US virus deaths may top 80,000 despite confinement: study

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Seriously, only 80k? We trashed the economy for this? Or are we to believe that the US is a bunch of social distancing all stars?
No, the point, whether one chooses to believe it or not, it that only 80k will die _because_ we trashed the economy. The rationale is that covid-19 is so bad that without extreme action the death toll would be catastrophic.
 

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No, the point, whether one chooses to believe it or not, it that only 80k will die _because_ we trashed the economy. The rationale is that covid-19 is so bad that without extreme action the death toll would be catastrophic.
Good point.

We have a huge population full of pre-existing conditions (obesity, high BP and type 2 diabetes), with cities like New Orleans run by morons that thought going on with Mardi Gras was a good idea.

We're gonna be the poster child for lockdowns.
 

jpk

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Good point.

We have a huge population full of pre-existing conditions (obesity, high BP and type 2 diabetes), with cities like New Orleans run by morons that thought going on with Mardi Gras was a good idea.

We're gonna be the poster child for lockdowns.
Going ahead with MG was no dumber than the retard educators that chose to go ahead with school trips to Italy and other places in midst of outbreak in mid/end of feb

All of the above need to be held accountable for their decisions
 

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100 people have died in just NY City in just one day... You got some catching up to do.. The UsofA is now #1 in the world for confirmed cases... Even ahead of China. We also have had 1209 deaths to date.
Some reporters are running with that , but as Trump pointed out , you believing the number that China is putting out ?
Even the woman doctor who speaks at the daily Trump presser is starting to back it down on the predictions.
It's not going to be a cakewalk but I don't believe we will get even close to what some were calling.
 

Varmint

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Going ahead with MG was no dumber than the retard educators that chose to go ahead with school trips to Italy and other places in midst of outbreak in mid/end of feb

All of the above need to be held accountable for their decisions
Yeah that amazed me. Well at least Mardi Gras was a good science experiment, we may learn something about transmission.
 

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Some reporters are running with that , but as Trump pointed out , you believing the number that China is putting out ?
Even the woman doctor who speaks at the daily Trump presser is starting to back it down on the predictions.
It's not going to be a cakewalk but I don't believe we will get even close to what some were calling.
China today asked local governments not to conceal positive tests. Guess the Chinese government doesn't believe the numbers either. [laugh]
 

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Seriously, only 80k? We trashed the economy for this? Or are we to believe that the US is a bunch of social distancing all stars?
EXACTLY. A "bad" year for flu and we lose 80k in the USA. A really good year is only low 30k to flu. So 80k would just be a bad flu year.
 

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This for sure. I honestly think my family already had it in January. We all had a horrific viral upper respiratory infection with some level of viral pneumonia or bronchitis with high fever that dragged on for about two weeks and the one person in the family with asthma ended up with pretty bad pneumonia from it.
Yup! I got it over February school vacation. Felt like there was a Volkswagen sitting on my chest! I get bronchitis almost every winter, so I know what that feels like. I almost called my doctor but I know he would say ride it out if I didn’t have a fever. I only had a mild fever for half a day, Tylenol knocked it right out. This thing is coming back next year, are we suppose to just shut it down again??
 

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Yup! I got it over February school vacation. Felt like there was a Volkswagen sitting on my chest! I get bronchitis almost every winter, so I know what that feels like. I almost called my doctor but I know he would say ride it out if I didn’t have a fever. I only had a mild fever for half a day, Tylenol knocked it right out. This thing is coming back next year, are we suppose to just shut it down again??
I wonder myself. My company has visitors from all around the world. December 2019 we had 2 guests from China, 2 from Taiwan and several from India. Also many employees from DR, PR and South America. Between Christmas lasting until about the second week of January half the company came down with slight fever, some eye issues and respiratory issues and a dry hacking cough that wouldn't stop. Production was affected because so many were out.

We all wrote it off as the flu and that was it. The other day we were wondering what if??
 

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Yup! I got it over February school vacation. Felt like there was a Volkswagen sitting on my chest! I get bronchitis almost every winter, so I know what that feels like. I almost called my doctor but I know he would say ride it out if I didn’t have a fever. I only had a mild fever for half a day, Tylenol knocked it right out. This thing is coming back next year, are we suppose to just shut it down again??
Same here. Three days hacking, one fever then woke up in a bucket of sweat and felt fine. Least I hope it was sweat?
 

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100 people have died in just NY City in just one day... You got some catching up to do.. The UsofA is now #1 in the world for confirmed cases... Even ahead of China. We also have had 1209 deaths to date.
Then we have 15000 to go before it's a real flu. We have more cases because we have more testing.
 

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It seems the CDC numbers are namely estimates. They extrapolate the number of infections and deaths based on the reported numbers from healthcare. Those reported numbers are something lower.

In this situation, we are focused on the actual case numbers being seen today in more or less real time. The researchers need to extrapolate those numbers out in a similar manner. Since we don't have a full years worth of data, the experts have to guesstimate the CFR and R0 to first extrapolate the effect on the populations. The models they use are entirely dependent on accurate and consistent data. Unfortunately (and fortunately) things aren't consistent. The data will change as the social restrictions change, etc. Since much of what we see from them are based on guesses about what will occur in the future, they have wild variations between the different values produced from the models.

Also, it seems the media likes to publish only the worst case numbers while ignoring the lower bound estimates. They also don't describe the model assumptions in many cases.
 
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EXACTLY. A "bad" year for flu and we lose 80k in the USA. A really good year is only low 30k to flu. So 80k would just be a bad flu year.
There is so much wrong with this train of logic. You think it's no big deal if 80k die of COVID-19 because a similar amount of people die of flu. You are forgetting that this is 80k ON TOP of normal annual flu deaths, so really an extra 80k people dying would be a catastrophe.

The second thing you are forgetting about is the hundreds of thousands of potential COVID-19 patients requiring ICU level care. Think about the downstream effects. In any given year, the US hospital system is running at 80+% capacity just treating normal shit. People suffering serious injuries, heart attacks, strokes, etc. will not get ICU care due to the excess of COVID-19 patients.

Look at what is happening in NYC and you will see what will be happening in other cities like CHicago, Detroit, and New Orleans, in the near future.
 

Paul455

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Darwin's model still works: Only the strong will Survive.

That is how nature works, and always will.

Illnesses and diseases will take their toll, as will poor lifestyle habits.

Can't fix it.
 
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