Varmint
NES Member
The FED has been doing this for over a year now.
In order for the banks to survive they need more profit margin (eyeroll) and we are sitting at interest rates of 1/4 of 1%.
The FED needs to raise interest rates another 1/4 of 1% and then banks will have the necessary breathing room.
We all know the economy does not now indicate this is necessary nor prudent -- the FED just keeps on talking it up looking for an angle to justify another rise in interest rates.
The country with the highest interest rates drives that country's currency the highest as well as money will move to the higher interest rates from around the world.
Oil is traded in dollars making our dollar the world currency. When the dollar rises in value the price of oil should fall in value.
This morning (for example) the dollar is up 0.29 on the threat of interest rate hikes yet the price of oil should be falling yet it is up also 0.52 above $50 a barrel for the first time in months.
We are seeing a divergence. Oil has risen on just the threat of Saudi agreeing to cut production to support oil prices.
Yet we have the highest surplus oil in storage ever right now and our own companies are starting to drill again as well.
Oil should be tanking down yet is not.
TPTB know maybe something like a WAR coming or hurricane going to badly disrupt things or earthquake coming or election results (insert SHTF scenario here) ?
Oil should be falling.
In an election year we have a sideways market until election day which is also going on right now.
Then based on outcome or NOT markets historically make a great move higher or lower through the end of that year.
Folks are contemplating setting up trades in both directions and then once that direction is known cut the loses on the losing direction and holding the other trade allowing it to maximize profits on those trades.
I think you have it completely backwards. Yes, banks do make more with higher interest rates, but they really make their money off a strong economy and strong stock market. This is why the Fed (the big banks) have kept interest rates so low for so long, it's the only way to keep the stock & bond markets inflated.
If they were to raise interest rates much more than a token 0.25%, they would crash the economy and stock/bond markets, which have been living entirely off Fed easy money policy for 7 years now. That would not be good for banks.
So when the Fed talks about raising rates 'soon', nobody believes them anymore, they know the Fed can't raise rates, they'll find some excuse to delay in December just like they've been delaying every quarter for the last several years.
forget the idea in your head that the stock market is being driven by this, or that. It's global Fed policy, that's it. Nothing else matters to the markets now.