The Economy going Forward

Paul455

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I try to think of myself as an optimist, but things are not looking good going forward for the economy.

All of the closures will have a dramatic impact on big companies (Revenue/Profits/Hiring) being depressed for months if not years.

Many small businesses will never reopen, as they are sunk by a lack of sales.

Maybe I am wrong, but this feels like 1974 or 1982 all over again. It will be a long and painful slog to get back to prosperity.

The government is not moving fast enough to stop the damage.

Am I wrong? What is your opinion?
 

FPrice

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My opinion is that people/families/businesses should be developing plans now to come out of this situation. Think about how you would resume normalcy and at what speed.

I've been mulling this over in my head for a day or two now. Many people don't plan for an emergency. And a great many more don't plan on how to recover.

Not saying it will be easy. But it might be much easier if you think about it.
 

igrace7092

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I think big businesses will make out like bandits and CEO's will be fatter than ever! Reduced payroll, payroll hours, no need for physical locations, more employees working from home so less overhead. I imagine many small companies will go out of business so less competition. I don't see how this isn't a win for the companies that have capital to stick it out. Of course this just accelerates the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer I fear.
 

daekken

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I would be surprised if this doesn't accelerate the calls for Medicare For All.
3.3 million new unemployment claims--the unemployment number is higher since not all are eligible. A great majority of people get their healthcare from their employer.

With so many unemployed, many will go uninsured, so I would expect millions more to advocate to separate health insurance from their job, thus proposing Medicare For All.
 

Beretta92FS

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if these shutdowns continue for another month or two, check back in 10-20 years for a possible return to normal. Whats going on now will have immense ripple effects of the economy for the average person. As usual the very rich will of course benefit.
 

daekken

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The closest thing we have for comparison is the GFC of the 2000s. It didn't take decades to recover, but it did take years.
And about two weeks in, we have absolutely crushed the record of unemployment claims by about four times the old record during the 2000s situation.

Getting more pessimistic everyday.
 

Brook Trout

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Trumps approval ratings are up. Trump will be re-elected. Can anyone but hardcore Dems vote for senile Joe? What would Biden be like during this crisis? Americans will see that reality. Economy will recover, but not as strong as 2 months ago.
After Trump, in 4-1/2 years we have real problems coming. Get your preps ready for that.
The next 20 years, will not be like the last 20.
 

daekken

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Trumps approval ratings are up.
For now, they are. I think if he doesn't go free sh*t army after a few weeks, that support is going to crater.
He looked good in comparison coming out early about stimulus talk, and got a gift in the form of Pelosi initially wanting to add means testing and delaying the checks.

But one $1,200 check isn't going to cover a family for long and looks laughable in comparison when Canada's offering to cover 80% of your income, the UK was doing 70% or similar, and other countries are taking more proactive steps.

I'm no communist, but you still have to throw the proles a bone or two from time to time to keep them compliant.
 

Mattyweb

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Time in front of my computer and in my garage has me buying car parts like a drunken sailor. (these are restoration parts from small American companies).

I was talking with a guy in AZ yesterday that has a small shop making repro dashes. They are shut down for now but lining all the work up.

I think (hope) things will bounce back pretty quickly, as long as the gov stops lighting money on fire. That to me is the biggest worry and in my opinion would be 10x worse with the D's at the reigns.
 

daekken

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I do like that they included a provision in the stimulus bill to limit the potential for Trump and his relatives to profit off of the stimulus, that was a smart move.
 

blindfire

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I think big businesses will make out like bandits and CEO's will be fatter than ever! Reduced payroll, payroll hours, no need for physical locations, more employees working from home so less overhead. I imagine many small companies will go out of business so less competition. I don't see how this isn't a win for the companies that have capital to stick it out. Of course this just accelerates the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer I fear.
Agree. Not sure why the Rs were fighting the Ds on transparency how how the bail out money was going to be spent? I mean...didn't anyone learn ANYTHING from 2008? Effing AIG gives huge bonuses to their execs and Congress doesn't do shit about it. Airlines were bailed out in 2002 and none paid it back. In fact, they used the money to eventually do stock buy backs eliminating cash on hand. Now they come to the .gov again complaining that they are cash strapped. Bail out the cruse industry???? F*CK THAT! That industry is not even critical to ANYTHING.

Meanwhile, the pleabs making $75K or less will get $1200 / adult and $500 / kid on a one time deal.

I work in the IT field. My company is making out like bandits because we are one of the larger VPN providers. People are beating down our doors to buy our gear so their users can work from home. Our support call volume has literally doubled in March. We took more cases in one week than we did in the entire month prior. Crazy.

This whole mess is a wake up call for so many industries. Healthcare, IT, .gov, etc.

But I just LOVE how Trump isn't taking any blame for this. This happened on his watch and he needs to own it and fix it. This will seriously damage his chances of winning a second term unless he handles this shit better.
 
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Agree. Not sure why the Rs were fighting the Ds on transparency how how the bail out money was going to be spent? I mean...didn't anyone learn ANYTHING from 2008? Effing AIG gives huge bonuses to their execs and Congress doesn't do shit about it. Airlines were bailed out in 2002 and none paid it back. In fact, they used the money to eventually do stock buy backs eliminating cash on hand. Now they come to the .gov again complaining that they are cash strapped. Bail out the cruse industry???? F*CK THAT! That industry is not even critical to ANYTHING.

Meanwhile, the pleabs making $75K or less will get $1200 / adult and $500 / kid on a one time deal.

I work in the IT field. My company is making out like bandits because we are one of the larger VPN providers. People are beating down our doors to buy our gear so their users can work from home. Our support call volume has literally doubled in March. We took more cases in one week than we did in the entire month prior. Crazy.

This whole mess is a wake up call for so many industries. Healthcare, IT, .gov, etc.

But I just LOVE how Trump isn't taking any blame for this. This happened on his watch and he needs to own it and fix it. This will seriously damage his chances of winning a second term unless he handles this shit better.
Trump made the virus or ate the bat?
 

GomerPile

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My thinking on this:

1) Flyover states will slowly get back to work by mid April. That population is too small to generate much economic activity.
2) The .gov will probably spend $5-8T to keep shit together for the summer
3) The federal reserve is pretty much the buyer of all debt for some time to come. This will weaken the US Dollar, gold prices will rise as a result.
4) By summer most places will be slowly returning to work and economic activity will slowly rise.
5) Many small businesses will fail but the ones left might do very well for a short time.
6) In October we will see CV spike again and there will be another round of closings, and any economic gains will be be moderated.
7) The .gov will have to fund another round of helicopter money, and buy more assets from failing businesses.
8) The dollar will weaken more....

Digital crypto dollar will soon be a reality.
 
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Varmint

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Everyone seems to think the Fed is making daily "Trillion dollar stimulus!" announcements because of the virus and the economy.

It's because the Fed is deathly afraid of a financial collapse, due to the massive debts in every corner of the economy.

Every company that defaults on its debt is gonna trigger a wave of more defaults, since everyone is heavily leveraged, and so many bad debts have been securitized and passed around like candy.

Think 2008 but 10x bigger - and the global lockdown is going to put a massive strain on all that debt. The Fed will have to bail literally everyone out - or risk financial collapse. Not just airlines, or hotels, but every big corporation which borrowed heavily to buy its own stock, every pension fund heavily invested in AAA corporate debt which is really junk, every municipality invested in toxic assets, every city whose revenues suddenly drop w/ the lockdown, every big bank heavily invested in toxic assets.

It might take 10s of trillions of asset purchases. And it still may not work.
 

blindfire

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Trump made the virus or ate the bat?
Absolutely! :)

What he didn't do was take this shit seriously and order CDC and FDA to get their shit together and be prepared. Trump said that "We have 15 cases now and in a few days, it will be close to zero". I mean...come on, dude! He is the CEO and the buck stops with him on this. Are the hospitals to blame for not having sufficient stock on hand for PPE? Absolutely!

But the FDA and CDC completely screwed the pooch on this and ultimately, Trump is the guy in charge. You can't tell me that people wouldn't be blaming Obama for failing to act if he were in office right now? lol
 

Uzi2

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I do like that they included a provision in the stimulus bill to limit the potential for Trump and his relatives to profit off of the stimulus, that was a smart move.
You probably never had a word to say about the Clintons or Obozo and company enriching themselves at every opportunity that came their way.

I don't seem to remember either of them not taking a paycheck while in office either.
 
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daekken

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You probably never had a word to say about the Clintons or Obozo and compnay enriching themselves at every opportunity that came their way.

I don't seem to remember either of them not taking a paycheck while in office either.
I spoke out about it constantly, of course.

The point was that now Trump can point to the clause and that it was agreed he wouldn't profit from this. The fact that everyone agreed to it means he can easily point to it if anyone claims anything to the contrary.
 

number9

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3) The federal reserve is pretty much the buyer of all debt for some time to come. This will weaken the US Dollar, gold prices will rise as a result.
In a time of crisis, money flows towards safety. That safety has traditionally been U.S. Treasury Bills -- which will increase the value of the dollar, not decrease it.
 

Uzi2

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I spoke out about it constantly, of course.

The point was that now Trump can point to the clause and that it was agreed he wouldn't profit from this. The fact that everyone agreed to it means he can easily point to it if anyone claims anything to the contrary.
So, is the left now going to try to claim he profitted from this when people re elect him for handling the situation like a true leader?
Watch for that to be the first claim/accusation made by the left......bank on it.
 

drgrant

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And about two weeks in, we have absolutely crushed the record of unemployment claims by about four times the old record during the 2000s situation.

Getting more pessimistic everyday.
The 2008 thing was just a bunch of retards that were enabled into buying more houses than they could afford between a combination of unscrupulous lenders and a bunch of stupid government regs that enabled the whole thing. That was just one big sector. This shit on the other hand covers a ton of sectors. The worst part of which is if some of these employers die, those jobs aren't going to come back .... at least not immediately/directly.

-Mike
 
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