Is anyone starting to think all these closings are going a bit too far?

hminsky

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How about the flu, heart disease, auto accidents, diabetes, etc.…
Every one of these things blows away the death toll from this
covid-19 but nobody seems to give a crap?
OMG you're right! Someone tell Dr Fauci and all the other epidemiologists. They need to know this!

Or maybe they already do, because those counts of death rate remain constant, but this thing has exponential spread of infection
and we're only at the start of the curve.

And also watch out, you may get COVID19 multiple times, or at least not be rid of it so easily:

 

Dench

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Talked with my mom over the phone. She and a few of her friends were very sick back in January. Dry cough, fever, wiped out. One of her friends actually had to go to the hospital for a week. They all thought they had a bad flu. She is now convinced she had it in retrospect. I sort of dismissed it at the time but now I am beginning to wonder.
I had Influenza B along with my entire family in december. That was a little rough, not the worst flu I've had but it was lame. I was the last to get it and recover, I was mostly through with it by the 1st week of JAN. Fast forward a few weeks and the family was all sick again, with the kids being basically mostly impervious besides being ultra sleepy, but the spouse had some major lung issues with coughing (which appears to be a hallmark of this turd.) I sorta felt like I was sick but then again, I was sick already the previous month with the flu so I had no baseline for how shitty I should feel as a normal level.

Considering how this thing is stealth level 10,000 and this thing has probably been around in China since November, I highly doubt it was contained as well as we think (even though we dont really think it was contained well). I suspect it might of been in the US as early as DEC/JAN.

I think the kiss of death for us was being in Orlando in mid/late JAN. At a certain giant park that is now closed, follow by an ultra busy international airport. If there is a place that this thing was hanging out from the start, those 2 places are heavy hitters.

I am a little annoyed by the lack of any solid information on this that has any sense of consistency. Add to the fact that our .gov clearly has no idea what to do, and experts clearly have no strong consensus other than prepare for the rapture, it's getting long in the tooth. People are only going to stop their lives for a big bag of question marks for so long.

Right now we are in the white knite phase, which is amazingly bipartisan. I'm doing my part! That shits going to fade fast when people start looking for money and or people want to sell their kids for money and to get rid of them [rofl]

Going to be pretty interesting if it turns out this things been here for a while and general incompetence lead to it not being discovered, tested and no anti body kit being available to even see if this is a thing. At least it would go along with the trend here, general incompetence at all levels.
 

pupchow

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Meanwhile, in Springfield, MA ...

"Mayor Sarno said basketball hoops will be coming down throughout the city, since people aren't heeding their social distancing guidelines. " - WWLP.COM
 
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I live in NH but my family is still in MA. Between easter and many birthdays we had planned to go to MA ro see family almost ever weekend in April.

For me, this shutdown came at a perfect time. Thank you Charlie.
 

hminsky

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This is a little concerning, I don't understand the significance of testing positive after getting over the bad part of
the illness.

The question is 1) what percentage of people still contagious after recovering, and 2) is there some percentage of the population that gets a serious infection again with the same virus again soon after they already had it?

either of those would cause additional problems

 

Bison

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Look at the classic flatten the curve example:


What you will discover is that in Philly, the epidemic lasted about 6 weeks and peaked in 2 weeks. 12,000 people died in 6 weeks and another 4,000 over the next 6 months. This was about 932 per 100,000. The virus overwhelmed the system but was over quickly. People, businesses and schools got back to "normal".

In St. Louis, only about 3,000 died spread over 6 months, but the epidemic and the social distancing lasted months. This was about 536 per 100,000. St. Louis had half the population of Philly.

The social distancing and quarantines likely saved 3,000 lives in St. Louis. I have not been able to find a calcultaion of the economic cost.

Has anyone or the government done a calculation for Covid19? Given the expected low death rate (especially among the under 60), how many lives are likely to be saved versus the economic cost?
 

oldguy47

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Look at the classic flatten the curve example:


What you will discover is that in Philly, the epidemic lasted about 6 weeks and peaked in 2 weeks. 12,000 people died in 6 weeks and another 4,000 over the next 6 months. This was about 932 per 100,000. The virus overwhelmed the system but was over quickly. People, businesses and schools got back to "normal".

In St. Louis, only about 3,000 died spread over 6 months, but the epidemic and the social distancing lasted months. This was about 536 per 100,000. St. Louis had half the population of Philly.

The social distancing and quarantines likely saved 3,000 lives in St. Louis. I have not been able to find a calcultaion of the economic cost.

Has anyone or the government done a calculation for Covid19? Given the expected low death rate (especially among the under 60), how many lives are likely to be saved versus the economic cost?
would you care about this if YOURS was one of the lives to be lost!!
 

Dench

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This is a little concerning, I don't understand the significance of testing positive after getting over the bad part of
the illness.

The question is 1) what percentage of people still contagious after recovering, and 2) is there some percentage of the population that gets a serious infection again with the same virus again soon after they already had it?

either of those would cause additional problems

No one knows. The information on this from experts is retarded.
 
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This this and more this!

Look at NYC. They had minor orders. Now they have 8K+ cases in a population of 8Mil. WHAT???? That's a worse rate than Italy!!!!! (My pet theory is that, like surviving the Bubonic Plague offered some protection from Spanish Flu in 1918, something within the Italian DNA makes them more susceptible to this virus. But I could be flat wrong. We may not know for decades if it is true.)

People can be dumbasses. Time to crank down some of that.

THAT said - cancelling a June event now? Seems premature. Although I've got to reschedule my Disney trip to September and I'm wondering if that is too soon. LOL
Italy also may be defining covid mortality differently.
And of course the usual “we don’t really know how many cases there are”



“...But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.”
 

BigAl23

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Absolutely! BUT, it's the idiots that get sick and go out in public that cause it.

BTW, I put a post up on Bass Boat Central which is Worldwide and asked members there if they knew anyone infected with Corona. Of about 50 responses only one definitive.
Personally I think the media and the Gov't are making this a more dangerous virus than it really is. More people have died from the Flu this year.
 
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The crowd that insists this is just the flu, did you expect everyone to die the 1st day? Do You think the governments are stopping tax payments for nothing? Everything comes down to money, they ran the numbers, the economic fallout from death is worse than if they do nothing.

Of course they want to do nothing, look how they are really having to work for their money now. Usually it's a handful of press conferences a month and off to stealing more of our money. Now every damn day they have do a press conference and pretend they give a f*** about us, its way more work.
 

Bison

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would you care about this if YOURS was one of the lives to be lost!!
I do care. But, how many will die due to the coming great depression? What about WW3 that could spring out of economic collapse?

No one seems to be running down the cost of unintended consequences.

The geniuses after WW2 decided to tie the entire world together economically. Most countries cannot be self sufficient. Perhaps now we will rethink this policy?

BTW, if it is my time, then I am at peace.
 

BigAl23

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The crowd that insists this is just the flu, did you expect everyone to die the 1st day? Do You think the governments are stopping tax payments for nothing? Everything comes down to money, they ran the numbers, the economic fallout from death is worse than if they do nothing.

Of course they want to do nothing, look how they are really having to work for their money now. Usually it's a handful of press conferences a month and off to stealing more of our money. Now every damn day they have do a press conference and pretend they give a f*** about us, its way more work.

Well said
 

hminsky

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If this is what things are going to look like in two weeks, then no, maybe we are not going too far.
 
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I am conflicted about it. I've read about what happened in 1918. It is absolutely horrifying. I mean the length of it back then. How it came in waves. How it mutated and the second wave in the Fall became what we know today in the general public.

On the other hand what we are doing to this economy is equally bad. As of today I do not know people what have gotten the virus personally. However, I do know people that have lost jobs in the past week. This is going to be historically bad for all of us.

So while I wish that I could go out and spend to help my local businesses and the economy overall I do not want to be part of the problem in spreading this virus.
I'd agree with you if this was a Katrina type event, isolated to one geographic area.

This is a world wide event. EVERYONE is shut down. Who will rebuild the fastest will reap the rewards, I believe in the United States. I believe in you, the guy next door, the prostitute on Airline Highway. We will go back to work, there will be huge opportunities for those willing to do it. Who better to lead on the other side than us? We don't do things half assed like the Chinese, we kick ass when we have to.

Sorry, just how I feel.
 
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Talked with my mom over the phone. She and a few of her friends were very sick back in January. Dry cough, fever, wiped out. One of her friends actually had to go to the hospital for a week. They all thought they had a bad flu. She is now convinced she had it in retrospect. I sort of dismissed it at the time but now I am beginning to wonder.
Same timeframe as my mother. Kept saying it was the worse flu she ever had.
 

jpk

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Cuomo literally said the other day "if it saves just one life" it's worth it. POS
He needs to be reminded of THIS

 

jpk

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How about the flu, heart disease, auto accidents, diabetes, etc.…
Every one of these things blows away the death toll from this
covid-19 but nobody seems to give a crap?
I expect a number of folks to lose their minds over this but.....

 

mcb

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We are legitimately blind here... if we have 600 ish cases in the 8 million strong of Greater Boston, with 90%+ of those tested being negative, we can come to one of two conclusions without wide scale testing:

1. Statistically Nobody has it
2. Statistically Everybody has it
 

darrowj

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I'd agree with you if this was a Katrina type event, isolated to one geographic area.

This is a world wide event. EVERYONE is shut down. Who will rebuild the fastest will reap the rewards, I believe in the United States. I believe in you, the guy next door, the prostitute on Airline Highway. We will go back to work, there will be huge opportunities for those willing to do it. Who better to lead on the other side than us? We don't do things half assed like the Chinese, we kick ass when we have to.

Sorry, just how I feel.
Thank you sir... for sharing these thoughts. We will get past this. You are right as well on the United States. If any nation is going to kick ass when this is over it will be us.
 

PennyPincher

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would you care about this if YOURS was one of the lives to be lost!!
and what about all the fallout from collapsing an economy to maybe save a few people? Do you have kids, grandkids, etc? Do you want them burdened 10 times over so that we can MAYBE save less than 1% of the population? What about banning guns? Shouldn't we just ban all guns so that we can save some of those people who get murdered every year? what about the children killed in pools? WOULDN't you care if the life saved had been you or one of your loved ones?!
 

Dench

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I do care. But, how many will die due to the coming great depression? What about WW3 that could spring out of economic collapse?

No one seems to be running down the cost of unintended consequences.

The geniuses after WW2 decided to tie the entire world together economically. Most countries cannot be self sufficient. Perhaps now we will rethink this policy?

BTW, if it is my time, then I am at peace.
This is correct. Is this worth stopping at all costs? The answer is no. And we are currently about 2-3 steps from all costs in an environment where leaders are following each others steps towards that direction.

My grandparents who are all of the vulnerable age demographics have all said that if it's their time, it's their time. They don't expect the generations before them to grind society to a halt to protect people that are towards the end of their life. My grandparents perspective is admirable, in my opinion.
 
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