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Gold and silver prices are down

Varmint said:
To buy it back cheaper. The problem with that is that you sell your hot gold stock at say, $8. It drops back to $7 or $6, and you feel good about yourself, but you don't buy right back in, cause it's going down. Then the next day it's $9, and you've the choice of getting back in at a higher price than you sold, or waiting, and hoping it goes back down. It goes to $12, and now you definitely won't get back in. Three years later it's $45 and you're like. :eek:
Click to expand...

This line of thinking is how I ended up with my $45 ASEs.
 
richc said:
We just visited the grocery store. FYI Roche Brothers has live lobsters on sale for $5.99. Select lobsters (1.5 lbs) are $6.99.

Fresh red peppers were $3.99/lb. Fresh garlic $5.99/lb. A small cantaloupe was on sale for $3. A small four pack of off brand toilet paper was $2.49. The prices were extremely high IMHO. I was rather amazed at how few bags of food we got for $150 (albeit $50 of that was lobster...).

The cost of proteins has gone through the roof. They are becoming a rich man's food. So important for anyone's diet yet priced out of reach of mere mortals. I can't imagine trying to feed a family of 5 these days.

We got takeout last night from a decent local restaurant. It cost $90 for 3 of us. My son got the steak tips with rice and asparagus. There were 4 steak tips included. My wife got fried fish. The piece of fish was about 6" long and 3" wide, along with a side or rice and seemingly rather puny. I got veal parm (which was delicious).

If you go there for dinner and add a few drinks and an appetizer or salad it gets very pricey. We did that a few weeks back and dinner for 3 was up near $175, and then add a tip, and we did not drink much. To be clear, this is not a well known restaurant. It's not a place you would even know exists unless you lived in town. I want to support them but it's getting rather pricey.

We're reaching the tipping point IMHO. Food prices have skyrocketed. Restaurants and grocery stores have increased prices trying to stay in business. And we consumers have choices to make with our hard earned dollars.

The other day the CEO or CFO of OpenTable was on CNBC. She mentioned that they had been predicting about 25% of restaurants in this country will fail. Now she expects that estimate was too low.

Buckle your seatbelts... it's gonna get bumpy. And I fear the final destination will not be fun at all.

Rich
Click to expand...


I'm with you... food costs have gone through the roof... especially grocery costs. I'm not sure the average person is noticing a lot, since it seems like we're in the minority that actually grocery shop and cook at home. I suppose if you've been a fast food fan, that there hasn't been much change.
 
LuvDog said:
I'm with you... food costs have gone through the roof... especially grocery costs. I'm not sure the average person is noticing a lot, since it seems like we're in the minority that actually grocery shop and cook at home. I suppose if you've been a fast food fan, that there hasn't been much change.
Click to expand...

Another observation... about 1/2 of the shoppers were employees picking online orders. The world has changed.
 
richc said:
Another observation... about 1/2 of the shoppers were employees picking online orders. The world has changed.
Click to expand...

Yup... even if you do hit a restaurant or fast food... I'd say the majority of people picking up to-go orders are doordash, uber eats, etc.
 
richc said:
We just visited the grocery store. FYI Roche Brothers has live lobsters on sale for $5.99. Select lobsters (1.5 lbs) are $6.99.

Fresh red peppers were $3.99/lb. Fresh garlic $5.99/lb. A small cantaloupe was on sale for $3. A small four pack of off brand toilet paper was $2.49. The prices were extremely high IMHO. I was rather amazed at how few bags of food we got for $150 (albeit $50 of that was lobster...).

The cost of proteins has gone through the roof. They are becoming a rich man's food. So important for anyone's diet yet priced out of reach of mere mortals. I can't imagine trying to feed a family of 5 these days.

We got takeout last night from a decent local restaurant. It cost $90 for 3 of us. My son got the steak tips with rice and asparagus. There were 4 steak tips included. My wife got fried fish. The piece of fish was about 6" long and 3" wide, along with a side or rice and seemingly rather puny. I got veal parm (which was delicious).

If you go there for dinner and add a few drinks and an appetizer or salad it gets very pricey. We did that a few weeks back and dinner for 3 was up near $175, and then add a tip, and we did not drink much. To be clear, this is not a well known restaurant. It's not a place you would even know exists unless you lived in town. I want to support them but it's getting rather pricey.

We're reaching the tipping point IMHO. Food prices have skyrocketed. Restaurants and grocery stores have increased prices trying to stay in business. And we consumers have choices to make with our hard earned dollars.

The other day the CEO or CFO of OpenTable was on CNBC. She mentioned that they had been predicting about 25% of restaurants in this country will fail. Now she expects that estimate was too low.

Buckle your seatbelts... it's gonna get bumpy. And I fear the final destination will not be fun at all.

Rich
Click to expand...

Someone said that we've lived in an artificially low inflation environment for so long that we've forgotten how to recognize rising inflaiton.

Well it's becoming obvious to everyone now. July CPI went up 7% on an annual basis, and CPI is already a number that's doctored to be low. Real inflation is much higher.

The million dollar question is whether this is a short-term Covid-related supply chain issue - or is it the start of hyperinflation. I think it's the former but I'm not sure, and that's scary.
 
LuvDog said:
I'm with you... food costs have gone through the roof... especially grocery costs. I'm not sure the average person is noticing a lot, since it seems like we're in the minority that actually grocery shop and cook at home. I suppose if you've been a fast food fan, that there hasn't been much change.
Click to expand...

It's not just food. We went to look for a desk for one of the kids - being made of wood, the prices are crazy. I bought a new Honda - discounts were $2k less than this winter. My trade-in value was $2k higher than estimated.

We better hope this is all temporary, cause salaries ain't going up 15% a year.
 
richc said:
I remember an episode of the three stooges when their boat had a leak. Curley starts drilling holes in the bottom of the boat to let the water out.

That's what it seems our government is doing right now.
Click to expand...

My 6 year old would do something like that, lol. He encounters any problem he runs to grab a power tool. :oops:
 
Varmint said:
It's not just food. We went to look for a desk for one of the kids - being made of wood, the prices are crazy. I bought a new Honda - discounts were $2k less than this winter. My trade-in value was $2k higher than estimated.

We better hope this is all temporary, cause salaries ain't going up 15% a year.
Click to expand...

And therein lies the disconnect...
 
richc said:
We just visited the grocery store. FYI Roche Brothers has live lobsters on sale for $5.99. Select lobsters (1.5 lbs) are $6.99.

Fresh red peppers were $3.99/lb. Fresh garlic $5.99/lb. A small cantaloupe was on sale for $3. A small four pack of off brand toilet paper was $2.49. The prices were extremely high IMHO. I was rather amazed at how few bags of food we got for $150 (albeit $50 of that was lobster...).

The cost of proteins has gone through the roof. They are becoming a rich man's food. So important for anyone's diet yet priced out of reach of mere mortals. I can't imagine trying to feed a family of 5 these days.

We got takeout last night from a decent local restaurant. It cost $90 for 3 of us. My son got the steak tips with rice and asparagus. There were 4 steak tips included. My wife got fried fish. The piece of fish was about 6" long and 3" wide, along with a side or rice and seemingly rather puny. I got veal parm (which was delicious).

If you go there for dinner and add a few drinks and an appetizer or salad it gets very pricey. We did that a few weeks back and dinner for 3 was up near $175, and then add a tip, and we did not drink much. To be clear, this is not a well known restaurant. It's not a place you would even know exists unless you lived in town. I want to support them but it's getting rather pricey.

We're reaching the tipping point IMHO. Food prices have skyrocketed. Restaurants and grocery stores have increased prices trying to stay in business. And we consumers have choices to make with our hard earned dollars.

The other day the CEO or CFO of OpenTable was on CNBC. She mentioned that they had been predicting about 25% of restaurants in this country will fail. Now she expects that estimate was too low.

Buckle your seatbelts... it's gonna get bumpy. And I fear the final destination will not be fun at all.

Rich
Click to expand...

Rich- I live in Wellesley (as you know) and we have a bunch of supermarkets close by. But the Roche Bros in town is literally the last place I would ever go. It's crazy expensive down the line. I have literally spent 20-25% less at the Whole Foods in town, getting exactly the same items. I don't love it there either, though.
 
samandglove1 said:
Rich- I live in Wellesley (as you know) and we have a bunch of supermarkets close by. But the Roche Bros in town is literally the last place I would ever go. It's crazy expensive down the line. I have literally spent 20-25% less at the Whole Foods in town, getting exactly the same items. I don't love it there either, though.
Click to expand...

Ash,

Living where I do the closest supermarket was Shaws. I hate Shaws. The place smells. Next in line was Roche Brothers.

I liked Roche Brothers for several reasons. Their meat and produce were superior to most. I think they bought their seafood from Captain Marsden. I knew the prices were higher but not at nosebleed levels.

The other reasons... Tom Roche attended Boston Latin School, my alma mater. And he was a generous benefactor. They were also very generous to events and fundraisers in our home town. Quid pro quo.

Finally an old friend worked there as a kid. His father was a schoolteacher and died unexpectedly. He was a very bright young man and the Roche family liked him. They put him through Harvard. Think about that...

Now we have Wegmans as a viable alternative. I also shop much more at Costco. Fortunately we have the room at home for bulk purchases.

I wonder how much longer Roche Brothers will be able to last at retail. They've opened some smaller markets called Brothers Market in a number of more affluent suburbs that are more neighborhood sized. And they are even more expensive. But cater to a higher end clientelle.

Yeah, I'm not a fan of Whole Foods either. I can go either way at Wegmans but their selection is tremendous. And their produce is very good. Among the best I've experienced.

Grocery stores and chains will like have fallout similar to restaurants. It will probably take longer since the chains are far better capitalized than small, independent restaurants. But with stores so empty it's just a matter of time IMHO before some of the local chains falter.
 
Varmint said:
Yeah, you're right, we should probably bite the bullet and buy it before it becomes the next TP. Arggh. $450 for a little wood desk is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

The daughter of a friend is a programmer for Google in NY. The kid has been working on a brown folding table for 6 months at home. Google even told all employees to go buy home office furniture and they would pay for it. But she likes her table.

But the point of the story is a number of big companies have encouraged and funded home office equipment for employees. The demand has skyrocketed.
 
miniion said:
Sound advice. I have gotten in a call for 5 positions with KGC, strike price at $10.00 for Jan 2022. Even with the PM correction, I am still in green.
Click to expand...

I tend to think that many would do well to do likewise. Buy some longer term calls on the miners that you find attractive and sit back and wait a bit.
It will give you added leverage with defined risk. Granted, option holders won't get any dividends, but not many miners are paying anything to write home about.
Good luck!
 

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

If you can’t beat the crypto market you simply join them.
 
Bloomberg: Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked.
www.bloomberg.com

Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
richc said:
Absolutely none of us are smart enough to time the market. Nor do we have the inside info that exists among the big firms. Period...
Click to expand...

I seem to have stepped in at the right time more than once. I've bought in 4 times and sold 3 time at a great profit. I missed the 2011 run up sale because I swapped 100 Oz bars fort SE's and paid 2$ a coin. $200 per 100 SE's. I held through the 2011 peak but I am Dollar Cost Averaged in at $9/Oz. I will sell somewhere between 30 - 40 / Oz this time around plus the SE premium and expect to buy back in after that.

richc said:
Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked.
Click to expand...

His quote, "Gold and silver don't do anything. They just lay there."

Apparently he thinks they will not just lay there this time. He bought miners so they do, do something other than just lying there.
 
djbradles said:

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

If you can’t beat the crypto market you simply join them.
Click to expand...

It's a lot more sinister than that. If the Fed can convert all of us to a digital currency that they control, then suddenly negative interest rates are possible. They could just set Treasury rates at -3% and take 3% of everyone's Fedcoin account every year.
 
Last edited:
richc said:
Bloomberg: Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked.
www.bloomberg.com

Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
Click to expand...

The article title implies he's getting in now but this is based on Q2 filings so he could have been buying in April at really cheap prices for all we know. Love when the tiny gold mining market gets attention. There's a hundred players and only 10 chairs. Gonna get interesting.
 
smokey-seven said:
His quote, "Gold and silver don't do anything. They just lay there."

Apparently he thinks they will not just lay there this time. He bought miners so they do, do something other than just lying there.
Click to expand...

To be fair he's not buying the metals he's buying miners because their revenues are growing like crazy and their costs are dropping due to cheap oil. Gold could stall at $1900 for years and miners will do great at that price.

The fundamentals of gold miners are the best of any sector, the market just doesn't care about fundamentals anymore.
 
richc said:
Forbes: National Debt To Surpass $78 Trillion By 2028: What It Means For Americans.
www.forbes.com

National Debt To Surpass $78 Trillion By 2028: What It Means For Americans

The National Debt has risen over 3,370% since President Jimmy Carter took office. Here's what it means for Americans.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
Click to expand...

They didn't talk much about what it means. Better hope the Fed is able to keep interest rates down or that amount of debt will blow us up.

This week's Treasury auctions have to make you wonder if the Fed can keep rates down while the government is spending so much. The market can't consume so much debt at such low rates.
 

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