What's a good standard deviation?

EddieCoyle

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When loading pistol ammo, what std. deviation should I be "shooting" for?

What's good, mediocre, and bad?

Obviously, lower is better, but what's a good number?

For example, today I chronoed some new 9mm loads (6.0grs Power Pistol w/124gr FMJs). Ten shot groups had an average velocity of 1225fps, an extreme spread of 42 fps and a std deviation of 13.

Is that good?
 
Having read many of your posts I would think your experience at this is in the top 5% on this forum. A standard deviation of .01 +- sounds very consistent to me. How does this compare with all your experimenting with the 500.
 
Having read many of your posts I would think your experience at this is in the top 5% on this forum. A standard deviation of .01 +- sounds very consistent to me. How does this compare with all your experimenting with the 500.
Yeah, that.^^^

Your numbers are better than factory Speer Gold Dot +P 124gr, if that's any indication.

http://www.rothenbuhler.com/gun/golddot.htm
 
I'm sure that you know, but for the benefit of others, low SD does not mean accuracy by itself.

I look at SD only as an indication of whether a load has room for improvement.
I would not change a load with +/- 1% velocity variations if it consistently shoots well.

On the other hand, a load with a decent velocity SD that still doesn't shoot well would tell me to look for problems with the bullet, not the powder charge.

These are the things that make handloading an interesting hobby.

Jack
 
Having read many of your posts I would think your experience at this is in the top 5% on this forum.

Thanks, but I think you're mistaking arrogance for ability.

Let's hear from the top 1%:

I'm sure that you know, but for the benefit of others, low SD does not mean accuracy by itself.

I look at SD only as an indication of whether a load has room for improvement.
I would not change a load with +/- 1% velocity variations if it consistently shoots well.

On the other hand, a load with a decent velocity SD that still doesn't shoot well would tell me to look for problems with the bullet, not the powder charge.

These are the things that make handloading an interesting hobby.

Jack
Jack,

That's what's so friggin baffling. The loads above were inaccurate. I was lucky to get 4" groups at 10 yards with a G17 (which I normally shoot well). I switched to a S&W 5606 (which I seem to always shoot well) and saw similar results.

Just to make sure I could still shoot, I switched to an ancient S&W M&P (.38 SPL revolver) with 148gr plated DEWCs, avg velocity of 644, SD of 40(!) and put 12 shots into one big ragged hole.

I figured that maybe it was a "revolver day" so I tried the 9mms in a S&W 547 (which is essentially a 9mm Model 10) and got a 3-1/2" group.


The DEWCs above are the second most accurate loads I make. The most accurate are some for the .460 with an average velocity of around 1950 and a standard deviation of under 5.

EDIT: The 9mms were not crappy bullets. They were FMJ Winchesters that measured exactly .355" and weighed within a couple of grains of each other (at least the 20 or so that I weighed after the fact did).
 
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You raise a complex question, and one for which, so far as I can divine, there is at the moment no clear answer.

Let us start with the basics. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the implied tendency of members of a “population” to deviate from the mean, based on the observed tendency of members of a “sample” to deviate from the mean.

With respect to ammunition, if we hypothesize that exactly identical reloading will yield exactly identical velocity, Standard Deviation implies a measure of the degree to which reloading was not exactly equal (i.e., was a bit sloppy).

However, the hypothesis is too simple, because even if you could make two exactly identical rounds, factors other than a difference in their construction could produce a variation in their measured velocity: for example, grain-to-grain variability in the combustion velocity of propellent, round-to-round variability in the brisance of primers, small but significant differences in headspacing, differences in ambient and in chamber temperature, the effect of the firing of a prior round on the mechanical impedence incurred by the bullet of a subsequent round traveling through the same bore, and probably a whole bunch of others.

At the same time, we hypothesize that consistency or variability of bullet velocity has a direct effect on group size (at least in terms of vertical spread). This makes sense, at least theoretically, because all other things being equal bullet velocity at the point of exiting the muzzle directly affects the shape of the ballistic curve.

And yet we have seen too many consistent reports where loads with a higher SD (implying a greater variability of muzzle shot-to-shot muzzle velocity) print smaller groups than loads with a lower SD. The vice, it seems, lies in the qualifier “all other things being equal.”

Apparently, “all other things” are not equal, and the problem is that no one seems to have a firm idea (or, better yet, some empirical proof) of what they are.

Which leads to this conclusion: when the SD of measured shot-to-shot velocity achieves a certain lower limit, it is safe to assume that other factors affecting group size have become dominant, and the quest for greater consistency of velocity (i.e., a lower SD) is a waste of effort. What is that lower limit? Since no one else knows for sure, I certainly can’t claim to, but I’d venture it reasonable to assume the line is somewhere in the range of 1-2% of nominal muzzle velocity.
 
....
That's what's so friggin baffling. The loads above were inaccurate. ...

Just for fun, roll a handfull across the table and see if the bullets are seated straight. A chunk of crud stuck in the seater or a poor match between the bullet shape and the seater plug might cause a problem.

Jack
 
Funny. I don't shoot a ton of 9mm but that IS my load. Here is my data. I'm very surprised you are getting such velocity.

Sig P228, 124gr Berrys, 6.0gr PP, WSP primer, 1.130" COL, 80 degrees, 7/17/2007

Hi 1092
Lo 1059
Av 1076
Es 33
Sd 10
 
Thanks for the explanation RKG.

I'm very surprised you are getting such velocity.

I think it's the bullet shape. The Winchester bullets that I'm using have a longer, pointier nose and have less bearing surface than the Berrys.

Since they're longer, they seat deeper in the case (and I loaded them a bit shorter than you at 1.115") than the Berrys and run at a higher pressure. Also, less bearing surface means less friction. At least that's my theory, and I'm sticking to it.

FWIW, the same rounds ran about 75fps slower through a Luger than they did through a G17.

Just for fun, roll a handful across the table and see if the bullets are seated straight. A chunk of crud stuck in the seater or a poor match between the bullet shape and the seater plug might cause a problem.

I shot all the rounds I loaded, but I did load some new ones last night with a lighter charge (5.7gr as opposed to 6.0gr) and those rolled pretty good. It doesn't surprise me, I'm using a Hornady seating die with the sliding collar that pre-aligns the bullet before seating.
 
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This sounds just like what I read about in Lee Relaoding second edition pg 136. They are talking about cast bullets and compressive strength in regards to chamber pressure, I don't know if fmj's are so much stronger it doesn't pertain but it clearly shows if you get to much chamber pressure and go beyond the comp. strength of the bullet accuracy goes down. Speer # 13 talks about different barrels and guns have varying effects on both press. and velocity. Just a thought
 
So if SD isn't a reliable indicator of accuracy, and although velocity is related to pressure but not necessarily a measure of safe v. unsafe pressure, what is the value of a chronograph in reloading? Unless I'm trying to load to a certain velocity (to meet a handgun power factor, or drive a hunting bullet in the proper velocity range) what would I do with the chronograph data?
 
So if SD isn't a reliable indicator of accuracy, and although velocity is related to pressure but not necessarily a measure of safe v. unsafe pressure, what is the value of a chronograph in reloading? Unless I'm trying to load to a certain velocity (to meet a handgun power factor, or drive a hunting bullet in the proper velocity range) what would I do with the chronograph data?

Chrono data gives you points of reference for comparing loads independent of your perception and your ability to be accurate.
 
So if SD isn't a reliable indicator of accuracy, and although velocity is related to pressure but not necessarily a measure of safe v. unsafe pressure, what is the value of a chronograph in reloading? Unless I'm trying to load to a certain velocity (to meet a handgun power factor, or drive a hunting bullet in the proper velocity range) what would I do with the chronograph data?

Uncle O,

Chronograph data can be useful if you are comparing your results to published loading data.

Consistent velocity SD by itself is not a guarantee of acceptable accuracy. It is a good indicator, but there are other factors that also affect accuracy.

There is no such thing as too much information about the performance of your handloads, but it is important to understand that no single factor can overcome the effects of all the others.

It takes consistent ignition, a consistent charge weight of the right powder, cases of uniform capacity, length, and neck tension, a good quality bullet seated straight and concentric with the case to make ammunition that is capable of good accuracy.

When you add the many variables that the firearm introduces, it is easier to see why the loading manuals list so many different loads for each caliber and bullet weight.

Like I said, these are the things that make handloading interesting.

Jack
 
Jack,

I'm fairly new to reloading, and trying to keep things simple to start. I am careful about consistency and staying within published data, and although I have read (and been told) that chronograph data is essential to reloading, it just didn't make sense to me at this stage. Once I find a load that I like, collecting chrono data to benchmark it makes great sense. Or perhaps use it to troubleshoot loads that I don't like.

Thanks for the input.
 
EC, I was wondering what type of scale you use for weighing various components, and do you or others go as far as weighing individual cases, bullets, etc? Is this something that I should consider? I can only measure to within +/- .1 grain on my beam scale. Should I invest in a electronic scale, and if so, which would offer most accuracy vs. cost?
Thanks, Johnny
 
EC, I was wondering what type of scale you use for weighing various components, and do you or others go as far as weighing individual cases, bullets, etc? Is this something that I should consider? I can only measure to within +/- .1 grain on my beam scale. Should I invest in a electronic scale, and if so, which would offer most accuracy vs. cost?
Thanks, Johnny

I use a PACT digital scale like this one:

image

I've had very good luck with it, although others that have tried them had problems. It too has a +/- .1 grain resolution.

I never weigh cases. I sort brass by headstamp to eliminate the brands that I don't want to load. The only time I weigh bullets is to weigh a small handful when I first open the package to make sure they are what they say they are.
 
A quick follow-up:

I decreased the powder charge by .3 grains (from 6.0 to 5.7) and the groups tightened up. Further decreases didn't seem to help accuracy so I think I've found the load I'll use. I haven't chronoed these yet.
 
A quick follow-up:

I decreased the powder charge by .3 grains (from 6.0 to 5.7) and the groups tightened up. Further decreases didn't seem to help accuracy so I think I've found the load I'll use. I haven't chronoed these yet.

I'm surprised I missed this two years ago: I hope you are a believer in "better late than never."

What you have done is to identify one of the "all other things being equal" factors that is not always equal.

It is well known that a firearm barrel begins vibrate as the slug travels through the bore. For analytical purposes, folks tend to model barrels as fixed in position at the breech end and untethered (except by internal flexural rigidity) at the muzzel end -- this convention models free-floated target rifles but isn't all that accurate for auto pistols. In any event, the result of the vibration is that, if we plotted the location of the exact center of the muzzle during the time of bullet travel through the bore in a two-dimensional mode, we'd get a circle.

Two propositions follow. One: the smaller the circle, the more accurate the firearm. This, for instance, is why thick wall barrels and no-taper barrels tend to be more accurate than thin or tapered barrels. Two: regardless of the radius of muzzle deviation, if the bullet always leaves the muzzle at the same instant, and therefore at the same point of muzzle deviation, the more accurate the firearm will be. This is the underlying reason why consistency of velocity is important to accuracy, and it is more important than the effect of velocity consistency on exterior ballistics. (Note, for instance, that differential velocity in terms of exterior ballistics should open our groups only in the vertical spread, but we observe that inaccurate groups still tend to be sort of round.)

However, there is a third factor at work, and that is that the frequency of barrel vibration is also a function of the velocity with which the bullet travels the bore, and at certain frequencies the muzzle deviation will be smaller than at others. In addition, this relationship is not linear, but rather harmonic. This is why, as a very broad generality (and derived mainly from rifle experience than pistol experience): the fastest loads are seldom the most accurate. It also explains why folks often experience: a) an accuracy increase with a slight reduction in velocity, and then b) an accuracy decrease with a further velocity reduction. What you are doing is swinging through a nodal "sweet spot."

And the problem with all of the foregoing is that, even for two nominally identical firearms, no two barrels are alike. Which is why load development for accuracy is firearm specific.

Sorry if this is TMI.
 
I remember an article I read several years ago which was an interview with barrel maker Bo Clerke. He claimed that the only relevant statistic was extreme spread; SD just didn't matter.
 
I remember an article I read several years ago which was an interview with barrel maker Bo Clerke. He claimed that the only relevant statistic was extreme spread; SD just didn't matter.

Es is bs and has no bearing on accurate ammo. The sample size is 2. Not a lot of info to base decisions off. SD has much more info to offer. Unless you like to base chrone data off 5 rounds or something like that.
 
Es is bs and has no bearing on accurate ammo. The sample size is 2. Not a lot of info to base decisions off. SD has much more info to offer. Unless you like to base chrone data off 5 rounds or something like that.

This is correct. ES will grow as sample size grows; SD will not (provided all samples are drawn from the same population).
 
This is correct. ES will grow as sample size grows; SD will not (provided all samples are drawn from the same population).

Theoretically ES is infinite, but not in reality unless the sample size is. It has to have a high and a low value. 99.7 % of the sample will fall with in +/- 3 SD of the mean. Es will only grow until a point. I was a little off.... It occurred to me the other day that if ES is not 3 times SD then some of the sample is not being randomly generated and it is time to look for loading problems. Other than that I ignore it.
 
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