deciding on a retreat

[JayMcB]

Might have been three. This possibility actually had never occurred to my friend beforehand and he was more than a bit naive about the whole thing.



I like apocalypse porn as much as the next guy and seeing as we're talking TEOTWAWKI that may not help you. You would want to be the sniper not the snipee and that means familiar terrain and being among people you know. The idea of taking your family to a retreat is only workable if law enforcement and public order remain pretty much intact.

I found a lot of good ideas for realistic planning for what I think is a possible level of social and economic disruption in Ferfal's account of the 2001 Argentina economic collapse. One of the points he made is that being in an isolated rural location made people easy victims for criminal gangs. Being in a big city was not great either. The sweet spot in Argentina at least turned out to be in locations with medium population density - suburbs - where there is room for chickens and vegetable gardens, etc.

First, reading your previous posts, I respect your intellect. (No BS)

I'm in a metro-west suburb, as are you.

Our house here - I have a +/-2 acre lot, and already have chickens with an enclosed run and a vegetable garden. I've got stored fuel, enough heating fuel to get me through 1 heating season. Enough propane to cook for a year (literally). Our house abuts a ~30 acre conservation area. I also have considerably more firearms than your average metro-west denizen. Framingham center, AKA metrowest FSA central, is less than 7 miles by road from my house. Barely 2 hours at an easy walk, a shorter bike ride, and an even shorter drive on a motorcycle if the roads are clogged. I estimate that we have maybe a week if it goes Argentina-level south. We have almost NO chance of any kind of long term survival there. The population density is simply too high. Everyone will be overrun. It is almost inevitable.

If you think you have a chance, that's a normalcy bias you may want to revisit.

the other reason I don't want to be 'here' is I don't want to have to decide if I need to shoot someone I know who has gone FSA/feral. It's my food. It's my dirt. It's my gas. It's my <insert here>

 

[mibro]

I estimate that we have maybe a week if it goes Argentina-level south. We have almost NO chance of any kind of long term survival there. The population density is simply too high. Everyone will be overrun. It is almost inevitable.

You could be right. I'm a bit more optimistic, at least when it comes to an Argentina type economic collapse. Life would be harder and there would be more crime but I think you'd be OK in your suburban homestead. I'm impressed with your preps, btw.

 

[fivepak]

I live in Nashua and my wife and I are looking north for a get-a-way/retirement retreat. I want privacy and distance from population centers, a place to hunt on my own land. None of it for prepper reasons, but because I just prefer it. If things truly went south I think by the time the hordes reach as far north as I’m going they’ll have been thinned out pretty well. If facing a bug out now situation I would hope I saw the signs to get out early. I have a 32’ travel trailer with slider that can haul enough to get me through for a bit. That eliminates storing supplies where locals can steal it. A smart person would spend enough time in their retreat locale to make a few local friends that would look after the place.

Can anyone point to a world event where cities emptied out short of world war? I’m thinking that being prepared for short term emergencies is enough. If it was TEOTWAWKI and I died, then I guess my number was up. Most of the scenarios mentioned in threads like this are the product of watching too many movies.

 

[mibro]

Can anyone point to a world event where cities emptied out short of world war? I’m thinking that being prepared for short term emergencies is enough. If it was TEOTWAWKI and I died, then I guess my number was up. Most of the scenarios mentioned in threads like this are the product of watching too many movies.

I think that's exactly right. My "preps" extend to being ready for a 30 day power outage following a hurricane or epic ice storm.

I don't think TEOTWAWKI is completely impossible but it's very unlikely. The one scenario I can imagine is the electric grid going down for some extended period but even in the case of a massive solar flare - a Carrington event - I think the grid would suffer less damage and be repaired sooner than the worst case scenarios in some novels.

The fact that so many people are thinking about what might happen is an effect of the uncertainty of our times. We can see the recklessness of our government and the mounting national debt and no-one really knows how that will play out. I would not want to be at the other end of the spectrum like some people I know in New York who live in a high rise and exist with an empty refrigerator, buying their food or eating out one meal at a time. They are 100% dependent on everything working, all the time.

 

[namedpipes]

I think that's exactly right. My "preps" extend to being ready for a 30 day power outage following a hurricane or epic ice storm.

I don't think TEOTWAWKI is completely impossible but it's very unlikely. ...

Let's say your preps are inadequate for a true TEOTWAWKI situation.

Are they less inadequate than the preps of someone that has done nothing at all? (Like that hi rise dweller)

Having gone as far as you have you have a better chance of surfing that global disaster than someone else.

And frankly, if it is THAT bad that even your preps aren't enough, do you really want to be the last man on earth, being chased 24x7 by zombies?

 

[clampett]

Can anyone point to a world event where cities emptied out short of world war? I’m thinking that being prepared for short term emergencies is enough. If it was TEOTWAWKI and I died, then I guess my number was up. Most of the scenarios mentioned in threads like this are the product of watching too many movies.[/QUOTE]

How about the great depression. My Dad was born in 1929,he spent his entire youth struggling to survive. His family would raise chickens and grow vegetables. My Grandma would can the vegetables in mason jars.
Todays society does not have the knowledge or the skill to survive another great depression. The FSA isn't the only thing to fear, it is the majority of the unskilled population.

 

[Varmint]

How about the great depression. My Dad was born in 1929,he spent his entire youth struggling to survive. His family would raise chickens and grow vegetables. My Grandma would can the vegetables in mason jars.
Todays society does not have the knowledge or the skill to survive another great depression. The FSA isn't the only thing to fear, it is the majority of the unskilled population.

i think this scenario is far more likely than the zombie/plague/cuban paratrooper scenarios. hell, the government and federal reserve are all be guaranteeing a great depression with their policies.

In this scenario we'd all likely lose our jobs, but you'd still have electricity and cops. Probably massive inflation since the government would keep spending but would have no revenues, and would have to jack up interest rates to sell its debt.

 

[namedpipes]

i think this scenario is far more likely than the zombie/plague/cuban paratrooper scenarios. hell, the government and federal reserve are all be guaranteeing a great depression with their policies.

In this scenario we'd all likely lose our jobs, but you'd still have electricity and cops. Probably massive inflation since the government would keep spending but would have no revenues, and would have to jack up interest rates to sell its debt.

Unless the finance industry collapses at the same time (and I mean COLLAPSES) then those banks will be looking to collect your deed when you lose your job.

Electricity will be for the wealthy.

 

[In God We Trust]

I consider myself reasonably prepped. I can feed for family for close to a year if I can harvest some fish and small game to supplement. If it's a mad max scenerio, I'm not going to make it.

We all have to die sometime, but we have to live our lives and be realistic also. I don't think doomsday is going to come in my time

 

[Admin]

I think everybody would agree a major factor in many people's BOL is deciding when to leave. Leaving your home because it's bad (unlawfulness) means what ever is left there is pretty much toast including the building. Failing to leave soon enough could have severe consequences as well.

As others have stated, a rarely used cabin is almost always known to the locals. If shit seriously got bad if you have friends guarding it there is a good chance it's emptied by the time you get there.

 

[JayMcB]

You could be right. I'm a bit more optimistic, at least when it comes to an Argentina type economic collapse. Life would be harder and there would be more crime but I think you'd be OK in your suburban homestead. I'm impressed with your preps, btw.

Getting a propane tank and biobricks delivered don't really count as preps - next to some of the folks on here. I am getting pretty OK at raising laying chickens, however, and their manure is the most amazing fertilizer you've ever seen, once you get past the smell.

 

[Varmint]

Unless the finance industry collapses at the same time (and I mean COLLAPSES) then those banks will be looking to collect your deed when you lose your job.

Electricity will be for the wealthy.

Then the banks will be bankrupt, and our worthless houses will be the least of their concerns. You might be better to walk away if you're underwater at that point.

The US government is going to amp up the welfare state to absurd levels - free electricity, years of unemployment insurance etc - all paid for my Treasury bonds (at escalating rates) and the Fed balance sheet.

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I think everybody would agree a major factor in many people's BOL is deciding when to leave. Leaving your home because it's bad (unlawfulness) means what ever is left there is pretty much toast including the building. Failing to leave soon enough could have severe consequences as well.

As others have stated, a rarely used cabin is almost always known to the locals. If shit seriously got bad if you have friends guarding it there is a good chance it's emptied by the time you get there.

I really think you will need a group of preppers, or some sort of community, to survive.

 

[fivepak]

How about the great depression. My Dad was born in 1929,he spent his entire youth struggling to survive. His family would raise chickens and grow vegetables. My Grandma would can the vegetables in mason jars.
Todays society does not have the knowledge or the skill to survive another great depression. The FSA isn't the only thing to fear, it is the majority of the unskilled population.

But again, cities wouldn't empty out causing the desperate hordes. Things would be tough, but money will still be good. We have enough right now to handle a fairly long tough period. If Mac & Cheese is on the menu every night, so be it.

How many here are prepped for some unlikely scenario, but eat like crap, smoke, and are more than 50 pounds over weight?

TEOTWAWKI = likely

dying of a heart attack due to poor life choices = unlikely

I think many hardcore preppers are gun guys that dream of a mad max scenario when they can finally put on their chest rig, sling their best AR, and go face the zombie hordes.

 

[namedpipes]

Then the banks will be bankrupt, and our worthless houses will be the least of their concerns. You might be better to walk away if you're underwater at that point. ...

Right. Hence my comment about financial industry collapse.

... The US government is going to amp up the welfare state to absurd levels - free electricity, years of unemployment insurance etc - all paid for my Treasury bonds (at escalating rates) and the Fed balance sheet. ...

I certainly HOPE so!

If they don't, the inevitable day of reckoning will be put off decades. Things simply can't continue forever the way they are. It isn't sustainable. Let's hurry it along.

It wasn't our kids and grandkids that made this mess. Why should they get stuck cleaning it up? WE should have forced the issue as far back as the 70's or 80's.

 

[Kevin_NH]

Unless the finance industry collapses at the same time (and I mean COLLAPSES) then those banks will be looking to collect your deed when you lose your job.

Then the banks will be bankrupt, and our worthless houses will be the least of their concerns. You might be better to walk away if you're underwater at that point.

Once the US dollar drops 90% of it's value, I can cash in my IRA or trade a few pounds of coffee for sufficient "worthless" dollars to pay off my mortgage. Unlike my worthless IRA, I can sleep inside my "worthless" house.

I really think you will need a group of preppers, or some sort of community, to survive.

Depending on what type of disaster you're looking to survive, of course. OTOH, most people who are part of a large group of well-stocked preppers aren't going to be posting in the NES "Survival Forum" about their plans.

 

[Admin]

I think many hardcore preppers are gun guys that dream of a mad max scenario when they can finally put on their chest rig, sling their best AR, and go face the zombie hordes.

Good for them

 

[Varmint]

I think many hardcore preppers are gun guys that dream of a mad max scenario when they can finally put on their chest rig, sling their best AR, and go face the zombie hordes.

Hell yeah, that sounds like fun!

 

[Varmint]

Once the US dollar drops 90% of it's value, I can cash in my IRA or trade a few pounds of coffee for sufficient "worthless" dollars to pay off my mortgage.

In this scenario, interest rates might be say 15%, and your mortgage still 4%, so your mortgage will be very easy to pay off with your IRA, which is earning 15%.

 

[JayMcB]

In this scenario, interest rates might be say 15%, and your mortgage still 4%, so your mortgage will be very easy to pay off with your IRA, which is earning 15%.

if you have (either) one

somehow I doubt the rate of return on rapidly inflated dollars will even keep up. The banksters have a stacked deck; they always win

 

[Prepper]

if you have (either) one

somehow I doubt the rate of return on rapidly inflated dollars will even keep up. The banksters have a stacked deck; they always win

Plus, if things got really bad with hyperinflation threatening to wipe out most of the debt held by the bankers, the government would do something that'd benefit the bankers at the expense of everyone holding mortgages. I am guessing they would do something such as rewrite the mortgage contracts so you suddenly owe more, or at a higher rate of interest, or both. After all, it's only fair because the poor bankers didn't know this would happen even though the central banking system is actually designed to inflate until it fails.

 

[Varmint]

if you have (either) one

somehow I doubt the rate of return on rapidly inflated dollars will even keep up. The banksters have a stacked deck; they always win

Yeah, it depends on whether we have 1970s inflation, or Weimar Republic-type inflation. Either way, your mortgage will be a fixed rate and fixed amount of dollars, which is good in an inflationary environment, you'll pay it off with cheap dollars.

That sort of assumes you either have a job or lots of cash.

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Plus, if things got really bad with hyperinflation threatening to wipe out most of the debt held by the bankers, the government would do something that'd benefit the bankers at the expense of everyone holding mortgages. I am guessing they would do something such as rewrite the mortgage contracts so you suddenly owe more, or at a higher rate of interest, or both. After all, it's only fair because the poor bankers didn't know this would happen even though the central banking system is actually designed to inflate until it fails.

No, nothing so devious or complicated as that, they will simply pay off the bank's debts, another bail-out.

They just recently started making derivatives backed by the Federal government - they know what is coming.

 

[Prepper]

No, nothing so devious or complicated as that, they will simply pay off the bank's debts, another bail-out.

They just recently started making derivatives backed by the Federal government - they know what is coming.

That would be the safer option for them. If they "inflated" the amount I owe on the mortgage, I'd simply stop paying. I suspect most people would do likewise.

Still, they'd do it by printing more money, which robs value from all existing money, effectively stealing from anyone who has money or is earning money.

 

[JayMcB]

Yeah, it depends on whether we have 1970s inflation, or Weimar Republic-type inflation. Either way, your mortgage will be a fixed rate and fixed amount of dollars, which is good in an inflationary environment, you'll pay it off with cheap dollars.

That sort of assumes you either have a job or lots of cash.

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No, nothing so devious or complicated as that, they will simply pay off the bank's debts, another bail-out.

They just recently started making derivatives backed by the Federal government - they know what is coming.

Right, Liz Warren and the other demorats had that inserted into the last omnibus spending bill. http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertl...n-on-trading-derivatives-backed-by-uncle-sam/

It pisses me off that they haven't passed a fvcking budget in years, and these spending bills are their no-accountability replacement

 

[evalance]

Looking for a place too in maine 5 acres plus prefer water + cabin or something budget is 60k cash

 

[Varmint]

Can anyone point to a world event where cities emptied out short of world war? I’m thinking that being prepared for short term emergencies is enough. If it was TEOTWAWKI and I died, then I guess my number was up. Most of the scenarios mentioned in threads like this are the product of watching too many movies.

Yeah, it's a bit unrealistic - what could drive people out?

Radioactive Contamination - this might happen to one city (dirty bomb), but not likely to enough cities to overwhelm the government such that SHTF, short of nuclear war, and then the city people will be dead anyway.

Starvation - definitely would drive people out eventually - but not as a mass exodus. People would stay in their homes for the first few weeks.

Long-term power outage - people would probably try to go to friends/family, not just randomly walk or drive into the country.

Disease - I think people would shelter at home, not head for the hills.

 

[Kevin_NH]

With a slow moving disease (e.g. Black Plague), in many cases people fled the cities in advance of the disease.

IMHO, in the case of a complete breakdown of civil order (Think LA Riots if neither the National Guard nor regular army had been deployed by day 4), people in the cities will only "shelter in place" for a week at most. If the situation does not improve, city dwellers will flee randomly to the perceived safety of the countryside.

 

[rudiewhitebwoy]

My wife and I have been looking for years in Coös County, we even spend our anniversary in Pittsburg every year just driving around trying to get a feel for the people and the lay of the land. I know a bunch of North Shore people that either have places up there or that have permanently relocated to the "Indian Stream Republic". Our first grandchild is due on our anniversary this year so no trip. I tried to get my daughter to change her due date to no avail. I now realize why we haven't been able to find our place, it seems JayMcB got there first. The "Backstop" would be the place for your LP/OP and or Overwatch, nobody coming up behind you and a clear field of fire in front. A 20 acre parcel in the middle of the woods seems secluded until the land owners around you clear the land, then it gets really small quick. Best to border a Federal/State/Town forest or conservancy land, that way even thought it's not your land, you'll always have that buffer. I've been straying from Coös County lately, checking out stuff in Grafton, Sullivan, Merrimack, Cheshire & Hillsborough. Seasonal residence's get plundered by the locals and in many places I don't think the cops take it too seriously. If you can have someone you trust occupy your retreat that would be good. Of course the best way is to move to your bugout, before you have to bugout.

 

[Varmint]

Seasonal residence's get plundered by the locals and in many places I don't think the cops take it too seriously. If you can have someone you trust occupy your retreat that would be good. Of course the best way is to move to your bugout, before you have to bugout.

do you mean residences that have supplies, or are they plundering things like TVs and furniture?

 

[Kevin_NH]

"I accidentally the whole thing"

do you mean residences that have supplies, or are they plundering things like TVs and furniture?

Either way, small potatoes. In Oregon, they take the whole thing.

 

[rudiewhitebwoy]

do you mean residences that have supplies, or are they plundering things like TVs and furniture?

I mean anything of value; snowmobiles, ATVs, Boats, Guns, Food, Fishing Tackle, Chainsaws, Clothing, Furniture, Copper Wire & Plumbing, Tools, Cookware and even a Recipe Book. These are all things stolen from people I know with seasonal residences. Most stuff probably gets pawned or scrapped right away by local kids with a habit to feed. A guy that works for me had his Gun Safe stolen about 10 years ago. It was bolted to the floor. The crooks just wrapped a chain around it and pulled it out the front door. After that, he put in a much bigger safe and bolted it to the floor and inside wall. The crooks couldn't get the safe off the wall so the punched holes though the wall and pulled the safe, wall & all through the exterior wall of the house. When my Dad had a seasonal place in NH, I thought of this. Not having to worry about Mass storage laws up there, I had various Guns & Ammo built into the walls. Not for quick access but just to have a small cache somewhere besides my house. When he was selling the place he told me to come get my stuff if someone hadn't already stolen it as people would break in during the off season. He couldn't believe where I had stuff. I'm a big believer in hiding in plain sight.