Long term grid down thoughts

[coastie]

Below is something that I posted on another forum as part of a long term grid down scenario. These are some random thoughts of mine and I figured I would post them here to start some discussion particularly with the Remnants movie coming out and books like One Second After.

You can survive the first 6-10 months on your own but you will very quickly need a community to survive the long term. The farmer cant do his job if he is constantly worried about getting shot while in his fields. The guy doing security isn’t going to be effective if he is worried about his kids starving. Etc Etc Etc. I envision a small fairly tightly knit community. I also see a slow return to some sort of normalcy. Power would eventually return albeit in limited form as would some sort of central govt.

I see several years worth of IC engine use before they are completely out of the picture provided the fuel is rationed. Here in the Northeast most homes are heated with oil ie diesel. If that is rationed well you can run ag equipment for several years allowing a slow conversion to animal power. If you survived the first winter in the Northeast more than likely you have some sort of wood heat so fuel for chainsaws would also be good to ration.

Lighting and electricity would very much be an individual thing. Some might have a solar panel and battery, others a stash of kero and oil lamps. For some it might be a quick return to rushlights, candles and fat lamps.

Water, again here in the Northeast we are blessed with a lot of water sources. I have a well and about 200 gal storage capacity. I could run my generator about once every 3 weeks to fill the storage and supply our basic water needs. I have a well bucket in the event the generator goes kaput or I run out of fuel. I have some gutter that I can install to provide rain catchment. There is a yr rd stream and 3 ponds within about 200 yds of the house. The key is being able to filter and purify the water. I see waterborne diseases making a big comeback.

Sanitation, we will see a return to outhouses. I think having the knowledge to properly site and use one will be very important. Also having the knowledge to make things like lye and soap.

Food, this is the one that I see as the most difficult for long term survival. All the game and most animals will be consumed in the early stages of any grid down scenario. Farmers and communities will have to protect and defend their animals very well. The key to survival is going to be good seed and lots of it. Seed for grains, beans, root crops and squashes are particularly important. I don’t think most people have any idea how much seed is needed to keep a family alive never mind a community. Those gardens in a can are a gimmick at best when it comes to growing enough food for a year. Most farms don’t hold over seed and use GMO now. We will have the equipment to farm and worst case could hand work enough land for people to survive but if we don’t have anything to plant we are done.

Items like clothes and shoes, I think most people have enough to last several years and there will be a large amount left over from the folks that don’t make it so I don’t worry about that too much. Same with most other items. We are fortunate that unlike our ancestors we have lots of stuff.

Medically I think we will take a big step back. Hopefully the community will have health care workers in it and they will be very important. Things like herbal remedies will return and people will die from previously easily treatable things. It is unfortunate but the reality. Individuals can enhance their odds by acquiring meds, and other health care needs now. You might not necessarily know how to use them but if you can provide them to a doctor or nurse treating you or your family it might save your life.

 

[Rancho]

well on sanitation i do have one little thing to offer. Solar composting outhouse.
I've seen them and worked on building them in the white mountains. it's a great way to compost human waste and actually be able to use it for fertilizer even though human waste is not a good fertilizer, the system uses organic materials mixed with the waste.

 

[OPM]

We are way spoiled. Visit less developed countries and what we call “survival” is everyday life. Surviving is not all that difficult, billions do it daily – living well is another story. Enjoying woodstove and chainsaw is a luxury. You can live without heat and you most certainly can get lumber without power tools.

If you want to know what to expect, just travel to any third world country. We will deal with similar situation as they do now – higher crime, higher disease, less medical care, lots of daily toils.

One of the main determining factors as to what we would experience is the cause for the grid failure. A worldwide failure is much harsher situation than just US. US and Canada is much harder than just Northeast. Outage due to war is harsher than one without war. Etc., etc.

 

[Another_David]

Important: Food, potable water, shelter, and security

Luxury: indoor plumbing, central heat, electricity are all "recent" inventions. Most lighting as we know it is also a luxury.

About 10 yrs ago the heat died in my house on the coldest day of the year (circulation pump). It was sub zero F temperatures and it was 48 hrs before it was back on. I turned on the faucets to a trickle so the pipes wouldn't freeze and had to break up some ice dams in the kitchen sink a few times but the pipes never froze. I put on a hat and went to bed with three blankets then woke up too hot and took of a layer.

 

[Kevin_NH]

You can survive the first 6-10 months on your own but you will very quickly need a community to survive the long term.

Realistically, you need a group of about 6 people to be sure of surviving that long, and a community of at least two dozen able-bodied adults to go a year or longer.

 

[Climbnsink]

F'it, if the grid goes down that long I'll just mooch off the Indians same as the Pilgrims did.

 

[In God We Trust]

I lived on an unisulated enclosed porch that was about 300 yards from the ocean for the better part of a winter back in my younger days. I was very cold at night even with a mummy bag. I can't imagine having no escape from cold like that for a whole winter. I was only there to sleep. Screw that! I think of a wood stove as a MUST in the northeast.

 

[MACGYVR]

The Native Americans lived off the grid for thousands of years. It is not rocket science. Forget what you have been told by "survival experts" and just live. Stay warm, find food, make shelter. Hang out. Its only in the last 100 years people have forgotten the basics.

 

[coastie]

The Native Americans lived off the grid for thousands of years. It is not rocket science. Forget what you have been told by "survival experts" and just live. Stay warm, find food, make shelter. Hang out. Its only in the last 100 years people have forgotten the basics.

The Native Americans had generations of tribal knowledge and skills to build on. They had crop varieties that had been developed specifically for their areas over generations. They learned this stuff from a very young age. And they busted their asses to stay alive. I dont imagine there was much time to "hang out".

How many people here today have ever made a loaf of bread with store bought materials? Now, how many have ever done it with grain they raised and ground? Hell, how many folks today make meals from scratch? How many people know which wood is the best to burn? People have forgotten the basics but it is now several generations away for many people.

 

[MisterHappy]

The real problem that I see is not the ability of a "prepped" group to survive, but of the wants and needs of the non-prepped: You have something I don't have....give it to me!

Yes, in the non-developed world, people survive just fine, but that's because everything is at an equilibrium. Remember the movie "The Gods Must be Crazy"? one Cike bottle scewed up a comminity.

Unless you have an absolutely impreganble estate, the "Committee for Fair Disttibution" will take yours and make the others more equal. The old Twilight Zone episode with the bomb shelter and the false alarm comes to mind....

Unless the scenario is 95%+ mortality from the outset, "society" will get there fast.

 

[pgozew]

The real problem that I see is not the ability of a "prepped" group to survive, but of the wants and needs of the non-prepped: You have something I don't have....give it to me!

Unless you have an absolutely impreganble estate, the "Committee for Fair Disttibution" will take yours and make the others more equal. The old Twilight Zone episode with the bomb shelter and the false alarm comes to mind....

Not if you shoot the M***er F***ers first!!!

 

[Big Daddy 45acp]

I plan on opening a Soylent Green franchise.

 

[P-14]

I plan on opening a Soylent Green franchise.

Tiny, can I help?

 

[Big Daddy 45acp]

Tiny, can I help?

The more the merrier! Just don't push me into the vat!

 

[GM-GUY]

Anyone who lives in the 'country' can get by. Canning will become essential, just like our parents and grandparents used to do. Some farm critters (chickens, pigs, cows) will become the norm again.

The real danger is those who rely on handouts now, when the checks stop - it gets ugly (3 days is my guess, maybe a week if lucky).

It will be up to YOU to protect what you have from EVERYONE (included 'The Authorities') - a life boat can hold only so many, you can't save everyone.

 

[Big Daddy 45acp]

It will be up to YOU to protect what you have from EVERYONE (included 'The Authorities') - a life boat can hold only so many, you can't save everyone.

Which leads up to my Soylent Green business model. I would provide a public service (clean up and body removal) in addition to providing food to the community at a lower price point!

 

[Another_David]

I lived on an unisulated enclosed porch that was about 300 yards from the ocean for the better part of a winter back in my younger days. I was very cold at night even with a mummy bag. I can't imagine having no escape from cold like that for a whole winter. I was only there to sleep. Screw that! I think of a wood stove as a MUST in the northeast.

A wood stove or fireplace would be ideal for boiling water, cooking, light, and heat. I was just trying to point out that keeping a "modern home heating system" running that relies on electricity and refined fossil fuels long term is not likely sustainable and a huge luxury because heating the whole house to 55+ F is a modern convenience.

Also consider that "in the good ole days" houses and rooms were much smaller and it was common for people, particularly kids and the elderly, to share rooms or even beds. That keeps you warm at night!

 

[drumenigma]

The real danger is those who rely on handouts now, when the checks stop - it gets ugly (3 days is my guess, maybe a week if lucky).

It will be up to YOU to protect what you have from EVERYONE (included 'The Authorities') - a life boat can hold only so many, you can't save everyone.

Those are the people that I would be worried about. I'm sure they'd come knocking on doors looking for handouts. They'd get the muzzle treatment and get told to F-off. I could see myself partnered with some other folks sticking it out long term. I've been getting in to canning, dehydrating, vacuum sealing and other long term solutions lately. I want to expand the garden next year too to increase yields and maybe get a better variety. Also when I purchase tools and other things I typically go for the ones that don't need fuel or electricity to run on in the event I don't have access to it.

 

[GM-GUY]

That reminds me,

For the Sake of Pete.....

Buy the best shovel, axe, sledgehammer, and splitting wedges you can find; other stuff as required. Hang the stuff on a wall if you don't use it - it will never go bad and be worth it's weight in gold WHEN SHTF.

 

[coastie]

That reminds me,

For the Sake of Pete.....

Buy the best shovel, axe, sledgehammer, and splitting wedges you can find; other stuff as required. Hang the stuff on a wall if you don't use it - it will never go bad and be worth it's weight in gold WHEN SHTF.

I would add a good hoe and iron rake to this list. A lot of times you can pick up good ones relatively cheap at junk shops, yard sales etc.

 

[Rancho]

right on! Having some good old fashioned tools is key..
I grew up on a farm (nickname was farmer in high school) I know how to raise animals (and eat'em) grow a garden, use what I grow to make other foods. grow grains enough to store through the winter.
Learned to tolerate the cold til the stove is on (I suffer well). As a matter of fact my darling wife has finally been convinced it would be a good idea to raise some chickens a pig and get a couple of goats.
I have random skills and specific ones too.
My only worry, like some others, is the unprepared and unskilled looking for the easy way out. I have a small community of four or five people I can trust and team up with, hence my posting a month or so ago about NEW ENGLAND PREPPERS and building that larger community.

 

[MisterHappy]

I agree that the "shoot the f-ers" is the first reaction, but the scenario posted is a long term (involving at least one winter) deal.

The majority of the people have less than one week's food in the house. IIRC, New Youk City has three days' worth were there to be a complete lockdown.

No matter how well you're up-weaponed a determined (read starving) mob of 50 people, at night, woudl severely test your defences.

Not trying to start a flame war, but think about your neighbors, how well they're prepared, and what you'd be willing to do for your family. 'Cause they will too....

If you're out in West Treestump, with a lot of land, and neighbors that are self-reliant, that's one thing. Most of the people are in the 'burbs or the cities, where there is no real stockpile of supplies. Without deliveries, the stores are empty in 2-3 days....then what?

Come winter, when the snow flies, and the temp drops, the smell of wood smoke will be a magnet for all in the area without heat.


I started a poll on how ready people were for Irene, and considering the theoretical level of readiness here, there were a lot of "C" grades (including me). And that was summer! If you've never heated with wood, consider this: I have a nice, efficient stove, that's to keep part of my house warm, and I still go though 3-4 cords. If a fireplace is your plan, the Minister's Allotment in my town ( in the 1600s) was 45 (forty-five) cords per year.

My point is that regardless of how personally ( and famillially) ready you are, most are not. and will want what you have, and they don't. THIS is a consideration that I think is often overlooked in a Prepping plan.

 

[hminsky]

Our furnace broke during coldest February two years ago. We have two wood stoves and were able to heat the house for a couple of days on just wood. Fetching wood and cleaning the ashes got pretty old pretty fast, but it was a good backup. We went through a cord pretty fast.

 

[GM-GUY]

You won't be able to survive long term without some serious backup - meaning at least 3 families, and that would be brutal. I'm hoping that if such a thing happens I can get some other like minded folks in my neighborhood on board and not "we better wait to see what happens".

I have 1 set of in-laws and a brother/sister-in-law with a couple kids and a friend X-Army with a wife and 2 kids all with standing invites to my place. I keep prodding them to get more food on hand and to preposition stuff here (I have a nice dry cool basement - so much for finishing it....) - maybe someday.

I also buy enough stuff to outfit our group as best as I can, wish I could do more - but only so many $$$$ - must win lottery. I save old jackets (just old, not worn out) old clothes and shoes (in the attic) - you never know.

 

[jmjkd]

I think every thing will be moment by moment. Throw the playbook out the window. It will be a fight every day. You will be on guard every moment. People will take from you and you will take from others. You will try to smile but you will no it’s fake. People will become even more insensitive then one would ever imagine. Once you shoot…they shoot back and visa versa.




The Amish will not miss a beat I their world.



.

 

[Climbnsink]

Anarchy is not the lack of gov't anarchy is the lack of culture. Live somewhere where you agree with the culture and you will be able to work with your community to thrive. Going it alone ain't gonna work. Remember first one to get running hot water post apocalypse wins.

 

[Big Daddy 45acp]

Anarchy is not the lack of gov't anarchy is the lack of culture. Live somewhere where you agree with the culture and you will be able to work with your community to thrive. Going it alone ain't gonna work. Remember first one to get running hot water post apocalypse wins.

The first to have cold beer will win in my book!

 

[coastie]

I agree that the "shoot the f-ers" is the first reaction, but the scenario posted is a long term (involving at least one winter) deal.

The majority of the people have less than one week's food in the house. IIRC, New Youk City has three days' worth were there to be a complete lockdown.

No matter how well you're up-weaponed a determined (read starving) mob of 50 people, at night, woudl severely test your defences.

Not trying to start a flame war, but think about your neighbors, how well they're prepared, and what you'd be willing to do for your family. 'Cause they will too....

If you're out in West Treestump, with a lot of land, and neighbors that are self-reliant, that's one thing. Most of the people are in the 'burbs or the cities, where there is no real stockpile of supplies. Without deliveries, the stores are empty in 2-3 days....then what?

Come winter, when the snow flies, and the temp drops, the smell of wood smoke will be a magnet for all in the area without heat.


I started a poll on how ready people were for Irene, and considering the theoretical level of readiness here, there were a lot of "C" grades (including me). And that was summer! If you've never heated with wood, consider this: I have a nice, efficient stove, that's to keep part of my house warm, and I still go though 3-4 cords. If a fireplace is your plan, the Minister's Allotment in my town ( in the 1600s) was 45 (forty-five) cords per year.

My point is that regardless of how personally ( and famillially) ready you are, most are not. and will want what you have, and they don't. THIS is a consideration that I think is often overlooked in a Prepping plan.

I dont worry about gangs from the city or people on the dole. They are a threat but the guy up the street with 2 starving kids and a deer rifle is who I worry about. However, I also think that this is the kind of person that if you can help them can turn into an ally. I keep some stuff preprinted that I can handout to folks near me. It is just basic food, water and sanitation stuff. It covers things like some local available wild foodstuffs, where to find water and how to treat it etc. I also have things like extra woodstoves, well buckets, water filters and tools that I would provide to keep good neighbors around.

One thing I have noticed as new construction goes up around me is that I would say no more than 20% of the houses have real chimneys. Everyone goes to power vents because they are cheaper. Without power in the winter those people have to go somewhere and go quickly or they are done. I think you would see a large evacuation south in a situation like that. THose that stay will at least have an alternate form of heat.

 

[coastie]

I think every thing will be moment by moment. Throw the playbook out the window. It will be a fight every day. You will be on guard every moment. People will take from you and you will take from others. You will try to smile but you will no it’s fake. People will become even more insensitive then one would ever imagine. Once you shoot…they shoot back and visa versa.




The Amish will not miss a beat I their world.



.

The Amish are a lot more reliant on the English world than most people realize. They use electricity, phones, tractors etc now. They are fortunate in that they still do most of their farming with animals and wont have as far to fall. Another issue with them is their passive beliefs. It will make them a target.

 

[jmjkd]

coastie I agree but the Amish are still more self reliant then 90% the people. And yes they will be a target, but everyone will…:-( There will be no trust....from anyone.