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North Korea Developments

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Bob J, May 27, 2009.

  1. Bob J

    Bob J NES Member

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  2. jpoulette

    jpoulette

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    I think this wacko is just looking for a reason to lob rockets over the border.

    Reminds me of a rabit raccoon - wandering around in a circle, growling at what ever crosses his path.
     
  3. BBQ.Uncle

    BBQ.Uncle NES Life Member NES Member

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    I don't think Kim wants a war. I think he wants further concessions by the U.S. and the U.N. and is using this to get what he wants. We'll agree to sit down and make nice, as we've done before, and feed his country and provide them with energy while he makes empty promises about nukes, etc. etc. etc. Same ole shite, different administration.

    Of course, I could be wrong and this could be a full scale nuclear conflict involving us, China & Russia, but what the heck do I know.
     
  4. GrendelKhan

    GrendelKhan

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    He's been sick. Likely a stroke. This might be members of the next generation proving who is the strongest leader.

    Maybe he's dead already. They've faked pictures of him in the past...

    Stop feeding these people!
     
  5. Larry Legend

    Larry Legend

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    My knee jerk reaction to things like this are always "good, let the bastards launch a missile at someone. Then we can push a button and turn (insert country here) into a parking lot."
     
  6. richc

    richc NES Member

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    If he has had a stroke as has been suggested, I worry about his mental stability. If he feels like he is on his way out this may be a time when he wants to leave a legacy.

    He is motivated by power and ego and will stop at nothing to achieve these goals. I do believe he is fully capable of unspeakable acts.

    Rich
     
  7. Pete85

    Pete85

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    Easy way to deal with North Korea is to stop feeding them. Block off the borders and stop all ships from entering the country. North Korea has 24 million people living on about 46,000 sq. miles of land. Of that 46,000, less than 20% is suitible for farming. That leaves about a quarter acre of farmland per person in the country which is nowhere near sustainible even under the best of conditions. Stop food shipments for 30 days and see how fast they'll give up their nukes.

    ETA: If you think this sounds a little extreme, considder the fact that if war breaks out with NK, these shipments are going to stop anyway.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  8. Bill Nance

    Bill Nance Banned

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    There's this small, insignificant country that might object to having their Vassal State starved into submission to the U.S. and Japan: CHINA. That's really the only significant source of trade for the DPRK anyway.
     
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  9. M1911

    M1911 Moderator NES Member

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    No, I don't think they want war.

    Bingo. Much of this has to do with inside politics, concerning who is going to take over after Kim.

    That would require the cooperation of the Chinese. China shares a long border with North Korea and is their largest trading partner. China rejects any call for tighter sanctions against North Korea. China is very concerned that if North Korea falls into chaos that a millions of refugees would surge across their border into China. Tighter sanctions against North Korea just are not going to happen.

    Extreme? No, it doesn't sound extreme. What it sounds like, to be kind, is wishful thinking. China won't allow it.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  10. richc

    richc NES Member

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  11. Bill Nance

    Bill Nance Banned

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    From Stratfor:

    (Older article but nothing has changed)

     
  12. M1911

    M1911 Moderator NES Member

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    The North Korean rulers saw what happened to Iraq. Their army was annihilated by the United Nations forces (mostly the US Army) during the Korean War. I think they are under no illusions that they could survive against the US Army in the long run. Once we mobilized enough forces in theater, they'd be toast. They'd acquit themselves far, far better than the Iraqi Army, and we would likely have huge losses, but the outcome would be a foregone conclusion.

    If, as a result of such a war, they were captured by US forces, they know that they would face a similar fate to Saddam. The North Korean rulers want to keep their heads attached to their necks, and want to continue to live in luxury while ruling with absolute power.

    If they have a credible nuclear weapon, they feel that the US would be far less likely to invade. As much as I hate the idea of North Korea having nuclear weapons, I understand why their leadership is pursuing them.
     
  13. Bob P

    Bob P NES Member

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    Some bike riders jink unpredictably while riding on the road. The intent is to foce motorists to pay attention to them, ultimatly earning them a degree of safety on the road. Sort of the same situation here. NK clutivates a reputation for unpredictability to force the US, Japan and SK into caution in dealing with them. It's a tactic that's worked for them for 46 years.
     
  14. Bob J

    Bob J NES Member

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    Think the really interesting question is where they got the bomb from.....

    My understanding is that after the 2006 fiasco they shut down/destroyed their breeder reactors in exchange for aid.... Even with the reactors they would need the means to enrich which is not trivial....

    Interesting article on how they estimate yield.....

    http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/how-to-measure-north-koreas-nuclear-blast/
     
  15. M1911

    M1911 Moderator NES Member

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    Probably got centrifuge technology from A.Q. Kahn.
     
  16. FiremanBob

    FiremanBob NES Member

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    As I remember it, they only destroyed a couple of cooling towers at one reactor. Most of their weapons program is hidden and hardened, like Iran's.

    I am skeptical about the prowess of the NK army. I think that a psyops campaign could turn them relatively easily, especially when they compare their nation's living standards to those of S. Korea.
     
  17. Bill Nance

    Bill Nance Banned

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    What part of 1000 artillery pieces pointed at Seoul did you miss? They could be an ARAB army and destroy SK's capitol before we could do anything about it.
     
  18. richc

    richc NES Member

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    How long does the world live with the threats and escalating weapons capabilities of NK?

    For years they have been making threats and getting appeased. And all along the way they have increased and improved their weapons capabilities, ignoring all admonitions and sanctions. He does not care about sanctions, he simply allows millions of his populace to starve.

    Now they have nukes. At some point they will have more powerful nukes and the ability to deliver them via warhead.

    What will they demand then? How much longer does this little despot make threats and get his way?

    There has to be a tipping point. Whether it is now or in the future, at some point the world will have to draw a line in the sand. That is when it will get interesting.

    In the meantime our political leaders keep putting this off and making it a problem for future administrations and generations.

    I know it is not that simple. But if someone had dealt with this several decades ago perhaps Seoul would not be at such risk. And if we don't deal with it now God knows what will be at risk in another decade.

    A policy of appeasement only postpones the inevitable.

    Best,

    Rich
     
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  19. pipmaster1971

    pipmaster1971

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    It's not them launching a nuke at Seoul that worries me so much. I really think they're not that stupid. My worry is that they are short of hard-cash. They could get a lot of that hard-cash by selling one of those nukes on the black market.

    Of course, as another poster mentioned Kim-Ding Dong is unstable enough to try anything.
     
  20. Bill Nance

    Bill Nance Banned

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    Unless and until we have the backing of the Chinese there's not a damned thing we can really do about this. I WISH we could bomb the sites, just as I WISH it was feasible to do that with Iran. But in both cases we're faced with costs for that that outweigh the (maybe) benefits.

    Best case scenario is that Kim dies and someone who's not a paranoid nutjob takes over with whom we can make an actual deal (which would include sampling any possible sources of fissile material).

    Once we've done that we can make it clear that any nuke with NK fingerprints will result in a parking lot where NK used to be.

    who knows, maybe we can get a Deng Xiaoping in NK who will say "It's glorious to get rich," and we can bypass this crap. But either way, I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make decisions on this crap. It's enough to make any sane person tear their hair out in frustration.
     
  21. Mike S

    Mike S NES Member

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    That would be the Clinton administrtion sports fans.. remember? Yet another of their wonderful moves to buy the world a coke and keep it company... doesn't it give you a warm and fuzzy feeling?
     
  22. Jose

    Jose Guest

    It's time to fix our trade problem with China once and for all.

    Turn 6 billion chinamen into 6 million. We might deplete our nuke arsenal, but damn, it would be the best use of my tax dollars ever.
     
  23. TomH

    TomH

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    He has already been responsible for unspeakable acts. Just look at how they treat their own people. They're starving, and under that oppressive government. Many try desperately to escape. I wonder what the unknown death toll is over there.
     
  24. JuergenG

    JuergenG NES Member

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    Interesting opinion, to say the least [​IMG]
     

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