Market in the toilet who’s buying?

edmorseiii

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Dow is touching 22k right now. I am thinking this is likely to fall when some real covid numbers start coming over the next 5 days or so, what does everyone else think?
 

Varmint

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Dow is touching 22k right now. I am thinking this is likely to fall when some real covid numbers start coming over the next 5 days or so, what does everyone else think?
9 of the greatest 10 days in the stock market history occurred in the middle of a market crash, and none of them marked the bottom.

Tuesday was #5 in history.

The one exception? Black Monday in 1987, which was a technical glitch, not a bear market.

So . . . odds aren't good that we've bottomed. But you can make huge money in bear market rallies. This one could go as high as 2700 on S&P500.
 

track65

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The market will not like it when the numbers come out of the amount of people filing for unemployment comp.
 

Varmint

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The market will not like it when the numbers come out of the amount of people filing for unemployment comp.
First it'll be unemployment the likes of which we haven't seen since the Great Depression, and it didn't happen so fast then.

Next it'll be corporate earnings - horrifying, and no guidance on future earnings.

Next will be all the corporations who are full of debt, and now with reduced or no revenues, can't make their interest payments.

Next the wave of corporations defaulting on their debt, or going bankrupt, will cause banks to blow up and need rescues.

After that, who knows, maybe dollar collapse? At least we know the Euro will blow up first.

Somewhere in there, the pandemic will subside, but the damage to the economy will be done already. Hopefully Trump can get re-elected before this happens.
 

andrew1220

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Well my $1200 finally cleared and allowed me to buy some stock this morning. Spent it all across 7 stocks. They’re doing good right now (up $65 from this morning! [laugh]) but obviously that could change at any given time. Just wanted to get my feet wet. If I lose the money I can still survive.

I’ll be getting $1200 from the stimulus anyway so....tempting to invest that too...🤔
 
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Shawnyc

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Sold some shares of a tech ETF and spread it out on Zoom, Yeti, Shell (RDS.A), Enphase Energy, and Solar Edge. So far it has paid of immensely. Not sure how long I’ll hold these but my guess is the tech/semiconductor industry is not going to recover anytime soon.
 
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First it'll be unemployment the likes of which we haven't seen since the Great Depression, and it didn't happen so fast then.

Next it'll be corporate earnings - horrifying, and no guidance on future earnings.

Next will be all the corporations who are full of debt, and now with reduced or no revenues, can't make their interest payments.

Next the wave of corporations defaulting on their debt, or going bankrupt, will cause banks to blow up and need rescues.
I can't argue that but it will be said that it is already priced into the market.
 

USS_Silversides

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Sold some shares of a tech ETF and spread it out on Zoom, Yeti, Shell (RDS.A), Enphase Energy, and Solar Edge. So far it has paid of immensely. Not sure how long I’ll hold these but my guess is the tech/semiconductor industry is not going to recover anytime soon.
Yeti? That won’t go up until the NES ban is lifted
 

Varmint

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Sold some shares of a tech ETF and spread it out on Zoom, Yeti, Shell (RDS.A), Enphase Energy, and Solar Edge. So far it has paid of immensely. Not sure how long I’ll hold these but my guess is the tech/semiconductor industry is not going to recover anytime soon.
In this market take profits!
 
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Dow futures down 954 right now.
Looks to be another day of carnage.
Since you posted this on a Sunday at 9:40 PM, I have to ask... where's the best place to see Futures the night before a trading day?

I usually only look at Futures in the morning before trading starts.
 

92G

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Dow is touching 22k right now. I am thinking this is likely to fall when some real covid numbers start coming over the next 5 days or so, what does everyone else think?
the incoming plummet will make past 5 weeks look modest

the establishment makes $$ by gaslighting the small investor. this “stimulus” rally is perfect example. see how it confuses people into enthusiasm? scam
 

Varmint

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I can't argue that but it will be said that it is already priced into the market.
well yeah, the mainstream financial media will never say anything but "it's time to buy".

it's hard to be sure of anything because the world has never seen so much QE. We don't know what it'll do.
 

Varmint

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Since you posted this on a Sunday at 9:40 PM, I have to ask... where's the best place to see Futures the night before a trading day?

I usually only look at Futures in the morning before trading starts.
It starts trading 6 pm Sunday.

 

headednorth

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Whenever I think of how inflated everything has been for the last 10+ years and how this virus was just the spark that set off the crash that HAD to be coming and how beyond horrendous the upcoming economic news will be going forward, I think of the US gov pouring TRILLIONS of dollars in to keep everything afloat. Can a market that should be going nowhere but down resist that much money going in?
 

Varmint

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Whenever I think of how inflated everything has been for the last 10+ years and how this virus was just the spark that set off the crash that HAD to be coming and how beyond horrendous the upcoming economic news will be going forward, I think of the US gov pouring TRILLIONS of dollars in to keep everything afloat. Can a market that should be going nowhere but down resist that much money going in?
Most of the Fed's stimulus is bond buying and loans. There's only so many loans the system can take before it wants no more. And the Fed can't force banks to use the free money to buy stocks or loan it out.

in the past this was enough to drive up stocks. But now the market is worried the Fed has lost control, and if the Fed can't keep interest rates down, and they shoot up to even 3-4% and you're talking financial disaster. Then there's all these zombie companies already full in debt and about to see revenues drop drastically.

then there's the oil crash, which by itself might have been enough to cause major problems.

So if the stock market doesn't recover, the Fed may have to ask Congress to let them buy stocks like Japan and some other countries' central banks do. Hasn't worked for Japan but the Fed doesn't know how to stop itself.
 
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I can't argue that but it will be said that it is already priced into the market.
I dunno, I don't think it's priced in yet. SPY closed today at 244, where it was in mid 2017. During the 2008 housing bubble bust, it fell below dot com low point in 2002. I could see 6 years of gains getting erased again, which would put it at ~190.

Unemployment number comes out tommorrow, gonna get interesting.
 

JJ4

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Took a gamble on airlines today : DAL, AAL, JBLU. We'll see... one or more could still go to zero, or could double.

My ZM position is doing well.
 

Varmint

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Anyone think we hit 160 before we get any sort of significant bounce?
we are bouncing now, from way oversold condition. It will probably continue til we hit s&p500 of 2700 or we get some big bad news, like unemployment of 2+ million. Then we go test the lows of 2170 or so.
 

Stryker

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Unemployment numbers from last week just announced at 3.28M, at the high side of the estimates - market futures not moving too much, so guessing most of this has been priced in already
 

Varmint

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Unemployment numbers from last week just announced at 3.28M, at the high side of the estimates - market futures not moving too much, so guessing most of this has been priced in already
looks like market was expecting close to this number. Big test will be today after 3 pm, I'd expect a big move up or down today.
 

SKumar

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Took a gamble on airlines today : DAL, AAL, JBLU. We'll see... one or more could still go to zero, or could double.

My ZM position is doing well.
No gamble. Airlines are WAY undervalued. Im sorry, but Southwest not 33% less valuable.
 

Dennis in MA

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About 15 yrs ago, a family friend was doing some work for a local contractor. Was sent to this house. "We installed this toilet yesterday. He hates it. Here's the new one. Put it in and junk the old one."

Bill knocks on customer door. Door opens. "Hi. I'm Yoyo Ma!" "Hi, I'm Bill to replace your toilet."

Bill figured the toilet was a day old. Maybe one dump old. His son was gutting his house. So he kept said Yoyo toilet and his son had it in his house. Not sure if it made the house more valuable. But a collectors-item (no paperwork - Rick would have to pass on an offer) toilet market.


PS - and LITERALLY, that's how Yoyo Ma answered his door. Door opens. "Hi, I'm Yoyo Ma!" LOL. Would you answer your door that way????
 

Dennis in MA

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No gamble. Airlines are WAY undervalued. Im sorry, but Southwest not 33% less valuable.

If it was a known, it would already be priced in. Hence, it's a gamble. As I mentioned pages ago, what happens when business travel doesn't rise to it's previous levels b/c everyone realizes it's not cost effective after being forced to teleconference for 6-8 weeks???? There is REAL potential for the airline industry to take another long-term cutback.
 
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