Smith & Wesson sales off by 47% as demand for firearms drops

Rating - 100%
12   0   0
Joined
Jan 10, 2010
Messages
2,993
Likes
2,214
Location
SE CT
The drop in SWBI stock price has made my mock "cash-secured puts" (16 Dec $10 puts) go in-the-money. 8 Days to Expiration. This example has a break even of $9.60 a share, but we'll see where we are next Friday.
 
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Aug 24, 2019
Messages
1,384
Likes
2,087
We've seen these ebbs and flows before. Nothing new. The sales explosion that they and everyone else was having couldn't go on forever. As a side note S&W really had an opportunity to take some serious thunder from Glock back around 2014 ish when Glock was having a number of issues with their Gen4 guns. But S&W was also having some accuracy issues with their M&Ps in 9 and denied that there was a problem. If they had released their 2.0 guns back then they probably would have grabbed a much better market share then they have now.
 

Mark from MA

NES Member
Rating - 100%
55   0   0
Joined
Jun 4, 2008
Messages
8,458
Likes
6,802
We've seen these ebbs and flows before. Nothing new. The sales explosion that they and everyone else was having couldn't go on forever. As a side note S&W really had an opportunity to take some serious thunder from Glock back around 2014 ish when Glock was having a number of issues with their Gen4 guns. But S&W was also having some accuracy issues with their M&Ps in 9 and denied that there was a problem. If they had released their 2.0 guns back then they probably would have grabbed a much better market share then they have now.
There were a lot of people buying 9mm target rounds at 25 a box with money they didn't have, saying the prices would never come down......glad I wasn't one of them.

I will say the run lasted longer than I thought it would.......
 

agabriel

NES Member
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Jul 8, 2015
Messages
156
Likes
78
Location
So NH
The sad part is I think there are probably other older manufactures also having significant issues. I don't think these companies are run by shooters. I also don't think the leadership of older companies understands what people are looking forward. The one thing I will really give S&W leadership - I don't think many people really want to purchase the old school style revolvers. However, if they went in the other direction...
- Emphasis on what people think of when considering S&W
- Make classic revolvers cool and again
- Enable historic kit (e.g. the Schofield package like they did 20ish years ago)
- Modern revolvers, like Korth
- A solid custom shop able to properly slick up a revolver
- Subsidiary company working on the newer plastic semis and ARs

I suspect Colt would be even more to make cool.
 

tuna

NES Member
Rating - 100%
5   0   0
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
11,762
Likes
22,852
Location
Far North New Hampshire
I haven't bought a S&W since the original M&P9 15 years ago? They don't make anything compelling. I'm sure they sell a decent amount of revolvers based on nostalgia, but that's probably the only item I would consider purchasing from the current S&W line, which would basically be a safe queen.

This drives my greatest hatred towards S&W - forget about an original gun design (oooooh look, a 1911, a plastic striker fired handgun and an AR, how unique) - they just gave up on the the damn naming conventions.

This is an original M&P (not mine).

1670606544121.png
 
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Aug 24, 2019
Messages
1,384
Likes
2,087
The sad part is I think there are probably other older manufactures also having significant issues. I don't think these companies are run by shooters. I also don't think the leadership of older companies understands what people are looking forward. The one thing I will really give S&W leadership - I don't think many people really want to purchase the old school style revolvers. However, if they went in the other direction...
- Emphasis on what people think of when considering S&W
- Make classic revolvers cool and again
- Enable historic kit (e.g. the Schofield package like they did 20ish years ago)I
- Modern revolvers, like Korth
- A solid custom shop able to properly slick up a revolver
- Subsidiary company working on the newer plastic semis and ARs

I suspect Colt would be even more to make cool.
I'm also stunned at times with what gun companies do. Colt is probably the worst offender of how can we make the dumbest decisions possible. H&K I kinda get. The German government is involved. Nothing good comes of government involvement.
 

P51MA

NES Member
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Jul 2, 2022
Messages
195
Likes
319
Location
MA
Was anyone really expecting the panic buying of 2020 to continue?
Most of the panic buying should be done by about now, but I think the baseline gun sales will be permanently higher.

Definitely below 2020/21 levels for a while though. And if we get a fat recession in 2023 as looks likely, then that may hurt sales as well. But crime is still a problem, and the political situation is still crap in all regards. Gun sales have been trending up since 2008, with a couple big peaks. Gun sales look like a bitcoin chart lol. The next big gun shortage will be even bigger.
 
Rating - 100%
6   0   0
Joined
Oct 17, 2017
Messages
4,333
Likes
8,139
Location
The mountains of S.E Tenn
Most of the panic buying should be done by about now, but I think the baseline gun sales will be permanently higher.

Definitely below 2020/21 levels for a while though. And if we get a fat recession in 2023 as looks likely, then that may hurt sales as well. But crime is still a problem, and the political situation is still crap in all regards. Gun sales have been trending up since 2008, with a couple big peaks. Gun sales look like a bitcoin chart lol. The next big gun shortage will be even bigger.

I hear ya.
Probably more "panic returns" now vs. "panic buying"
 

Spanz

NES Member
Rating - 100%
1   0   0
Joined
Feb 25, 2009
Messages
57,838
Likes
79,681
Maybe if they didn't build overpriced sh*t.
yes i would like to see lower cost handguns.
but there are labor costs, materials costs, advertising, insurance, cost for lawyers, design and testing cost, employee 401K matching,lobbying costs, donations to politicians, and on and on. a company has to make a profit.

is it OK for home depot to charge me $65 for one sheet of plywood nowadays? I can choose to buy the plywood, or rummage thru my barn for some used wood for a project for free, or choose to not do a project.
same for gunz....i have enough for defense...so at this point, i have to decide if it is worthwhile to buy a new one or not--Maybe to sell an old one to afford to buy a new one.

Market forces prevail here. If another company makes a superior product, or a cheaper good product, then i would buy that instead. So there is that holding down S&W prices.
 

Broc

NES Member
Rating - 100%
14   0   0
Joined
Sep 18, 2010
Messages
46,977
Likes
86,473
yes i would like to see lower cost handguns.
but there are labor costs, materials costs, advertising, insurance, cost for lawyers, design and testing cost, employee 401K matching,lobbying costs, donations to politicians, and on and on. a company has to make a profit.

is it OK for home depot to charge me $65 for one sheet of plywood nowadays? I can choose to buy the plywood, or rummage thru my barn for some used wood for a project for free, or choose to not do a project.
same for gunz....i have enough for defense...so at this point, i have to decide if it is worthwhile to buy a new one or not--Maybe to sell an old one to afford to buy a new one.

Market forces prevail here. If another company makes a superior product, or a cheaper good product, then i would buy that instead. So there is that holding down S&W prices.
the price is not an issue. The quality and lack of innovation is. It gets boring.
 

EJFudd

NES Member
Rating - 100%
13   0   0
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
5,811
Likes
4,531
Location
Behind Enemy Lines
Maybe if they didn't build overpriced sh*t.

the price is not an issue. The quality and lack of innovation is. It gets boring.
Poor build quality and lack of quality control (two related but separate issues in my mind) are certainly problems for the current incarnation of Smith & Wesson. :(

Innovation? I assume you mean that in regard to semi-autos and long guns... not to S&W's revolvers. I would prefer some reverse-innovation for their revolvers. [laugh]

Over-priced vs. expensive? Some models may be over-priced and some are certainly expensive. I guess it all depends on your point of reference (e.g., Taurus?). 🤔

Not sure what S&W can do short-term to remedy the drop in sales. Rebates are a double-edged sword... and a return to very high quality is kind of a distant dream. :confused:
 

BigTimber

NES Member
Rating - 100%
15   0   0
Joined
Jan 26, 2010
Messages
6,196
Likes
10,004
Love their revolvers, but I’ve owned two of their autos and they were hands down the 2 worst handguns I’ve ever owned. Fwiw.
 

Broc

NES Member
Rating - 100%
14   0   0
Joined
Sep 18, 2010
Messages
46,977
Likes
86,473
Poor build quality and lack of quality control (two related but separate issues in my mind) are certainly problems for the current incarnation of Smith & Wesson. :(

Innovation? I assume you mean that in regard to semi-autos and long guns... not to S&W's revolvers. I would prefer some reverse-innovation for their revolvers. [laugh]

Over-priced vs. expensive? Some models may be over-priced and some are certainly expensive. I guess it all depends on your point of reference (e.g., Taurus?). 🤔

Not sure what S&W can do short-term to remedy the drop in sales. Rebates are a double-edged sword... and a return to very high quality is kind of a distant dream. :confused:
There is ZERO SW innovation on revolvers. The days of SW building cool sh*t ended roughly 20 years ago. Now they take the same revolver, cut a $10 rail on it, call it Performance center and change $500 more. [rofl]

The overall quality of their guns is sh*t and their Performance Center Marketing BS gets old.

SW should start focusing on quality and turning around Performance Center. But that ship has sailed.
 

EJFudd

NES Member
Rating - 100%
13   0   0
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
5,811
Likes
4,531
Location
Behind Enemy Lines
There is ZERO SW innovation on revolvers.
What exactly are you looking for? Please don't tell me more plastic. 😢 Not in revolvers... please? :(

The new Model 19 is supposed to be all new internally (so it could be built cheaper with CNC & MIM parts by moron-level assemblers). Is that what you mean?

I want the reverse of modern innovation in my S&W revolvers. I want the revolvers they were able to build up to about the mid-1980's. [cheers]
 

Broc

NES Member
Rating - 100%
14   0   0
Joined
Sep 18, 2010
Messages
46,977
Likes
86,473
What exactly are you looking for? Please don't tell me more plastic. 😢 Not in revolvers... please? :(

The new Model 19 is supposed to be all new internally (so it could be built cheaper with CNC & MIM parts by moron-level assemblers). Is that what you mean?

I want the reverse of modern innovation in my S&W revolvers. I want the revolvers they were able to build up to about the mid-1980's. [cheers]
No, plastic s*cks.

They need more X frame revolvers, even if they price them all at $1500, which is what they seem to do. Give us a 454, give us a new caliber - maybe a .550 caliber.

If SW and Ruger started competing again on calibers, it would probably continue to push Magnum Research and Freedom Arms. Could be awesome.

As of right now, MR is just crushing it.

Maybe now that Ruger is being a p*ssy with revolver production, give us a nice single action Colt clone.
 

drgrant

Moderator
NES Member
Rating - 100%
61   0   0
Joined
Mar 21, 2006
Messages
85,771
Likes
79,173
How about it they REALLY made their Classic revolvers?

No Hillary hole, firing pin on the hammer, pinned barrels, recessed cylinders - you know...the way they used to make them?

Sure, they'd be more expensive - but you'd actually have that classic look. I hate "new" S&Ws (mid 80s on) and even I'd get excited about that.



Naah - make a generic striker fired small gun and an AR. No one does that.
If they upped their quality control, made the stock trigger better, got rid of that stupid f***ing lock they could get another 2-400 bucks a gun easy.... but most of their demo is S&W ball sniffers who will buy regardless. Basically they know they have a captive audience. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I wish Kimber would make more revolvers. A few more 357s and a couple 44 magnums.....
 

agabriel

NES Member
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Jul 8, 2015
Messages
156
Likes
78
Location
So NH
I'm also stunned at times with what gun companies do. Colt is probably the worst offender of how can we make the dumbest decisions possible. H&K I kinda get. The German government is involved. Nothing good comes of government involvement.

I feel like CZ management may like to shoot, but Colt management may not actually even have a gun in the house. Running Colt would get me out of tech. I feel like the Colt and CZ management have totally missed the boat in terms of strengths and weaknesses - the overlap and boundaries are so screwed up. I feel like I see Colt/CZ in a really 3d way. With a few relatively small tweaks the entire CZ line up could actually make sense. Colt/CZ could redefine access to military contracts, current production pistols, history, and re-invigorate hand fitted custom pistols. They could also pay homage to the history of the country in a really profitable way. They miss so much...
 
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Aug 24, 2019
Messages
1,384
Likes
2,087
I feel like CZ management may like to shoot, but Colt management may not actually even have a gun in the house. Running Colt would get me out of tech. I feel like the Colt and CZ management have totally missed the boat in terms of strengths and weaknesses - the overlap and boundaries are so screwed up. I feel like I see Colt/CZ in a really 3d way. With a few relatively small tweaks the entire CZ line up could actually make sense. Colt/CZ could redefine access to military contracts, current production pistols, history, and re-invigorate hand fitted custom pistols. They could also pay homage to the history of the country in a really profitable way. They miss so much...
Yea Colt is a real head scratcher for sure. If there was ever a class on what not to do to run a business colt would be the poster child. My wild guess as to why has the Colt/CZ partnership not gone the way anyone had hoped is the whirlpool of shit that is Colt was just too powerful for CZ to overcome.
 

pastera

NES Member
Rating - 100%
7   0   0
Joined
Nov 17, 2011
Messages
9,986
Likes
12,516
Location
Taunton
How about it they REALLY made their Classic revolvers?

No Hillary hole, firing pin on the hammer, pinned barrels, recessed cylinders - you know...the way they used to make them?

Sure, they'd be more expensive - but you'd actually have that classic look. I hate "new" S&Ws (mid 80s on) and even I'd get excited about that.



Naah - make a generic striker fired small gun and an AR. No one does that.
My son picked up a 15-1 a few weeks ago.
Showed him how to pull it apart for a thorough clean/lube - Beautiful craftsmanship
Pull apart anything from the last thirty years and it's sloppy fits and machining marks.
 

agabriel

NES Member
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Jul 8, 2015
Messages
156
Likes
78
Location
So NH
Yea Colt is a real head scratcher for sure. If there was ever a class on what not to do to run a business colt would be the poster child. My wild guess as to why has the Colt/CZ partnership not gone the way anyone had hoped is the whirlpool of shit that is Colt was just too powerful for CZ to overcome.
I suspect Colt is actually running CZ at this point. It seems like an odd merger providing no value to CZ at this point.
 
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Aug 24, 2019
Messages
1,384
Likes
2,087
I suspect Colt is actually running CZ at this point. It seems like an odd merger providing no value to CZ at this point.
It wouldn't surprise me. I don't follow CZ very closely but I believe I read that CZ was dropping some models from production that the CZ fans were pretty upset with. That would be like Colt to take a good selling product and drop it from production for reasons.
 

Broc

NES Member
Rating - 100%
14   0   0
Joined
Sep 18, 2010
Messages
46,977
Likes
86,473
I suspect Colt is actually running CZ at this point. It seems like an odd merger providing no value to CZ at this point.
CZ bought Colt.

If they allowed any of the failure upper level idiots to stay, CZ failed miserably.

CZ has been making some stupid desicion for a while, before buying Colt. Look at the amazing lineup of DISCONTINUED rifles they have.

I wish they would do a spin off and have the rifle division as a separate entity.

The rifle division has followed in the same footsteps as Ruger and SW. While Ruger and SW went from innovating revolvers and building cool stuff to focusing on their sh*t products, CZ did the same with rifles, except for their .22.
 
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Jul 14, 2021
Messages
14
Likes
25
Absolutely a case of market saturation. I agree with @Miguelito & @JuergenG . There’s also the fact that firearms enthusiasts don’t seem to be particularly enamored with their line of auto pistols.

I just dumped a bunch of their stock at a loss a few weeks ago.

I've never got that tingle in my pants for any of the S&W's I've shot.
 
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Aug 24, 2019
Messages
1,384
Likes
2,087
CZ bought Colt.

If they allowed any of the failure upper level idiots to stay, CZ failed miserably.

CZ has been making some stupid desicion for a while, before buying Colt. Look at the amazing lineup of DISCONTINUED rifles they have.

I wish they would do a spin off and have the rifle division as a separate entity.

The rifle division has followed in the same footsteps as Ruger and SW. While Ruger and SW went from innovating revolvers and building cool stuff to focusing on their sh*t products, CZ did the same with rifles, except for their .22.
When CZ didn't fire Colt management I had hoped they would just let them hang around long enough to find where all the bodies were buried and get an idea of the inner workings of Colt. But in the end it looks like Colt is pulling CZ down its whirlpool of shit.
 
Top Bottom