Market in the toilet who’s buying?

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
14,198
Likes
6,207
Location
North Shore, MA
No gamble. Airlines are WAY undervalued. Im sorry, but Southwest not 33% less valuable.
Why not just buy the S&P500? Similar upside and much less risky. What if this virus changes the way airlines have to operate? No longer pack people in like sardines? No longer serve food? Governments (not just US but Europe) could step in with a 1000 more pages of regulations? What if people travel less for years if the virus lingers?

So many risks for a stock that's only 33% off an all-time high in a massive bubble market.
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
14,198
Likes
6,207
Location
North Shore, MA
About 15 yrs ago, a family friend was doing some work for a local contractor. Was sent to this house. "We installed this toilet yesterday. He hates it. Here's the new one. Put it in and junk the old one."

Bill knocks on customer door. Door opens. "Hi. I'm Yoyo Ma!" "Hi, I'm Bill to replace your toilet."

Bill figured the toilet was a day old. Maybe one dump old. His son was gutting his house. So he kept said Yoyo toilet and his son had it in his house. Not sure if it made the house more valuable. But a collectors-item (no paperwork - Rick would have to pass on an offer) toilet market.


PS - and LITERALLY, that's how Yoyo Ma answered his door. Door opens. "Hi, I'm Yoyo Ma!" LOL. Would you answer your door that way????
Does he hear violins when he poops?
 

PaulR

NES Member
Rating - 100%
5   0   0
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
7,768
Likes
3,658
Location
Western MASS
About 15 yrs ago, a family friend was doing some work for a local contractor. Was sent to this house. "We installed this toilet yesterday. He hates it. Here's the new one. Put it in and junk the old one."

Bill knocks on customer door. Door opens. "Hi. I'm Yoyo Ma!" "Hi, I'm Bill to replace your toilet."

Bill figured the toilet was a day old. Maybe one dump old. His son was gutting his house. So he kept said Yoyo toilet and his son had it in his house. Not sure if it made the house more valuable. But a collectors-item (no paperwork - Rick would have to pass on an offer) toilet market.


PS - and LITERALLY, that's how Yoyo Ma answered his door. Door opens. "Hi, I'm Yoyo Ma!" LOL. Would you answer your door that way????
I've seen him at Tanglewood, the guy is truly awesome.
 

Mark from MA

NES Member
Rating - 100%
47   0   0
Joined
Jun 4, 2008
Messages
5,372
Likes
2,125
The last three days is the head fake up.

Not buying right now.

Market is flying and on the same page unemployed numbers are record.
Yeah.....not buying.
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
14,198
Likes
6,207
Location
North Shore, MA
Seems extremely overdue for a huge bear market rally, no? If it goes down every day without the occasional 5-10% snapback, it'll become obvious to people it's a bear market. Bear markets always fool people into thinking it's bottomed. I'd expect a rally to S&P500 2700 soon.

My prediction is we drop to 2130 or more likely 2070 then rally to 2350 or even 2700.

Maybe I'm biased - I want to see capitulation in gold mining stocks and that would probably happen if we drop to 2070 on the S&P.
I predicted a snapback rally on Sunday, and sticking with my 2700 call (strong resistance and the 20% bear market line in the sand). So another 3% up and then it's back to blood in the streets.
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
14,198
Likes
6,207
Location
North Shore, MA
I bought some GDX today based on 1) QE infinity 2) huge physical PM demand, and 3) cheap energy making mining costs low.
Yes! I've been pushing GDX and GDXJ til I'm blue in the face. Just keep in mind it looks like it may be topping at 26 resistance. If it retests $16, back up the truck.

that probably won't happen unless we have another stock market meltdown like last week.
 

Spanz

NES Member
Rating - 100%
1   0   0
Joined
Feb 25, 2009
Messages
33,097
Likes
19,821
I have def changed the way i reacting. Usually i buy and hold. Now i buy, and as soon as a particular stock is up...i am looking for reasons to sell, to lock in the profit before another 2000 point down day hits. I am trying to NOT be greedy.

the time to buy-and-hold may come back someday...just not THIS month.
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
14,198
Likes
6,207
Location
North Shore, MA
I have def changed the way i reacting. Usually i buy and hold. Now i buy, and as soon as a particular stock is up...i am looking for reasons to sell, to lock in the profit before another 2000 point down day hits. I am trying to NOT be greedy.

the time to buy-and-hold may come back someday...just not THIS month.
stock experts all say you have to take profits, not to buy and hold. That's just what Wall St. tells the sheep. It only works if the Fed is controlling markets, and they seem to be losing control.
 

Dennis in MA

NES Member
Rating - 100%
25   0   0
Joined
Feb 12, 2007
Messages
19,118
Likes
10,318
You know what I was thinking about this morning?

Based on the buyers patterns at local stores in the last 2 weeks, if this event happened 8 years ago, both Hostess and N/E Candy Co would still be in business.

(Did I mention last month I ate my last Clark bar? Wish they'd still make Squirrel Nut Zippers. Hell, I wish they'd make CHOCOLATE SNZ's.)
 

boiler_eng

NES Member
Rating - 0%
0   0   0
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
3,324
Likes
1,030
Location
Haverhill, MA
I have def changed the way i reacting. Usually i buy and hold. Now i buy, and as soon as a particular stock is up...i am looking for reasons to sell, to lock in the profit before another 2000 point down day hits. I am trying to NOT be greedy.

the time to buy-and-hold may come back someday...just not THIS month.
I bought a bunch of preferred shares end of last week and on Monday. Though if I had known how much and how quickly they would bounce back I could have made a number of people very wealthy, just was a bit lucky.

In all logic I should be selling because they are almost all up 20-50%, but I am holding because they have spelled out and cumulative dividends. So I view I am wagering on whether the company will make it out alive, if so I will get my money along with the shares going back to all floating about $25/share. (Bought the shares at between 13 and 22/share. The 22 is the outlier as I bought yesterday because made some trades because I was feeling a peak around the corner).

Am up 20% overall at the moment (for investments between 1st week of March and now), though I am more just working on planning for the next round once things dip further and further.
 

mav

NES Member
Rating - 100%
16   0   0
Joined
Feb 8, 2013
Messages
1,391
Likes
485
Location
Southeastern Mass
Let's talk market structure. First, the majority of new money that comes into the market comes in from 401K's, IRA's, Pension contributions, etc. Those contributions are generally buyers, so there is always some money looking to buy, even in a bear market/market correction. Second, understand that market makers provide liquidity and are generally on the other side of most trades (for every seller, there is a buyer). When you sell, you are likely selling to an MM who then looks to unload what they bought to someone else, earning a small profit on the purchase and the sale ala the bid/ask spread. What does this mean in reality? In a fast moving market, up or down, MM's can change the bid/ask spread very quickly based on market conditions, thus driving the price up or down based on what a MM sees for orders in the order book and where the volume is. Last, short sellers need to re-purchase equities to close out their positions. The big swinging donks in this market were short (see the many articles on Bill Ackman, who was on national TV spreading fear while his book was short). Many of these big rallies are those same short sellers closing out their positions and booking profits... by repurchasing the equities they borrowed and sold short.

Why did I post this? Because I'm sure there are many who don't understand why the market rallied... or why bear market rallies generally fade and corrections continue. Some of it is market psychology, some of it is market structure. The most important thing is understanding your risk tolerance and timeline for the money being traded/invested. Sure, the US Senate just passed the biggest bailout in history. Did that fix the systemic problems of too much debt? Did that fix the pandemic? Did it fix unemployment? Think about this: we're potentially looking at 30% unemployment during a pandemic when most workers have employer-provided health insurance and can't afford COBRA. Personally, I think we have more downside and would look to be short on these rallies in the short term, but DCA into well know companies with strong balance sheets for the long term. My $.02.
 

JJ4

NES Member
Rating - 100%
7   0   0
Joined
Jan 15, 2013
Messages
2,965
Likes
1,467
Location
South Central MA
JJ4's Triple P: Pandemic Purchase Portfolio


1585585500143.png

So far ZM was a good purchase - my first one of the Pandemic on March 13th. Airlines last week (March 25th) may turn out to be a mistake. The fundamentals on Berkshire Hathaway (March 27th) seem solid and I have a lot of other long term shares. Considering DIS as a possible takeover target.


Other stocks I'm long term on: AMD, BAC, SEDG, AOBC, TSLA
 

headednorth

NES Member
Rating - 100%
17   0   0
Joined
Apr 9, 2012
Messages
12,298
Likes
10,728
Dont want to jinx myself but VSTO has been my big winner. Caught the bottom just right. If I was smart I would have shorted every airline and cruise line and then went and took a nap, lol.

Surprised at a lot of names that dont seem to want to go anywhere. CLX, WBA, CVS, COST, KR, GIS. I know theyre traditionally defensive names but these companies are selling so much stuff they have to adjust their hours just to keep product on the shelves.
 

kerryman71

NES Member
Rating - 100%
3   0   0
Joined
Apr 6, 2018
Messages
172
Likes
346
Location
Central Massachusetts
Dont want to jinx myself but VSTO has been my big winner. Caught the bottom just right. If I was smart I would have shorted every airline and cruise line and then went and took a nap, lol.

Surprised at a lot of names that dont seem to want to go anywhere. CLX, WBA, CVS, COST, KR, GIS. I know theyre traditionally defensive names but these companies are selling so much stuff they have to adjust their hours just to keep product on the shelves.
Agree on VSTO. With the ammo shortage going on and then a presidential election this year, I figured it was a good time to buy. Bought it for my son at around $7 per share.
 
Rating - 100%
7   0   0
Joined
Sep 18, 2010
Messages
22,420
Likes
13,614
Location
Suckachusetts
JJ4's Triple P: Pandemic Purchase Portfolio


View attachment 343134

So far ZM was a good purchase - my first one of the Pandemic on March 13th. Airlines last week (March 25th) may turn out to be a mistake. The fundamentals on Berkshire Hathaway (March 27th) seem solid and I have a lot of other long term shares. Considering DIS as a possible takeover target.


Other stocks I'm long term on: AMD, BAC, SEDG, AOBC, TSLA
You bought AAL waaay too high. Just a few days ago it was close to $10. You bought at the peak.

If you are planning on buying more, dont buy for over $11, it will come back down.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JJ4
Top Bottom