Market in the toilet who’s buying?

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I was already all-in on the market before the pandemic started, but conveniently my company paid annual bonuses this week so I put that money into June 2021 call options on the S&P index. The shit we're in now may end in victory or in tragedy, but regardless it's going to end, and when it does the economy is going to come roaring back like we've not seen since the postwar era.
 

Dennis in MA

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We're in a chicken market- everyone sells, people buy the dip, things go back up, people sell profit, dip again...

I'm not smart enough to know where the bottom is, but I am smart enough to know that we're just starting this thing and at best we're a quarter deep into this problem

So we're a quarter deep we are 33% down? So when it's over we all owe 33%???? LOL

I don't like your math. ;)
 
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I've re-loaded by TD Amertrade account and I'm ready to go in. Sub 20K came so fast, I may do as-above and wait for 18K.
We have to reached the peak of the virus yet, I think we have farther to fall.
When the market turns, it will turn on dime however: we get this under control and it will shoot like a rocket.

XOM, Chevron, what else? I'm looking for bargain ideas. Solid blue chip / dividend stocks at lows?
Paul, while I have some credentials, I am not a licensed advisor. Personally, I would stay away from oil stocks. I read several advisor letters each week and at this point there seems to be no consensus. I also would not look to dividend stocks in this environment--I'm looking for good companies that have been unreasonably beaten down and have the opportunity for strong capital gains is the way to surf the the coming upside, if you believe that. If I were buying for your daughters years down the road, I would look at companies like Wells Fargo (WFC). It's been beaten down by scandals and bad press, canned a CEO, and restricted by the .gov. Yet they have an underlying strength that cannot be replicated. It's in the mid 20s now--in ten years it will sell for ten times that. There are lots of companies in the same boat. I would not ever go near transportation companies, no matter how attractive they may currently seem, and I've learned my lesson about commodities. If you want more thoughts, PM me.
 

Scuderia

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Stick to your day job (hopefully it's not managing other people's money). Just about everything you've just stated here is wrong. No underlying problems? lol

The market could easily drop another 50% from here. The VIX is at 74 and therefore not a time to be investing.

Don’t make the mistake of thinking this is all just a reaction to Covid 19 and the market will bounce right back once it passes. We were headed into a global recession BEFORE Covid 19 was discovered. Japan’s GDP was down almost 7% for the 4th quarter before there was any Covdid. Covid 19 was just the catalyst for what was already coming. There’s far more leverage in the system now than there was in 2008 and this is going to be ugly. There will be a credit crunch in here as well and that hasn’t even started. If you must buy something now then I would only be buying companies with strong balance sheets and credit ratings as they will be the only ones with access to capital.
(This is not investment advice)

Still contributing to my 401k, so yeah. We're about to the point where you should absolutely buy. I think there's a little left to drop, but this is going to come roaring back once the kung flu passes. There are no underlying financial problems here like there was in 2008/2009. It's all panic over the virus.
 
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PaulR

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blah de blah de blah, more stock tips please.
I want symbols!
Obie I hear you on the dividend stock thing, problem is when you see track records like 30 years of dividends paid...it's hard to look the other way.
Must be in for cap gains though you're right.
 
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I don't think it's hit the bottom yet. It won't until corona is under control.
What some talking heads are saying is that by the time it is "under control", it will be too late. The bottom will have already come and gone.

But don't go by them or me. I've lost more money in the stock market than some folks will ever make in a lifetime. [thinking]
 

mibro

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XOM is at its tech-bubble lows fwiw.

Exxon Mobil and Shell are both selling at 1995 prices.

XOM, Chevron, what else? I'm looking for bargain ideas. Solid blue chip / dividend stocks at lows?

I've been buying Exxon and Shell. The dividend yield on Shell is insane. Almost 17% right now. Shell hasn't cut its dividend since WW2.

Could the third largest company in the world (Shell) go under? I really don't think so.
 
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mibro

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Do you think they'll suspend dividends sometime in the near term? Wait till then?

My gut says no. It's a core value for the company. Also, the pension funds of Europe rely on the Shell dividend. They might pay the dividend in scrip (stock) for a while.

Most likely outcome, I think, is buying Shell at $22.00 will look like a really dumb idea - for a while - then look brilliant. Fingers crossed.
 

PaulR

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With my luck: Buy in now guys. It's going back up tomorrow, I'll put in a market order in the morning that won't get filled until the price booms.
 

Mountain

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Exxon Mobil and Shell are both selling at 1995 prices.



I've been buying Exxon and Shell. The dividend yield on Shell is insane. Almost 17% right now. Shell hasn't cut its dividend since WW2.

Could the third largest company in the world (Shell) go under? I really don't think so.

Chevron also known to be solid for dividends payout. Who knows how this crash will affect that. We unloaded some at 133 and kept the rest, waiting for another geopolitical event. Yeah, we got one LOL.
 

mav

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The 3-5 year returns from the bottoms of bears markets are usually pretty decent
No idea when the bottom will be reached though


View attachment 339915

Ancient Chinese Proverb: Man who tries to pick bottom only gets stinky finger. The majority who try and pick a bottom end up catching a falling knife. If your time horizon is long enough, buy in stages... otherwise known as dollar cost average in. Most don't look for good entries, but the reality is the entry point determines the potential return. DCA in during the waves of selling. Buy when there is "blood in the streets".

What

What? You are now using Bernie language. "Wall Street speculation." You mean investing? Investing in a company is not like buying a cow, it's more like buying the future possibilities of growth. Cows can produce more cows; more cows can produce more milk; more milk brings in more money. I bought my first stock in 1980--100 shares of the Chase Manhattan Bank. Forty years later, dividends all reinvested, even with the last few weeks of downturn, it's worth more than my house.

What he means is that for the most part, stocks no longer function using fundamental analysis of valuations. Stocks are now almost purely valued based on momemtum and the Greater Fool theory (someone will buy it from me at a higher price). Take a look at Tesla and Ford stock and tell us what you see. Ford just suspended it's dividend. Tesla never had one. The reality is the market is completely broken... has been since 9/11/2001. Feds have kept money cheap for too long with low interest rates and have backstopped the markets. They created MORAL HAZARD. We saw it again in the 2008 financial crash and the bank bailouts. Now we're seeing the government open up the stops again with Coronavirus: bailouts for business too big to fail and helicoptor money for everyone.

Might as well buy because this game will keep going... until it can't. When is that? When is the Great Reset? Closer than we think. Dollar as global reserve currency, global oil trade only priced in dollars, US Treasury Bonds safest investment globally, until it isn't. At some point, the musical chairs stop. Then it's Zimbabwe, Weimar Republic, Venezuala, Iran, etc. Got gold? Got Real Estate? Got Bitcoin? Zimbabwe's stock market is the best performing market in the world... too bad even those returns don't help when inflation is 1,000,000% a year.

Forgot to mention, your example of Chase Bank.... I have relatives who bought real estate 30 years ago post 1989 crash and high interest rates. Guess what? They sold and are worth millions now. That was a one time event: the move from 10%+ rates to 0 and soon negative rates was a 1-way trip. Those who were old enough (or alive) and got in made out. The rest of us, not so lucky. Will we see another opportunity like that for today's buyers of stocks or real estate? Magic Eight Ball says... outlook not so good.
 

mav

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I've re-loaded by TD Amertrade account and I'm ready to go in. Sub 20K came so fast, I may do as-above and wait for 18K.
We have to reached the peak of the virus yet, I think we have farther to fall.
When the market turns, it will turn on dime however: we get this under control and it will shoot like a rocket.

XOM, Chevron, what else? I'm looking for bargain ideas. Solid blue chip / dividend stocks at lows?
Companies hard hit by this are stopping paying dividends. Also, look for the Fed to put conditions on bailout money: no stock buybacks, no dividends. Makes sense... if you have cash on hand to return to investors or buy back the float, you don't emergancy bailout funds...
 
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"Forgot to mention, your example of Chase Bank.... I have relatives who bought real estate 30 years ago post 1989 crash and high interest rates. Guess what? They sold and are worth millions now. "

My comment was in reply to a question about what stocks to buy now, not asset allocation. I too bought real estate 30 years ago, and guess what, I'm a peer of your relatives.
 

mav

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Exxon Mobil and Shell are both selling at 1995 prices.



I've been buying Exxon and Shell. The dividend yield on Shell is insane. Almost 17% right now. Shell hasn't cut its dividend since WW2.

Could the third largest company in the world (Shell) go under? I really don't think so.
The problem with oil stocks is that in addition to falling demand to due to global economic contraction from Coronavirus, we're in an oil cartel war to boot. OPEC, KSA, Russia and the US are all exporters and KSA and Russia want to knock US Shale down. Add in that US shale companies are overlevered, and it's a very risky time to be long oil. Looking at valuation comparisons won't help because we haven't been here before.
 

mav

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Which is my point. That was a one-way trip for interest rates. Can anyone here look at the US economy, US balance sheets, US debt, etc and ever thing we'll get to 3.00% FFR, 4.00%? The reality is, just like those lucky few who bought select fire M16's back in the 80's are sitting pretty while the rest of us who were late to the party can only wish we could afford $20k+ on what is in essense a toy (never mind the buy-in price, what about the cost to feed it), most of us won't see returns like that in Real Estate going forward. In fact, I fully expect to see no positive returns in real estate dueo to changing demographics and it's impact on demand, not to mention current interest rates and rates going forward. We need a reset in order to clear the board and create new opportunities for those not fortunate to have been born a boomer.
 

Cap'n Mike

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My serious money is in real-estate.
But Im a car guy and love my Mustang, so I threw a couple of hundred bucks in and bought some more Ford Stock.
I think it was a good buy at $4.25, even if it drops lower.
Im still holding the Ford Stock I bought in 2008 for $3 a share.
I dont plan to get rich off it, it just keeps me interested.
 
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my advisor told me months before this happened that many of the big guys went 40% liquid; i did the same. have did some buying and writing weekly calls but a bottom is not expected for at least 3 more weeks. the volatility spreads are really wide in the options market: a good time to cover yourself if buying
 

Varmint

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There are no underlying financial problems here like there was in 2008/2009.

Screen_shot_2012-01-18_at_5.28.23_PM.png
 

Varmint

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prices for what? Stocks used to be valued based on dividents. Now they are valued based on them costing more next week. It's pure speculation.

This is like paying millions of dollars for a cow. A cow can only produce so much milk. People are buying cows not for the milk, they are buying thinking that someone would buy that cow for even more money tomorrow. That's not even a bubble, it's pure speculation.

Best post in this thread.

Of course I haven't read the whole thread.
 

Mark from MA

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There will be a double dip, or a head fake up. Then drop at earnings probably.

Just like 2008 Im looking at the Dow at 15000 or half of its value when I get in. That may be a little late. I might start to dabble.

Airline stocks.....you'll have to watch it with them though. Some of them could be bought out by other airlines or plain go belly up.

Boeing...

Casino's

Anything not running now or lost business is getting hammered.
 
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