drgrant]

Okay, I've got to ask because I watched TSUSA like a hawk pre-crisis and I didn't ever see any domestic manufacturer brass-cased 9mm for $170/case delivered without applying the membership discount. May I ask... Which brand and type ammo are you talking about here?

Probably CCI Blazer Brass 115, although TS wasnt the only place selling it. May have been some for less. Before mid Feb 2020 there was a lot of options. Once something like 9mm gets below a certain point I didnt hunt on price, id buy what I wanted. In a lot of instances it would be like "ok I am at SO, he has Fiocchi 9mm out for $180 a case," buy, didn't care that something like CCI blazer brass was 20 bucks less online, not a great motivator. I'd rather just buy the good stuff and load it into my car.

Basically anything under $200 was almost free, IMHO. At that point buy the good stuff and dont flint.

 

[DJBrad]

Okay, I've got to ask because I watched TSUSA like a hawk pre-crisis and I didn't ever see any domestic manufacturer brass-cased 9mm for $170/case delivered without applying the membership discount. May I ask... Which brand and type ammo are you talking about here?

This was the cheapest I’ve ever seen it since I’ve been shooting. That price didn’t include the Vista outdoors rebates either which dropped it below $150 for a case delivered. The deal was 8% off a prime and no Ma sales tax at that time.

 

[EJFudd]

This was the cheapest I’ve ever seen it since I’ve been shooting. That price didn’t include the Vista outdoors rebates either which dropped it below $150 for a case delivered. The deal was 8% off a prime and no Ma sales tax at that time.
View attachment 562792

That is amazing. I see it is now $359.80/case (but out of stock).

Do you have a rough date on that price? I'm wondering how the heck I missed it?