More Guns ≠ More Gun Deaths

[MaverickNH]

What the data says about gun deaths in the U.S.

While the number of gun deaths in the U.S. fell for the second consecutive year in 2023, it remained among the highest annual totals on record.

www.pewresearch.org

Pew decided to run a guns article, for no particular reason. But comparing their CDC-sourced data to that from The Trace unequivocally demonstrates that more gun in the US have not lead to more gun deaths. Since the late 60s, the number of guns in the US has increased ~500%, while the number of gun suicides and gun murder goes up and down less than 5%.

As well, they note: ”Rifles – the category that includes guns sometimes referred to as “assault weapons” – were involved in 4% of firearm murders.”

 

[MaverickNH]

I just reviewed a manuscript for a top-10 medical journal authored by top-experts in gun control academics from Stanford and Boston. Their work compared the early-COVID surge in 1st-time lawful gun-buyers in CA and the US as well as the initial surge in gun-deaths during early COVID. They found that the rates of 1st-time gun acquisitions were driven by women, ethic and racial subpopulations in both CA and the US. In both CA and the US, gun-deaths have declined for the 3rd straight year, a matter they do not mention.

I recommended the manuscript not be accepted, as it was just a data/statistics paper rather than a paper suggesting some causality. They DID suggest that the increase in 1st-time firearms acquisitions might lead to greater risk in those subpopulations. Indeed, recent reports show that while oevral gun-deaths are going down, gun-deaths continue to increase in Blacks (but not women, Hispanics and Asians.

I suggested they explain:
1. Why there are disproportionately fewer deaths per gun between 1970 and 2024
2. Why Black gun-deaths continue to increase
3. Why guns lawfully acquired in CA might be the cause for the surge in CA gun deaths when unlawfully possessed guns remained unabated - CA ceased their door-to-door seizures of revoked gun permits during COVID.

I expect no answers.

They'll just publish elsewhere. That's what the editor wanted, I'm sure.