What Putin’s War in Ukraine Reveals About Russia—and the Likely Path Ahead

[40 Creedmoor fan]

Support for the "Special Operation" is mainly from older Russians who lived under the USSR and are nostalgic for the old days.
Younger Russians who have traveled to the West and are educated want NO part of the war of aggression and see their standard of living eroding.

How many "young Russians" can afford to travel to the west? How many "younger Russians" outside of Moscow earn enough to travel to the west? How many "younger Russians" came out in protest? These "younger Russians" are irrelevant!

Reminds me of Bridgitte Gabriel speech:

 

[SFC13557]

"How many "young Russians" can afford to travel to the west? How many "younger Russians" outside of Moscow earn enough to travel to the west? How many "younger Russians" came out in protest? These "younger Russians" are irrelevant!"

A lot of the educated upper middleclass Russians regularly travelled and vacationed in Europe before the "Special Military Operation".

Sammy, are you FSB?

 

[SFC13557]

From Russia With Intimidation​

My wife criticized Putin on Facebook. Her mother got a call from the FSB.​

From Today's WSJ.

By Paul Podolsky

"I’m American, and my wife is from Russia. We met when I was working as a reporter there in the early 1990s. My wife loathes Vladimir Putin and the security services he served. As a student in Moscow, she was expelled from university at the KGB’s behest for watching a film at the American Embassy. I’ve written on these pages before about my Moscow-based, Putin-supporting mother-in-law, Maria.

When the Ukraine war started, my wife took to rebutting the Facebook posts of Mr. Putin’s chief propagandist, Maria Zakharova. Facebook is banned in Russia, but Ms. Zakharova used it to make Moscow’s case to the world. My wife, from the safety of our Connecticut home, dared to note that Bucha and other possible war crimes did indeed occur. I too wrote articles that could be deemed critical of Mr. Putin’s invasion.

At the same time, we continued to talk to the other Maria, my wife’s mother, via Skype even though that too is banned. Maria has an eighth-grade education and is a former hospital janitor—hardly a target I thought the security services would monitor. My wife and I joked about the FSB listening in to our calls. We aren’t laughing anymore.

My wife recently underwent significant surgery. After the fact, she mentioned this with her mother on a Skype call. Shortly thereafter, Maria received a phone call on her Moscow landline from a man who didn’t identify himself.

“We know your daughter has a medical condition,” he said. “This is retribution for her traitorous behavior toward Russia.” Then he hung up.

I can’t say for sure, but who else beyond the FSB would conduct such an operation? Maria was too scared to call us. Instead she phoned an intermediary, who relayed the details and said Maria was putting a halt to our conversations and didn’t support traitors. She instinctively sided with the secret police against her daughter.

“I can’t understand her,” I said to a Russian friend.


“This is normal for Russians,” he replied.

On reflection, I realized he was right. It is like Pavlik Morozov, a touchstone of Soviet propaganda. In 1932, 13-year old Pavlik turned his black-marketing father in to the secret police. The father was promptly shot and Pavlik lauded as a hero. Relatives in turn killed Pavlik and were then also shot by the secret police.

A police state brings out the worst in people, and Maria has lived under that influence all her life. She grew up under Stalin. She has an instinctive fear of the state’s power. Certain thoughts aren’t to be thought.

What’s now the FSB has been, with some modifications, the KGB, NKVD, Cheka and Okhrana—a lineage that stretches back to czarist times. The FSB’s purpose today is the same as the KGB’s during the Soviet era, even if the tools—social media—have evolved. They want to silence debate, to get my wife and others to stop speaking out."

Mr. Podolsky is author of “Master, Minion.” He writes the Things I Didn’t Learn in School newsletter on Substack.com.

 

[SFC13557]

KHERSON, Ukraine—When teacher Halyna Shapiro returned to her school four days after Russian forces abandoned this city in southern Ukraine last month, she found textbooks on Russian history and literature, published in Moscow, lying on teachers’ desks.

The Russian alphabet was pinned to blackboards in classrooms where Russian wasn’t previously taught. Students’ notebooks were full of poems extolling Russia’s virtues.

Ms. Shapiro had been the school’s deputy director for 20 years, but refused to work under a Russian-installed administration. After she returned following a monthslong absence, she found her school transformed.
“They removed all of our books, and tried to rewire children’s brains,” she said as she surveyed hundreds of Ukrainian titles stacked in a room where dance classes used to be held. “They clearly planned to destroy these books. But they ran out of time.”

 

[APFSDS]

KHERSON, Ukraine—When teacher Halyna Shapiro returned to her school four days after Russian forces abandoned this city in southern Ukraine last month, she found textbooks on Russian history and literature, published in Moscow, lying on teachers’ desks.

The Russian alphabet was pinned to blackboards in classrooms where Russian wasn’t previously taught. Students’ notebooks were full of poems extolling Russia’s virtues.

Ms. Shapiro had been the school’s deputy director for 20 years, but refused to work under a Russian-installed administration. After she returned following a monthslong absence, she found her school transformed.
“They removed all of our books, and tried to rewire children’s brains,” she said as she surveyed hundreds of Ukrainian titles stacked in a room where dance classes used to be held. “They clearly planned to destroy these books. But they ran out of time.”

The soviet union tried to "russifiy" all the republics they had control over (source: a 1980s textbook on the soviet union I have since thrown away, but I have seen it elsewhere) so this isn't surprising.

I think you can't look at anything any country does as 100% good or 100% bad, i.e. using black and white thinking. We did horrible things, many as bad as what russia is doing, in our wars.

• murder civilians in the mai lai massacre and others I'm sure
• bomb civilian infrastruture in Iraq leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of iraqi children
• routinely used and continue to use chemical weapons, i.e. agent orange and white phosphorous, plus I guess you can count contamination from depleted uranium
• support horrible scumbags like the saudi royal family, chiang kaishek, pinochet, saddam hussein, the iranian shah etc.
• overthrow democratically elected governments (holy crap, too many to list, google that)

BUT we also fought and won (at least for now) against the most evil people ever on a massive scale for a century, and kept most of the world from erupting into WWIII (somewhat inadvertently or by accident, but we did it). We use that fight as justification for going to war, which is partially true, but a lot of our impetus for going to war is really so that the military industrial complex can make billions, no, TRILLIONS of dollars. I think our current ruling class is so corrupt and sociopathic we are leaning more and more toward profit as the motive vs. actually helping people and keeping the peace. That has become a secondary consideration instead of the other way around.

 

[paul73]

BUT we also

do not even begin comparing the worst USA did to what USSR and NKVD did to humanity - within and outside its own borders.
every government is the enemy of its own people, it is a given. but the magnitude of crimes committed by the NKVD/KGB and what happens there now, it is not comparable with the worst USA did so far.

that does not render USA as a saint - but it has to be fairly assessed, for simplicity, in dozens of millions of lives taken. total count for russia now, starting from 1917 will probably go above 100 million, if taken all together - all who were killed, tortured or elsewhere unlawfully sent to their death. but, who can count it.

of anything - it needs to serve as a lesson and a precaution of where all the best intentions implemented by people with no moral restrictions can take you and the society as a whole.

 

[garandman]

The MAJORITY of Russians support the war. This is based on multiple surveys, including independent ones.

Citation needed.

Not sure there is such a think as “independent surveys” about Ukraine in a country that has harshly criminalized any speech against the war or military.

i24NEWS

www.i24news.tv

This shows people with VPN access have much lower levels of support.

Many Russians Support Ukraine Peace Talks but Not Letting Territory Go

A slim majority think Moscow should open up negotiations, but it is unclear what they might be willing to concede.

globalaffairs.org

 

[paul73]

Not sure there is such a think as “independent surveys” about Ukraine

wife`s friend visited moscow in summer - at that time they all there were for the war and against ukrainian 'nazis'.
i bet since then, as they started draft and more zink coffins will be coming, if coming at all with bodies of their husbands and sons - the public opinion will change, eventually.

if they indeed plan a new 200k troops assault upon kiev - it will be a lot more dead bodies. all such things have a certain point of saturation, when propaganda fog gets gradually pushed out by an objective reality.

 

[APFSDS]

do not even begin comparing the worst USA did to what USSR and NKVD did to humanity - within and outside its own borders.
every government is the enemy of its own people, it is a given. but the magnitude of crimes committed by the NKVD/KGB and what happens there now, it is not comparable with the worst USA did so far.

that does not render USA as a saint - but it has to be fairly assessed, for simplicity, in dozens of millions of lives taken. total count for russia now, starting from 1917 will probably go above 100 million, if taken all together - all who were killed, tortured or elsewhere unlawfully sent to their death. but, who can count it.

of anything - it needs to serve as a lesson and a precaution of where all the best intentions implemented by people with no moral restrictions can take you and the society as a whole.

I was not trying to at all, sorry if it came across that way. I was trying to say we did what we did because we were trying to stop the most evil people ever (authoritarians like the nazis and commies, who IMHO are super similar), but we are not as pure as the driven snow like some people are suggesting. We stopped all the worst of the scumbags in the 20th century, but our leadership is increasingly concerned with profit for themselves and keeping the existing dollar/US hegemony going.

 

[SFC13557]

If someone has a better plan for inventing, designing and producing weapons systems please let us know.
The War in the Ukraine has shown the superiority of our Weapons systems vs. the Russians, Chinese weapons are still untested as well as their Military.
If Putin isn't horrified by his Armies poor performance and the superiority of the West's weapons than he is truly out of touch and insane.
The Ukrainian War has been a goldmine for Western Military Intel and assessment of Russian weapons systems and it ain't good for Putin's ambitions.

 

[garandman]

wife`s friend visited moscow in summer - at that time they all there were for the war and against ukrainian 'nazis'.
i bet since then, as they started draft and more zink coffins will be coming, if coming at all with bodies of their husbands and sons - the public opinion will change, eventually.

if they indeed plan a new 200k troops assault upon kiev - it will be a lot more dead bodies. all such things have a certain point of saturation, when propaganda fog gets gradually pushed out by an objective reality.

According to ISW and others, Russia is operating a “stealth mobilization” and is still drafting people. From ISW:

“The document indicates that despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on Oct. 31, Putin’s initial mobilization decree continues to be in force and that “there are no legal grounds for dismissal from military service upon the expiration of service contract.”

 

[paul73]

According to ISW and others, Russia is operating a “stealth mobilization” and is still drafting people. From ISW:

“The document indicates that despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on Oct. 31, Putin’s initial mobilization decree continues to be in force and that “there are no legal grounds for dismissal from military service upon the expiration of service contract.”

all they can do and know how to do is to pile up bodies against the superior tech. like in a WW2 style - a bayonet attack with no ammo against advancing tanks.
been there, done that, rinse and repeat.

 

[40 Creedmoor fan]

Citation needed.

Not sure there is such a think as “independent surveys” about Ukraine in a country that has harshly criminalized any speech against the war or military.

i24NEWS

www.i24news.tv

This shows people with VPN access have much lower levels of support.

Many Russians Support Ukraine Peace Talks but Not Letting Territory Go

A slim majority think Moscow should open up negotiations, but it is unclear what they might be willing to concede.

globalaffairs.org

Get a browser, like chrome, that can do auto-translate and point to Большинство россиян поддерживают спецоперацию на Украине, показал опрос

Yep, state media but yours is also suspect. survey you showed were super suspect too.

Here's another one: go to Яндекс and autotranslate it. Read some comments there.

 

[40 Creedmoor fan]

but we are not as pure as the driven snow like some people are suggesting

If you mean me, you are wrong. I understand that our past has problems, and we as a nation HAVE understood what we did and changed. Today, many folks like to say that what we did in the past does not make us better than Russia, for example. The past does not BUT the fact that we struggled, accepted, and change does. We went to WAR against our own because we thought slavery was wrong!
People of the United States have sent their own money, not the government, to help people all over the globe! We even helped Russia on more than one occasion. Here's one you're probably not familiar with: Russian famine of 1921–1922 - Wikipedia

Today, we send BILLIONS of free aid around the globe as NGOs, in addition to more BILLIONS sent by our government. Russia has NEVER done anything remotely like this! To place US and Russia on the same moral plane is insane!

 

[SFC13557]

According to ISW and others, Russia is operating a “stealth mobilization” and is still drafting people. From ISW:

“The document indicates that despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on Oct. 31, Putin’s initial mobilization decree continues to be in force and that “there are no legal grounds for dismissal from military service upon the expiration of service contract.”

And the callups/conscriptions have sent poorly armed and equipped Troops to the front to be nothing more than cannon fodder and they know it.
One report stated the troops were issued AK-47's from a warehouse that were rusty and poorly maintained. The Russian Soldiers have been issued AK-74's for over 20yrs and as we know they take different ammo. Another huge logistics problem from the incompetent Putin regime.

When this War ends, and the surviving Russian Soldiers return to Mother Russia, Putin will have a huge problem keeping his propaganda machine going. Not only has he destroyed the Russian economy and made Russia a pariah in the free world but the Russian people will know that their Army is weak and ineffective against the hated West and NATO.

 

[garandman]

Just learned something wasn’t aware of previously.

China has purchased farmland in many countries. They own something like ~5% of the wheat fields in Ukraine. This probably makes for some very interesting conversations between Xi and Putin.

 

[SFC13557]

Just learned something wasn’t aware of previously.

China has purchased farmland in many countries. They own something like ~5% of the wheat fields in Ukraine. This probably makes for some very interesting conversations between Xi and Putin.

And in America, they have a plan.
The Ukraine is known as the bread basket of Europe, Stalin starved, killed over 3 Million Ukrainians in the 30's over his collectivization program.

"A Chinese company’s purchase of farmland in North Dakota just down the road from a US Air Force base that houses sensitive drone technology has lawmakers on Capitol Hill worried about potential espionage by Beijing, according to a report.

Fufeng Group, a Shandong, China-based company that specializes in flavor enhancers and sugar substitutes, recently purchased 300 acres of farmland near Grand Forks, North Dakota, a rural area that lies about a 90-minute drive from the Canadian border.

Grand Forks is also 40 miles away from Grafton, North Dakota, where a limited liability company believed to be controlled by billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates recently paid $13 million for thousands of acres of potato farmland, causing a stir among locals.

Three North Dakotans sold the land to Fufeng Group for $2.6 million, according to CNBC."

Chinese firm bought North Dakota farm near US Air Force drone base: report

Shandong, China-based Fufeng Group’s purchase of farmland in North Dakota just down the road from a US air force base has lawmakers on Capitol Hill worried.

nypost.com

 

[APFSDS]

If you mean me, you are wrong. I understand that our past has problems, and we as a nation HAVE understood what we did and changed. Today, many folks like to say that what we did in the past does not make us better than Russia, for example. The past does not BUT the fact that we struggled, accepted, and change does. We went to WAR against our own because we thought slavery was wrong!
People of the United States have sent their own money, not the government, to help people all over the globe! We even helped Russia on more than one occasion. Here's one you're probably not familiar with: Russian famine of 1921–1922 - Wikipedia

Today, we send BILLIONS of free aid around the globe as NGOs, in addition to more BILLIONS sent by our government. Russia has NEVER done anything remotely like this! To place US and Russia on the same moral plane is insane!

Once again, I'm not saying we are on the same level. We didn't starve millions of our own population to death and we sure as hell didn't side with the NAZIs. We don't operate vast slave labor prison camps. We don't enslave vast numbers of people. All of that stuff the soviets/russians did in the last 100 years. BUT, our motives are not always 100% pure, and we don't always support the most savory of characters. We do A LOT of good in the world, but we also support murderous scumbags like the saudis (see the war in yemen, their human rights record etc.), various militant groups, etc, and overthrow various governments till this very day. We destroy civilian infrastructure (iraqi water treatment system, the sudanese medicine factory etc.). We do a lot of this for the fun and profit of the military industrial complex, and they influence domestic policy to further this fun and profit. I'm just saying, the world is not black and white. We (the United States in general, not a specific person, although I guess you can argue unless you don't pay taxes you tacitly support the status quo) ARE a force for good and prosperity, but we are not perfect. We need to be wary of people rushing to go to war or support a cause, as they may have ulterior motives.

 

[SFC13557]

From the WSJ.
The Leftists play right into our enemies' hands, our greatest threat is our next-door neighbors.

"Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer popularly known as “the merchant of death,” warned about the mortal peril facing humanity in his first TV appearance after returning home from an American prison.

“What is happening in the West is a suicide of civilization,” said Mr. Bout, who was traded this month for detained American basketball star Brittney Griner. “Can you imagine, in American schools they teach first-graders that there are 72 genders! Not just gays and normal people, but 72!”

The message coming from Mr. Bout, who is now a hero in Moscow, and from the Kremlin itself is that only Russia can rescue the world from moral degeneration and decay. That idea, long a key element of the Kremlin’s propaganda, has now been legislated as the Russian state’s official ideology, with the targeting of gay people as one of its most sharply defined features."

 

[vcman]

I read because of the sanctions and lack of chips Russian auto factories had to re-engineer their cars and produce them without electronics' like fuel injection, anti-lock brakes, traction control, automatic tranny's, power windows, etc.
Who says the sanctions aren't working and the Russian people aren't suffering?

nice, a car like that very easy to fix, i want one. well maybe ill keep the fuel injection system and ignition coil over spark plugs system ,but f...k everythings else.