Gold and silver prices are down

[enbloc]

100th Page!

 

[Win]

Yeah I might sell mine and put the money into something which is down but is actually worth owning.

The way I feel about emerging economies, is similar to how you feel about PMs - nearly everyone is out of the emerging markets, speaking poorly of the EM, and we are therefore near the bottom. Maybe we aren't at the bottom but I don't feel like we have much farther to fall. With that said, my instincts about equities investing are nearly always wrong so don't let me change your mind

 

[Varmint]

It's amazing how we can't even sustain short dead cat bounces/rallies. I think we're headed for $1140 gold, maybe lower. I'm gonna buy as much as I can (mining stocks, and some physical gold/silver) around $1140 in case that's the bottom.

I think the dollar could be headed to $100 or even $120, but I don't think that'll drive gold lower since the dollar rally will be due to a global fear/contagion trade, not a strong US economy. At some point fear will drive people into PMs.

 

[Win]

Yeah I don't understand the dollar rally. I just keep buying PMs when I have some extra money. I don't really wait to try to find the bottom or stop buying when I think we are the top. I just buy when I have extra money.

The one change to my buying habits that I'm likely to make if prices continue to fall is that everyone at the Win residence will be receiving PMs for Christmas . Santa will not be brining any toys this year - only PMs .

 

[Varmint]

Yeah I don't understand the dollar rally.

It's partly Fed tightening, and partly a flight to safety, ironically. As the Fed keeps raising rates and selling their QE bonds, there are fewer dollars in the system (banks lend less and quantitative tightening erases dollars from the system). At the same time, people are selling their emerging markets debt - why hold EM bonds earning 1% if you can earn 2.5% from US Treasuries. This is also driving up demand for the dollar. And as EM debt starts to fail, this creates more demand for dollars cause the debt is in dollars (if your Turkish bank defaults on $1 million in dollars, the global system now lost $1 million in dollars). As the emerging markets start to crash, the dollar could skyrocket in the short to medium term.

 

[enbloc]

At some point fear will drive people into PMs.

Fear is a PM's best friend...

 

[sacksjacked]

It's amazing how we can't even sustain short dead cat bounces/rallies. I think we're headed for $1140 gold, maybe lower. I'm gonna buy as much as I can (mining stocks, and some physical gold/silver) around $1140 in case that's the bottom.

I think the dollar could be headed to $100 or even $120, but I don't think that'll drive gold lower since the dollar rally will be due to a global fear/contagion trade, not a strong US economy. At some point fear will drive people into PMs.

We are not there yet. You will see a sharp rally in the US Dollar before you can see a meaningful bottom in PMs. All will flock to the US Dollar, spiking it up. Just look at what's going on in Turkey and Iran. I have co-worker who just got back from Turkey and he said people are buying USD with their Lira left and right, fearing further depreciation of their currency. Same going on in Iran with their currency. We are not there yet but you will know it when you see the USD spike hard and become a bubble. At that point I would back the truck up on PMs and Miners. That's my .02

 

[sacksjacked]

Yeah I don't understand the dollar rally. I just keep buying PMs when I have some extra money. I don't really wait to try to find the bottom or stop buying when I think we are the top. I just buy when I have extra money.

The one change to my buying habits that I'm likely to make if prices continue to fall is that everyone at the Win residence will be receiving PMs for Christmas . Santa will not be brining any toys this year - only PMs .

Screw the toys for X-mas. PMs for X-mas gifts are a brilliant idea

 

[Varmint]

We are not there yet. You will see a sharp rally in the US Dollar before you can see a meaningful bottom in PMs. All will flock to the US Dollar, spiking it up. Just look at what's going on in Turkey and Iran. I have co-worker who just got back from Turkey and he said people are buying USD with their Lira left and right, fearing further depreciation of their currency. Same going on in Iran with their currency. We are not there yet but you will know it when you see the USD spike hard and become a bubble. At that point I would back the truck up on PMs and Miners. That's my .02

That’s a recipe for DXY going to $120.

You’d think they’d be buying gold too, maybe they are. I’m just not sure a runaway dollar will drive PMs down much further, so I’m a buyer at $1140 gold. If it goes further to $1000, I’ll dig into the couch for loose change to buy more.

 

[sacksjacked]

10% ebay bucks going on guys. Use it if you are planning on a PM purchase.

 

[NH_Realtor]

Screw the toys for X-mas. PMs for X-mas gifts are a brilliant idea

I try to do this every year for the nieces and nephews instead of toys and the wife shuts me down. I make a contribution to a 529 account I set up for all of them, but would much rather give them some PM’s as well instead of some stupid toy they’ll play with for 5 minutes and then move on.

 

[yogi]

Picked up a nice englehard 1oz silver bar with cool patina and a Morgan 1880 S in uncirculated MS63 condition for $60 cash. Thought it was a very fair deal. Might even have made out .

 

[Varmint]

Picked up a nice englehard 1oz silver bar with cool patina and a Morgan 1880 S in uncirculated MS63 condition for $60 cash. Thought it was a very fair deal. Might even have made out .

Do things like Morgan silver dollars go up and down with the spot price, like are they selling cheap now cause silver in general is doing poorly?

 

[Rob Boudrie]

Do things like Morgan silver dollars go up and down with the spot price, like are they selling cheap now cause silver in general is doing poorly?

It depends. There are Morgans that sell for barely above spot and those that sell for tens of thousands due to numismatic value. The value on the former will more closely track spot, but high MS key date Morgans do not become less scarce when spot declines.

 

[yogi]

Varmint - I am a casual collector. But in my experience, the value of rare coins in the right the condition don't track the spot price. For example, I have a modern walking Liberty silver dollar, PCGS rated ms70 proof that I bought for $45 when issued and spot was around $16, it is now valued at $150. My advice, dollar cost average and diversify your purchases.

 

[Rob Boudrie]

it is now valued at $150

Yeah, but good luck trying to sell it for that . There is a difference between "valued at" and "what brokerages are offering". In the $150 range, "Valued at" often means what an individual retail buyer might pay, not what you can easily liquidate it for. Once you get into serious collecting you start tracking value by looking at what similar specimens sold for at name brand auctions like Stacks or Bowers.

 

[Win]

Heritage (Ha.com) has all of their auction archives available online. All one has to do is sign up to see what coins or other collectables have previously sold for.

 

[55_grain]

Morgans and Peace dollars don't track well with spot. People want silver dollars because they're cool and big, not because they have 0.7xx oz of silver.

 

[enbloc]

Do things like Morgan silver dollars go up and down with the spot price, like are they selling cheap now cause silver in general is doing poorly?

Only their melt value goes up and down with Spot. I.e. "junk" silver
Numismatists don't care about Spot. Well, not as much as condition, uniqueness, rarity.

 

[Win]

Different folks like different things. There isn't a correct thing to like. I have owned some really cool rainbow toned Morgans. The coolest one I owned was from the "Battle Creek" collection which had a high number of very nice toners. I've also a couple of Deep Mirror Proof Like (DMPL) morgans which have a different but also cool appeal - ultra clean fields with frosted devices. Now, the only morgans I own are in original grey F-XF condition. I enjoy thinking about the history those coins were a part of.

 

[enbloc]

I like your style Win...

 

[Varmint]

Morgans and Peace dollars don't track well with spot. People want silver dollars because they're cool and big, not because they have 0.7xx oz of silver.

Only their melt value goes up and down with Spot. I.e. "junk" silver
Numismatists don't care about Spot. Well, not as much as condition, uniqueness, rarity.

Yeah, I understand a $50 coin might have only $15 of silver in it, but does the value go up and down in silver bull/bear markets? Like right now silver is in a bear market - are these rare coins cheaper than usual?

 

[enbloc]

Yeah, I understand a $50 coin might have only $15 of silver in it, but does the value go up and down in silver bull/bear markets? Like right now silver is in a bear market - are these rare coins cheaper than usual?

From what I know...no.
Value is unaffected by spot.
Unless the holder of the Morgans is...naive, allowing a buyer to undervalue the coin to a potential seller.

So a nice $50 Morgan will remain at $50 until spot is $71.45/toz, then its "Value" is greater as melt.
This takes into consideration that the numismatic value of the coin remained static.

In a private sale anything is possible, but to a numismatic collector the material the coin is made of is only a "characteristic" of the coin.

 

[Win]

The price movement is roughly proportional to the proportion of the coins value that is in it's PM content i.e. a coin whose value is 25% in the PM content will move less than a coin who's PM content makes up 75% of its value.

I think the most common way that people invest in rare coins, the way that I have read about the most and heard discussed the most, is to attempt to find attractive examples of coins that are the grade below the biggest jump in price. An example of this would be a 1920 Pilgrim Commemorative (one of my personal favorite designs), the pcgs price for an MS66 coin is $400 but the pcgs price for MS67 coin is $2,000 (Silver Commemorative (1892-1954) Value - PCGS Price Guide). So coin investors might attempt to find attractive examples of the MS66 coins. The thinking is, if the demand for the 1920 Pilgrim increases the largest movement in price in any grade is likely to be the MS66 coins moving more closely in price to the MS67 coins. All the grades of the 1920 Pilgrim are likely to increase in value but the MS66 coins are likely to see the greatest returns.

I'm not advocating for investing in coins, I only buy what I enjoy owning, but this is the method to investing in coins that I have read about the most.

Glorious example of 1920 Pilgrim from PCGS (not my coin)

 

[Varmint]

Beautiful coin, the colors make it look amazing.

 

[yogi]

In terms of coin grading, which grading service do you prefer? Thanks

 

[Win]

In terms of coin grading, which grading service do you prefer? Thanks

If I really like a coin I don't pay much attention to the holder (or lack there of), I'll buy it. In terms of investing, PCGS and NGC are the top two certification companies. Many collectors consider PCGS to be a slightly tougher grader such that a PCGS 63 might be an NGC 64. That sentiment is pretty widespread in the numismatic community. I personally prefer the clear PCGS plastic around the coin compared to the white holder NGC uses but that has nothing to do with the coin. I've been a member with submission privileges to both companies and I will say that NGC is friendlier company in terms of customer service. PCGS is a little bit high brow and gives its best service to high volume, well known dealers. Both PCGS and NGC have numismatic discussion boards. You can get a lot of good opinions and see a lot of nice coins on those boards.

 

[Imprezah]

Closed for the weekend at 14.06! Should I make a big silver purchase this weekend or do you think it' going $13s next week?

 

[FPrice]

Closed for the weekend at 14.06! Should I make a big silver purchase this weekend or do you think it' going $13s next week?

I'd purchase some. How much depends upon your resources. I find it difficult to believe that it will go much lower, but then I voted for Charlie Baker the last governor's election so my prognostication skills maybe somewhat suspect.

 

[highscore]

I bought my only gold eagle a few years back, a bit over $1300. I only bought it because I like the look of it and if I cared about value, I'd sell it now and wait to replace it when gold goes down to the $700 - $600 range. Leave yourself a note to check page 100 of this thread so you remember where you heard it!