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Economic "Doom" Mega thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Reptile, Sep 20, 2009.

  1. xtry51

    xtry51 NES Member

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    Honestly I am hoping to see some staving off of this until after the election. The dems are getting hammered right now for AOC and Mueller. I dont want them latching onto a downturn as a means to victory. If they do it'll mean all sorts of taxes/handout programs.
     
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  2. SBD

    SBD

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    Scary.
    By fall I can either build up a healthy emergency fund or pay off my car. I think the emergency/house fund gets priority this year.
     
  3. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    This stock market ignores all bad news, and the yield curve will be no different. It thinks, and it’s right, that the Fed will do anything it can to prevent a market correction. Yes, not just a crash, the Fed will step in to stop even a correction.

    So the only question is can the Fed stop a market correction when the economy is in recession and earnings are tanking. This would require trillions in stimulus, with the Fed buying bonds, stocks, bailing out cities and states etc.

    It would seem obvious this would cause inflation, but like the last 10 years, the inflation might be in (ironically) stocks, bonds, real estate, as well as cost of health care, college costs, etc.

    The end result will probably be something horrible, but the route there will be spectacular.
     
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  4. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    I think the theory the Fed was trying to crash the markets on Trump’s watch are wrong, given the complete 180 they did this year. They’ll keep the stock market inflated as long as they can, and you won’t get a recession with trillions being pumped into the markets.
     
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  5. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    mortgage rates have fallen 70 basis points in the last 4 months and yet housing starts are still down. sales are slowing and I expect foreclosures will start climbing soon.
     
  6. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    Larger than normal amount of notices in my local newspapers.
     
  7. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    There are two things also impacting housing besides the rates. China has cracked down on people taking their cash out of the country. Now it's hard for Chinese to bring cash over to buy US houses, so in markets like NYC or the Bay Area, sales are crashing. And the Trump tax changes are driving people to switch from deducting their mortage to taking the standard deduction.
     
  8. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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    Where? Most places I know, housing is going bananas. Can't get a contractor to even unclog a drain for 3 weeks out. Impossible to find someone to do some windows.
     
  9. headednorth

    headednorth NES Member

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    Brother in law works for BoA. He's been working Saturdays for years. Every once in a while Ill ask my sis for his take on the housing market and according to him theres no slow down in sight yet, for Eastern MA at least. Boston and suburbs theres not enough units to meet demand so prices arent expected to be dropping any time soon.
     
  10. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index, which measures signed contracts for homes where transactions have not yet closed, fell 1.0% to a reading of 101.9.

    That was compared to a gain of 4.3% in January.

    Economists had forecast pending home sales rising 0.1% last month.

    U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Unexpectedly in February
     
  11. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    United States Housing Starts | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

    Housing starts in the US fell 8.7 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,162 thousand units in February 2019, following a downwardly revised 11.7 percent surge in January. It was the largest decline in housing starts since last June, as construction of single-family homes dropped to more than a 1-1/2-year low.

    Let's see what happens for March "starts."
     
  12. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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    These Are The Six Countries With The World's Largest Gold Reserves

    For almost a decade, global central banks have been avid gold buyers. Gold purchases by central banks in 2018 rose 36 percent over the previous year. Central banks are now holding 366 tons of the yellow metal. These gold purchases are the largest since 1971 when President Nixon ceased the gold standard and the tie between the U.S. dollar and gold, which rapidly led to the devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

    [​IMG]

    Not every central bank has followed this trend. Venezuela, which is in the midst of an economic collapse, sold 25 tons of gold in 2018 in an attempt to repay its debts. But Venezuela is an exception. Other central banks are eager to increase their gold reserves as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Gold ownership by central banks is at a 50-year high as global purchases have increased 75 percent over the past year.

    These Are The Six Countries With The World's Largest Gold Reserves

     
  13. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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  14. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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    Why Russia Is Dumping Dollars And Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In Decades

    Nine months ago, as US Treasury yields were drifting lower from a seven-year high reached in May of last year, we pointed out a curious development in the market for US sovereign debt that to our complete lack of surprise had been overlooked by the mainstream financial press: In April and May, Russia's central bank liquidated $81 billion in Treasurys, nearly its entire holdings.

    The drop was so significant, that Russia fell off the Treasurys list of the 30 or so largest Treasury holders. And in the months that have followed, as the US has imposed more economic sanctions and feuded with Putin over the fate of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, Vladimir Putin has turned instead to alternative reserves as the country's de-dollarization push continued.

    Over the same period of time, Russia was a conspicuously large buyer of Chinese yuan, as Goldman Sachs noted (and as we highlighted well earlier today), helping contribute to a spike in yuan buying by reserve managers last year, as the IMF pointed out in a recent report.

    Why Russia Is Dumping Dollars And Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In Decades
     
  15. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    The yuan, the yen, and the Euro are even more doomed than the dollar, cause those countries are pumping stimulus even more than we are. Peter schiff is just way ahead of himself- the global currencies will crash before ours.
     
  16. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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  17. Prepper

    Prepper NES Member

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    I like Peter Schiff, but the problem with him is that he's a perma-bear. We're always doomed, any moment now, no matter what. That isn't useful when trying to figure out where to store some net worth. Sure, in the long run, all that stuff will come true and we're doomed. Meanwhile, I need a better idea for where to put wealth other than "just buy gold", which is a sucky idea if its going to stagnate for another 10+ years.
     
  18. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Most of Schiff's products are based on the theory of dollar collapse, so he sells funds that are emerging markets, European companies etc, which would benefit if the dollar tanks.

    The problem is the dollar isn't going to go down if the house of cards collapses, it's going to go up, as all the world's bad debts go bad, and they have to buy dollars to pay them off. If his scenario comes true, you don't want to own the stuff he's selling. Except for gold. But gold just doesn't have any leverage, that's why i'd rather own gold and silver miners.
     
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  19. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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    US GOVERNMENT’S NET WORTH: NEGATIVE $21.5 TRILLION
    Gov’s main asset is debt owed to it by young Americans

    The net worth of the US comes in at negative $21.5 trillion.

    This according to the Financial Report of the United States Government recently released by the Treasury Department.

    The report is a summary of the financial condition of the United States. In a nutshell, it’s less than ideal.

    Total net worth — the country’s assets minus its liabilities — is just one of many disturbing data points you will find in the report.

    US Government’s Net Worth: Negative $21.5 Trillion
     
  20. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    Are we getting to the point where it can’t be hidden anymore? We a budget that needs to be done in another couple months - but of course it will be a last minute multi-thousand page mess of a CR that no one will read.
     
  21. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
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  22. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    worst housing starts in since 2017. but everything is fine
    U.S. housing starts fall in March to weakest pace since 2017
    U.S. new-home construction unexpectedly fell in March, decelerating to the slowest pace since May 2017 and suggesting builders remain wary even as lower mortgage rates and steady wage gains offer support to consumers.
     
  23. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Like a driver getting drowsy at the wheel, they are trying to juice the economy to keep it going. The trump tax cuts staved off the recession for a year, and the Fed capitulation may put it off another year. Next the Fed will cut rates and start up a QE program, and the world federal reserve banks will do the same. That’ll juice the markets but may not do much for the economy.

    It’s after that that things will get real interesting!
     
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  24. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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  25. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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  26. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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  27. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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  28. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    I heard Trump admitted to being guilty of being a great president. While I agree he’s doing a better job than the last two - too much spending is going to destroy us.

    I’ll leave this quote here; “Pride goeth before a fall.” Londo Mollari, Centauri Republic (B5)
     
  29. Waher

    Waher NES Member

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    Yeah I'm going to call bullshit that everything was f***ing unicorns and rainbows under Obama at the peak of the post 2008 collapse compared to the employment situation today. This is probably the best economy I can remember since the 1980s.
     
  30. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

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    not claiming that was all rainbows after 2008 but Trump railed against the "fake unemployment numbers" when he was candidate Trump but now he takes the number as solid gold. when in reality we have very little difference in the actual number of people working.
     
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