Keeping up the fire - my letter back to the author:
"Dear Dr. Loomis,
Thank you for taking the time to reply to my message. A Google of the internet does indeed show that your 2005 publication has been taken up by parties on both sides of the gun debate, with varying degrees of misrepresentation. On the anti-gun side, the paper is most often cited accurately, but mingled in amongst other text that leads one to picture employees gunning down the boss and other employees a the brick-and-mortar workplace (office, workshop, warehouse, etc.) rather than the all-to-common news report of a cabbie, pizza driver or “Stop & Rob” convenience store robbery turned deadly. This is the misrepresentation that I find most disquieting.
I am not surprised that > 80% of the deaths reported in your study were perpetrated using guns – a much lesser figure would have cast doubt on the validity of the data, as guns are the primary mode of homicide in the US. You seem to have taken pains to gather the most complete, accurate and balanced data set possible - much better than most, by a long shot. In the end, the data are what they are, as they say.
I think you make a useful point in the concluding lines of your 2005 paper: “These findings bear directly on policy for workplace safety. In light of the evidence, it is reasonable to question the costs and benefits of policies permitting firearms in the workplace.”
Your present work focuses on the potential costs of permitting firearms in the workplace – do any of your data reflect on the potential benefits? In assessing a rcost/benefit ratio, both sides of the equation are necessary.
While it appears the initial motive for gathering the dataset was driven by assessing homicide determinants and the efficacy of safety measures, perhaps there are some questions asked that would reveal benefits. Were any questions of the controls directed toward employee use of a weapon in an act of self-defense, either in transit to, from, or at the workplace? I ask about transit, as a prohibition of guns on workplace premises would entail a prohibition of carry to and from work, including in the vehicle, which is the workplace for cabbies and food delivery drivers. With many of the test cases detailed by proxies, this question may be of lesser utility (especially where the sole employee is dead).
As the 51mo study period (1/1/94 – 3/31/98) included 23mo before and 28mo after NC enacted Right to Carry legislation 12/1/95, you might find a near 50/50 mix of before/after data (based on 28 cases in each of 1994 and 1995, as reported in your 2001 AJE paper). NC state data
http://www.ncgccd.org/pubs/systats/spring97.pdf
indicates that over 20,000 CCW permits were granted in less than a year following enactment, so the ramp-up seems to have been relatively sharp. More recent data shows the trend has continued, with further increases in CCW permits issued by NC
http://sbi2.jus.state.nc.us/crp/public/other/conceal/Sept302004stats.pdf. Analysis using such figures might be another way to understand how guns in the workplace modulate worker safety. As the number of Shall-Issue/Unrestricted CCW states has increased from 30 in 1997 to 38 in 2006, this would be a very relevant comparison.
Further, as NC law allows for signage prohibiting guns on the premises “…where notice that carrying a concealed handgun is prohibited by the posting of a conspicuous notice or statement by the person in legal possession or control of the premises.”, should your dataset include data on such signage before and after enactment of NC’s CCW laws, that would an interesting analysis as well. Elsewhere, I have seen taxis with the “No Guns” stickers, so presumably even some cases with no brick-and-mortar worksite scene of shooting could be analyzed. While I did not find an assessment of such signage in your 2002 JAMA paper, do you have such data available? To that question, is your dataset publicly available or available on request?
Curiously, the number of fatal work injuries has drop 12.3% in the most recent 4 years of BLS data in comparison to the 1994-1997 BLS data – your study period. The rate per 100,000 has dropped from ~5 to ~4. Homicides have dropped from 2nd place to 4th place. BLS data
http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/cfch0004.pdf
show the decline in homicides accounts for this drop in fatality rate, even offsetting rises in other categories. In NC, 2005 BLS data indicate worker shooting homicides rank 5th for cause of death.
One just has to wonder what significant changes have lead to a reduction in the ranking of firearms-related worker homicide in the last ten years, especially given the rise in CCW rates over that period. Indeed, the murder rate in NC has dropped from a range of 8-11 in the 1994-1997 study years to 6-7 in the most recent years reported (2002-2005).
Certainly the hypothesis proposed by John Lott, that of “More Guns, Less Crime”, is a subject of debate almost 10 years since his original proposals and 1998 book, even if the editor of the NY Times article considers guns-in-the-workplace a settled matter. If and how such an effect, as Lott proposes, might help explain the apparent data shift in NC would be a telling analysis.
Based on a review of your broad publication record, it’s clear that you make efforts to let data tell the story, even if you might have personal opinions (as we all do) on the wide range of matters your work addresses. As a scientist myself, I try to let data guide my decisions, even if I am troubled by data that challenges my expectations and current views of the world. I’ll look forward to following your work on this topic.
I note that Nevada flipped to Shall-Issue at about the same time as NC, although the reported CCW rate is almost half of NC (which may not account for the more frequent open-carry I have observed in the outback). I hope you are enjoying your new surroundings."