Pandemic Preparedness

Duxprep

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Sorry for the size of this post -

I'm sure many folks are familiar with H5N1 (Avian Flu) and all the hoopla in the news about it a year and 1/2 ago suggesting that if it were to go Pandemic we'd all be screwed. Since then most have forgotten the topic, the MSM (main stream media) certainly has. I, for one have not and have continued to follow the disturbing developments of this disease as well as our government’s and the rest of the world’s leader’s futile efforts to stop it.

The WHO (World Health Organization) and the US government has not been forthcoming to the American people about the developments with this disease as well as how individual families should be preparing themselves.

Some key highlights to share:

1) Currently this disease when contracted by humans has a fatality rate of 63%. Compare that to the 1918 Pandemic that only had a 2.5% fatality in which 150+ million people died. If this were to go Pandemic this would be a SHTF scenario like no other

2) There is NO vaccine and we would not have one to even produce until 6+ months into a pandemic. Then we'd need the time to produce enough for the world which would take years

3) Humans continue to contract this throughout the world, and in Indonesia, Egypt, Iraq and turkey, there have been both suspected and confirmed "clusters" in which it has passed from human to human. This represents a significant step toward a pandemic

4) We live in a global "just in Time" economy" in which the slightest supply chain disruption would have dramatic consequences. What do we still make in the US anyway? (well - my M&P 40 for one!! but not much else)

4) While many businesses and state governments have continued to work on preparedness plans, few of them address the realities of what will happen if a Pandemic with a high case fatality rate hits.

5) the government has provided many templates and checklists to help people prepare http://pandemicflu.gov however in my opinion they don't go far enough nor do they address what will happen to our "just in time" economy" if a pandemic were to hit

5) In February 07, the government released it's recommendations that schools should close for 12 weeks at the onset of a pandemic to limit spread. - Did you know that? Do you have plans for keeping your kids at home?




I could go on and on, but won't. Bottom line is if this were to become a pandemic, you're best bet for survival would be to shelter at home for at least 12 weeks
There are several excellent sources of information that give details on H5N1's progress as well as preparedness. I encourage everyone to find out more.

http://www.fluwikie.com - One of the original sources for H5N1 Pandemic discussion and preparedness planning
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/frontPage.do- New Fluwikie forum - Lots of news hounds aggregate H5NI news from across the globe
http://www.pfiforum.com - Plan for Pandemic Forum




Some notable quotes:

The arrival of a pandemic influenza would trigger a reaction that would change the world overnight. A vaccine would not be available for a number of months after the pandemic started, and there are very limited stockpiles of antiviral drugs. Foreign trade and travel would be reduced or even ended in an attempt to stop the virus from entering new countries. It is likely that transportation would also be significantly curtailed domestically, as smaller communities sought to keep the disease contained.-- Michael T. Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Associate Director of the Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense, and Professor at the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health

“Any community that fails to prepare and expects the federal government will come to the rescue is tragically wrong. It’s not because we don’t care, don’t want to, or don’t have the money, but because it’s logistically impossible,” Michael Levitt - US Secretary of Health and Human Services - This was actually communicated to EVERY state governor during pandemic summits held in each state.
 
A pandemic such as this would of course be absolutely awful, perhaps comparable to or even exceeding full-scale nuclear war depending on just how much it spreads and what the fatality rate is. We won't know exactly until the mutation actually happens; the same mutation that makes it spread easily H2H could also render it less dangerous (OR, even more dangerous). Even if it isn't all that bad as we fear, the economic devastation from most people refusing to go to work would put an end to the supply chains and the food we get, etc.

For starters, I'd prepare to quarantine yourself in your own house. This of course means you'd need a sufficient water supply and enough food to last however long that might be. The longer the better. Most people don't prepare, so most would starve with this approach.

If a FEMA guy ever goes door to door trying to round up people to bring them to a "camp", refuse to go! Nothing like a crowded camp to spread disease really fast.

Depending on your circumstances and how well the economy holds out, you may be able to telecommute to your job. My company doesn't like people connecting remotely all that much, but a pandemic is the perfect excuse. I can do this as long as they don't lay me off due to the economic downturn (which is likely though). My company even has posted notices in the kitchens that people should plan to telecommute in the event of a flu epidemic.

And of course, avoid malls, stores and other places where people collect as much as possible. Only go out on a grocery trip as a last resort and get as much as you can at once. Shutting down the schools nationwide is an excellent idea. It isn't devastating to have the kids miss a few months of crappy schooling, but it is devastating if they're spreading the flu everywhere, and I can't think of any germ spreader more formidable than the child. If you do venture out, be a germ freak; wear mask (better buy them in advance), try not to touch anything like door knobs or shopping cart handles or pens at the checkout counters, buy Purel by the gallon and use it until your hands are cracked from drying out.

You may also want to make yourself elderberry tincture in advance. Sambucol is the main brand-name version of elderberry tincture (it also adds echinacea), and has been shown in a study to reduce the length and severity of flu by 50% if one starts taking VERY early on in the infection. In a pandemic, Sambucol will instantly disappear from the shelves. It's easy to make your own; buy mason jars, vodka and dried elderberry (NOT a poisonous kind) -- put 1 part berries, 2 parts vodka per mason jar, seal and let sit at least 7-10 days. If you need it, take a few tablespoons every 3-4 hours or so (strain out the berries, they're nasty to accidentally swallow), repeat until you're either all better, or dead.
 
Water would likely not be much of an issue -- provided the water supply did not fail, it would be highly unlikely to be contaminated during such a pandemic.

The issue would be how much food you have stored, not how much water.
 
M1911 - Water would likely not be much of an issue
I'm not so sure. Given that most local municipalities only stock about a weeks worth of chlorine and other chemicals necessary to treat water I would think they'd run out quickly in a SHTF scenario. Taken a step further, if a Pandemic were severe enough there would likely be core infrastucture problems due to absenteesim, death and breakdowns in the supply chain. If you have problems with the grid you have a whole host of issues to contend with - Water, Heating, cooking, food production, security - everything needs electricity. The government has already projected a 40% absenteesim rate, and that is based on their current worst case scenario model of 2.5% case fatality rate (CFR) . Per my orginal post the CFR is currently at 63%. While it may go down if it goes Pandemic, theres no reason to think it will reduce to 2.5% (which will still be a disaster)

From my perspective, if the govenment has not instructed people to prepare themselves to be completely self sufficient for 12 weeks (rather than 2) then we are certain to experience these types of infrastructure failures. I can understand why we're told two weeks in that the current food supply of the US could not support many people prepping at the same time, however I find it deeply troubling that we're told 2 weeks and US state department employees are told 12 weeks - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/nov706quarantine.html

12 weeks of prep is no small feat to accomplish and I recognize that everyone has limits to their sense of urgency as well as their means. It takes time and effort to think through what you yourself would need/want and then to begin to gather those resources.

You just need to start....
 
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I fortunet that I can telecomute to work when I need/want to. I don't think I'd have to worry about layoffs where I work in the flu pandemic scenario... Partners HealthCare owns Mass General and Brigham and Women's hospitals and also many smaller community hospitals... they'd be quite busy... The only down side if there is a shortage of nurses and other staff us IS folks could be summoned to fill in gaps were possible...
 
I fortunet that I can telecomute to work when I need/want to. I don't think I'd have to worry about layoffs where I work in the flu pandemic scenario... Partners HealthCare owns Mass General and Brigham and Women's hospitals and also many smaller community hospitals... they'd be quite busy... The only down side if there is a shortage of nurses and other staff us IS folks could be summoned to fill in gaps were possible...

Making an IS person do nursing duties would be a very dangerous undertaking! I would pity the poor patients! [laugh] [laugh2]

My Wife also works for Partners in an admin role. Don't think she'd ever be tapped to work nursing (which is something she originally wanted to do before college).
 
Making an IS person do nursing duties would be a very dangerous undertaking! I would pity the poor patients! [laugh] [laugh2]

My Wife also works for Partners in an admin role. Don't think she'd ever be tapped to work nursing (which is something she originally wanted to do before college).

Many of the IS folks here (especially the analysts) have clinical experience. Many were nurses or lab technicians etc. before joining IS. And I did say "and other staff", I'm sure there are plenty of things that someone without a degree could do. I personally wouldn't want to be anywhere near an hospital if this happens...
 
Stupid question.

What happens to everyone's debt when 9 ouf of 10 people don't report to work for months on end? Specifically mortgages. Do banks foreclose on those who have no income as a result of the pandemic? So 150-200 million people go homeless? Would the government freeze all such activity?
 
I would guess the feds would freeze a lot of that stuff, I think they did that with Hurricane Katrina. Of course if society collapsed then I say let them try to collect.[wink]
 
It would be curious to see what the rationing plans are for cases when there is a limited supply of vaccine. There will be some public health allocations (those needing it the most); public safety and caregivers (so they can be exposed to the sick), and most probably some "special" people as well - we couldn't risk having our congressmen too sick to pass new laws to controls us.
 
Pandemic Vaccines

Problem with Vaccines is that you can't begin development of a pandemic vaccine until you have the pandemic strain. Once you have it it takes 4-6 months to create the vaccine. THEN you begin production. The current technology used for FLu Vaccines involves growing them in Eggs and it takes many months. Even if they had a pandemic FLu Vaccine that worked the current annual vaccine production capacity of the world is 300 million doses and they are ALL made outside the US. That said it would likely take a year to produce just a little bit of Pandemic Flu Vaccine for those critical personnel. The rest of the world is SOL. So what do we all do during that first year of a Pandemic with no Vaccine?
 
Per my original post - there are many home grown forums in which these topics are discussed www.pfiforum.com www.fluwikie.com etc.. For the first time the government has begun a forum in which we can communicate directly and share frustration and concern about the lack of accurate information, waning media interest, ethics and poor community preparedness

"On June 13, Michael O. Leavitt, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, is convening a leadership forum on pandemic preparedness, which brings together highly influential leaders from the business, faith, civic and health care sectors to discuss how best to help Americans become more prepared for a possible influenza pandemic. The Department is hosting this five-week blog summit to expand this conversation as part of an ongoing effort by the Department to help Americans become more prepared."

Its a very, very interesting dialog. http://blog.pandemicflu.gov/
 
Notable Developments

Keeping you all posted of notable developments. [wink]

Taken from the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/index.html

Indonesia suspects ominous H5N1 mutations
Lisa Schnirring Staff Writer


Jun 6, 2007 (CIDRAP News) – Officials from Indonesia's avian flu commission said today that the H5N1 avian influenza virus may have mutated in a way that makes it more transmissible from birds to humans, but a World Health Organization (WHO) official said the WHO had seen no evidence of such a change, according to news services. This is due to the fact that Indonesia, due to politics, has not shared virus samples with the WHO so they have been virtually blind as far as tracking mutations - Duxprep

Bayu Krisnamurthi, chief executive for Indonesia's National Committee for Avian Influenza Control and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness, told reporters that in the past, human infections required high-intensity and high-density exposure to the H5N1 virus, according to a Reuters report today. "There are now suspicions that this [infection] has become easier," he said, adding that a mutation has not been confirmed yet.

Wayan Teguh Wibawan, a microbiologist from Indonesia's avian flu commission, told Reuters that the suspicions are based on preliminary results of genetic tests at laboratories in Indonesia. The amino acid structure of poultry H5N1 samples is becoming increasingly similar to that seen in human H5N1 samples, he said.

The similarity in amino acid structure makes it easier for the virus to attach to receptors on cells that line the throat and lungs, Wibawan told Reuters. The virus would have to attach readily to human cell receptors in order to easily pass from birds to humans, he said.

Wibawan told Reuters he had noted "gradual changes" in the virus samples he receives each month, but he gave no other details.

However, Gregory Hartl, a WHO spokesman, told Reuters that the WHO has not seen any evidence that the virus has become more transmissible to humans.

The WHO has received very few H5N1 isolates from Indonesia recently. Hartl told CIDRAP News today that the agency has received just three Indonesian H5N1 samples, gathered from two patients, this year. "Without virus characterization, we cannot say whether the virus has changed or not," he said.

Indonesia withheld H5N1 samples from the WHO for about 5 months, starting last December, as a protest against the country's lack of access to pandemic vaccines and other pandemic medications. In mid-May, during the WHO's annual meeting in Geneva, the country's health minister announced that Indonesia had resumed sending samples to the agency. News reports at the time said the country had submitted three H5N1 samples to a WHO-affiliated laboratory.

Lo Wing-Iok, an infectious disease expert in Hong Kong, said the suspected changes in the virus show how important it is for Indonesia to share its samples with the global community, according to the Reuters report today.

"These must be confirmed and the world must be forewarned if there has been such an important change," he told Reuters. "If there is such a change, it would not only mean that the virus can jump more easily from bird to man, but from human to human, too."

Indonesia has had 99 human H5N1 cases with 79 deaths, more than any other country. WHO data show that from January through May of this year, the country had 26 cases with 21 deaths, versus 31 cases and 24 deaths for the same period in 2006. Indonesia is one of three countries, along with Egypt and Vietnam, where the H5N1 virus is endemic in poultry.
 
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