Gold and silver prices are down

[Win]

I'm getting nervous. I'm not ready to stop accumulating old gold but I might be forced to switch to silver numismatic coins if gold goes up significantly.

 

[richc]

Truth be known these ups and downs are fairly meaningless to many of us. Probably you and Win too.

Every commodity goes up and down. I try to add a bit when prices drop, and tend to avoid purchases when prices are up. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong.

But I think many of us have a small nest egg of PM's for the day the dollar develops angina and then goes into cardiac arrest. China wants to become the world reserve currency. Russia and China are both stockpiling large volumes of gold in anticipation of a gold backed Chinese currency. And the fiat dollar will lose its luster fast and hard.

It might happen in 5 years? Maybe 10? Maybe 15? But it does seem invevitable IMHO. Rampant government debt is not sustainable. Me thinks each new presidential administration hopes and prays it does not happen under their watch. And they'll sell out the American people doing whatever it takes to prevent that from happening, and them being blamed in the history books.

It's like a game of Musical Chairs, but for each presidential administration.

Off we go like a rocket for the $1350 resistance level. I don’t think it’ll break, but it’ll be fun to watch. The gold manipulators might be getting nervous with gold punching through $1320 so easily..

 

[richc]

Win,

I don't think we're there yet. I suspect there will be more buying opportunities.

But having said that there are some absolutely beautiful silver coins out there. I love Morgan dollars. And to a lesser extent peace dollars. Standing Liberty quarters and halves are amazing coins. Mercury dimes too.

The days when we Americans could be proud of the artistic and intrinsic precious metals value of our coinage...

Rich

I'm getting nervous. I'm not ready to stop accumulating old gold but I might be forced to switch to silver numismatic coins if gold goes up significantly.

 

[Varmint]

I'm getting nervous. I'm not ready to stop accumulating old gold but I might be forced to switch to silver numismatic coins if gold goes up significantly.

Win,

I don't think we're there yet. I suspect there will be more buying opportunities.

I think that once we clear $1400 gold solidly (the powers that be will try everything they can to drive it back down), gold is off to the races, next stop probably $1900, and will probably never return below $1400.

That's why I'm trying to accumulate now. Once gold is hot, you won't see any deals on Ebay, it'll be $1600 spot, and $200 premium for a gold eagle.

When will we clear $1400? I think it’ll take more than just rate cut talk, it’ll take actual rate cuts, maybe even QE4. So I think this rally will fail around $1350. We’ll probably revisit $1220 before $1400.

 

[Varmint]

Truth be known these ups and downs are fairly meaningless to many of us. Probably you and Win too.

Every commodity goes up and down. I try to add a bit when prices drop, and tend to avoid purchases when prices are up. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong.

But I think many of us have a small nest egg of PM's for the day the dollar develops angina and then goes into cardiac arrest. China wants to become the world reserve currency. Russia and China are both stockpiling large volumes of gold in anticipation of a gold backed Chinese currency. And the fiat dollar will lose its luster fast and hard.

It might happen in 5 years? Maybe 10? Maybe 15? But it does seem invevitable IMHO. Rampant government debt is not sustainable. Me thinks each new presidential administration hopes and prays it does not happen under their watch. And they'll sell out the American people doing whatever it takes to prevent that from happening, and them being blamed in the history books.

It's like a game of Musical Chairs, but for each presidential administration.

Couldn’t have said it better.
I think we’re in a very unusual time for gold/silver, similar to 1971, with prices coiled like a spring. But it could still take 5-10 years before the central banks lose control of things.

 

[HappyHarry]

I'm getting nervous. I'm not ready to stop accumulating old gold but I might be forced to switch to silver numismatic coins if gold goes up significantly.

I wouldn't rush into numismatic coins as an investment. The market for most rare coins is kind of imploding in most categories. I don't know how far back you coin experience goes, but I can tell you I have been dealing in rare coins for about 45 years, sometimes part-time and sometimes (including now) full-time. I remember in late 1979 - early 1980 a nice, common date, proof 3 cent nickel was going for over $2000. Now, almost 40 years later, you'd be hard-pressed to get $400 retail for the same coin. "Poor return" is a massive understatement.

Obviously, rare coins have had ups and downs over the years, but the current market is the worst I've seen. The biggest reason is probably that there are so few new collectors; less demand = lower prices. Another reason is the insidious proliferation of high quality Chinese counterfeits.

 

[richc]

HappyHarry,

Have you seen many Chinese fakes in your coin dealings? How about fakes that include fake PCGS or NGC coin cases?

How are coin and precious metals dealers testing for these high quality fakes? Certainly it can be a very costly mistake to purchase these counterfeits, whether as consumer or dealer!

Fascinating and scary...

I wouldn't rush into numismatic coins as an investment. The market for most rare coins is kind of imploding in most categories. I don't know how far back you coin experience goes, but I can tell you I have been dealing in rare coins for about 45 years, sometimes part-time and sometimes (including now) full-time. I remember in late 1979 - early 1980 a nice, common date, proof 3 cent nickel was going for over $2000. Now, almost 40 years later, you'd be hard-pressed to get $400 retail for the same coin. "Poor return" is a massive understatement.

Obviously, rare coins have had ups and downs over the years, but the current market is the worst I've seen. The biggest reason is probably that there are so few new collectors; less demand = lower prices. Another reason is the insidious proliferation of high quality Chinese counterfeits.

 

[Varmint]

I wouldn't rush into numismatic coins as an investment. The market for most rare coins is kind of imploding in most categories. I don't know how far back you coin experience goes, but I can tell you I have been dealing in rare coins for about 45 years, sometimes part-time and sometimes (including now) full-time. I remember in late 1979 - early 1980 a nice, common date, proof 3 cent nickel was going for over $2000. Now, almost 40 years later, you'd be hard-pressed to get $400 retail for the same coin. "Poor return" is a massive understatement.

Obviously, rare coins have had ups and downs over the years, but the current market is the worst I've seen. The biggest reason is probably that there are so few new collectors; less demand = lower prices. Another reason is the insidious proliferation of high quality Chinese counterfeits.

This probably goes for all collecting. I collected beer cans as a kid. A few years ago I just recycled them all, since they'd become worthless.

It's interesting though cause $22 trillion in central bank printing has driven up all kinds of collectible assets, like art. Probably just on the high end.

 

[richc]

Sung to "American Pie" by the great Don McLean...


A long long time ago
I can still remember how
That money used to make me smile
And I knew at first glance
That new coins provoked big rants
And I was not happy for a while


New clad coins lost their silver
Their cheap sound made me shiver
Bad news in the economy
But the government had autonomy


I can't remember if I cried
When our currency lost it’s precious pride
Something touched me deep inside
The day the dollar died


So Bye, bye Miss American Pride
Bye, bye Miss American Pride
Drove my tank to the bank but the bank was dry
And them good ole boys were saving all their dimes
Singin' this'll be the day that I'll buy
This'll be the day that I'll buy


Did you write the book of money
And do you have faith in the government above?
If the President tells you so?
Do you believe in cheap coinage?
Or does fiat money make you rage?
And can you help me find coins from so long ago?


Well, I know that the economy is grim
'Cause interest rates have turned real dim
And Trump punished with tariffs
Man, I really dig silver and gold


I was a collector trying to save a buck
Finding silver coins with some luck
But I knew the economy was going to suck
The day the dollar died


I started singin'
Bye, bye Miss American Pride
Drove my tank to the bank but the bank was dry
And them good ole boys were saving all their dimes
Singin' this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy


Now, for 55 years we've been on our own
And money is funded from a government loan
But, that's not how it used to be


When the coins pinged sweetly for the king and queen
From the silver content that was supreme
And a voice that said it will no longer be


Oh and while the people were looking down
The government made us all frown
The people scrambled all around
Bad news seems to abound


And while the President read a book on Marx
We were kept in the dark
And the people talked quietly in the parks
The day the dollar died


We were singin'
Bye, bye Miss American Pride
Drove my tank to the bank but the bank was dry
And them good ole boys were saving all their dimes
Singin' this'll be the day that I buy
This'll be the day that I buy



A parody of a sad day and time...

 

[rep308]

Give a guy a new set of eyes and he can do all sorts of funny stuff....

 

[HappyHarry]

This probably goes for all collecting. I collected beer cans as a kid. A few years ago I just recycled them all, since they'd become worthless.

It's interesting though cause $22 trillion in central bank printing has driven up all kinds of collectible assets, like art. Probably just on the high end.

You say "probably just on the high end" and I'd absolutely agree. Today's 2 million dollar coin might fetch 3, 4, or 5 million in ten years, but today's $1000 coin might bring $700, 800, 1400, who knows? But for long-term investments, I'll stick with the stock market, with a very small hedge in some bullion gold & silver coins.

The "art" that your average wanna-be "art investor" buys is very unlikely to have a positive return, the multi-million dollar auction pieces may be a different story. Much depends on what you buy, and where. Like jewelry - if you bought it on a cruise ship or in a vacation destination, it's a pretty safe bet you got screwed.

 

[HappyHarry]

HappyHarry,

Have you seen many Chinese fakes in your coin dealings? How about fakes that include fake PCGS or NGC coin cases?

How are coin and precious metals dealers testing for these high quality fakes? Certainly it can be a very costly mistake to purchase these counterfeits, whether as consumer or dealer!

Fascinating and scary...

There are tons of these counterfeits around and they are getting better and better. Many are in counterfeit NGC or PCGS slabs. They will use slab serial numbers that match up to a genuine coin of the same description, so when you check the serial number, it matches up to the date, mint mark and condition of the fake coin, in the fake slab in front of you. Look at the photos of some of the fakes on ebay in my previous post.

A scale, some electronic test equipment, a micrometer, and some experience will weed out most, but it's getting tougher. This problem with counterfeits has extended to almost every collectible or luxury item. They are counterfeiting everything from sneakers to handbags to jewelry. It used to be very easy to spot a fake Rolex, now they are making super clones that are hard to spot even after opening them up. Some have genuine rotor plates inside and come with very real looking boxes and paperwork. It's a jungle out there!

I very recently had someone try to sell me some 1 ounce gold bars. They weighed right, and tested good on an electronic karat tester and on a Sigma tester, but there were some clues about the seller that tingled my spidey-sense. When I measured the dimensions with a micrometer they measured about .3-.4 mm too thick. Doesn't sound like much, but it was about a 10% discrepancy. They likely did have a good deal of gold along with a delicious chewy tungsten center. He didn't seem surprised when I passed on buying them.

If you want to stay as safe as possible on gold and silver, I would suggest sticking with US 90% silver coins and US gold eagles or old $20 gold pieces. The old 20's contain .9675 ounces of pure gold and are available for a very small premium over the gold value. AND ALWAYS BUY FROM A RELIABLE SELLER.

 

[Win]

These PM are still moving up. Do I have this right - anticipated gold resistance at $1,350? What about silver resistance? We just broke $15.

 

[Varmint]

Gold is $1345 in pre market, so close! Get ready for the big banks to dump a bazillion ounces of paper contracts on the market. They won’t give up $1350.

 

[Varmint]

These PM are still moving up. Do I have this right - anticipated gold resistance at $1,350? What about silver resistance? We just broke $15.

Gold has bounced off resistance at $1350-$1365 five times in the last few years. It’s like the big commodities banks jumping in to stop the rally. We’d have to clear $1365 for several days and probably go to $1400 to say we’re safely through resistance. I don’t think it’ll happen this time. And when it fails it’ll probably tank to $1220 in the next month or so and hopefully stop there.

Silver will just follow gold, I wouldn’t pay much attention to silver price.

 

[Varmint]

Gold miners aren’t participating that much in this rally which means it’s probably just the weak hand of short term traders driving up gold as a fear trade. That’ll fizzle and there doesn’t seem to be any big follow through needed to break through $1350.

I’m on the fence, I want lower prices to buy more (mining stocks and PMs) but would love to see gold (shiny poo) explode higher and quiet the naysayers!

 

[Win]

Gold miners aren’t participating that much in this rally which means it’s probably just the weak hand of short term traders driving up gold as a fear trade. That’ll fizzle and there doesn’t seem to be any big follow through needed to break through $1350.

I’m on the fence, I want lower prices to buy more (mining stocks and PMs) but would love to see gold (shiny poo) explode higher and quiet the naysayers!

I'm a contrarian on most issues, so I'm used to most folks disagreeing with me. Doesn't bother me.

Since I'm increasingly confident about the overall direction we're going in, I wouldn't mind a little more time to accumulate.

 

[Win]

Upgraded my pilgrim

 

[HappyHarry]

Upgraded my pilgrim

Very nice, love the color! Looks like it's in a grading service holder, what did it grade?

 

[Varmint]

I'm a contrarian on most issues, so I'm used to most folks disagreeing with me. Doesn't bother me.

Since I'm increasingly confident about the overall direction we're going in, I wouldn't mind a little more time to accumulate.

I feel the same. I'm very glad gold/silver aren't popular, cause then they'd be expensive.

 

[Win]

PCGS CAC 66. Thank you!

 

[Rob Boudrie]

When I measured the dimensions with a micrometer they measured about .3-.4 mm too thick. Doesn't sound like much, but it was about a 10% discrepancy.

Tungsten about .25% (a quarter of a percent) denser than gold. So how does that discrepancy translate to a 10% difference in thickness unless something other than W was in that fake.

 

[HappyHarry]

Tungsten about .25% (a quarter of a percent) denser than gold. So how does that discrepancy translate to a 10% difference in thickness unless something other than W was in that fake.

Actually, gold is very slightly denser than tungsten at about 19.3 g/cm/\3 vs. tungsten at about 19.25 g/cm/\3. Still not enough to account for a 10% discrepancy. It may not have been tungsten and it may not have been 10% off, it may have been 7 or 8 percent, I didn’t really care at that point. Whatever it was, it was enough for me to be suspicious enough to pass on buying the deal, especially coupled with the behavioral clues coming from the seller.

The margin is just way too slim on bullion to take any risk. If even one little thing is even slightly off on a bullion deal, I will pass on buying; and my amateur "behavioral analysis" of the seller is a major consideration.

 

[Win]

Crappy economic data today. Might test $1,350. Will be interesting to watch...

 

[richc]

Reading people has saved me from working for a few really nasty people.

A couple decades ago I visited a potential client in the greater NY area. The woman was nice but in a very fake kind of way. My spidy senses were up. At one point she looks at me and says "My husband and son are both lawyers and protect my interests". WTF? I'm looking for a fire exit at this point.

Long story short I passed on working for them. But not so for a friendly competitor who did hear from the lawyerly husband and got into a mess with them.

Now the rest of the story... this woman used to be on CNBC regularly. So after my interaction I'd see her. When I heard her voice it made me shiver... there was just something about her.

Happily she has gone out of business. Her business model could not work in the internet age. The "information" she sold is easily available now with a couple searches.

Over the years I've developed a list of "Rich's Rules" for identifying potentially problematic clients. And I've taught my team that we make more money on some clients by walking away.

A long way of saying it's best to read the customer carefully...

Actually, gold is very slightly denser than tungsten at about 19.3 g/cm/\3 vs. tungsten at about 19.25 g/cm/\3. Still not enough to account for a 10% discrepancy. It may not have been tungsten and it may not have been 10% off, it may have been 7 or 8 percent, I didn’t really care at that point. Whatever it was, it was enough for me to be suspicious enough to pass on buying the deal, especially coupled with the behavioral clues coming from the seller.

The margin is just way too slim on bullion to take any risk. If even one little thing is even slightly off on a bullion deal, I will pass on buying; and my amateur "behavioral analysis" of the seller is a major consideration.

 

[richc]

Win,

Love the toning on that coin!

Upgraded my pilgrim

 

[Varmint]

13% Bucks today. This Mexican coin is $50 below spot.

SPECIAL PRICE! Mexico Gold 50 Pesos AGW 1.2057 (Random Year) - SKU #92150 | eBay

 

[Varmint]

More Bucks deals:

$76 below spot
SPECIAL PRICE! Austria Gold 100 Coronas BU (Random) - SKU #167645 | eBay

$44 below spot for Liberty Eagle

SPECIAL PRICE! $20 Liberty Gold Double Eagle AU (Random Year) - SKU #132973 | eBay

Not sure how good this price is:
Peace Silver Dollars for $14.27/coin. This one is taxed below $1000.
SPECIAL PRICE! 1922-1935 Peace Silver Dollars VG-XF (20-Count Roll, Random) | eBay

These are always available, not the best price since spot price is over $15 now.
Roll of 25 2019 Canada 1 oz Silver Maple Leaf Incuse $5 GEM BU SKU57181 | eBay

Roll of 20 2019 1 oz American Silver Eagle $1 GEM BU SKU55907 | eBay

 

[samandglove1]

13% Bucks today. This Mexican coin is $50 below spot.

SPECIAL PRICE! Mexico Gold 50 Pesos AGW 1.2057 (Random Year) - SKU #92150 | eBay

Brewer on the forum has both a 50 Peso and a 100 Corona for less than the eBay Bucks deals. I’ve bought a bunch of gold coins from him and the deals were super easy. He even brings a Sigma machine and tests the coins right in front of you. He’s an honest guy.

 

[samandglove1]

I did buy a bunch of different Sovereigns at below spot using eBay bucks last night. I maxed out on one account and had to use another.