Preparation vs. Paranoia

TonyD

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I realize that there is the ADD (Apocolyptic-Dooms-Days) crowd out there but I really believe that preparation needs to be tempered with common sense. I don't think we've quite reached the bomb-shelter-in-every-backyard menatlity like the days of yore, however, the current climate of the world does demand a little more cognitive attention to preparation than most folks have given it in the recent past.

First, and foremost, we need to intelligently analyze what is most likely to occur, what is probable, what is obscurely possible and prepare accordingly. While a nuclear holocaust is possible I don't consider it likely. I do, however, concede that a "dirty-bomb" is more likely on that end of the spectrum.

So, where does that leave us? I prefer to concentrate primarily on the daily likelyhood for personal disaster, meaning - carjacking, robbery, random violence, vehicle accidents, house fire,ect. Preparation being defensive skills - empty hands, sticks, knives, firearms, etc. Also, emergency medical training and home-emergency planning.

Second is the planning for natural disasters. This is where the stores and wares come into play and the common discussion of "bugging" - either in or out. Natural disiasters are geographical in their most likely form and some give several days warning and others do not. Prepare a 'hurricane' kit and a check list for your family. Ideas for the contents can be found through FEMA, CDC or you local Emergency Management Agency.

I don't believe there is much of a likelyhood that would call for a slit-second bug-out. You are either going to be at the perverbial "Ground-Zero" or have time to gather your necessaties and travel to a more conducive environment. Or, you're going to ride the storm out at your place of residence.

Shelter is paramount in surviving and most often than not, your house is the best source. The exception is the eye of the hurricane, wild fires, etc. Even then, history shows us than many folks stay put and survive - at least until LAPD shows up. I'm of the opinion that if you prepare for the daily violence, have a "hurricane kit", a little cash on hand, a full tank of gas, and somewhere between three days and two weeks worth of food in the pantry, you'll be prepared for 99% of what comes your way.

The food is relatively easy. Every trip to the grocery store pick up three extra can-good items and stick them in the back of the cabinet. Eat the perishable items in fridge first, the frozen foods from the freezer next and the shelf goods last. Cooking methods can be a fireplace, propane, charcoal, camp stove or a fire pit in the back yard.

Just about every house holds enough water for a family of four for about two weeks. Two quarts per day, per person drinking, about a pint per person, per day for hygiene and maybe a quart per day, per four persons for cooking. Most water heaters hold around 50 gallons. Strain it through a T-shirt to filter out sediment and treat each gallon with about an 1/8 teaspoon of house-hold, non-scented bleach, let stand 30 minutes and use as needed. The exception to this is the case of a biological terrorist attack on the communities water supply.

If you decide that leaving is the best option, grap / pack the hurricane kit, personal defensive weapons and ammo, fill up a couple gallons of water, grap a little bit of emergency rations, and head towards either your short, medium or long range destination.
 
Good points Tony.

Although I am more of the mindset of preparing for the worst. I feel it's a little better to be preprepared.

Adam
 
Adam_MA said:
Good points Tony.

Although I am more of the mindset of preparing for the worst. I feel it's a little better to be preprepared.

Adam

Adam - My point was that if you plan and prepare for the first two, you'll be able to deal with something obscure.
 
First, let me say that I'm NOT a conspiracy nut or Dooms-Day believer.

But, as Tony has mentioned, Natural (and un-Natural) Disasters do happen. That's life.

To fail to prepare for likely scenarios would condemn you and your family to serious misery, in the event of a disaster. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

Tony does pretty much what I advocate. Slowly stock up on non-perishable food items, preferaby canned. Also keep a week or two ahead on perishable food, and further ahead on frozen items. Buy stuff you'll eat on a recurring basis, and rotate your stock through normal attrition. Avoid "Stupid Stuff" like multiple cases of MRE's, unlike you happen to like MRE's on a daily basis during normal times.

As far as firearms and ammo, own a few cheap MILSURP rifles. Buy a fair quantity of ammo for them. As you use the ammo, replenish it. THey also have the additional advantage of Political Correctness, believe it or not.

In the Military, we call our planned supplies "Basic Stock". I suggest the same mindset in your disater prepardness.
 
Nickle said:
Avoid "Stupid Stuff" like multiple cases of MRE's, unlike you happen to like MRE's on a daily basis during normal times.

But doesn't the shelf life alone, and the portability of MRE's make them just about the perfect item to store in a bug-out kit?

Nickle said:
As far as firearms and ammo, own a few cheap MILSURP rifles. Buy a fair quantity of ammo for them. As you use the ammo, replenish it. They also have the additional advantage of Political Correctness, believe it or not.

I see your point on replenishing your ammo as you use it, but what is your definition of "fair quantity"? Also, I think if I were in a situation where I would be taking firearms along for 2 reasons, survival (hunting) and protection I would want that firearm to meet certain criteria. It would first and foremost have to be reliable. Second it would have to be accurate, it would have a large capacity, and I would prefer semi auto. If in the situation where you have to either leave, or stay, and protect yourself against threats of looters, murders, roving gangs looking to hurt, rape, steal (like we saw in New Orleans) I wouldn't care one bit about weather or not someone thought the gun was politically correct, as long as it did it's job and I was alive in the end. I think maybe 2 rifles would be needed to fit this need.

Thoughts?

Adam
 
Preparation also does not need to be expensive, but should be custom tailored to the situation.

I heard a nice suggestion which was to try turning off the electricty for a day and see what you would be missing.

One thing I was worried about was what if there is some flooding (although we're not exactly in a flood area) and the power is out, and the basement starts to fill up.

I found this the other day, a water-powered pump:

http://www.plumbingstore.com/mightymightpump.html

As long as the water pressure holds, it can be used as a pretty high capacity sump pump.

It's interesting, now that I think about it, my father was always preparing things for emergencies, in a low key way. He always had some surplus lead acid batteries charging around the house, and a volkwagen headlight to make a lantern. We had lots of flashlights hung around things in the house. There was powdered milk and spam in the pantry. There was a tin of survival biscuits in the basement which were salvaged from a city fallout shelter that was being demolished. And he liked gardening, but would only grow plants you could eat. We had several shortwave radios around the house (military Hallicrafters models) amongst other things -- he was trained as a radar operator in the Navy in WW II, so he could build a radio with stuff around the house if needed...
 
Adam_MA said:
Nickle said:
Avoid "Stupid Stuff" like multiple cases of MRE's, unlike you happen to like MRE's on a daily basis during normal times.

But doesn't the shelf life alone, and the portability of MRE's make them just about the perfect item to store in a bug-out kit?

Only if you'll use them up enough to replenish them. If you've ever eaten MRE's long term, you'll develop a dislike for them. Remember, you want things that you'll automatically replenish. Then shelf life is irrelevant, unless you're planning on stocking up for a couple years ahead, and I don't think that's your intent. They also take as much or more room than canned food. I can feed a family of four from a couple of cans, if I supplement it with fresh meat, which is easy to come by most places.

Adam_MA said:
Nickle said:
As far as firearms and ammo, own a few cheap MILSURP rifles. Buy a fair quantity of ammo for them. As you use the ammo, replenish it. They also have the additional advantage of Political Correctness, believe it or not.

I see your point on replenishing your ammo as you use it, but what is your definition of "fair quantity"? Also, I think if I were in a situation where I would be taking firearms along for 2 reasons, survival (hunting) and protection I would want that firearm to meet certain criteria. It would first and foremost have to be reliable. Second it would have to be accurate, it would have a large capacity, and I would prefer semi auto. If in the situation where you have to either leave, or stay, and protect yourself against threats of looters, murders, roving gangs looking to hurt, rape, steal (like we saw in New Orleans) I wouldn't care one bit about weather or not someone thought the gun was politically correct, as long as it did it's job and I was alive in the end. I think maybe 2 rifles would be needed to fit this need.

Thoughts?

Adam

I consider a "fair quantity" in my case to be one or two thousand rounds per gun. Semi's I try to keep more, or materials to make more.

Now, my idea is to have both PC bolt guns, like Mosin Nagants, and military semi-auto's. The reason I prefer the Mosin Nagant is that they're readily available, cheap, the ammo is dirt cheap and they are 100% reliable. What is right varies from person to person and threat to threat. My situation calls for 3 rifles, not counting what other folks need.

The reason I prefer PC guns is that by the time laws make them illegal, it won't matter, since a Civil War will be brewing. Also, the cheap ones tend to be PC (except SKS's).
 
If you are really set on MRE's, you might want to think also on the lines of Mountain House and some others. Personally I would have to be really hungry for an MRE on a regualr basis. Alan actually likes alot of them, but we also supplement him with chef boy ardee and other canned foods also. Along with lots of hot sauces to go with them.
Here's a website to help in planning long term/emergency also.
www.providentliving.org/channel/1,11677,1706-1,00.html
 
I believe in the pantry....

Everyone buys food and have their specific likes and dislikes. As suggested by others, just add a couple of cans a week or more if a sale is on. MRE's are great for an on the run meal but they are costly. I know people who hunt and use MRE's during the hunting season. I don't think they are that big of an advantage. Freeze Dried foods do taste better than MRE's but they require extra water. If you are bugging out, water is heavy!
I think you can do whatever you want in your house, but if you need to leave because of a situation you have to think about the scenario beforehand. If you have to bugout, Saying I just load up the trunk, is not thinking. Remember everyone is bugging out along with you. Bug out to friends or family fine, but be prepared to walk. Cars will glog the roads. Take as much as you can in the vehicle, but know what stuff is mandatory if you end up on foot.

Ammunition and firearms: Take a long look here.
I too have 500-1000 rounds for most of my guns. I would never attempt to bring that much ammo along if I had to bugout. I own that much ammo because I shoot alot and it tends to be cheaper to buy in bulk.
As far a firearms go, the pistol is your best bet because it is small and concelable. Rifles have their place but don't concel as well. Consider too, any military looking weapon will stick out even more. and a guy walking down the road with am M1A will draw alot more attention, some of it unwanted.

When considering any of this, be prepared not paranoid. Realistically, nothing will ever happen. Base your decisions in terms of adding to what I use anyway and look at bugging out as a extended camping trip. The fact YOU have a plan will put you head and shoulders above most folks.
 
Also bear in mind that what you do varies depending on what you're bugging out from and where you're going to. For me, I only plan on going a fairly short distance in a very rural area, if I have to leave the house at all. I can depend on being able to drive there, and since it's less than 25 miles, multiple trips with motorcycles can get it done.

I'm also extremely rural, and Batle Rifles don't attract stares. As it states in my tagline, I actually HUNT with those rifles. I don't get stares, and only rarely questions about the guns, even when I've got my AK or AR.
 
Nickle said:
I'm also extremely rural, and Batle Rifles don't attract stares. As it states in my tagline, I actually HUNT with those rifles. I don't get stares, and only rarely questions about the guns, even when I've got my AK or AR.

You Sir, are lucky. Two years ago I used my AR15 while yote hunting here in MA. I had the 5 round mag in the rifle so I figured it was legal. My two friends had a 270 and 30/06. We got stopped by the Enviromental Officer he wanted to see "MY" license and ask questions about my rifle. Later we had a local cop stop us he asked me "What I needed that rifle for?" I told him a .223 is really a varmit cartridge and we are varmit hunting. Note: I said it with a smile like I was joking. Still I have never been stopped with a bolt gun.

Sorry ...I'm Hijacking the thread...I'll stop
 
I guess this would be a good thread topic to state my situation.

I have stayed up nights thinking about this subject. Wondering what I would do. People who I express my thoughts to just brush it off as paranoid. I do not have any children yet. No wife. Small immediate family. I am also still young and very able. The only thing that differs is that I seem to possibly think more into the future AFTER the disaster than most people.

I think about the initial bug in or out plan but then I think about what happens after. I know whatever it is I want my loved ones to be taken care of immediately. Most likely my girlfriend of a long time would want to be with her family. Hard to take but I completely understand. Hard to say but I also think I would survive much easier if I was alone. I sometimes think it would be good to have a team with equal abilities with me but then I think it would hold me back. More mouths to feed and possible mental breakdown of team members.

I think about in the following months and years. I can't stay in one room long enough to sleep let alone hide in my basement for months.

So my plan would be simple. After ensuring my families safety:

Immediate post disaster scenario. Bug in.

Food: : Plenty of water. Multi vitamins and extra supply of vitamin C. (Who knows how long before I see the sun again) I like carnation instant breakfast. Lasts forever and has all the nutrients a body needs. I get the double protien kind. Other than that, few cases of spam and cans of beans and I'm a happy man.

Equipment: Gas tent, mask and suit with plenty of filters. Walkie talkies, crank radios, flashlights, etc. etc. Shovels and picks etc.

Weapons: Since apparently it is Ft. Grifter I have no restrictions. I would prefer larger weapons with somewhat close combat versatility. An AR-15 comes to mind. Plenty of ammo.


Immediate post disaster scenario. Bug OUT.

Food, equipment and weapons preparation minimal. My father taught me for lack of a better line, " Always be ready to be out that door in 5 seconds when the heat is around the corner."

I ALWAYS have a bag with a clean set of cloths, flashlight, bottled water and protien bar in my vehicles. I mostly always am either carrying or have a sidearm in my vehicle. If bug out must happen I don't even want to have to run home first. I'm just gone.




Post-POST Disaster. Bug in or out.

Most likely eventually we will have to leave our homes or safe houses. We will have to fend for ourselves if the disaster was as big as some might think. Scenario is: Order still not restored. Basically almost apocalyptic.

Food: Always have at least 5 days water. Finding food may be only option. Food stores might be empty or food may be comprimised. Depending on the situation hunting may be appropriate.

Equipment: Gas mask. Helmet. ( For exploring unstable buildings) Flashlights and water purifier.

Weapon: I personally would prefer a few smaller side arms. Something in a more universal caliber. 9mm would be my choice. Two 9mm berettas would be best for me. Easier find find when supplies run low.

Yes something larger would be in order but lets think here. An AR-15 would be hard to conceal. Not to mention if something happened than there might be harshness towards government and military. Civ's might think your military or military might think you took the weapon off of a soldier.

Not to mention, weapons will be highly valuable and you might be attacked just for the weapon.

My choice would have to be something powerful but something easily concealed. HK MP-5. Enough said.



Or course I would love to go into detail of what I would do with unlimited funds but I'm thinking bare essentials here. and I'm really tired.
 
You mean planning for SHTF-day goes beyond having a couple hundred rounds of ammo, and mo-mos, err.. mormons, for neighbors?

Actually had a shipmate years ago that said all he'd need was a shotgun, 100 rds of shells, and the address list from a local mormon stake center (kinda like a church, but not) to provide for his food needs. Seemed rather callous.

Anyone read Dean Ing's books on the subject? (SHTF-day; not post-Doomsday mormon culture. But then, but he did write about that, too. Picture the Utah Ski Patrol as a church-directed assassin squad [shock] )He also (in the 1990's) nicely described a Wahibist WMD attack on the US, or at least PR of KA.
 
From Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, back when a lot of people were getting paranoid aboit the impending Y2K:

I've heard that many people are hoarding cash and food just in case civilization collapses. My strategy is to hoard guns and ammo so I can take the cash and food from the people who didn't do a good job thinking through the "collapse of society" concept.
8)

Ken
 
I think Tony posted some very prudent and good advice. I am not a big survivalist but things can go from Shinola to shit in a very short time. All one has to do is look at recent events.

MRE's are fun when you eat them on a camping trip, but like Nickle says, a steady diet of them only makes you hate them.

Jeff Cooper, years ago advocated having a .45, a shotgun, a Scout Rifle in .308 and "anything that fired 7.62 Russian." Al Pickles, a retired Federal Agent and gunwriter advocated having firearms and ammuntion available for trade or barter. He pointed out that when there is a major societal collapse or in areas of the world that are unstable, firearms become trade goods. To that end, rather than go out and buy gold, there are plenty of us with gun collections that could be used as trade goods. If forced to evacuate, havinga few extra guns to be used as trade goods along probably wouldn't hurt.

My survival battery would include the following guns on hand: Browning Hi-Power, Colt Series 80 1911A1, Ruger 10-22, Winchester Model 1300 Defender Shotgun, and a Ruger Model 77 in .308. In a perfect world, I'd probably have a better shotgun...but if the balloon went up tommorrow, that is what I would have and use.

Mark
 
mark056 said:
...Jeff Cooper, years ago advocated having a .45, a shotgun, a Scout Rifle in .308 and "anything that fired 7.62 Russian."
I guess I'll be in compliance with Chairman Jeff's directives when my Mini30 trigger group comes back from "Gundoc" at perfect union. Al Pickles' barter idea makes sense, too.

Nice battery, Mark. Pretty much with you, except for a Rem 660 for the 308; and either the 870M Express riot or the S&W 916 birder.

Still wonder though, if the 5" Super Blackhawk & the Marlin 44M might not be a bad substitute for the .45 & scout gun. I'd sure hate to think of either the .44M's or the 45-70's as trade guns.

Fr. Frog posted Jeff Cooper's article on preparedness vs terrorism here.
 
The good Colonel was referring to 7.62x54R not 7.62x39, I think. I advocate having firearms in both calibers. It's cheap insurance, and ammo is cheap and available. Also having a rifle in 5.56 NATO is a smart idea.
 
Nickle said:
The good Colonel was referring to 7.62x54R not 7.62x39, I think. I advocate having firearms in both calibers. It's cheap insurance, and ammo is cheap and available. Also having a rifle in 5.56 NATO is a smart idea.

I think you're right. And on the 2 fam-fires I've had; I liked the Dragunov off-hand notch when shooting from the bipod. Still, since I gotta pay bills, I'll have to make do with an M1 Garand & a mini30 in lieu of the 7.62x54R & the 5.56NATO until I can add these two at a later date. :)
 
A few defensive weapons would certainly be important: Remington 870, Sig 229 in .40, S&W 686 in .357, and something in 9mm (for ammo availability) but I think it would be reasuring to have a few .22 pistols (Ruger Mk II or III) and/or a .22 rifle like a 10/22 with ten or twenty THOUSAND rounds of ammo. It would be comforting to know that I would not run out of ammo anytime soon if SHF.

Chris
 
I definitely agree with Chris on this one. People tend to get caught up too easily in images of combat operations. I'll certainly take care to have something good for that area, but I'm not going to get carried away with it. For hunting, that same 12 guage that serves so well for defense, combined with a good .22 will take most anything edible that you're likely to run across in the northeast. Look around you; nobody goes hunting around here with a 7mm Rem Mag or a .300 Win Mag for the simple reason that all that long range performance is wasted. I own, use and love several long range precision rifles because that's what I grew up shooting and loving out where they were useful. To take care of me and mine, I'll take my 12 guage pump, my 1911 and a scoped .22 rifle with all the ammunition I in my safes that can handle with for all three. That's a hell of a lot for the .22, definitely over 10K rounds. I might conceivably throw in a good 9mm, .357 nad a .40, just in case I somehow run across a bunch of ammo for one of them, but I won't bother humping any, since there nothing there that the 1911 won't handle. Whenever possible, keep it simple, and always keep it realistic. This is the survival forum, not the collecters.

Ken
 
That pretty much fits with my caution that what you need varies by where you are.

For me, medium and long range game shots are possible, and fairly common.

And, I should've mentioned a 22, preferably scoped for taking out small game to fill the pot.
 
Ken said:
This is the survival forum, not the collecters.

OK, I'm guilty. Actually; I was just looking for an excuse to add more guns; and the Dragunov sure was fun to shoot!

I agree that, strictly for survival, the shotgun & 10/22 would cover most needs. If I didn't need to leave home; there's enough grey squirrel, mourning dove & turkey around the acreage, all I 'd really need is a good RWS pellet gun & a bit of patience to keep protein on the table.

Still, I would want at least one full-sized cartridge gun available; such as 180 gr FMJs or solids in 30-06 at a minimum. It isn't so much the long distance, as much as reserve against the possible time I may REALLY need penetration. If I need to move; as in road trip, I'd still want that capability. Yes, I know some modern slugs would work in the "deep penetrating" role; just a personal preference.
 
Actually, the Dragunov would make a very effective weapon for survival situations. The guns are cheap compared to an M1A, but about the same as a FAL, and slightly more than a DCM Garand.

The ammo is cheap ($44 for 440 rds), readily available, and can be had in SPAM cans (at the above price). It is also a current issue caliber, unlike the 30-06.

For a situation when you need some serious firepower, it would be a good choice. Of course, that would be an invasion or government meltdown scenario, not a natural disaster scenario, and therefore unlikely to happen.
 
Nickle said:
Of course, that would be an invasion or government meltdown scenario, not a natural disaster scenario, and therefore unlikely to happen.

However unlikely that scenario might be, it sure as hell can't hurt to be prepared for it..

Prepare for the worst (within reason) and pray you never need your preparations.

Adam
 
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