Gun Violence as an Epidemic - The Contagion Model of Mass Killings

MaverickNH

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Gun Violence as an Epidemic - The Contagion Model of Mass Killings

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If one accepts the analysis showing mass shootings have become more frequent since 2011, one has to ask why? Yes, more guns were Made in the USA after Obama's election, with some predicting a nexus point in ~2015 where the US gun stock exceeded the US population. So more guns = more mass killings? A tempting correlation, indeed.

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Crunching the numbers, the cumulative number of guns manufactured 2011-2015 (most recent data) shows a 45% increase. That is, almost half as many guns were made in 2011-2015 as made 1986-2010. Caveats include the guns were made for US and export, the data are manufacture rather than sale, and include military/police orders.

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It seems fair to say that a gun owner buying another gun doesn't make them a mass killer. Sure, they might have a duck shotgun, a deer rifle, and a target handgun and buy an assault rifle to perpetrate a mass killing, but that doesn't fit the profile we read about. The same background check system, with all its flaws, was in place before/after 2011, and "assault weapons" were deregulated when the AW Ban expired in 2004, so there were was no shortage of all sorts of guns to buy to perpetrate mass killings before/after 2011.

Google Trends shows a lot more "mass killing" web searches since 2011. More mass killing = more media articles and more web searches - seems to make sense. But why the epidemic of mass killings since 2011?

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Some propose a Contagion Model, where a Copy Cat Effect amplifies mass killings over time, based on media intensity & frequency, with 20-30% of incidents attributable..Texas high school shooting prompts talk of 'contagion effect'

This Copy Cat Effect was described in a 2004 book and FBI regularly sends notices out to law enforcement warning of such an issue after an incident https://www.amazon.com/Copycat-Effect-Popular-Tomorrows-Headlines/dp/0743482239

Some propose an Emergency Restraining Protective Order (ERPO) as a solution but it's clearly only part of a solution, even if done right. Why Do Mass Shootings Happen? Here's The Best Explanation | National Review

With what little self-restraint there might have been in journalism gone out the window since the 2016 election cycle started, the notion of "not naming the mass shooter" (just as the media do not name a suicide or rape subject) seems nearly impossible to expect from the media. Increasing gun control/regulation seems to be an obvious action to take but is not an obvious solution to the problem. The recent Texas school killer used his father's shotgun and 38cal revolver - firearms of sorts that would persist in large numbers in the US even with a full assault weapon and semiautomatic firearm ban and civilian seizure.

The solution to epidemics and contagion is often to destroy the vector, prevent conditions where the vector can breed and spread, and immunize against the vector. But mass killings are more like all the viruses that live within us dormant, only to be "activated" by some stress condition. Guns don't activate the disease vector - bullying, failed parenting (or socializing where parents are all but absent), lack of early recognition/treatment and social/news media seem to combine to potentiate mass killings.

More guns laws or get rid of all guns? Both options are fraught with practical consequences.

Background checks fail because of the pervasive failure of checks and balances in our government. The "list" of felons, domestic abusers, adjudicated mentally-ill, etc. is glaringly incomplete because government agencies cannot be made to comply with laws requiring that they report prohibited persons to put in the database. In many cases, they resist reporting "their own" - military and law enforcement protect even their outcasts to protect their agencies. Adjudicating someone mentally ill is very hard and systems and process are poor to treat let alone report such individuals. Congress cannot make laws effectively requiring agencies in Federal/State/Local law enforcement, States, or health facilities to comply. Felons cannot be prosecuted for violating background check requirements (self-incrimination), and can only be charged for possessing guns, with such charges usually dropped to prevent more jail overcrowding.

Get rid of guns? Politically untenable. Compliance with gun bans in NY, NJ, CA, MA is estimated to be 10-15% Put 'em all in jail? It would have to be house arrest for the 40%+ of homes that have guns in the US.

What's the solution?

In the short-term:

1. ERPOs with proper due process. Taking a suicidal/homicidal person's guns is not very protective of anyone, and does not constitute treatment or long-term prevention. If LE comes to the door to take your guns by an ERPO, your court-appointed lawyer should be part of the entourage serving the warrant, with your appointed mental health liaison in tow. Even before your first hearing within 72hr. But then again, we're trusting the government to do the right thing, when they are part of the problem (see Fix NICS below).

2. Anti-bullying, again with proper due process. With Melania Trump taking cyberbullying on as a cause, I know many on the Left will have mixed feelings and may react to disclaim the problem and solution - suck it up and get on with it. "Zero Tolerance" = "Zero Intelligence" - a suspension is punishment, not prevention and treatment.

3. Fix NICS - really fix it, even if to prove it does little to help the mass killer problem. Drive the false positive rate down to near-zero by using all the data on a Form 4473. Laws that punish individuals in government for knowingly and purposefully disregarding their responsibilities are effective, if enforced. Withholding grants punishes communities and taxpayers from getting their own tax dollars back for elected/appointed government workers' misbehavior. I've seen the paperwork in NH for felony charges, abuse, etc - nowhere is there a checkbox for LE/court to acknowledge their responsibility to report to NICS if convicted, adjudicated mentally ill, etc. When a prohibited person gets a gun by negligence or inaction, somebody in the government must lose their job, if not more. "Universal Background Checks"? Add a 10yr sunset clause so we can see if it did other than increasing/reducing harassment of honest, law-abiding gun owners. If not, sunset the whole works.

4. Arm SROs in all schools. Allow teachers willing to carry concealed to do so with training. I'm tired of hearing about heroic actions by unarmed teachers shielding students with their bodies. They are not heroes. They are sheep who ran at the wolf with no sheepdog or shepherd to guard the flock.

In the long-term:

1. Keep up with the short-term.

2. Promote firearm safety and safe storage education. Yes, talk about guns as part of our society rather than putting our heads in the sand. Teach it in schools.

3. Punish individuals for their actions. Don't punish law-abiding, honest gun owners with new laws and fees while letting criminals walk to keep doing bad stuff.
 
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Also, turn some of the self-righteous SJW rage against the media for making $$ through salacious 24/7 salivating coverage of every detail of the attacks.
 
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