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Why can't we just blow up N Korea now?

tele_mark said:
Well, if he only blows up California, I don't really see the harm.....
Yes, but just think of all the hippies in Seattle who are at risk... oh wait. Maybe we should reward him if he can get rid of Hollywood and hundreds of thousands of hippies all at the same time. [laugh]

But seriously, as my momma always said, "he's cruisin' for a bruisin'..."
 
OK but lest not blow up Ronnie's library!
2001936911.jpg
 
There's a good reason for the US to be quiet about a successful missle-defense operation: The main reason that NK is doing these launches is that it wants to sell it's missle technology to other rogue states. If the product sucks, no one will buy.

Let's hypothesize for a moment that the defense worked. There could be two ways the US could capitalize on the success.
1. The US could publicize the success, and the deterrent effect would be quite substantial. That would benefit us and anyone we chose to defend.
Or,
2. The US could choose to deny any involvement, in which case the NK product would appear shoddy--missles that blow up without effect. No one will buy such shoddy merchandise. The working missles will not be distributed across the world AND NK won't get the economic benefit of arms deals. That would benefit us substantially as well by halting the spread of high-technology arms to rogue states. Also a NK regime without arms-trade money is that much weaker and closer to collapse...
 
I recieved this email this morning. It has a few good points.
Geopolitical Diary: Pyongyang 's U.S. Independence Day Fireworks
July 05, 2006 04 30 GMT



North Korea launched several missiles into the East Sea , aka the Sea of Japan, early July 5 local time; the first launch apparently coincided with the July 4 local time U.S. launch of the space shuttle. The tests come amid increased diplomatic efforts to prevent a launch of the Taepodong-2 and to bring North Korea and the United States back to the six-party nuclear talks. Pyongyang apparently has decided these efforts were insufficient.

Reports continue to conflict, but it now appears North Korea tested as many as four missiles, including a medium-range Rodong missile and a Taepodong-2 long-range missile. North Korea appears to have launched two medium-range missiles, either Scuds or Rodongs, prior to launching the Taepodong. The two initial tests may have been launched to gauge U.S. and Japanese response or as decoys prior to the Taepodong-2 launch. The gamble didn't pay off, however, as the Taepodong-2 apparently failed just 35 seconds after liftoff.

For North Korea , any launch was risky. Pyongyang is extremely reluctant to test any of its medium- or long-range missiles, as such tests expose the capabilities -- or lack thereof -- of its weapons systems. North Korea has only tested its primary, medium-range Rodong missile once. Likewise, the Taepodong-1 was only launched once, in 1998, when it failed to place a satellite into orbit. If confirmed, the current Taepodong-2 test was also likely a satellite launch, offering Pyongyang enough ambiguity regarding whether its launch related to civilian or military ends to keep countries like South Korea , Japan and the United States from coming to a common plan of follow-on action.

The failure of the Taepodong-2 test is not that unusual, given North Korea 's minimal testing so far. Both the United States and the Soviet Union also had plenty of failures early on. Only later did those two nations throw more money, technology and individuals on their space-development programs. This will do little to assuage Pyongyang 's frustration at its failure, however.

Even so, a failed launch may ultimately offer North Korea greater choices than other scenarios might have. Had Pyongyang succeeded, even Seoul might have thought twice about continued economic contacts with the North. And had the United States or Japan shot the missile down, Pyongyang would very quickly have been forced to decide whether to consider the move an act of war and launch a counterstrike, or just complain loudly and demonstrate its own impotence. A failed test, if a test was to be carried out, provides renewed avenues for negotiation.

China will be the first to offer its services in figuring out what next for North Korea . Pyongyang will be more beholden to Beijing following the test, as North Korea tries to gauge its options and how best to play down the failure. It has lost its missile leverage now, and will need its northern neighbor even more. For its part, China will take this added leverage with the North for its own negotiations with the United States .

The failed launch may bring Washington back into the six-party talks or to the informal six-party talks Beijing recently suggested as U.S. officials breathe a collective sigh of relief at not having been forced to decide whether to try to shoot down the North Korean missile. Thus, Washington can say it was ready for the launch without having had to prove its anti-missile system in a real-life situation. And the United States also enjoys the advantage of a North Korea weakened for now by the failed test.

The question now is what happens inside Pyongyang . A failure of a major economic, political and military expenditure could quickly lead to infighting as blame is assigned and passed and next steps are debated. While North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has shown himself quite adept at managing his place in power, the loss of a key political lever is sure to create at least a brief internal political crisis. While the North may have already thought through the implications of failure, thinking and facing reality are rather different. If Pyongyang makes quick, clear steps in the coming days, it will suggest it was either well-prepared for failure or aborted the launch itself. If not, expect to see the North close in on itself, and perhaps turn to neighbor China for advice and protection.

Either way, a major shift in North Korean behavior can be expected in the coming months.
 
Perhaps the tests were designed to fail, or espionage by Chinese agents to make sure they failed. Either way I think it forces them to the table. I was reading that satellite photos of North Korea at night show mostly total darkness. The people have no power and no food.

North Korea has a military that can fight one major battle, they don't have the resources for a sustained war, or healthy manpower for reserves. War or no war, they're screwed, they have to negotiate.
 
I have a sneaking suspicion that somewhere off the coast of North Korea there is a U.S. sub with a bunch of SEALs looking into a bag of missile parts and giggling
 
swatmedic said:
I recieved this email this morning. It has a few good points.
Geopolitical Diary: Pyongyang 's U.S. Independence Day Fireworks
July 05, 2006 04 30 GMT



North Korea launched several missiles into the East Sea , aka the Sea of Japan, early July 5 local time; the first launch apparently coincided with the July 4 local time U.S. launch of the space shuttle. The tests come amid increased diplomatic efforts to prevent a launch of the Taepodong-2.

Taepodong-2 is this pronounced (Type o' dong)?[laugh]
 
Has anyone on this thread actually READ any articles about the range of NK's missiles? At best, they can barely reach ALASKA. Kalifornia is safe from them. Hawaii, however, I suspect would be in the theoretical range... if, that is, NK can keep them from self-destructing in the first 35 seconds. [rolleyes]
 
Kim Jong mentally-Ill is really begging to be slapped.
I wouldn't wonder that, if he goes down in flames, he'll try
to take the South, Japan and possibly Taiwan with him.

If only the Chinese and Russkies wouldn't play their dirty
game of sitting back and vetoeing, loving everything what
creates an issue for the U.S. and the free world.[angry]
Similar scenario as it is with Iran, and IMHO all these
bastards do cooperate.
 
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