The greatest spectacle in racing has been postponed

SpaceCritter

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SpaceCritter

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@SpaceCritter Do you think there will not be an increase in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths with the "opening" of the country? Just wondering what your thoughts are, it sounds like you are saying it will go away.
Not significantly, and not likely that wouldn't have occurred anyway. Other states are more or less "open" now. And (I keep saying it) the sun's up.

The real point is that this "lockdown" bullshit is absolutely ass-backwards. The usual and customary response to an infectious disease: quarantine the sick, protect the vulnerable (the elderly and infirm in this case), and encourage all who can to get out in the fresh air and sunshine. Here it was: quarantine everyone, close for months an arbitrary and capricious selection of businesses (Walmart? GTG. Mom&pop shop? CLOSED), and ship virus patients into nursing homes.

You'd think we'd know better, as this isn't our first rodeo: 1968 Hong Kong Flu, 100000 dead in the US, no major closures. 1957 Asian Flu, 116000, no closures. Today they're forgotten.

But it's been a clownshow from the beginning, starting with the WHO's denial anything's amiss in China, and that the President's suggestion we restrict inbound flights from China is unnecessary and racist. Then the masks hokey-pokey. The vents nonsense. And on and on and on. And they're still talking about contact tracing! That might have done something... in February. Horse is not only out of the barn but has f***ed all the neighbor's mares.

Back in early March when everyone was seeing what was happening in Italy and - not knowing what this was - wanted to be cautious, well I can forgive it. That was back when the verbiage was "flatten the curve" - the potential that the hospitals could become swamped. (Remember the hospital ship in New York?) But as of about mid-April, it was clear that wouldn't happen. The verbiage suddenly became "Stop the Spread!" as if that was at all possible by then. By the first of May it should have been obvious to everyone that the "lockdown" bullshit was counter-productive, not only in NOT reducing cases and deaths (again, mainly old and infirm, and in nursing homes), but in creating massive collateral damage of their own. And several months' worth of international data should have made it obvious to all but the most obtuse that vitamin D deficiency plays a major role in adverse outcomes (as is typically the case).
 

Woodsloafer

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Not significantly, and not likely that wouldn't have occurred anyway. Other states are more or less "open" now. And (I keep saying it) the sun's up.

The real point is that this "lockdown" bullshit is absolutely ass-backwards. The usual and customary response to an infectious disease: quarantine the sick, protect the vulnerable (the elderly and infirm in this case), and encourage all who can to get out in the fresh air and sunshine. Here it was: quarantine everyone, close for months an arbitrary and capricious selection of businesses (Walmart? GTG. Mom&pop shop? CLOSED), and ship virus patients into nursing homes.

You'd think we'd know better, as this isn't our first rodeo: 1968 Hong Kong Flu, 100000 dead in the US, no major closures. 1957 Asian Flu, 116000, no closures. Today they're forgotten.

But it's been a clownshow from the beginning, starting with the WHO's denial anything's amiss in China, and that the President's suggestion we restrict inbound flights from China is unnecessary and racist. Then the masks hokey-pokey. The vents nonsense. And on and on and on. And they're still talking about contact tracing! That might have done something... in February. Horse is not only out of the barn but has f***ed all the neighbor's mares.

Back in early March when everyone was seeing what was happening in Italy and - not knowing what this was - wanted to be cautious, well I can forgive it. That was back when the verbiage was "flatten the curve" - the potential that the hospitals could become swamped. (Remember the hospital ship in New York?) But as of about mid-April, it was clear that wouldn't happen. The verbiage suddenly became "Stop the Spread!" as if that was at all possible by then. By the first of May it should have been obvious to everyone that the "lockdown" bullshit was counter-productive, not only in NOT reducing cases and deaths (again, mainly old and infirm, and in nursing homes), but in creating massive collateral damage of their own. And several months' worth of international data should have made it obvious to all but the most obtuse that vitamin D deficiency plays a major role in adverse outcomes (as is typically the case).
Italy (and then Spain) was one of the things I was looking at and then how it ramped up in NYC made me think that shut downs were warranted, although I agree that they were overdone and we need to get back to work (I have worked throughout this as I am in an essential job). Now with what is happening in Brazil, where no precautions were instituted and now it is reported that hospitals are full and overwhelmed, I am still not convinced that people staying home in the United States did not help to alleviate the spread. I work in Fitchburg and the cases have doubled in the last two weeks, not sure if that is due to more testing or spread, only time will tell; however, there is definitely more people out in the last couple weeks.

Things that are different now from 1957 and 1968 is the internet/social media and lawyers/liability. With people being more "informed" and constantly barraged about what is going on around the world versus just getting a daily newspaper and the evening news, they expect action and that the government is going to protect them. When they see that another country went into "lock down", it is expected that we will do the same when cases are rising.

Liability and lawyers are one thing that really impacts things nowadays. I know several business owners who are very concerned about their liability in terms of both customers and employees when/if they reopen. There have been several news stories of businesses in central MA that will not be reopening because the owners simply do not want the liability/lawsuits if a customer(s) gets it from an employee or vice versa. I think this is going to greatly impact small businesses across the country and I wish that the government had limited liability for this type of thing, not for the big companies but for small businesses like diners/restaurants, hair salons, etc. that are not part of large chains.
 

SpaceCritter

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Italy (and then Spain) was one of the things I was looking at and then how it ramped up in NYC made me think that shut downs were warranted, although I agree that they were overdone and we need to get back to work (I have worked throughout this as I am in an essential job). Now with what is happening in Brazil, where no precautions were instituted and now it is reported that hospitals are full and overwhelmed, I am still not convinced that people staying home in the United States did not help to alleviate the spread. I work in Fitchburg and the cases have doubled in the last two weeks, not sure if that is due to more testing or spread, only time will tell; however, there is definitely more people out in the last couple weeks.
MONTHS ago I said Brazil was going to get hit hard once their in their late fall/winter season. Different culture, favelas, ... And highly doubtful supplementing vitamin D is even thought about.

Things that are different now from 1957 and 1968 is the internet/social media and lawyers/liability. With people being more "informed" and constantly barraged about what is going on around the world versus just getting a daily newspaper and the evening news, they expect action and that the government is going to protect them. When they see that another country went into "lock down", it is expected that we will do the same when cases are rising.

Liability and lawyers are one thing that really impacts things nowadays. I know several business owners who are very concerned about their liability in terms of both customers and employees when/if they reopen. There have been several news stories of businesses in central MA that will not be reopening because the owners simply do not want the liability/lawsuits if a customer(s) gets it from an employee or vice versa. I think this is going to greatly impact small businesses across the country and I wish that the government had limited liability for this type of thing, not for the big companies but for small businesses like diners/restaurants, hair salons, etc. that are not part of large chains.
That is why there are a few customers of mine that are remote-only for the duration. I asked my insurance guy and he said flat-out, nope, not covered. One of my customers sells a human-consumable product, and NOBODY is allowed in the shop except a handful of employees, and only one guy is allowed in the warehouse.
 

Woodsloafer

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MONTHS ago I said Brazil was going to get hit hard once their in their late fall/winter season. Different culture, favelas, ... And highly doubtful supplementing vitamin D is even thought about.


That is why there are a few customers of mine that are remote-only for the duration. I asked my insurance guy and he said flat-out, nope, not covered. One of my customers sells a human-consumable product, and NOBODY is allowed in the shop except a handful of employees, and only one guy is allowed in the warehouse.
I know that you predicted that about Brazil but their fall/winter season is still nothing like ours, with people still likely spending considerable time outdoors during those seasons and not wearing heavy clothing (their "coldest" month is June and I think it still averages around 66 degrees, so it is pretty warm during the sunlight hours). I am not dismissing the vitamin D connection (I am taking it daily) but I am still not sold on it being the end all. Indigenous people in Brazil have a death rate twice that of other in the country and I would have to believe they spend more time out in the sun than any of us. Also, the sun is "stronger" in Brazil than in the upper half of the United States basically throughout the year.


Regardless of the the government has/will done, small businesses will be hammered by this virus due to liability and insurance companies not covering it. It is already happening where I work with people threatening lawsuits if they do not have enough PPE, they have to work too close to other employees, etc. - it may only be bullshit talk but it is definitely impacting the way business is done, reducing productivity and increasing costs.
 

Woodsloafer

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As I am sure you are aware, it doesn't take much sun exposure to maintain vitamin D levels:

"For example, in the UK, 13 minutes of midday sunlight exposure during summer three times per week is enough to maintain healthy levels among Caucasian adults (5Trusted Source).

Another study found that 30 minutes of midday summer sun exposure in Oslo, Norway was equivalent to consuming 10,000–20,000 IU of vitamin D (8Trusted Source)."



I would think people in Brazil would be getting more sun on average than, say, people in NYC all year round.
 

Woodsloafer

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Vitamin D deficiency is much lower in the population in Brazil (28% in one study) versus up to 75% in the United States so I would think, it in terms of Vitamin D, they would be in a much better position than the US. And I would think that indigenous tribes in Brazil have almost non-existent vitamin D deficiency but they apparently have twice the mortality rate than that of other Brazilians.


 

SpaceCritter

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I know that you predicted that about Brazil but their fall/winter season is still nothing like ours, with people still likely spending considerable time outdoors during those seasons and not wearing heavy clothing (their "coldest" month is June and I think it still averages around 66 degrees, so it is pretty warm during the sunlight hours). I am not dismissing the vitamin D connection (I am taking it daily) but I am still not sold on it being the end all. Indigenous people in Brazil have a death rate twice that of other in the country and I would have to believe they spend more time out in the sun than any of us. Also, the sun is "stronger" in Brazil than in the upper half of the United States basically throughout the year.


Regardless of the the government has/will done, small businesses will be hammered by this virus due to liability and insurance companies not covering it. It is already happening where I work with people threatening lawsuits if they do not have enough PPE, they have to work too close to other employees, etc. - it may only be bullshit talk but it is definitely impacting the way business is done, reducing productivity and increasing costs.
True enough, but IIRC there are certain South American countries that trade heavily with Asia, and were I to hazard a guess the coming winter season essentially "kindled" the virus there, and it took off through the rest, even places (e.g. Brazil and Ecuador) getting plenty of light (the latter via public transit maybe, a la New York).

As for the liability thing, at some point we're going to need to address that as a society. There will always be another virus.
 

pastera

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@SpaceCritter Do you think there will not be an increase in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths with the "opening" of the country? Just wondering what your thoughts are, it sounds like you are saying it will go away.
Do you think that there will be an increase in deaths from suicide, addiction, and untreated health conditions?
We don't have a vaccine now or for the foreseeable future, that means that this virus will spread. The only reason for the lock down was to manage the speed of the spread and we've done that.
 

Woodsloafer

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True enough, but IIRC there are certain South American countries that trade heavily with Asia, and were I to hazard a guess the coming winter season essentially "kindled" the virus there, and it took off through the rest, even places (e.g. Brazil and Ecuador) getting plenty of light (the latter via public transit maybe, a la New York).

As for the liability thing, at some point we're going to need to address that as a society. There will always be another virus.
I believe that transit systems are one of the big "spreaders" along with larger gatherings in enclosed buildings (e.g., Biogen conference) and that this created the mass spread in a short time in certain areas/regions.

I don't think the liability thing will ever be addressed and, this time around, it will be the death knell for many small businesses that will have a great impact on our local economies and lives in the coming years.
 

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Do you think that there will be an increase in deaths from suicide, addiction, and untreated health conditions?
We don't have a vaccine now or for the foreseeable future, that means that this virus will spread. The only reason for the lock down was to manage the speed of the spread and we've done that.
Absolutely, I am not disagreeing with the other impacts of the lock downs, I just believe that that they were warranted in certain areas (NYC, Boston) to get things under control before they seeded adjacent populations too quickly so that hospitals got overwhelmed, etc. There should have been a better approach but unfortunately we have 50 different governors with their own ideas - none had any type of plan for this crisis. It seems that some people are dismissing them as completely unnecessary whereas as others say we should be locked down forever (until there is a vaccine), there does not seem to be much in between.
 

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Agreed - the response has been a moronic exercise in risk aversion. I believe the political class saw this as a personal threat given the average age of Congress. Shutting everything down was very little financial risk for a large gain in infection risk reduction.

Liability? It's a cold. Why should any level of liability exist over nominal levels assigned to the transmission of other communicable diseases.
 

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Yo NASCAR, I'm really happy for you, and Imma let you finish but ISLE OF MANN has one of the best races of all time…one of the best races of all time!
I'll sit down and redneck it for a few hours today while I get other things accomplished. At least it's something. Lack of fans hasn't made it any worse then what it already was.


MotoGP needs to start racing.

It's the only sport I watch and I watch every single race.
Yep. Hopefully not all the races take place in Spain this year. The Moto3 racing always delivers.

hmmm...i thought the greatest spectacle in racing was the tour de france.
It is when they all pile into each other. I watch because I like racing in most forms. What those guys can do in a few weeks time I find amazing. Especially after they crash and try to keep going. It would probably take me most of the tour to complete one stage.
 
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