1. If you enjoy the forum please consider supporting it by signing up for a NES Membership  The benefits pay for the membership many times over.

Economic "Doom" Mega thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Reptile, Sep 20, 2009.

  1. Woodsy

    Woodsy NES Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2009
    Messages:
    3,508
    Likes Received:
    990
    Location:
    Methuen Area
    I think the market will dip more, that’s where I will buy and do a tripling stops loss. I’ll grt out once it bumps up but then I think we are in for a whopper of a correction and just as I did in2008 I will buy when people are running. That’s the Warren buffet model
     

  2. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    I think we'll see a big bounce around S&P 2350. So far there's no panic in this correction though, and I think everyone is waiting for a bottom at 2350-2400. If it breaks down through 2350 you'll see a real panic, but I think there will be a big rally before that.
     
  3. Woodsy

    Woodsy NES Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2009
    Messages:
    3,508
    Likes Received:
    990
    Location:
    Methuen Area
    I see us going below 2000 in the next correction. Ton of debt out there including 1.3 trillion in college loans and the default rates are climbing. Interest rates have been super low for years yet if you look at the fundamentals the performance of the top 500 is not exactly stellar. We will see how this ride goes.
     
  4. quincy

    quincy NES Member

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2011
    Messages:
    1,954
    Likes Received:
    394
    Location:
    Quincy MA
    Another big contributor to the free fall is all the margin calls from accounts that will be wiped clean. If have made a big gain always protect it with a put option.
     
  5. Coyote33

    Coyote33

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2005
    Messages:
    22,560
    Likes Received:
    2,199
    Also the computer algorithms, which are relatively new over the lifetime of the stock market.
     
  6. headednorth

    headednorth NES Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    Messages:
    8,818
    Likes Received:
    4,167
    T-Unit and Jason Flare like this.
  7. richc

    richc NES Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    12,589
    Likes Received:
    4,710
    Location:
    metro west
    clampett, mibro and Jason Flare like this.
  8. headednorth

    headednorth NES Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    Messages:
    8,818
    Likes Received:
    4,167
    Im sure all is well
    [​IMG]
     
    mibro likes this.
  9. T-Unit

    T-Unit

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    814
    Likes Received:
    492

    I was 17 at the time and knew they weren't. I remember when they collapsed in March, I was taking Economics my senior year and we had a guest speaker that week who was a retirement fund manager or something and I asked him about Bear Sterns and he went on a 15 minute spiel about how the market was fine. I mean, he didn't need to go for 15 mins in a high school classroom to eventually say "all is good, move along" but he did and I've found that the longer you have to explain something, the more you're trying to cover something up.

    And 6 months later, we had the start of what became the Great Recession.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2018
    warpig, NHCraigT, yogi and 4 others like this.
  10. T-Unit

    T-Unit

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    814
    Likes Received:
    492
    Anyway, I'm not hip to what the issues are right now, but it's not that money is tight and lending is a problem (although the interest rate hike doesn't help) it's more to do with consumer confidence. People are hesitant to spend money right now, I know I am (even tho I just spent $90 for Christmas stuff and $60 on antifreeze). I just don't see my wages going up and I don't see better jobs being offered and Idk what's going on with the new tax structure... I'm sure I'm not alone in that.

    I do know that my employer's are going to be getting taxed more on their property with SALT taxes not being deductible anymore. Since they'll have less money to invest, even come Spring, I don't think they'll be hiring anybody and I'm sure they're not the only ones.

    This current correction, IMO, is being driven by the consumer and it'll be confirmed when Q4 earnings all fail to meet expectations.
     
    warpig likes this.
  11. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2007
    Messages:
    10,112
    Likes Received:
    2,592
    Location:
    Texas
    SALT deductions apply to "individual" taxpayers, not businesses. So the business is still deducting all the business expenses which would include all real estate taxes on business owned property. Unlike being able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes on a personal home under the new rules (or being limited on how much you can deduct).

    Consumers, in general, are spending more money. In fact they are spending more money than they have and using more credit than ever before. Is this a sign of confidence or desperation? The usage of credit that is. I don't know. Certainly it will be a bad thing if jobs start crashing.
     
    jpk and Jason Flare like this.
  12. T-Unit

    T-Unit

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    814
    Likes Received:
    492
    Neither, convenience. You get more back in rewards using credit cards than you do debit, not to mention better security service.

    Personally, leaving out the $200 on gifts, I'm buying what I need right now, the end of my unnecessary buying was in November for Black Friday sales and two revolvers that I got a special deffered interest on and don't have to pay off until Summer 2020. Yes, I'll still pay for my range membership next year, maybe two scopes I've been saving for, and a Heritage .22 revolver, but those purchases will be a few hundred bucks, which isn't much compared to what I've spent in years prior or earlier this year.

    So, it's not a crash, it's just a slow down and even if I get a grand back in taxes come Spring, it's still not going to get me pumped to go blow it haphazardly like economists want.
     
  13. ASHDUMP

    ASHDUMP

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2009
    Messages:
    4,569
    Likes Received:
    591
    Location:
    Massashootin'
    I'm still confused. Even if wages are not rising fast enough a record number of people have jobs. So why is the market all in a quiver? Serious question.

    Maybe because everything is over valued? Why is Facebook and alike worth so much? To me it's all a f***ing joke.

    BTW, are people really not getting raises at work? If not, maybe ask for a review or more money? How about jumping ship to another similar company?
     
  14. headednorth

    headednorth NES Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    Messages:
    8,818
    Likes Received:
    4,167
    My understanding (IANAFA) is...

    - price of oil crashing means potential economic slowdown here and in China.
    - High yield bonds crashing along with some sort of new securitized bs which sounds like the latest CDO type thing. SLO's I think? Ill try to find the article I read.
    - Fear that a collapse in SLO's could bleed over into the broader financial system.
    - Forced selling by hedge funds in the past week or so adding to downward pressure.

    We began the process of smoothing things over with China and the market went down. I think that made a lot of people uneasy. Them publisizing the fact that they were calling around to the banks and asking if they were ok made a lot of people think, "Great, theyre ok, but why did they feel the need to call in the first place?"
     
  15. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    The stock market has zero to do with jobs, and little to do with the economy. It's all about Fed policy, which is taking away the easy money, both raising interest rates and reducing QE. It's that simple, don't look for more complicated reasons.
     
    xtry51 likes this.
  16. T-Unit

    T-Unit

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    814
    Likes Received:
    492
  17. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    Think we’re due for a big rally, but today was very low volume so we might get the rally on Weds.
     
  18. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

    Joined:
    May 27, 2008
    Messages:
    8,402
    Likes Received:
    3,208
    Location:
    North Central Mass
  19. PennyPincher

    PennyPincher NES Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2007
    Messages:
    10,112
    Likes Received:
    2,592
    Location:
    Texas
    They are carrying larger balances, not paying them off.
     
    Jason Flare likes this.
  20. Waher

    Waher NES Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2014
    Messages:
    6,589
    Likes Received:
    3,929
    Location:
    BG&RA, BR&PC
  21. jpk

    jpk

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2013
    Messages:
    10,882
    Likes Received:
    4,516
    Stock market and over all economic conditions/jobs are not necessarily tied to one another......

    Stocks have a large element of legalized gambling and are massively subsidized by government policy (Fed) as well as policy that allows for deferred taxes on investments (401k etc).

    Gooberment did much the same thing wrt policy with 401k/retirement funds that they did with health insurance.......created policy/law that encouraged (forced) people to do something/subsidize/prop up a market.

    Its all gone sideways now and the people who were forced into these messes are paying the price for the morons that passed the laws/policies

    Just one more case for limited government/government not being allowed to insert itself into peoples affairs
     
    xtry51 and Varmint like this.
  22. richc

    richc NES Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    12,589
    Likes Received:
    4,710
    Location:
    metro west
    Early on I heard an old time financial guy who stated that the markets are driven by three factors, and three factors only:

    Interest rates
    Emotions
    Earnings

    Pick one, pick them all. That's the range of major stock market price drivers.
     
    warpig likes this.
  23. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    That's actually 2, because earnings per share have been hugely inflated by 9 years of emergency stimulative low interest rates. Even last year was a record year for corporate stock buybacks.
     
  24. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    I like the 401k cause it encourages people to save for retirement. Unfortunately its only available to a portion of the working class. But it's a huge benefit to upper middle class workers.

    But i'd be ok with losing the deduction of they reduced overall taxes. As if, lol.
     
  25. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    my problem with this theory is I'm not sure why the Fed would want Dems to run the country?

    I'll agree the timing sure looks suspicious, but the other concern is I don't think the Fed would like the risk of intentionally trying to crash the economy. They're a bunch of bankers, and a credit crash would put banks at big risk.
     
    warpig likes this.
  26. Prepper

    Prepper NES Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2007
    Messages:
    15,897
    Likes Received:
    3,739
    Location:
    NH
    They bail out the banks.... The game is rigged. No worries there.
     
  27. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    Maybe. If the theory is true it is much bigger than the US, since we did $4 trillion in QE, but the global Feds have done an additional $17 trillion in QE. Though only the US Fed is tightening.
     
  28. Coyote33

    Coyote33

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2005
    Messages:
    22,560
    Likes Received:
    2,199
    Well, it is showing at 2,351.10 right now.
     
  29. Waher

    Waher NES Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2014
    Messages:
    6,589
    Likes Received:
    3,929
    Location:
    BG&RA, BR&PC
    It's more than the Fed. Several of the billionaires at the Soros level of market influence are moving money around with options and shorting in a way which is disastrous to them in the short run, but would open up a lot of political influence and profit for them in the longer run.
     
  30. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2014
    Messages:
    10,004
    Likes Received:
    2,602
    Location:
    North Shore, MA
    2350 is where the battle is gonna be, starting tomorrow.
     

Share This Page