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I have little doubt that the breakout is coming, I'm just skeptical that it's so soon. I think we see a larger selloff in the stock market and crypto dragging PMs down before the breakout.
The Saudi's tried that with silver with the Hunt brothers. If gold goes to $3600 the US will do something to counterbalance it. Maybe sell off a million ounces from Fort Knox and replenish our strategic oil reserves while paying down some national debt. (Nahhhh.. that won't happen)He’s saying Russia could peg gold to oil and instantly double its price (in that an ounce of gold buys twice as much oil as $1800 does).
The Saudi's tried that with silver with the Hunt brothers. If gold goes to $3600 the US will do something to counterbalance it. Maybe sell off a million ounces from Fort Knox and replenish our strategic oil reserves while paying down some national debt. (Nahhhh.. that won't happen)
Was just listening to that podcast with Trevor Hall on my way home last night. A plausible scenario.My paid newsletter guy is predicting a failed attempt to break $2000, a retracement to $1850 or $1680-1700 (like if we have a major stock market correction), then a successful break through $2000-2100 on way to $2500.
Miners will go nuts if we cross $2100.
Compare the charts of the last month of silver and gold. Silver is flat and was actually higher than today, while gold just went straight up. Silver should be up around $26 with gold at these levels.
It’s just one negative indicator, there are a lot of positive ones, especially now that gold closed the week not just above $1900 but above the next resistance level at $1920.
Gold and silver miners who tend to lead gold are also acting very bullish although overdue for a short term pullback.
The great thing is so many gold experts have been predicting $1500 gold, and that’s looking very unlikely now. Now they have to scramble to get into positions $400 higher than they wanted.
Over six months gold is up 10.86%. But silver is up 28.99%.
Seems like gold has a long way to go to catch up to silver.
Which time span is more important? Is silver just taking a breather or about to take a dump?
Well, I'll open my mouth once again. I've said that silver will hit $30 before it hits $17 and silver did a dead cat bounce off of $17 for one day and has been pretty straight up since then. I'm looking at $30+ and a cash out.Which time span is more important? Is silver just taking a breather or about to take a dump?
Well, I'll open my mouth once again. I've said that silver will hit $30 before it hits $17 and silver did a dead cat bounce off of $17 for one day and has been pretty straight up since then. I'm looking at $30+ and a cash out.
My other paid newsletter guy who’s a technical analyst, talking about whether gold is in a dead cat bounce or new bull market.
I don’t understand why you have rushed to make a call of “the end of the cyclical gold bear” and saying that gold is strong both fundamentally and technically. I mean, if you look at the monthly gold candle chart, it is technically very bearish: first there was a double top, then it broke the consolidation support and made a clear lower low. And now gold is potentially making a dead cat bounce to the resistance with aim to make a significant lower high. A perfect textbook case would be if it failed here around 1900, maybe with a big reversal candle, and then started to roll over to 1560 and 1450. Maybe even to 1370 since that 2016 consolidation roof was never tested. This gold correction has been so far quite muted (only 22 % compared to about 50 % in 1974-76) so a big leg down would strengthen the case for a potential huge move up later in this decade. Looking at gold in foreign currency, major indicators (MACD, RSI, stochastics) are making sharp monthly negative divergences which could indicate that this ongoing rally is just making a lower high before dropping to 200 week moving average?
All this being said pure technically without fundamental considerations, where can also be found significant potential headwinds to gold. But if we look at just the technical analysis now, do you disagree with above mentioned bear formation and if so, why?
Yes Gold made a double top but Gold also had a failed breakdown (at $1675) and now has retraced more than 62% of the decline. A dead cat bounce would entail Gold rallying from $1620 back to $1675-$1725 and then rolling over again. It has gone way too far for that and now it’s outperforming everything. This is a market that has gained strength. This is the opposite of failure behavior.
A big down leg is not needed for a huge move up. Gold is at the same level of 12 years ago. Gold against many metrics a few months ago was close to 1970 and 2000 levels. The $1375 level does not need to be retested. From 2016-2018 Gold tested it three different times before breaking through. There does not need to be a retest.
Momentum indicators are derivatives of price and they will always show divergences coming off major bottoms. Momentum indicators are not important. RSI is the best, btw.
There was a lot of technical damage after the 30% decline in 2008 and Gold came right back up. There is more damage this time around so it will be interesting to see how long it takes Gold to get through $1900-$1950.
If this guy's advice is spot on, why does he sell a newsletter? He'd be better off leveraged investing and making a fortune...
I’m looking beyond $2k. Little profit taking on the futures this am and I’m pretty sure we won’t see sub $1800 again.