Market in the toilet who’s buying?

Varmint

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You bought AAL waaay too high. Just a few days ago it was close to $10. You bought at the peak.

If you are planning on buying more, dont buy for over $11, it will come back down.
You don't want to see my gold miner portfolio. Just like 2008, they have to suffer an East Baltimore-style beat down before they can go ballistic.
 
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You don't want to see my gold miner portfolio. Just like 2008, they have to suffer an East Baltimore-style beat down before they can go ballistic.
I hear that. But with this market, there is no reason for desperate buying when they go up a few dollars.

Every week AAL and the rest of the airlines keep announcing more flight cuts and they announce them a few months out, they are expecting horrible demand well into May/June. The only good news airlines had is that the gov will have cheap loans available and some cash to pay employees. Other countries keep extending their quarantines into May/June as well.
 

Varmint

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I hear that. But with this market, there is no reason for desperate buying when they go up a few dollars.

Every week AAL and the rest of the airlines keep announcing more flight cuts and they announce them a few months out, they are expecting horrible demand well into May/June. The only good news airlines had is that the gov will have cheap loans available and some cash to pay employees. Other countries keep extending their quarantines into May/June as well.
absolutely, I'm buying gold miners on dips (more like crashes than dips), not touching airlines, cruise ships etc. those may never go back to last years levels.
 

looser38

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About 15 yrs ago, a family friend was doing some work for a local contractor. Was sent to this house. "We installed this toilet yesterday. He hates it. Here's the new one. Put it in and junk the old one."

Bill knocks on customer door. Door opens. "Hi. I'm Yoyo Ma!" "Hi, I'm Bill to replace your toilet."

Bill figured the toilet was a day old. Maybe one dump old. His son was gutting his house. So he kept said Yoyo toilet and his son had it in his house. Not sure if it made the house more valuable. But a collectors-item (no paperwork - Rick would have to pass on an offer) toilet market.


PS - and LITERALLY, that's how Yoyo Ma answered his door. Door opens. "Hi, I'm Yoyo Ma!" LOL. Would you answer your door that way????
No, but my name is not Yoyo Ma! [rofl]
 

Dennis in MA

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And what's the value of a stock when the company goes bankrupt?

this bounce is the chance to sell stocks of companies that will go bankrupt.
When I was a boy. (Sigh, when I was a boy. . . ), I bought 200 shares of LTV Steel after it declared bankruptcy. It sat at $1.50 a share for about 2 years. I sat and waited. Then it went from $1.50 to $4 or so. I was so smart. So I held on hoping for $5 or $8 or $10. For a grossly overextended steel conglomerate. (LTV is famous for one reason: It was instrumental in the development of some of the ERISA language. B/c LTV execs basically raided the pension plan to pay for the ongoing operations. Today, that's an arrest able and jailable offense.)

Anyhow, it went from $4 to $1.50 to zero.

I was probably 14 or so. Good lesson for me to learn.
 

Varmint

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When I was a boy. (Sigh, when I was a boy. . . ), I bought 200 shares of LTV Steel after it declared bankruptcy. It sat at $1.50 a share for about 2 years. I sat and waited. Then it went from $1.50 to $4 or so. I was so smart. So I held on hoping for $5 or $8 or $10. For a grossly overextended steel conglomerate. (LTV is famous for one reason: It was instrumental in the development of some of the ERISA language. B/c LTV execs basically raided the pension plan to pay for the ongoing operations. Today, that's an arrest able and jailable offense.)

Anyhow, it went from $4 to $1.50 to zero.

I was probably 14 or so. Good lesson for me to learn.
I wish a couple of my stocks would go to zero so I can get rid of them without the $7 fee.
 

Dennis in MA

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LOL

I actually learned several lessons for about $320.

1. Don't buy something you don't understand.

2. Don't buy on speculation.

3. If you get a big profit, take at least some of it. (I could have sold half of it for more than I had in and rode the rest. As a worst case.)

4. If you lose interest - SELL. Don't own something you won't watch.

5. Grown-ups suck.

I was 12 when I started. The true story is that my uncle went halves with me. He put up $150, I put up $150 plus the $20 commission.

He drops off the $ one day when I'm at school. My mother just tossed it on my bureau. Didn't tell me. I cleaned my room the next day. It was a crumpled envelope. It just went into the trash. Days later, Mom tells me Steve dropped off the $.

"Where is it?"

"It's on your bureau."

Well, it was gone. I tell Mom. "Well, you should have saved it." Call Steve hoping it was a check. Nope. 3 $50's. So I was in $300 deep on a $150 investment.

But what I learned is how not be be a total tool of an adult. Mom just didn't care and didn't feel she had any responsibility in it. Neither did Rumpled Envelope Steve.

As a parent today, I can't imagine letting my kid swing for what amounted to 20-30 weeks of allowance. Sure, it taught me a GREAT lesson and made me a better parent, but that was never their goal. Their goal was to NOT have to spend $150 (or ANYTHING) on the plenty-of-blame-to-go-around mistake.
 

Supermoto

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absolutely, I'm buying gold miners on dips (more like crashes than dips), not touching airlines, cruise ships etc. those may never go back to last years levels.
But they will go back to 2014 levels. I wouldn't expect much to go back to the highs we have seen before the crash.
 

Varmint

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But they will go back to 2014 levels. I wouldn't expect much to go back to the highs we have seen before the crash.
I'm not sure what the bailouts will do to stocks like airlines exactly.

The market is behaving this week as if this will be a V bottom. Anything's possible with the new Fed math.
 

Freddy Q

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And silver is selling for almost double spot!
Why is that?? Silver (was) at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime two weeks ago. Yet at Apmex (and other places) it was still going for similar prices as it was earlier in the year when spot was $5/oz (33%) more!!?
 
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bren42970

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What do you guys think of AOBC short term (3 months) with all the panic buying? Currently at about $7.80
I’m no pro but the election is coming up. Look at what’s going on now for sales and what AOBC was trading at 4 years ago. I’m in on AOBC right now... holding until November
 

Varmint

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Why is that?? Silver (was) at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime two weeks ago. Yet at Apmex (and other places) it was still going for similar prices as it was earlier in the year when spot was $5/oz (33%) more!!?
There are really 3 prices for silver
1. Spot price - price of silver in large bar form (1000 oz) on the Comex
2. Futures price - price for delivery of silver at a later date - it's usually very close to the spot price, but can diverge in extreme times, like now
3. Price you see at Apmex - this is the price of small retail coins and bars - this can vary wildly due to supply and demand

So right now 3 is very high because retailers all sold out, and mints are closed and deliveries not happening.
1 and 2 are very low because silver is an industrial metal and all industrial commodities are in the toilet. Since the mints are closed, there's no demand from the retail side either.
 

Freddy Q

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Thanks for that explanation ^

I have several sleeves of American Eagles that I bought the last time silver was around $14/oz, was looking into buying a few more but with the demand so high - and the supply so low right now - the low spot price means jack squat. Although even at $18/oz I still think there is plenty of room to make money especially if there is a recession/depression.
 

Varmint

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Thanks for that explanation ^

I have several sleeves of American Eagles that I bought the last time silver was around $14/oz, was looking into buying a few more but with the demand so high - and the supply so low right now - the low spot price means jack squat. Although even at $18/oz I still think there is plenty of room to make money especially if there is a recession/depression.
yeah it's tough cause prices won't come down til the mints reopen, and we'll see where silver spot price is by then. It could be pretty high if gold shoots up past $1700.
 

andrew1220

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JJ4's Triple P: Pandemic Purchase Portfolio


View attachment 343134

So far ZM was a good purchase - my first one of the Pandemic on March 13th. Airlines last week (March 25th) may turn out to be a mistake. The fundamentals on Berkshire Hathaway (March 27th) seem solid and I have a lot of other long term shares. Considering DIS as a possible takeover target.


Other stocks I'm long term on: AMD, BAC, SEDG, AOBC, TSLA
Nice.

Anyone think Microsoft or Apple is a decent buy now?...
 

JJ4

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I wish a couple of my stocks would go to zero so I can get rid of them without the $7 fee.
Check the fine print on the fee schedule. I once had a similar situation back when my fees were $15. I askes to jusr dump it. Turned out low value sales were charged a percentage and I could sell it and still get a few bucks back. Try an order preview and see what it quotes.

I think Schwab is now free trades also?
 

smokey-seven

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And silver is selling for almost double spot!
Why is that?? Silver (was) at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime two weeks ago. Yet at Apmex (and other places) it was still going for similar prices as it was earlier in the year when spot was $5/oz (33%) more!!?
Silver Eagles are not double spot, they are 33-35% above spot. The uncirc SE's are available for $22.++ to $23.++ a coin, retail. Now pay shipping and insurance and depending on what State you live in, sales tax on top of that.

I don't believe that silver was the lowest in your lifetime unless you were born after 1989. I was buying @ 8.++/oz.

The simple reason that the price of Silver Eagles is where it is, ($22.++) per coin is for 3 reasons.

#1 Nobody is selling SE's for less. If you own them, you are holding them. Why sell when you can't replace them for more?
#2 Nobody is MAKING silver coins at this point.
#3 The mines are shutting down. They blame the virus, but why produce @ expense when you KNOW the price will come back?

US Mint and the Canadian are shut because they:
A. Cannot buy silver and
B. They are blaming the lack of smelting product
C. and the virus for the shutdown.

All high grade (MS70) coins are out of stock at the retailers. I laugh at that. even I have some, but am not letting it go.


.
 
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I’m no pro but the election is coming up. Look at what’s going on now for sales and what AOBC was trading at 4 years ago. I’m in on AOBC right now... holding until November
Trump just classified gun stores as essential business. And gun sales are way up, handguns 91.1% year-over-year, long-guns up 73.6%. And yet, it's only modestly climbing. Maybe the Outdoor Brands part of the business doing poorly is holding it back? I bought some after my first post, now have limit order to sell at $9.25. I'm buying more if it goes under $8.00 again.
 

headednorth

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75% of AOBC's shares are held by institutions. A lot of them were/are dumping EVERYTHING to meet margin calls and client redemptions. Theres a lot of stuff that should be going up but it aint. I know I sound like a broken record at this point but think of the business that places like WMT, CVS, COST, AMZN, WBA, KR, GIS, CLX, etc must be doing right now. They literally have to adjust their hours because they are selling so much stuff so quickly that they cant keep the shelves stocked. But...none of them are really going anywhere.
 

andrew1220

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both remain overvalued especially aapl
investors are in love w their balance sheet
i anticipate their revenues are going to toilet and share price will be back under $200
i sold my entire aapl position at $330 and glad I did
Good to know. I just figured Apple might be worthwhile since no one will ever stop buying iPhones etc even during a recession. Their sales in 2008-2009 were quite good.

But I’ll be cautious of Apple for the time being. Maybe wait for it to drop more.
 

SKumar

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Apple has been ridiculously overvalued since Steve Jobs was out. No innovation since the iPad. They're just betting on the legacy fanbase at this point. Once newcomers threaten their territory, Apple is doneski.
 

Varmint

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Good to know. I just figured Apple might be worthwhile since no one will ever stop buying iPhones etc even during a recession. Their sales in 2008-2009 were quite good.

But I’ll be cautious of Apple for the time being. Maybe wait for it to drop more.
It's doubtful anything has bottomed yet. When the S&P500 goes to 2070 or so, buy your favorites. That may not be the bottom but should be a good price for the best companies.
 

Varmint

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Apple has been ridiculously overvalued since Steve Jobs was out. No innovation since the iPad. They're just betting on the legacy fanbase at this point. Once newcomers threaten their territory, Apple is doneski.
Apple is stuck in a rut, bigger phones, better cameras, bigger screens. But companies with as much cash as they have can goggle up future innovators especially in a market crash. Don't count them out.
 

Varmint

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Keep in mind that the FAANG stocks are part of nearly every stock fund, even ones you wouldn't think should contain large cap tech.

so when panic sets in, they will get sold off big time by fund outflows.
 

headednorth

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*Im a financial nobody. Dont do anything because of what I say...

Was going to say Apple has a ton of cash so dont see them going down the drain any time soon. I think we're in a new bear market and especially in the beginning stages, everything gets sold, good or bad.

Im going to keep an eye out for companies that Im interested in whose share price starts going down less compared to the broad market. Then starts going sideways while the market grinds lower. Finally theyll start creeping up while the market continues to drift lower or bounce around sideways. At this point all your friends in work have sold out of their accounts and have stopped talking about the stock market other than to bad mouth it. Could be a year or two or three from where we are today. Im planning on nibbling on good companies when over a period of weeks or months theyve been doing better than the broad market.
 

Varmint

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*Im a financial nobody. Dont do anything because of what I say...

Was going to say Apple has a ton of cash so dont see them going down the drain any time soon. I think we're in a new bear market and especially in the beginning stages, everything gets sold, good or bad.

Im going to keep an eye out for companies that Im interested in whose share price starts going down less compared to the broad market. Then starts going sideways while the market grinds lower. Finally theyll start creeping up while the market continues to drift lower or bounce around sideways. At this point all your friends in work have sold out of their accounts and have stopped talking about the stock market other than to bad mouth it. Could be a year or two or three from where we are today. Im planning on nibbling on good companies when over a period of weeks or months theyve been doing better than the broad market.
do you think people have really sold? Just anecdotal but seems like most are still Bullish on the stock market. My wife is itching to buy.
 

headednorth

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do you think people have really sold? Just anecdotal but seems like most are still Bullish on the stock market. My wife is itching to buy.
Hell no. A guy I know in work who has NEVER invested just bought his first stock maybe 3 weeks ago. What Im saying in my other post is when the time comes to buy, guys like that will have already sold. If Im right about this being a bear market we're in, that might not be for years.

All the blue collar/casual investors I know are either bullish, say theyre in it for the long term and dont care (for now), or have stopped looking at their accounts. When they cant stand the pain anymore or feel theres a chance of everything going to 0, theyll dump and we'll be close to a bottom. Not anywhere near that now imo.
 
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