What does SHTF mean to you?

[ShadeWPI]

What is your definition of SHtF?

Any event which results in a signiciant distruption of primary infrastructure or authority.

This could be as minor as a multi-day power outage - something we have experienced in New England multiple times over the past few years to the total government collapse and loss of infrastructure.

Being prepared for when the SHtF is providing sufficient skills, supplies and planning to ride through the initial event and the transitional phase so as to provide the best possible opertunity for success in the "new norm" that will arise following the transitional phase.

Preparations should progress from the most probably to the least probable.

Temperary Disruption in Primary Infra-structure: An example here would be this past October's ice storm when whole towns in Vermont lost power AND roads for a week. -- Are you prepare to operate without infrastructure services for 7-14 days?

Temperary Disruption of Primary Income: Examples include extended illness, injury, job loss / loss of work hours -- Are you prepared for 6 months without primary income? Do you have the skills necessary to provide supplimary income in an alternative field of work?

Temperary Disruption of Primary Shelter: Examples include burglary, fire, flooding, damage, infestation or other event that makes your primary shelter uninhabitable for a period. Are you prepare to leave your home/residence for 2-3 months?

Temperary Disruption of Authority: Examples being mob response, loss of primary authority due to its lack of preparedness for one or more of the above 3. "Looting" is almost always a response to this type of SHtF event. While this is typically only a day or two, significant events can create extended disruptions in authority or the replacement of "recognized" authority with mod / might rule. Are you prepared to handle at least a few days disruption of authority? 2-3 Months?

Those are some of the most likely SHtF events to be prepared for. As we have seen from Natural Disasters, NDs have the capability of causing all 4 at the same time. - Are you prepare to respond to all 4 at the same time for a limited 2-3 months period?

Once you have those 4 Addressed for reasonable periods, you can move to the much less likely but more serious SHtF events:
Economic / Political Collapse
Rebel Uprising / Rebellion
Mass Conventional Attack (bombings, expanded 9-11 events, etc)
Nuclear, Biological / Chemical attack

 

[Romeosierra616]

Zombies and fantasy stuff like that should get it's own forum and kept on it, it's a little silly to include them in serious conversations, unless jokingly lol

I mean if Zombies could happen, what about Vampires and werewolves?


Unless it's suggested that they are humans who are feral from rabies or something like in I Am Legend, then it could at least seem plausible enough for serious topics.

 

[Boghog1]

well if they sparkle in the sunlight I am going to die from laughing

 

[SteelShooter]

Zombies and fantasy stuff like that should get it's own forum and kept on it, it's a little silly to include them in serious conversations, unless jokingly lol

I mean if Zombies could happen, what about Vampires and werewolves?


Unless it's suggested that they are humans who are feral from rabies or something like in I Am Legend, then it could at least seem plausible enough for serious topics.

At least for me, when I refer to "The Zombies" it means all those people who were unprepared and are now looking to get stuff any way they can.

 

[Rider]

Zombies and fantasy stuff like that should get it's own forum and kept on it, it's a little silly to include them in serious conversations, unless jokingly lol.

I don't know if it's unspoken, or I'm just way off base, but I thought 'zombie apocalypse' was a culturally acceptable context in which you could discuss blasting lots and lots of, er, um, 'zombies', as opposed to shooting other things, which is wrong and bad. Likewise, when people see you doing something they think is odd, like stocking up on canned goods or buying 4 cases of .223 ammo at Walmart, they feel much better when you say 'zombie apocalypse' and chuckle than they do if you say, 'Ma'am, it's clear to me that government is corrupt and civilization is nearing collapse. I strongly suggest you begin preparing for it, though it might be too late. here's a pamphlet with information on how to get started.'

I'm not sure why, but the pamphlet, complete with a full-color drawing (in crayon) of the earth exploding, seems to be what makes people nervous.

That all jokingly out of the way, I think that at this point it just gets thrown into every conversation and you either have to laugh along or ignore it. I've gotten plenty of mileage out of zombies, and it amazes me the amount of things people will ignore if you just say 'zombies' when they ask why you're doing something.


True story: one day I was at Dick's buying several cases of .223 and .45 ammo, and the lady in line behind me says, "You must be planning to do a lot of hunting!" The lady behind the counter just looks at me, and I sort of mumbled, "Sure" because I couldn't think of something funny that might not scare the hell out of her. I didn't think it would be right to say,"Ma'am, I wouldn't shoot an animal with this ammunition!" when buying 1,000 rounds of the stuff.

+1 to SteelShooter for brevity.

 

[OPM]

You could have told her you are going duck hunting.

 

[rlee]

Rather than a long list of circumstances, I have a somewhat simplistic definition of SHTF.
It's when because of changes in my surroundings, the possibility of using lethal force for self-defense has risen above seat-belt and fire-extinguisher stage.

 

[Romeosierra616]

haha yeah maybe I took the term "Zombie" too literally then lol

 

[OfficerObie59]

To me it means anything where my and my family's sole survival is completely dependent on my actions ALONE--food, water, shelter, fire and security. Notably the use of firearms is instrumental in obtaining fire, food--and without security, you can't retain any of the others.

Usually this will occur from substantial enough breakdown of society such that either societal institutions (churches, community organizations), informal social control (community standards) and formal social control (laws & the criminal justice system) are insufficient to keep the majority of society in order, with the result that its every man for himself. The causes are too numerous to imagine, but I would consider the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina to be a moderate example, falling somewhere in the middle of the spectrum of severity.

I would also consider it a pre-SHTF scenario when there has yet to be a breakdown in society, but most institutions we rely upon in this modern age are no longer available (i.e., electricty, supermarket shopping, etc.). I don't care if you live in Weston or Carlisle--you may have to hunt some squirrel to survive, and so be it. I consider the ice storms of a few years back to have come awfully close to this.

My .02

 

[hmburgers]

I was thinking about this thread, specifically Hiltonizer's comment that it's already happened... I'm about your age (5 years older) and I wonder if people in our age group feel this way because we have a lack of true perspective for previous recent decades? Maybe our feelings of dread are amplified by also coming to grips with the realities of living as adults in this world.

20/30s--Depression Era

40s--WWII need I say more?

50s--we had a very real threat of mutual nuclear annihilation WRT USSR

60s--continued foreign wars and communist build up, hippies everywhere... construction became chintz (imagine being a person used to houses with plaster walls and then seeing a new home built w/ that paneling crap? You'd probably think the world was doomed just from that alone! )

70s--gas crunch (rationing and waiting in lines for gas! Still hasn't happened recently ... general malaise and uncertainty from what my father tells me

80s--peaks for interest rates, hard drug use, financial system robber barons (sounds familiar) ... new fears over war with USSR now not as much due to their growth or strengthening but because of their death throes...

90s--to those with perspective the 90s must have seemed relatively benign! That's the age where I "grew up" and started paying attention to the world...

00s--back to usual... tech bubble collapse very early on... major terrorist event trigger military response... tightening of checkpoints at borders, airports, etc... gas prices triple and quadruple... 2nd worst financial meltdown...

So I don't know... are the 00s that much worse than say the 40s? Or 70s? Now we're a year into the 10s, we've got civilian protests (basically a lite version of hippies), we've got continued financial system pressures...

For me, SHTF is when the essential freedoms and rights we have are gone--access to affordable health care isn't it... unfettered access to air travel isn't it... To me it's "We're here for your firearms / precious metals / home grown crops / etc", "You must remain indoors during these certain times", "You may not associate with these citizens", people start being held at internment camps over fears that they MIGHT do something--in essence when we swap to being guilty until proven innocent.

Is SHTF going to be caused by an event, or will it just be a slow build up to where more and more people declare "that's it!"? As a slightly compulsive engineer I'd prefer an "event" that is cut/dry, easily recognized ... but as an intelligent person I also realize that, if it is going to happen, a slow build up is much more preferable because you hopefully have the "luxury" of keeping your threshold lower than the rest of the populace there by giving you opportunity to prepare and execute your plans ahead of an apparent tipping point.

 

[hmburgers]

At least for me, when I refer to "The Zombies" it means all those people who were unprepared and are now looking to get stuff any way they can.

+1

That's what I've taken it to mean as well...

Heck if you think about your typical Zombie movie the behavior of the two groups even tends to match--they leave you alone until they become aware of your existence... and then they become forceful about wanting your "brains"... They don't stop until either an easier target presents itself, you are "eaten", or they are "dispatched".

 

[schnips]

Read up on what went down in Argentina between December 2001 and January 2003. Essentially, their dollar collapsed and the country was in shambles for over a year. Essential and emergency services were often unavailable, cash was scarce, and toilet paper was one of the most valuable barter commodities. If anything, the stuff that you can read at ferfal.blogspot.com is as close what we may experience in the event of an economic collapse.

 

[OfficerObie59]

90s--to those with perspective the 90s must have seemed relatively benign! That's the age where I "grew up" and started paying attention to the world...

00s--back to usual... tech bubble collapse very early on... major terrorist event trigger military response... tightening of checkpoints at borders, airports, etc... gas prices triple and quadruple... 2nd worst financial meltdown...

For the 90s, I would add "LA Riots"

For the 00s, I would add "Hurricane Katrina"

Both are prime, specific examples of--not simply the risk of--actual occurances of SHTF situations occuring on US soil within the past 20 years--ones where there would be no way to adequately prepare unless you were gtg before the threat became apparent.

 

[Hiltonizer]

I was thinking about this thread, specifically Hiltonizer's comment that it's already happened... I'm about your age (5 years older) and I wonder if people in our age group feel this way because we have a lack of true perspective for previous recent decades? Maybe our feelings of dread are amplified by also coming to grips with the realities of living as adults in this world.

I have no doubt that is certainly part of it, and your time line makes some great points. There has without a doubt been strife at all times throughout the ages.

The cause for my line of thinking however, is that despite those events, the American way of life generally improved over time. Obviously, a lot of lives were turned up side down, steps backward were taken, but the standard has generally increased over time. My concern is, there really isn't any singular series of events in my opinion to be concerned about, its a general degradation of society and infrastructure and loss of culture that makes me wonder if we will be experiencing a slow and steady decrease in the standard of living.

 

[Rider]

The cause for my line of thinking however, is that despite those events, the American way of life generally improved over time. Obviously, a lot of lives were turned up side down, steps backward were taken, but the standard has generally increased over time. My concern is, there really isn't any singular series of events in my opinion to be concerned about, its a general degradation of society and infrastructure and loss of culture that makes me wonder if we will be experiencing a slow and steady decrease in the standard of living.

I agree. What hmburgers' post makes me think about is sitting in lines for gas with my mother for hours every week on the days that we were allowed to go to the gas station based on our license plate number. That, plus the constant worry about nuclear war(yeah, even in the 70's and 80's, kids were terrified of that.)

I separate this into two pieces; the worry, and the lifestyle. From a worry point of view, I think that young people, all people, got a big wake up call on Sept. 11(after the 90's, which was the first period in my life where fear of war didn't occupy my daily thoughts), and the fear of terrorism and constant war over the past ten years casts a pall over life that replaces nuclear war with an equal fear.

But from a lifestyle perspective, I think that even in this very difficult economy, the degree of suffering for many people is trivial. I don't mean to be insensitive, but a lot of the privation many people are 'enduring' right now is over the stuff we don't really need. People still have TV's, cell phones, computers, and internet. If you are employed and/or keeping your head above water, then it's mostly mental. That is, I worry about all the what-ifs associated with a horribly run government and what that means for me as well as the economy. My livelihood and upside potential is closely tied to the economy(moreso than most), so while I am reasonably secure for now, I don't see things improving a lot in the short to medium term.

As to your thoughts about the decline, the most optimistic econ guys I know call for us muddling through the next couple of years, and who knows what happens if Obama gets re-elected, which I'd give better than 50% odds given the republican field atm. I don't know that a second term would constitute SHTF, but I don't think it would be good for gun owners specifically, and I don't think it will be good for America at all. Even if you agree that the government is worthless, you have to have a President who talks about better days ahead for all and building for a better future. What we have now is one who believes that anyone who is successful must have cheated, that anyone who lost out or didnt even try is a victim deserving a handout, and that we shouldn't bother trying to make the world a better place.

A completely unscientific poll of my unemployed friends reveals that most of them would rather have a job than another year of unemployment benefits.

I had a bit of a revelation just now on why the 90's were great, even though I started them broke and unemployed: in peacetime(Gulf War I just ended), coming out of a recession, people are optimistic. They aren't planning for the apocalypse(or not so many of them, anyway) or hunkering down to weather the storm, or worrying about what goes on over there, wherever there is. They are focused on the future, making plans, what's next, and so forth, and mostly doing so in an optimistic mindset. I ended the 90's in a much better place than i started them. The 2000's were an exercise in victory, defeat, and running to stand still. Almost everything I worked so hard for in the first half came apart in the second half(though, again, my life is quite good overall). When I look forward, for myself, for my nephews and nieces, I see that many of them will not have the opportunities they are looking for, at least until the economy improves significantly, and that will take years even if we miraculously do get a functioning government at some point.

Anyway, rambling, apologies.

 

[hmburgers]

For the 90s, I would add "LA Riots"

For the 00s, I would add "Hurricane Katrina"

Both are prime, specific examples of--not simply the risk of--actual occurances of SHTF situations occuring on US soil within the past 20 years--ones where there would be no way to adequately prepare unless you were gtg before the threat became apparent.

You're right, I did leave them both out, and it wasn't intentional, thanks for reminding me...

Actually brings up a couple of other questions when defining SHTF, maybe these were hit on earlier in the thread and I've forgotten--

1) Do you define SHTF as something permanent or temporary? (Permanent being something with no obvious end/solution--riots in LA I see solved by increased military/police presence, those guys are way to busy with looters and violent people on the street to care about me in my home... Katrina is a matter of waiting out the storm for several days... even a major snow event in our area is a matter of waiting out a couple of weeks... I would consider all of these to be bad news, and potentially worthy of leaving the area, but not SHTF).

2) If you include temporary events, do you restrict those to being local, regional or national? (If there were riots in Boston I could drive a few hours and be in quiet and safe areas... If there were a cat 5 hurricane headed toward Boston and they were advising evacuation of areas within 20 miles of the coast I could head 50 miles west with my choice of 3-4 different friends and relatives... or 400 miles west to my brother's home... to me if "safety" is a tankful of gas away then I wouldn't consider the event to be SHTF).

Maybe I should be expanding my definition of SHTF.......

 

[P-14]

Read up on what went down in Argentina between December 2001 and January 2003. Essentially, their dollar collapsed and the country was in shambles for over a year. Essential and emergency services were often unavailable, cash was scarce, and toilet paper was one of the most valuable barter commodities. If anything, the stuff that you can read at ferfal.blogspot.com is as close what we may experience in the event of an economic collapse.

This! Details here.

 

[Hiltonizer]

To be more concise as to why I think S already has HTF.. let me try putting it this way.

It is more prudent to live providently as our grandparents/great grandparents did as it ever has been, since then. I think all the steps backward that have brought us to that point in total is SHTF.

 

[Cabinetman]

Something relatively simple will trigger the collapse.

The forums here and elsewhere are all filled with observations that show so many parts of our society are failing and under tremendous pressure. All it will take is for one serious trigger to begin the cascade of their failures. It's kind of like that game where you stack blocks and try to remove one here and one there without tipping the tower. All of a sudden the loser picks one too many and down it goes.

In my mind the collapse will be caused by something fairly basic, most probably when ATMs fail to work and Banks close or don't open unexpectedly. Maybe it will be something like a Euro collapse causing a domino effect back here. It will be reported in the news at night or early in the morning and that would make me go from condition green to yellow. Don't forget, there are only four major national banks anymore and they are all severely infected with bad debt and European debt. BOA alone has tanked, just look at their stock. So, if one of them (BOA specifically) has to shut, it will cause a major disruption in the financials, markets will plunge because the remaining 3 banks can't absorb it, so banks will just not open one morning. People are absolutely attached to their ATM cards and don't have cash on hand. No ATMs, no credit, no fuel for trucks carrying food to stores and supplies everywhere. People will begin panic buying across the country and those living in cities will light the fuse which will cause major panic. It will happen fast; probably within 24 hours which will be way too fast for the gubmint to respond. All it will take is for the public to be denied cash and technology to get cash. Credit, of course, will be shut down, too.

So, imho, the loss of technology is what will cause the panic. As soon as it's evident that this is happening, I'll ask my wife to call in sick to her job and we will discuss our options. I don't want her stranded in a city. I'll also call, if I can, and alert my kids. They're all preppers, too. Then we'll begin our call "tree" with the friends we've planned with. We'll watch to see if this is a temporary panic or if it will fester immediately in to a national panic. My gut says it goes national within a day. Maybe the government will step in trying to infuse more fiat money into the banks so they can open the next day but that will be too little to late. And you won't be able to simply drive out of your area and expect to find civility and supplies elsewhere like this last storm. You will be on your own at that point and plans should have been made to rally with your group while the local roads are still open and crowds aren't storming the shuttered stores.

During this last regional storm when things shut down, it was clearly evident that panic had actually begun to set in. Nothing worked; even cell phones were down here. No technology, no ATMs (no power!), no fuel or food. That scared a lot of people and when I began to realize just how isolated we had become the hair stood up on the back of my neck. We were in mode "yellow" but realized that we could drive out of this mess if we wanted to. Once you lose that ability, you'll know you're in code "red" and it's time to move.

I'll close by saying that I just recently turned 60. In our wildest dreams we had no idea that we would even have to think about this 20 years ago. It can consume you and it's a lot of work to continue trying to move forward, enjoy life, and plan for retirement while also preparing to simply survive by our wits and supplies. I'll say it here; it's simply not freakin fair. But to go blithely into the future thinking that everything will be just fine is totally irresponsible. That's called the "normalcy bias" where you wake up just knowing that nothing bad could possibly happen to disrupt your normal life.

That's my take and that's how we're moving forward.

Rome

 

[dna]

The forums here and elsewhere are all filled with observations that show so many parts of our society are failing and under tremendous pressure. All it will take is for one serious trigger to begin the cascade of their failures. It's kind of like that game where you stack blocks and try to remove one here and one there without tipping the tower. All of a sudden the loser picks one too many and down it goes.

JENGA!

 

[Cabinetman]

I knew that someone here would know what that game was! Thx!

Rome

 

[jmjkd]

Logic, common sense, integrity and honor all missing today. Everyone is worried about that $$$$ You can’t even offer advice without someone criticizing how you said it or your intentions.
Mistrust
Jealousy
Creative truth telling
Greed

Until this changes, down down we go…

 

[Rider]

My wife told me about a Facebook friend who lives in Cambridge and is a raging liberal. He was ranting about who would not be voting for Obama because he signed NDAA, and how he was still better than 'the decider' etc. Of the 33 comments, apparently about half of them were about how you'd have to be a paranoid loony to believe the government would actually do the stuff the law allows them to, and the other half was people actually concerned. (although you have to wonder why you would pass a law that contradicts the Constitution if you didn't plan to use the power it confers.)

So I reckon the S has HTF when Cambridge liberals are worried that the most progressive President in 2 generations is infringing on their rights.

 

[richief]

unemployment, and inflation!

 

[dna]

My wife told me about a Facebook friend who lives in Cambridge and is a raging liberal. He was ranting about who would not be voting for Obama because he signed NDAA, and how he was still better than 'the decider' etc. Of the 33 comments, apparently about half of them were about how you'd have to be a paranoid loony to believe the government would actually do the stuff the law allows them to, and the other half was people actually concerned. (although you have to wonder why you would pass a law that contradicts the Constitution if you didn't plan to use the power it confers.)

So I reckon the S has HTF when Cambridge liberals are worried that the most progressive President in 2 generations is infringing on their rights.

Loony and paranoid? Let me guess, it also "would never happen" and "they will not and can't do that to us as American citizens"? Yeah, well, it's not like it's fictitious 1984-ish subject matter anymore, but rather a reality.

I never thought I would see something like this get signed into law in my lifetime, even though I'm very young. But it is a giant wake-up call.

 

[mikem317]

The USA PATRIOT ACT (sic) and the NDAA are probably the two most heinous pieces of Constitution-shredding bills that became law. Between those two laws, the general aggregation of power to the United States government, and more specifically to the Executive, should give every freedom-loving American great pause.

How the SHTF will materialize is up for conjecture. But I think the USA PATRIOT law and the NDAA law have set the stage.