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Gold and silver prices are down

Discussion in 'Survival Forum' started by Rider, May 9, 2012.

  1. Rider

    Rider

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    I had to go back to late February to find anything on the subject, so I thought it would be worth mentioning that gold is right at 1600 and silver is under 30 for the first time in a while. I'm hoping the downward trend will continue a while longer, as people think the economy is getting better, there will be no QE3, and the wheels aren't coming off in Europe.

    This could be a good buying opportunity if you're still accumulating metals.
     

  2. CrackPot

    CrackPot NES Member

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    The last times bought in bulk gold was $300 and silver was $5. I can't seem to make myself do anything but sell at these prices...


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
     
  3. turbo89

    turbo89

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    Sounds like a buying opportunity... inflation is coming, hedge your bets now.
     
  4. The PMs market is being manipulated to death right now.

    If I weren't building a place right now, I'd be buying as much PMs as I could.....just bad timing for me at the moment.
     
  5. ShadeWPI

    ShadeWPI

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    The gold market has always been heavily manipulated.

    50% of gold demand is for ordimental purposes
    40% of gold demand is for monitary/investment purposes
    Only 10% of the demand for gold is for its intrinsic value verse the sentimental value we've placed on it.

    The average cost to mine 1 oz of gold is currently about $350, but that includes some very expensive sources that are only now profitable because of over-inflated gold prices and more than 80% of the gold ever mined is still in a reclaimable form. If it wasn't for the monarchs of old convincing themselves that gold had some magical properties and was thus valuable, the price of gold would be in the $200-$300/oz range based on real supply and demand economics.
     
  6. taggart

    taggart

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    Umm.. huh? If I have a piece of toast that looks like it has JC burnt on it, and someone is willing to pay $500 for it, then it is worth $500, not 5 cents.

    If people are demanding gold for ornamental purposes, then that raises the price.
    If people are demanding gold as a "safe haven" or for other purposes, then that raises the price.
    If people are demanding gold for its utility use in electronics and whatnot, then that raises the price.

    That being said, you aren't wrong about the gold markets being manipulated. The manipulation comes in with the "monetary/investment" side of things, but they are simply fooling people into thinking it's a good/bad investment. Whatever the people believe, however, plays into the demand side.

    I think what you are saying is that if gold was not used for ornamental or monetary purposes, then the value of it would be $200-$300/oz, but that is not the reality.
     
  7. Ronin308

    Ronin308

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    Ultimately, gold is the single greatest conductor on the planet, and if the ornamental desire was not there you can damn well bet it would be used more heavily in electronics, either way the demand exists in one form or another. Based on mans desire for it over the last 10,000 years, I'll put more faith in it than most forms of currency. Still prefer bullets though.
     
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  8. In God We Trust

    In God We Trust

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    I have a nice pile of greenbacks sitting in the bank that I am afraid to invest anywhere. It seems to me that any investment is going to tank in a year or two. Even sitting in the bank, I am losing value to inflation every year vs. the interest it is earning. I am considering getting more silver, but I am waiting for it to hit $20 before I buy any more.
     
  9. OPM

    OPM

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    I offer to buy ANY weight of gold from you @ $500/oz. Would you please go and mine me a few tons? I won’t even ask you for the source of the bogus “statistics” you posted. Just please mine me some gold. I tell you what – I’ll buy first 10 tons from you @ $700/oz. That’s twice your mining costs. Please start digging asap.
     
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  10. JS870

    JS870

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    Heh i just bought some silver oz's acouple days ago seems like a good time to invest in both i figure why not eh
     
  11. BerkshireHunter

    BerkshireHunter

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    I think you have to make investments bearing in mind that most people have forgotten or never had any concept of what money is. Gold -and silver, are money. Nothing else really. But, the whole world is in a Dark Age of monetary (and perhaps liberty?) understanding.

    That said, I think many guns and a pile of ammo are good investments. Some of the milsurps go up 50% every two years it seems. Will the gun market crash? I don't know. Will society collapse? I don't know -but guns would be nice to have. [grin]
     
  12. ShadeWPI

    ShadeWPI

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    Totally untrue. Gold is not nearly as conductive as Copper or Silver. Electronics only use gold to plate to provide oxidation protection. Semi-conductors used gold for bonding wires because its soft enough to vibration weld a 1mil diameter wire to a 40mil x 40mil tungsten pad on top of processed silicon, but many semi conductors are moving to copper to reduce resistance.

    Looks like the $350 / oz mining cost is a few years out of date though. The 2011 Q1 world-wide average cost was $620/oz (http://www.im-mining.com/2011/06/21/average-global-gold-mine-cash-cost-now-620oz/) but that's largely to meet demand that is purely based on a belief that it's money.

    In truth, gold is no different than paper dollars in that its only value comes from people being convinced it has value, rather than it having valuable uses (aside from people being convinced it has value)
     
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  13. Rob Boudrie

    Rob Boudrie NES Member

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    The difference is that with gold, the obstacle to adding more to the "money supply" is the cost in terms of resources to mine and refine it. With paper, the cost is negligible and the total supply determined by REMFs rather than laws of physics and nature.
     
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  14. Rider

    Rider

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    Anyway, a couple of interesting stats i was reading shortly after posting: Hedge funds have been selling their positions in futures and ETF's(i.e. mostly synthetic exposures), physical sales were down about 40% in February from the record sales we saw in January, and physical stockpiles are at their highest levels in quite a long time.

    If interested in reading, here you go.
     
  15. OPM

    OPM

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    No it was not. The average reported CASH cost was around that number. Cash cost is nearly meaningless number that has nothing to do with total mining costs of bringing metal to market. Things like depreciation, amortization, depletion, administration, exploration, interest, transportation, refining, taxes, licenses, etc, etc are not included in cash cost of mining. Not to mention that mining cash costs are not calculated using GAAP.

    But please do not let me discourage you from mining me some gold. My offer to buy from you the first 10 tons for $700/oz is still valid.
     
  16. Mr.T

    Mr.T

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    Cash will probably be worthless before silver or gold. It's just a matter of balance to prepare for all possible scenarios: some in the bank to keep large sums safe from common thievery; some on hand for when there is a short-term monetary or infrastructural interruption; some in PM for when the monetary system implodes; some in arms and ammo for when the public safety infrastructure is over-run; some in stored foods and supplies for when there is regional or wide-spread societal breakdown.

    And I wouldn't expect silver to get as low as $20, before heading back up, but who knows what games will be played when.[party]

    You have $22,400,000.00 ?!? [shocked]
    Forget precious metals, just by 20 of everything and set up stocked and fortified hideaways throughout the land. [thumbsup] [laugh]
     
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  17. OPM

    OPM

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    No, but I know people who know people who rob people. [laugh]
     
  18. turbo89

    turbo89

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    Group Buy? Count me in for a few ounces...
     
  19. bullseye

    bullseye NES Member

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    Anything in a bank will be lost to the gov when the markets tank, the gov needs funds to stay afloat and they start sending in the armored vehicles to clean them out. Remember the executive orders signed by Obama, they are the the most sweeping ever, whatever the government needs to survive, the hell with the people.
    Nighttime raids on the banks.
     
  20. OPM

    OPM

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    Highly unlikely. But 401Ks and other pension funds might become gov targets.
     
  21. Horrible

    Horrible NES Member

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    Good call. If I had some $ I could afford to part with, this is what I would be doing.
     
  22. mikem317

    mikem317

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    Even not making an investment is making an investment. [wink]

    I read buying opportunity. With a new house, it's difficult to go full-tilt on these buying dips, but I did buy some silver coins.
     
  23. Rider

    Rider

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    Indeed, it's a good buying opportunity for pretty much everything. With the new refi, and credit union auto loan rates, there is no benefit to pre-paying debts anymore - the interest rates are lower than CPI net mortgage interest deduction. I've always been a no-credit sort of guy, but if ever there was a time to lever up, the past couple of years, and now, is probably the time to do it. Particularly so(hey, this is the survival forum) if you really think that the wheels are coming off and your money will be worthless soon.
     
  24. William Wallace

    William Wallace

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    Jim Rogers had some interesting things to say about this gold/silver dip a couple of days ago. Wish I could find the youtube clip. Summary was... sit out for a while because gold and silver are at the start of a big correction. Not often a commodities perma-bull like Rogers says something like that. One cause of the correction is that India is apparently selling (usually accumulating) off a crap load of gold, which is pushing down prices.
     
  25. Rider

    Rider

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    The rupee has been getting hammered, and since India is the biggest consumer of gold for jewelry, it is bringing down prices. The question mark at the moment is whether the Fed throws a monkey wrench into the works and decides to do QE3 before the Euro zone implosion, which would tend to drive commodity prices up again. If not, then the slide would likely continue, as it looks like globally things are slowing, which should reduce demand, etc.
     
  26. ipscdrl

    ipscdrl

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    Targets? They are already poised to become HUGE cash cows. Think about the vast amounts of money in qualified retirement plans that have been accumulating for the baby boomers. NO tax has yet been paid on all of that money. It will need to be paid at current tax levels when taken out. (we are at historically low tax % rates right now) Don't want/need to take the money out of your 401K? Then the government will require you to take it, (RMD's) or pay a 50% penalty on funds you do not take!
     
  27. Rider

    Rider

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    I think he's referring to things like Nancy Pelosi's suggestion that 401ks and IRAs be nationalized altogether, not simply taxed more. As you say, there is an $18 Trillion dollar pile of money out there that the government wants. It needs the money more than you do. And there are other people who didn't save for retirement. They might as well take it to help the poor people on welfare, since you can just make and save more money later.

    If that doesn't happen, then you are right; they'll just jack up tax rates and the cost of government-provided health care so that you are beggared sooner rather than later.
     
  28. richc

    richc NES Member

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    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...rge-soros-nearly-quadrupled-gold-stake-in-q1/

    "Despite once calling gold the “ultimate bubble,” George Soros’ hedge fund nearly quadrupled its exposure to the SPDR Gold Trust from 85,450 shares in the fourth-quarter to 319,550 shares in the first-quarter. Soros Fund Management also opened a new position through call options in Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), one of the world’s largest gold producers."
     
  29. Soros is one of the biggest greedy bastard weasles that ever walked on two feet. Im wouldn't doubt a bit if he's behind this manipulation of gold and silver prices in the past several days.
     
  30. ShadeWPI

    ShadeWPI

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    In 2011, 27% of world gold consumption was in India for jewelry (approximately 800 ton). They're an enormous portion of the world market. If the investment community (50% of the world market for gold consumption) turns bear, the price will crash hard.
     

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