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FBI Study on Active Shooter Incidents

The study says 21 of 160:

"- More than half of the incidents—90 shootings—ended on the shooter’s initiative (i.e., suicide, fleeing), while 21 incidents ended after unarmed citizens successfully restrained the shooter.

- In 21 of the 45 incidents where law enforcement had to engage the shooter to end the threat, nine officers were killed and 28 were wounded."

I pasted the second bullet to compare with the first to compare results of LEO success vs civilian success.
 
Its missing some key elements:

Incidents that took place in gun free zones

Incidents ended after ARMED citizens successfully confronted an active shooter.
 
I'd also like to know what their definition of an "active shooter incident" is. They specifically mention excluding cases relating to "gang or drug violence", but don't mention things like convenience store holdups, bank robberies, and domestic violence as being excluded. (At least some of those categories probably were; the numbers would be much higher otherwise.) It's obvious that what they mean is mass-shooting incidents like the one targeting Gabby Giffords, Newtown, Columbine, Virginia Tech, etc., but if that's the case, why didn't they just say "mass shooting incident"? Unless there are some incidents that they wanted to include that aren't included in the formal definition of "mass shooting"?

For example, the Clackamas Town Center shooter only managed to kill two people before the incident was ended by a citizen with a lawfully carried concealed weapon. As such, the crime doesn't meet the minimum number of casualties for a "mass killing", which is three, by the FBI's definition. But any reasonable person would look at that and say that a mass killing was what the perpetrator intended. Similarly, the incident that inspired the Boomtown Rats' song "I Don't Like Mondays" doesn't commonly appear on lists of mass shootings, either, because only two people died when the shooter shot at an elementary school playground from across the street.

Honestly, I smell cooked data, especially when you consider that a graph that goes back to 1980 and uses the FBI's definition of "mass shooting" doesn't show an upward trend:
http://reason.com/blog/2012/12/17/are-mass-shootings-becoming-more-common In fact, cherry-picking 2000-2014 seems tailor made for an argument in favor of reinstating the AWB.

Furthermore, I don't know why we're allowing mass-shooter incidents to drive public policy about guns. These incidents are extremely rare and the likelihood that you'll be involved in one is much smaller than the likelihood that you'll be a victim of domestic violence or ordinary violent street crime. They're like plane crashes. Everyone pays attention to plane crashes because they're rare, horrific incidents with dozens or hundreds of casualties. People fear flying, yet they don't fear the drive to the airport, although statistics show you're much more likely to get hurt or killed driving to the airport than flying.

(My cynical suspicion, of course, is that the antis, faced with the fact that street crime has been dropping nationwide for 20+ years after peaking in the early '90s, know that citing street crime as a reason for gun control is a dog that won't hunt. So they have to play up these mass-shooter incidents to gin up support.)
 
That was conspicuously absent. Funny how they specifically mention "unarmed citizens", but dont mention instances of an armed citizen intervening.

Its partly due to the design of the laws, where shooters mostly hit are areas people are unarmed, its naturall to see the stitistics showing more unarmed civilians stopping mass shootings then armed ones,

kinda like some one i know who could not figuer out how the stock history worked when we did the stores stock orderes, (example) if i had 2 cases of oil and sold both of them in one month, i would want to order 3 this month so i could sell more and not run out, but i would be told i only sold 2 last month, and i would arguably tell them i only had 2 to sell, and so on, and i would continue to only sell 2 cases of oil

So if you crate a situation that will produce only one result, the stitistics/history will only show that and nothing else, its not hard to beleave, but to them the arguement that there may not have had so many killed if it was not a gun free zone dose not compute with them
 
That was conspicuously absent. Funny how they specifically mention "unarmed citizens", but don't mention any instances of an armed citizen intervening.

You'd think the FBI would allocate for the 4 unaccounted active shooter incidents that were resolved (160-(90+45+21) Remainder of 4). They could or could not be resolved by an armed citizen but it is the most likely that they were.

Now, for the active shooter situations that were PREVENTED by armed citizenry are largely understated, often speculatory, and never measured due to the lack of a body count.

So if you create a situation that will produce only one result, the statistics/history will only show that and nothing else

Well said.
 
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5 events (3.1%) stopped by armed citizens
21 events stopped by unarmed citizens
24.4% at schools
10% at government facilities

So at least a third were probably gun free zones
 
I have found (through work) that the problem solving process can be skewed to any resolution if the resolution is the one that you solve for. If you focus on the (predetermined) resolution as the driving force all of the supporting data you find will be skewed toward that false resolution.
You have to be truly open to all information and to any solution to the problem. This is neither; heavily filtered supporting data which supports what they want the ignoring data that does not support their predetermined findings. In addition how can you possibly determine a potentially lethal event if it was thwarted by an armed citizen or oath taker?
We would like to deal with facts . . . . not an idea from a SciFi movie like Minority Report or have to go into analysis of studies of Schrödinger's cat.
 
I have found (through work) that the problem solving process can be skewed to any resolution if the resolution is the one that you solve for.

Right. It's very easy to draw incorrect conclusions if you start with incorrect expectations. Classic example from WW2 bomber design: Losses were too high, so they decided they should add armor. More armor meant the plane could carry fewer bombs, so they wanted to be sure to put the armor in the right places. So they gathered statistics on holes in the planes, planning to put armor in the places that got lots of holes. The statisticians and engineers got quite far along in the data gathering, statistical analysis, and armor re-design. Then a non-statistician pointed out that they're only counting holes in the planes that came back. They should put the armor in the places where they never see holes, because planes with holes in those places don't come back.

Facts are important. So is expertise and judgement. Violence in our society is complicated, solutions will take long-term planning and persistence, and our politicians need short-term perceived wins to get elected. They don't have to be real wins, just perceived wins. So they argue about abortion and gun control while quietly stripping us of our privacy and our freedom as the oligarchs rob us all blind.

This is what my sig is about.
 
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The report lists the 160 incidents in Appendix A. It would be interesting if someone had the time to go through them and determine which are gun-free zones. We could then calculate some statistics of our own.
 
We know how it turned out for the armed civilian (dead) when he intervened in Walmart(?) with the pair that shot the cop in a pizza joint. Go figure -- the one time there were two shooters.
 
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