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This is the real flaw in Washington Post's report is trusting poll numbers analysis by Wonkblog. Who here would give a truthful answer on gun ownership to Gallup or the General Social Survey (GSS)?Duke University's unofficial anti-gun chair said:A survey that attempted to estimate the stock of guns would have to get honest responses from the 5% of the adults who own the bulk of all guns, and my speculation is that they would be even more reluctant today than 20 years ago to divulge the fact that have, say, 30 or 40 guns in their home
WSJ blog said:Who answers the phone in the household could affect responses. “We know that in a survey where respondents are randomly selected from adults in the household, a household headed by a married couple is substantially more likely to report guns in the home if the husband is selected than if the wife is selected,” said Philip Cook, an economist and gun-violence researcher at Duke University.
Also, some gun owners may be reluctant to tell researchers they own guns, because of legal and political considerations, which makes the question more like behavioral or attitudinal questions than like questions that ask basic facts about respondents. “This is an unusual demographic-type question,” said Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup.
That is the argument cited by those who think Gallup’s higher counts for gun ownership are more realistic than lower counts from the General Social Survey, which is run out of NORC, an affiliate research institution at the University of Chicago. Gallup’s survey, and some others that count more gun owners, are conducted over the phone, while the GSS is fielded in person.
“People are very reluctant to admit they own guns in phone surveys,” said Andrew Arulanandam, spokesman for the National Rifle Association, which uses Gallup’s numbers, not GSS’s. “We suspect they would probably be more reluctant to disclose that to someone at their front door asking them pretty personal questions.”
Asked why that effect would have grown, since the GSS has always been conducted primarily in-person, (NRA spokesman) Arulanandam said, “Could one speculate that with all these gun-control measures, people are less likely to divulge gun-ownership status? Yes, but I can’t say that definitively. I don’t think anyone can.”
However, some phone surveys, such as Pew’s, agree with the GSS’s findings. Tom W. Smith, director of the GSS, added that phone surveys aren’t necessarily anonymous: “The caller knows the person’s phones number and from databases often a lot more. In addition, some ask for name and/or address.”
As for the honesty of gun owners in surveys, Smith pointed to a 2001 experiment he conducted among nearly 800 holders of concealed-carry permits in five states. These holders were added to the survey, to see if they would respond honestly about their gun ownership. And 94% did. “I did not expect the level of admitting [to having guns] to be so high,” Smith said.
I have no guns. They were all lost in a tragic fishing / trap shooting off of the back of a boat accident 25 miles out to sea.
They estimate “the average gun owner now owns 8 guns...