Economic "Doom" Mega thread

Varmint

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If u buy a treasury at 95 and it matures at par you made 5%
You're talking about short term Treasuries no? Looks to me like the discounts are like on the order of 0.29 to 1.5%, not 5%.

It's like a money market - which includes a lot of short-term Treasuries and pays out like 2%/year. I'm not saying don't use money markets, I'm saying don't buy long-term Treasuries thinking they're safe.
 

Chevy 2 65

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mibro

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Buy when there's blood on the streets. As long as the company can survive the next 3 months w/out going bankrupt or diluting their shares to nothing, it's probably a good time to buy.

Also it's good to buy now, in a few days you may not have the nerve, also when it does turn, it'll turn so fast it's easy to miss it.
Thanks. I can hardly believe this opportunity exists. It seems unreal. Shell was $60 in January.

Locking in a 19% dividend yield is an insane opportunity.
 

Varmint

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Most people will piss away that 1k in a few days. Retail will get a very brief spike and then it's over.

More prudent would be making interest free loans to small business to float them thru until this is over. Most taxpayers dont need a thousand dollars.
Many of the parents in our school got laid off this week. They could certainly use $1000. Many have jobs that don't qualify for unemployment either. And all the small business owners are screwed - but yeah, I think the bill includes loans or handouts to small businesses.

But this bill is coming out of Congress, they'll screw it up somehow.
 

Varmint

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Thanks. I can hardly believe this opportunity exists. It seems unreal. Shell was $60 in January.

Locking in a 19% dividend yield is an insane opportunity.
The dividend can be reduced, but still yeah, there are some great opportunities - margin traders are selling at ANY price, and there are no buyers - so prices can freefall to cash value and below.
 

Varmint

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Thanks. I can hardly believe this opportunity exists. It seems unreal. Shell was $60 in January.

Locking in a 19% dividend yield is an insane opportunity.
They say buy when the thought of buying makes you sick to your stomach. That's definitely the case right now for oil stocks.
 

Reptile

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From September 2019...
Many years ago somebody made a video of economic doom and collapse after "QE4".

Fast forward and now there really is QE4.

Now might be the time to dump stocks and buy gold.

I am not a financial adviser, nor did I sleep in a Holiday Inn last night.
Visualizing Central Bank Gold Buying And Gold Repatriation
 

Yazz

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So there's a pattern repeating the last week.
A central bank announces a $500-750 billion QE program.
Stocks go up 5%, then down 10%.
This has repeated like 3 times. Another 12 times and stocks will be zero, and we'll have $10 trillion more debt on the books.
There is something else going on here.
 

Reptile

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Futures down 4%...


I wonder if Trump will drive it back up with his comments tomorrow.



Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

As Republican and democrat politicians hold emergency meetings to decide how to avoid a meltdown of Wall Street, the smell of hyperinflation looms in the air as much today as it did in Germany during the opening months of 1922. This week, markets were propped up by a record breaking offering of $1.5 Trillion in liquidity injections over the coming months (added to the $9 trillion already injected over the past six months), and rather than deal with the real reasons for this oncoming financial collapse, the media has brainwashed the west that everything would have been just fine, “if only coronavirus had not become a pandemic”.
 
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clampett

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Peter Schiff has been predicting all this stuff for like 11 years. He must have the biggest boner right now. Can't wait to hear his podcast.
Back in 2008 someone posted a video on youtube titled " Peter Schiff was right" The video was a collection of all the TV financial talking heads laughing at Peter as Peter was warning them about the impending financial crisis.
 

drgrant

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Thanks. I can hardly believe this opportunity exists. It seems unreal. Shell was $60 in January.

Locking in a 19% dividend yield is an insane opportunity.
So how does one buy this shit? [laugh] Oil futures or something?

-Mike
 

mibro

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So how does one buy this shit? [laugh] Oil futures or something?

-Mike
Any broker or with Fidelity, etc.

Royal Dutch Shell - RDSB
Exxon Mobil - XOM

I think XOM is bulletproof but there's a remote chance RDS might need a bailout from the UK and Dutch governments.
 

Varmint

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Back in 2008 someone posted a video on youtube titled " Peter Schiff was right" The video was a collection of all the TV financial talking heads laughing at Peter as Peter was warning them about the impending financial crisis.
His last podcast was good, no gloating- but a big part of his thesis is so far wrong, dollar is going up and Europe is imploding so his funds aren't doing well. We'll see if he's right in the long run, I hope not.
 

xtry51

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His original thesis doesn't really apply to this Black Swan. Mostly because it is destabilizing Europe first and his premise was the dollar would erode before other currencies.

He's right that you need to watch debt, QE and monetization. Then avoid those doing it the most to protect purchasing power.

In order to invest in this current reality you need to accurately predict which countries will have what viral loads and hospitalization rates at least a year out. I dont think that is viable and you end up guessing.

At this point any long term investor should either hunker down and pray that this too shall pass or get out now into harder assets while your basically net even for the last 3 years.

If you short term or mid term trade there is more opportunity now than ever with volume and volatility being so high.
 

GM-GUY

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Rand Paul, Mike Lee and a couple others are trying to stop the stupidity. Like if we are going to spend $1T, maybe find a way to pay for it and don’t build socialist give away programs that don’t go away - ever into these bills.
 
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So how does one buy this shit? [laugh] Oil futures or something?

-Mike
Go to a broker app (I use Merrill). I have shell to buy at $9.00. I love all the warnings that pop up (OMG, that's lower than 25% current market value, are you sure?). Yeah buddy, just let it sit there.

I also have AAL at $10. But I am debating canceling that and making it $8.

And I have a few others placed and waiting to execute.
 

GM-GUY

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Glenn Beck was on the derivatives market today. $1.5Q out there (Q=Quadrillion) Most bets between investment houses and banks, and don’t forget the insurance on the bet not counted in the above.

With this and the fact The FED has been pumping into the overnight REPO market and it didn’t help, and that now banks need no cash in the vault (forget about that 10% fractional reserve system it’s now 0%)

I opted to make a run to ATM with my son, he drove (he just got his license so he can’t go get stuff like a typical kid at this point). I wiped the machine with a Clorox wipe, got my $500. I already had $5K in $100’s that I’ve had for a decade, got some $20’s with no human interaction.
 

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It's almost like a banking cabal took over the whole world to enslave us with paper coupons.
Or, you know, we have actual qualified public servants and central bankers who know (for the most part) what they're actually doing.

We were much better off before we had a Fed - but yeah, at this point, the Fed is like a crossbow bolt in our chest - pull it out and we bleed out in minutes.

TIPS use an artificially low inflation number - it doesn't protect you from real inflation.

And yeah, we've never defaulted on our debt. But the last week we've done things nobody ever thought we would do. Trillion dollar handouts? Trillion dollar a year Treasury debt monetization?

With Treasury bonds you give today's dollars to the government, and in 10 years, you'll get worthless dollars back.
What is "real inflation", exactly?

I agree w.r.t. doing things we've never done, but we're in an unprecedented crisis. But that's nothing compared to defaulting on our debts.

Defaulting on our debts is the Coronavirus equivalent of "Just let all the sick people die and we'll start over". Yeah, you'll eliminate the problem, but what will we be left with?
 
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