Economic "Doom" Mega thread

djbradles

NES Member
Rating - 100%
1   0   0
Joined
Sep 16, 2014
Messages
4,241
Likes
7,120
I think Congress is predictably waffling on stimulus now that the stock market is high. Back in February and March, they didn't lift a finger until the stock market crashed, then they were falling over themselves to issue stimulus.

So here we are again, and the stock market is at record highs expecting stimulus, but that very fact is preventing the stimulus. So something has to give, and I think it's going to be the stock market.

gold and silver market will also get hit, giving people another buying opportunity, but probably not nearly as good as March, since we now know the Fed is ready with the money firehose - back in March we didn't know that.
Maybe. With the stock market out of the picture you still have record unemployment, pending loan default crisis, and the ever growing service of debt liabilities. To me there’s more than just a high priced market to consider, right?

btw El Dorado is double the price of B2 and B2 posted 260k ounces of quarterly production. It’s currently at around $7 a share. I expect it to rise exponentially especially if they reach their goal of over a million ounces by Q4. Whaddya think?
 
Last edited:

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
15,421
Likes
7,550
Location
North Shore, MA
Maybe. With the stock market out of the picture you still have record unemployment, pending loan default crisis, and the ever growing service of debt liabilities. To me there’s more than just a high priced market to consider, right?

btw El Dorado is double the price of B2 and B2 posted 260k ounces of quarterly production. It’s currently at around $7 a share. I expect it to rise exponentially especially if they reach their goal of over a million ounces by Q4. Whaddya think?
Economic problems take a long time to manifest - Congress moved really quickly in March cause of the stock market. They couldn't care less about the working masses or small business, but they care greatly about the stock market, cause if it really crashed, it would threaten the foundation of our government - deficit spending. That's why they acted so fast in March, and it's why they're not acting now, despite much of the country hurting badly.

Look at how Pilosi just exploded on Wolf Blitzer when he asked why $1.8 trillion stimulus isn't something worth negotiating.


I don't really know EGO or B2 well enough to have an opinion. Trying to value miners is really tough, there's so many factors. But I do think cash flow is going to be really important especially if we have a pullback in the mining sector. A lot of these miners who are actually in production are going to have crazy good cash flow. I don't think the prices reflect that yet.
 

djbradles

NES Member
Rating - 100%
1   0   0
Joined
Sep 16, 2014
Messages
4,241
Likes
7,120
Economic problems take a long time to manifest - Congress moved really quickly in March cause of the stock market. They couldn't care less about the working masses or small business, but they care greatly about the stock market, cause if it really crashed, it would threaten the foundation of our government - deficit spending. That's why they acted so fast in March, and it's why they're not acting now, despite much of the country hurting badly.

Look at how Pilosi just exploded on Wolf Blitzer when he asked why $1.8 trillion stimulus isn't something worth negotiating.


I don't really know EGO or B2 well enough to have an opinion. Trying to value miners is really tough, there's so many factors. But I do think cash flow is going to be really important especially if we have a pullback in the mining sector. A lot of these miners who are actually in production are going to have crazy good cash flow. I don't think the prices reflect that yet.
As Kory Fleck would say, “Fair enough.”
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
15,421
Likes
7,550
Location
North Shore, MA
As Kory Fleck would say, “Fair enough.”
I could certainly be wrong. Congress might decide they'll look better to voters if they compromise.

But I suspect the Democrats are thinking, we're gonna win the Senate for sure, and probably the White House. So let's wait til after the election and then we'll give the voters a $3 trillion stimulus and massive bailout of the Democrat states and cities.

I think the stock market sees this coming too, that's probably why it isn't selling off.
 

NHCraigT

NES Member
Rating - 100%
2   0   0
Joined
Dec 19, 2005
Messages
4,794
Likes
4,627
Location
Southern NH
1602952916060.pngFor decades, progressives have attempted to use climate change to justify liberal policy changes. But their latest attempt - a new proposal called the "Great Reset" - is the most ambitious and radical plan the world has seen in more than a generation.
... Schwab also said that "all aspects of our societies and economies" must be "revamped," "from education to social contracts and working conditions." ...
... Prince Charles was right: The present pandemic is a "golden opportunity" for radical change. And if Al Gore, Prince Charles and the rest of the World Economic Forum can convince enough people that attempting to stop climate change is also worth dramatically pushing humanity toward greater government control, then radical - and catastrophic - change is exactly what we're going to get....
 
Last edited:

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
15,421
Likes
7,550
Location
North Shore, MA

NH_Realtor

NES Life Member
NES Member
Rating - 100%
2   0   0
Joined
Feb 1, 2013
Messages
1,785
Likes
1,274
Location
Seacoast & Lakes Region
So what happens when the breakers go out?
I don't really understand using the lights going out as an argument against btc. Even if we still had electricity but just the internet went down for 5 days the world would be on fire. So if we do hit a true grid down situation paper dollars, gold, btc are all useless with gold eventually becoming a currency but until that happens it's food, alcohol, gas, cigarettes, drugs and ammo as currencies.

I think there are plenty of other logical arguments against btc. Like it's a pain in the ass to use, and the network is slow. I do consider it an asset worth holding though, just like gold, silver, real estate, ammo, tequila, etc.
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
15,421
Likes
7,550
Location
North Shore, MA
I don't really understand using the lights going out as an argument against btc. Even if we still had electricity but just the internet went down for 5 days the world would be on fire. So if we do hit a true grid down situation paper dollars, gold, btc are all useless with gold eventually becoming a currency but until that happens it's food, alcohol, gas, cigarettes, drugs and ammo as currencies.

I think there are plenty of other logical arguments against btc. Like it's a pain in the ass to use, and the network is slow. I do consider it an asset worth holding though, just like gold, silver, real estate, ammo, tequila, etc.
I think it's in the same boat as someone's million dollar Fidelity account. It'll survive a week or month without electicity, but might not survive some kind of reset, like Die Hard Whatever, when the dude tried to wipe out the financial records. I think that scenario is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

More likely is some kind of financial collapse, followed by a bail-in, like was done in Cyprus. The banking system collapses. You go to bed, wake up and turn on the news, and find out your $100k portfolio in Morgan Stanley is now worth $20k. But the good news is the banks have been made whole and the financial system is working again.

Nancy Pilosi and the other elites somehow were able to transfer their money out before the bail-in, surprise surprise.
 

NH_Realtor

NES Life Member
NES Member
Rating - 100%
2   0   0
Joined
Feb 1, 2013
Messages
1,785
Likes
1,274
Location
Seacoast & Lakes Region
I think it's in the same boat as someone's million dollar Fidelity account. It'll survive a week or month without electicity, but might not survive some kind of reset, like Die Hard Whatever, when the dude tried to wipe out the financial records. I think that scenario is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

More likely is some kind of financial collapse, followed by a bail-in, like was done in Cyprus. The banking system collapses. You go to bed, wake up and turn on the news, and find out your $100k portfolio in Morgan Stanley is now worth $20k. But the good news is the banks have been made whole and the financial system is working again.

Nancy Pilosi and the other elites somehow were able to transfer their money out before the bail-in, surprise surprise.
Yeah I agree, financial collapse is my biggest concern and again I see btc as a hedge against the dollar just like gold. Obviously in my field I believe in real estate too so given the debt situation we've been growing over the last 30 years I don't keep much wealth in dollars. Liquidity is necessary at times but I try to plan for that. 4 investment properties and growing.

I think you're thinking of fight club though. But die hard 3 is one of my favorites, that's when Jeremy Irons steals all the gold. Or would of if it wasn't for that pesky John McClane.
 

djbradles

NES Member
Rating - 100%
1   0   0
Joined
Sep 16, 2014
Messages
4,241
Likes
7,120
Yeah I agree, financial collapse is my biggest concern and again I see btc as a hedge against the dollar just like gold. Obviously in my field I believe in real estate too so given the debt situation we've been growing over the last 30 years I don't keep much wealth in dollars. Liquidity is necessary at times but I try to plan for that. 4 investment properties and growing.

I think you're thinking of fight club though. But die hard 3 is one of my favorites, that's when Jeremy Irons steals all the gold. Or would of if it wasn't for that pesky John McClane.
@Varmint got to the response before I did and pretty much sums up my position. Short term I see no issue with it.
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
15,421
Likes
7,550
Location
North Shore, MA
Yeah I agree, financial collapse is my biggest concern and again I see btc as a hedge against the dollar just like gold. Obviously in my field I believe in real estate too so given the debt situation we've been growing over the last 30 years I don't keep much wealth in dollars. Liquidity is necessary at times but I try to plan for that. 4 investment properties and growing.

I think you're thinking of fight club though. But die hard 3 is one of my favorites, that's when Jeremy Irons steals all the gold. Or would of if it wasn't for that pesky John McClane.
I'd put real estate and gold as top choices right now.

Forgot about Fight Club, but yeah I was thinking of the Die Hard 4 w/ the funny kid - think the bad guy is wiping out the financial system. That one wasn't bad. The 5th one sucked, or at least I remember nothing of it. 3 and 1 were the best yeah.
 

djbradles

NES Member
Rating - 100%
1   0   0
Joined
Sep 16, 2014
Messages
4,241
Likes
7,120
There is the probability that as central banks go digital BTC could wind up being highly regulated and outright snuffed.
 

NH_Realtor

NES Life Member
NES Member
Rating - 100%
2   0   0
Joined
Feb 1, 2013
Messages
1,785
Likes
1,274
Location
Seacoast & Lakes Region
I'd put real estate and gold as top choices right now.

Forgot about Fight Club, but yeah I was thinking of the Die Hard 4 w/ the funny kid - think the bad guy is wiping out the financial system. That one wasn't bad. The 5th one sucked, or at least I remember nothing of it. 3 and 1 were the best yeah.
We just sold our vacation rental property and 1031'd into 2 cash flowing multi's on the seacoast. I was nervous about holding that as an investment tool assuming a financial disaster or bad market crash, people won't be taking vacations. BUT everyone needs a place to live, seacoast has jobs that aren't necessarily tech dependent.

I gave up after 3 but maybe I'll have to give #4 a shot. I heard 5 was just abysmal.

There is the probability that as central banks go digital BTC could wind up being highly regulated and outright snuffed.
I agree, it'll be regulated sooner rather than later. Still wanna have some though
 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
15,421
Likes
7,550
Location
North Shore, MA
There is the probability that as central banks go digital BTC could wind up being highly regulated and outright snuffed.
Not sure what it would mean in a practical sense - the central banks are already digital in the sense they mostly just buy assets digitally and put them on their balance sheet. They could create a Fedcoin and hand it out to people like candy, but I don't think that would make anyone want to give up their currency, bitcoin or gold to use the Fedcoin. People would just cash in the Fedcoin and buy gold or whatever.

I think down the line when things get bad, governments will do a lot of crazy stuff like banning gold or trying to control bitcoin. By then it probably will be $1 million though lol.

Die Hard 4 was ridiculously over the top, but the kid was funny so that made up for it a little - die hards are supposed to be funny, at least once in a while. They forgot that in 5 and 2.
 

GM-GUY

NES Member
Rating - 100%
5   0   0
Joined
May 27, 2008
Messages
10,283
Likes
6,545
Location
North Central Mass
Don’t forget, the customer was put in a secondary position (I don’t recall the name for it) some years ago by Congress. Basically, you loaned money (your deposits) to the bank.
 

GM-GUY

NES Member
Rating - 100%
5   0   0
Joined
May 27, 2008
Messages
10,283
Likes
6,545
Location
North Central Mass
I just saw something that scares the crap out of me.



COPPER BARS?

Do we all remember the history books on the Fall of the Roman Empire? Gold and Silver coins became worth too much so they started making Copper & Bronze coins?
 

richc

NES Member
Rating - 100%
36   0   0
Joined
Oct 21, 2008
Messages
17,968
Likes
32,356
Location
metrowest
I just saw something that scares the crap out of me.



COPPER BARS?

Do we all remember the history books on the Fall of the Roman Empire? Gold and Silver coins became worth too much so they started making Copper & Bronze coins?
Spot price of copper is about 19 cents/ounce. The markup is HUGE!

Or buy a ton of copper for $6200 on the spot market.
 

Reptile

NES Member
Rating - 100%
104   0   0
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
17,333
Likes
6,930
Most American Families are Deep in Debt and Living Paycheck to Paycheck

Most American Families are Deep in Debt and Living Paycheck to Paycheck Coming into this year, most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck and were very deep in debt. That works okay as long as the paychecks keep coming in, but once they stop things can take a disastrous turn very quickly. Today, the average American has accumulated $90,460 in debt, and Generation X is drowning in more debt than anyone else…Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EqhQhtMnoQ&feature=emb_logo


 

Varmint

NES Member
Rating - 100%
9   0   0
Joined
Jul 5, 2014
Messages
15,421
Likes
7,550
Location
North Shore, MA
Interesting chart - in every case in history, the stock market returned to the red line eventually.

That means the S&P500 should return to 1300 at some point in the next few years.

While interesting, I don't think it's meaningful - the Fed has changed the game, and won't allow the S&P500 to drop more than 10-15% before stepping in to prop it up. That wasn't true any time in the past.

 

GM-GUY

NES Member
Rating - 100%
5   0   0
Joined
May 27, 2008
Messages
10,283
Likes
6,545
Location
North Central Mass
I know I’m concerned enough that I’m paying off 0% Credit Card offers early. Chase/Amazon, 0% for 6,12,18,24 months based on how much you spend. Then you pay the ‘Interest Savings Balance’ to get it all paid on time. Anyway, I’ve been throwing extra at it - no way I want ANY debt with what’s coming.
 
Top Bottom