Well if you buck the system, there ARE consequences. I mean, if I am in a room with every press agent in DC and Biden and I tear him a new one for 20 min, I'm pretty sure I'm not getting an invite to his house for dinner that night.
As far as sleeper races, CT is not one. Bluumy is up over 10% in a Quinny poll last week. WA isn't far behind in the trouncing. CO is closer, but still ugly. Expect all 3 to go D.
We need 3+ of
PA
GA
NH
AZ
NV
WI
NC looks like it's gonna drop R, so that's a plus. 3 out of 6 and we get majority. I'd like to see 5 out of 6. Just make it more of a big deal. Again, the House is going to be deep red so any sort of legislative traction is moot anyhow.
I think the GOP takes at least 5/6, NH the longer odds one. The GOP may win house seats in CT (2), one in RI, pick up 4 in NY, etc. the NY governor race is close and zeldin is surging. If NY governor is a few point race, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a CT, WA, CO seat flip. Dems are pouring money into districts biden won by double digits, those should be very safe seats.
Remember that POS governor in NJ won in 2017 by 14%. Last year he won re-election by 3% with an opponent who had no money at all. VA is a state trump lost by 10, Youngkin won by 3%.
NM governor is a close race, GOP favored in Oregon a state who hasn’t had a GOP governor since 1983.
It’s going to be a good night