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Economic "Doom" Mega thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Reptile, Sep 20, 2009.

  1. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    I must have missed the big news that caused a 5% one day jump in the markets.

    Trade war over?
    Govt open?
    Fed freezing rates?
     
  2. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    I’m the blind squirrel that found a nut.

    Seriously though, as I predicted all the big money was waiting to buy at the huge support level of 2350. Nothing’s changed this is just a technical bounce. I think it’ll go up another 5% and run out of steam, maybe breaking through 2350 in January barring some big news event.
     
  3. bullseye

    bullseye

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    2350 just got a buffer, short lived!
     
  4. bullseye

    bullseye

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    It was end of year pension load blows, BTFD for pension funds. Sort of like the hope the ship doesn't go down and the main mast has crashed through the hull.
     
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  5. T-Unit

    T-Unit

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    I was visiting family today and spoke to my aunt, who is a VP for investments and such for a regional credit union, and asked her how the economy is doing and her response was a recession is forecast for 2020, but 2019 should be a good year as the interest rates were a short term hike, and long term interest rates are still unchanged. Also said economy could do better if wages increased, but employers aren't giving raises because it hurts the company bottom line, but IMO the reason wages aren't going up is immigrant/foriegn labor. When you can hire an Indian at half what you can hire an American, you're forcing American's to either accept less or be underemployed.

    The 2020 date sounds right to me as most recessions happen during presidential election years.
     
  6. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    The bulls aren’t going to give up that easy, look at today’s reversal.

    But I think yesterday’s 116 pt rally is exactly the kind of huge rally you see in bear markets. The medium and long term term trend is down.
     
  7. Junior314

    Junior314 NES Member

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    I don’t know much about the economy or the stock market but I don’t know that your aunt who works for a regional credit union has any idea what she is talking about when she says people aren’t getting raises. Raises hurting the bottom line hasn’t changed because of the economy. Higher payroll always equals higher expenses regardless of the state of the economy. I personally don’t value the opinions of bankers. They have a vested interest in people being in debt.

    PART (not all) of that has to do with companies that import materials, supplies etc. from China that were feeling the weight of the tariffs. I know the company I work for was planning on opening an additional 100 locations in 2019 but they scaled that back to 90 and they just sent out market wage increases for a bunch of hourly employees and mid level management. I received both a raise and a bonus as did my wife and neither of us are executives where we work.

    Buddy of mine was laid off and just found a job paying significantly more. The current job market is in favor of the labor because of the low unemployment. Companies are having a hard time finding people to fill vacancies.

    That’s my .02 anyways.
     
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  8. T-Unit

    T-Unit

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    Sears looks to be hours away from going into liquidation if no one steps up to invest in the retail brand. If no bids come in, Sears is gone for good and so are the 68k people employed by the company.
     
  9. xtry51

    xtry51

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    Sears has been "saved" temporarily.
     
  10. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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    NEARLY HALF OF STUDENT LOANS “IN DISTRESS”
    Student loan bubble now over $1.5 trillion

    Student loan debt has grown to over $1.5 trillion.

    And that just accounts for loans held by Federal Student Aid. It doesn’t include private loans. Meanwhile, the Department of Education says 43% of those government-backed loans are considered “in distress.”

    In a speech last month, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos put the current level of student debt in perspective.

    “One-point-five trillion dollars is almost impossible to fathom. So, let me put it this way: $1.5 trillion is more than $10,000 of someone else’s student loan debt for each and every American taxpayer—145 million of them.”

    Most people saddled with this debt aren’t paying it off. According to DeVos, fewer than a quarter of student loan borrowers are paying down their principal. Most are simply making interest payment — if they are paying anything at all. Nearly 20% of all loans are delinquent or in default. That’s seven times the rate of delinquency on credit card debt, according to DeVos. Nearly 43% of all loans are currently considered “in distress.”

    For many borrowers, their debt is actually increasing over time. CNBC provides this anecdotal case.

    Nearly Half of Student Loans “in Distress”
     
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  11. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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  12. richc

    richc NES Member

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    I believe Dr. Paul is spot on... and that's frightening...

     
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  13. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    Ron Paul would be a great President, if we can’t have that perhaps Treasury Secretary.

    We all know the road is ending, how and when are the only questions.

    Interest rates will be the trigger as so much leveraging has gone on.
     
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  14. richc

    richc NES Member

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    I've noticed a number of folks talking about gold recently. Folks who in the past nary mentioned gold or suggested maybe a very token amount in the portfolio as a hedge.

    The economic skies are very cloudy right now with a strong chance of unsettled weather...

    IMHO, of course.

     
  15. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Gold, silver and the larger gold mining stocks are the only thing going up the last few months. But all three need to break through resistance to get anywhere.

    What’s interesting is gold etc are moving up on both good and bad days for the stock market.
     
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  16. T-Unit

    T-Unit

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    I've been watching the precious metals since 2006, the past few years they haven't been moving, Silver especially. Platinum has actually gone down in price, but IMO that's been orchestrated due to sanctions and market manipulation on the largest producer of those metals... Russia.

    I was a dumb 20 year old when I bought a few ounces of Silver at $50/oz. I didn't know what a bubble was until a year later when it had dropped to $35/oz. Now it's not even $16/oz. Now is the time to buy Ag. Can it go lower? Yes, we the recession happened Silver dropped to $8/oz, but it doesn't go lower than that.

    Palladium has been the most active and volatile precious metal for the past decade; it's lowest low is about $200-250, and it's highest spike is usually $1200. Right now it's at $1200 and you'd be a fool to buy any of it. Platinum is ripe for an explosion. It's as low as it's been since 2004 and to look at any precious metal in 2018/2019 and say that it's at the same levels as 15 years ago is astounding. Gold is nearly triple what it was 15 years ago, Silver is double, but can't say the same for Platinum.
     
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  17. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    I stay away from the industrial metals that are dependent on economics and technology trends, and stick with the metals that historically act as money, silver and gold. Cause I think the only sure thing in this world is our governments will keep borrowing and spending, watering down all the fiat currencies.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
  18. richc

    richc NES Member

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    At one time borrowing was done to boost the economy in down times, and then paid back in good times. Kinda like us consumers might do if we had a bad patch.

    Now borrowing/deficit spending is the norm. And just like us consumers there's only so much we can get away with.

    The difference is lenders shut off us consumers early and often if our credit scores drop and debt balances get too big. Governments can literally "mint" money with a keystroke. Yes, at some point the world lenders will want their money back, especially if/when the US dollar weakens significantly.

    Problem is that basically all world economies are doing the same thing with debt. And that there will be the end of the road...



     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
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  19. xtry51

    xtry51

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    There's some money stampeding to the "safety" of treasuries today. The long term yields are getting clobbered
     
  20. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Junior mining stocks which haven’t moved on montha are finally moving up, as gold and silver try to break above resistance at $1300 gold and $16 silver. Very bullish sign, it means real money is going into the sector, not just preppers and gold permabulls.

    But I fear they might fail to go above those levels and head south.

    Today’s big slide in stocks was low volume, I suspect it’s traders sending a message to the Fed before Powell’s update tomorrow.
     
  21. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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  22. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    US to borrow $1 Trillion again this year - I remember when $1 Trillion in total debt under Reagan was considered a lot - debt ceiling going up again for sure
    Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

    While we are talking about Trillions
    Consumers $1 Trillion More In Debt In Just 5 Years

    Citizens in the US have borrowed (and outstanding) another $1 Trillion over the last 5 years and non-mortgage debt is going to exceed $4 Trillion shortly.


    Its amazing that things continue, 10 years ago if someone was to tell the world that these would be the numbers - a crash would have occurred with most fiat currencies disappearing, now - meh, it keeps going - it's fine...… UNTIL IT'S NOT.
     
  23. richc

    richc NES Member

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    Gold above $1310...
     
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  24. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    McConnell cane out today and has some plan to keep Trump from declaring an emergency and keeping the govt open. Shocking - RINO torpedoing Trump & The Wall.

    My real issue is he talked about ‘The Budget’ and making sure it gets passed to keep the govt open.

    YOU LYING SACK OF SHIT a budget hasn’t been done since GWB. You keep doing CRs and piecemeal funding - DO A BUDGET, see what happens.
     
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  25. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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    No, I want them to do a BUDGET-budget. You know start at $0, and build the budget from there, justifying EVERYTHING. Even Massachusetts does a balanced budget.
     
  26. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    A budget is required by code, but they’ve been going on a wink and a smile for over a decade. They can’t actually do a real budget with all the numbers in one place - the world will scream “The Emporer has no Clothes”.

    They promised in 2016 to do one and didn’t / we all know why.
     
  27. rocket500

    rocket500 NES Member

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    You’d get the yellow vests USA version. Not that I think that would be all bad.
     
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  28. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Silver needs to break above $16 imo for the gold breakout to be real.

    This is all in anticipation of Fed dovish speak tomorrow, but with stocks up strongly I don’t think the Fed is going to say anything new or different, and PMs will sell off. I took some profits in miners today in hope of getting back in cheaper.
     
  29. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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    You got your wish...

    Silver at $16. Gold at $1,313.
     
  30. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    They need to break above that though, we’ll see after the Fed meeting today at 2:30. Markets seem to expect dovish Fed speak, if they don’t get it, down we go.
     

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