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Economic "Doom" Mega thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Reptile, Sep 20, 2009.

  1. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    but here's a problem:
    GDP for Q1 was supposedly 3.2% BUT
    Credit card debt totaled $1.061 trillion, increasing 3.3% JUST IN FEBRUARY alone. So Americans are getting deeper in debt than the rate of GDP. Because the economy is built a credit. Smoke and Mirrors.
     
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  2. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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  3. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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  4. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Fed today says "No rate cut for you!"

    Of course watch the S&P drop 10% and they'll change their tune real fast.
     
  5. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    well, the FED claims that inflation in Q1 was only 0.9%. Meanwhile cost of oil increased by 50%.
     
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  6. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Yeah and the official GDP number was 3.2% cause of that “surprisingly” low 0.9% inflator number. If they used a more real inflation number like 4%, we’d be at negative GDP growth.

    The only surprise is that Americans don’t realize it’s all fake.
     
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  7. Win

    Win NES Member

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    +1
     
  8. EC1

    EC1 NES Member

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    due to volatility oil and several other items were removed from the inflation numbers. While not the best solution, it does eliminate the effects that were evident in the 70's like the oil embargo and the more recent trend of a "fuel surcharges". If these were included the inflation rates would look more like a timber saw than a smoothed curve, it would also mean that when the oil prices dropped below ~35$/bbl a while back we would have shone negative inflation rates instead of the near zero reported for several quarters.
     
  9. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Yeah but why do they also remove health care costs, tuition, housing, rent, bank fees, fine art, PMs, food, and everything that might increase the official number and raise the cost of financing all that government debt?

    Oh sorry, I answered my own question.

    Even the stuff they put in the official number is fake. Like car prices, which go down every year according to the Fed . They justify it by saying you get more features. GDP numbers are adjusted by this made up inflation number. Real GDP growth is negative if you use older calculation when the government didn’t need to fake the numbers.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2019
  10. EC1

    EC1 NES Member

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    Agree with your last couple of lines, but have not seen anythjng which says car prices are decreasing? unless they're talking about the cost of operating a vehicle, which is a joke if you have an older car and have any repairs done.
     
  11. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    The chart here shows how the Fed calculates the inflation in new vehicles. See how the price of new vehicles stopped rising right around the time of the financial crisis, when the Fed started looking for ways to keep down the official inflation numbers (so they could keep interest rates low).

    The average price of a new vehicle kept rising (now $36k!), so how did they come up with this flat curve? They adjusted the price of new vehicles down, by saying you're getting more content for your dollars.

    Every component of the official inflation number is manipulated in the same manner. Magazines for example - the Fed averages in the price of blogs (free!) to the price of store magazines, in order to keep the magazines price component of the CPI from rising.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. rocket500

    rocket500 NES Member

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    Hi! This thread is in its 10th year. The economy is still burping and farting along.
     
  13. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    10 years ago, even us nutcases could never have predicted the global central banks would create $22 trillion out of thin air to prop up the markets.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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    Do you, or does anybody, have the old calculations, with the correct numbers for present day equivalent, in order to do a "true comparison"?
     
  15. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    Try Claiming America Is "Booming" After Reading These 19 Facts About Our Current Economic Performance


    The following are 19 facts about our current economic performance that should deeply disturb all of us…

    #1 In April, U.S. auto sales were down 6.1 percent. That was the worst decline in 8 years.

    #2 The number of mortgage applications has fallen for four weeks in a row.

    #3 We just witnessed the largest crash in luxury home sales in about 9 years.

    #4 Existing home sales have now fallen for 13 months in a row.

    #5 In March, total residential construction spending was down 8.4 percent from a year ago.

    #6 U.S. manufacturing output was down 1.1 percent during the first quarter of this year.

    #7 Farm incomes are falling at the fastest pace since 2016.

    #8 Wisconsin dairy farmers are going bankrupt “in record numbers”.

    #9 Apple iPhone sales are falling at a “record pace”.

    #10 Facebook’s profits have declined for the first time since 2015.

    #11 We just learned that CVS will be closing 46 stores.

    #12 Office Depot has announced that they will be closing 50 locations.

    #13 Overall, U.S. retailers have announced more than 6,000 store closings so far in 2019, and that means we have already surpassed the total for all of last year.

    #14 A shocking new study has discovered that 137 million Americans have experienced “medical financial hardship in the past year”.

    #15 Credit card charge-offs at U.S. banks have risen to the highest level in nearly 7 years.

    #16 Credit card delinquencies have risen to the highest level in almost 8 years.

    #17 More than half a million Americans are homeless right now.

    #18 Homelessness in New York City is the worst that it has ever been.

    #19 Nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now. That number is worse than it was at any point during the last recession.
     
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  16. rocket500

    rocket500 NES Member

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    It’s a whole new world, I’ll admit to that. But it chugs on.

     
  17. xtry51

    xtry51 NES Member

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    I'm not seeing a slowdown in manufacturing. Quite the opposite. Everyone is saying things were slightly lower Jan, but Feb/March/April all strong. My company's sales are up again YoY 5% right now in North America (90% of which is US sales).

    Our tradeshows have been well attended and busy. We have Eastec in MA coming up week after next. I expect it to be busy.
     
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  18. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    $22 trillion in global stimulus can inflate stock & bond markets and assets to incredible levels, but it can't really help the bottom 2/3rds of America, who don't own much stocks, bonds or real estate (or fine art, collectible Ferraris etc).

    You do get a lot of trickle down effects as the top 10% buy cars, homes etc w/ all their capital gains, and that can keep the economy muddling along at 0% growth (which the Fed doctors to read 3%).

    Clearly the end is near, look how the Fed could only raise interest rates to 2.37% before it started to break the stock market. That's not good.
     
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  19. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1

    New orders, production and employment are all down in manufacturing. But still growing, just slower?
     
  20. xtry51

    xtry51 NES Member

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    My company expanded payroll by over $2M in the past 8 months. Our projection for this year is 5-10% growth.
     
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  21. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    that's awesome. doesn't actually mean the rest of the economy is doing that well though.

    we all tend to look at just what we are feeling. Honestly, if I went by our own personal circumstances I would be posting everything opposite of what I have been sharing. Here in TX, the city we live in is growing very fast. Of course this is pushing prices up on housing. We have the highest cost of housing in the state (home ownership, all related costs).

    We also have some of the best job growth here. While wages have been growing YoY, according to the latest reports, of between 0.9% - 3.0%+, my husband switched companies and gained an 19% increase in wages, not accounting for lost paid time off. He also just applied to another job (would be great if he gets it) that would increase his current pay by 30%, making it a total increase of 63% in the course of a few months (unknown if he would regain his paid time off). It would be wrong to assume that others were experiencing this type of wage growth or even that they have the potential to experience it in their locality.

    But I don't assume everyone else is doing as well as we are. quite the opposite. When I look at national reports I consider that the "averages" are being dragged up by areas like this. While housing is still strong here, the overall averages don't show that. That means that for as strong as it is here, there has to be at least 1 area where it's tanking, possibly more. and so on....
     
  22. xtry51

    xtry51 NES Member

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    My industry is a lagging indicator given I work in capital equipment. I was just pointing out that as of now there has been no significant slowdown in either sales or ability to obtain capital for expansion.
     
  23. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    having capital available to expand is a great indicator. I know back in '08, '09 we ended up with QE because $ was not moving as it should be. (at least that's one reason). I'm curious what type of equipment y'all sell. Is it equipment that helps manufacture other products? Durable goods or other?
     
  24. xtry51

    xtry51 NES Member

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    Waterjets.
     
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  25. richc

    richc NES Member

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  26. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    The latest alarm signal that the US economy remains on collision course with a recession, and that the US consumer remains especially burdened by debt and challenged by cash flows despite the record high in the stock market, came after today's release of the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) by the Federal Reserve, which was conducted for bank lending activity during the first quarter of 2019, and which reported that while lending standards and terms for commercial and industrial loans remained largely unchanged from already generously easy levels, demand for those loans tumbled to levels not seen since the financial crisis. Even more concerning is that banks also reported weaker demand for both commercial and residential real estate loans for the second quarter in a row, echoing the softer housing data in recent months.

    More Alarm Bells As Banks Report Lowest Loan Demand Since Financial Crisis
     
  27. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    The Economy's Blood Pressure Is Falling

    Similarly, the economy is probably sick when its circulatory system slows down. You don’t need a blood pressure gauge to know it, either. Just count how many trucks you see on the highway.
     
  28. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    At some point people can't consume more debt, even if the rate is very low. Peter Schiff likened it to a family at a restaurant, who just ate a big meal. The waiter offers another meal, and they say they're too full. He offers them a meal at half price, and they still refuse, so he says they can eat again for free, and the family says "we're full."
     
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  29. EvilDragon

    EvilDragon NES Member

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    This is it with auto sales. Everybody I know has a new car, I bought 4 new cars in the last 6 years. Interstates around Boston are clogged. They can't fit more new cars on the roads anymore.
     
  30. djbradles

    djbradles NES Member

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    Why the used vehicles here in NE are of higher mileage and more expensive is beyond me. They rot faster too....despicable.
     

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