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Economic "Doom" Mega thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Reptile, Sep 20, 2009.

  1. Gidge

    Gidge

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    Dow, S&P 500 futures tumble after arrest of Huawei CFO

    MARKETWATCH 8:55 PM ET 12/5/2018

    U.S. stock market futures tumbled in early trading Wednesday night, signaling potential Thursday losses on Wall Street, after Canada arrested a top executive (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/huawei-cfo-arrested-in-canada-at-us- request-for-allegedly-breaking-iran-sanctions-2018-12-05) of Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies at the request of the U.S., a move that is seen as exacerbating tensions between the U.S. and China. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down nearly 300 points Wednesday night, off more than 1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Composite futures were also down more than 1%. Asian stock markets fell as well, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down more than 2%. The U.S. is seeking extradition of CFO Meng Wanzhou over alleged violations of sanctions against Iran. The move could reignite simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and one expert warned China could retaliate (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/china-may-target-us-executives-after-arrest-of-huawei-cfo-this-expert-warns-2018-12-05) against U.S. executives.
     

  2. new guy

    new guy NES Member

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    It looks like it's going to be a rough start this morning, though it always seems to close up on days like this.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
  3. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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    I take it the data here doesn't go back to the 20's and 30's?
     
  4. xtry51

    xtry51 NES Member

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    My first image is by points. The second I posted shows by percentage and you can see the large 20s drops in there.
     
  5. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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    I totally overlooked the second image. I thought it was just a repeat of the first.

    I always found it interesting to see the wild swings before bad things happen, and how the graphs line up historically. Although now, with computer algorithms, some of that is "corrected out".
     
  6. EvilDragon

    EvilDragon

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    Yeah, we're nowhere near 2008 and are not likely to be.
     
  7. Coyote33

    Coyote33

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  8. enbloc

    enbloc NES Life Member NES Member

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    I wonder what tomorrow will bring?...
     
  9. richc

    richc NES Member

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    A huge rally, of course. That's the only irrational move it can make...

     
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  10. enbloc

    enbloc NES Life Member NES Member

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    I don't feel it.
    I predict... down :emoji_arrow_down:
     
  11. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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    Economic Downturn: Credit Cards Aren’t Being Paid, Accounts Are Being Closed

    A new report is shining some light on an indicator that the economy is about to take a major downturn. Credit card accounts are not being paid and some accounts are being closed in anticipation for an upcoming recession.

    Credit-card delinquencies, application rejections, and involuntary account closures are all on the upswing, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. According to Business Insider, The Fed says these developments reported are “potentially concerning” given the strength of the economy and comparatively low interest rates. Does the Fed not remember that they themselves have been jacking up the interest rates for months now? Sure, they are still relatively low, but that’s little consolation for the person who lives paycheck to paycheck and just saw another rate hike.

    The Fed released the results of this report this week. It’s called the “Credit Access Survey” which is a quarterly report on United States borrowers. It brought to the surface a couple of alarming trends that suggest credit-card issuers are getting skittish and paring back risk: Both credit-card rejection rates and involuntary account closures are on the rise.

    Economic Downturn: Credit Cards Aren’t Being Paid, Accounts Are Being Closed
     
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  12. enbloc

    enbloc NES Life Member NES Member

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    Bam!
     
  13. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    The real interesting thing is on a bad stock day, gold and gold miners, and even some silver miners, were up a lot, and broke through resistance.

    We'll see if this is temporary or the start of something bigger.
     
  14. richc

    richc NES Member

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    Good call!!!

    :)

     
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  15. Reptile

    Reptile NES Member

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  16. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    These analysts have never ever predicted a crash, and (shocked face) aren’t this time either.

    I do think the market may have another big rally in it, perhaps triggered when the Fed says the rate hikes are over. That’ll be people’s last chance to get out. Then again bear markets don’t usually give you that chance.
     
  17. Jason Flare

    Jason Flare NES Member

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    If I am correctly understanding the stock market everyone in it is under the impression that they are individually worth a lot of money but in order to have real cash in hand they have to sell and if everyone wants cash in hand at the same time that’s when the market crashes and a lot of people find out their stock is not worth what they thought it was worth.

    I’ve never played the stock market but it looks like the purpose or feature of the stock market is to give those involved the illusion of wealth so they spend real money in the real world.

    ETA: ...but everyone’s not really worth all that money at the same time.
     
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  18. Chevy 2 65

    Chevy 2 65 NES Member

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    I knew a guy who was here on a work visa from the Philippines, I don't how he got one, but he did. He had a credit card and spend all the way up to his credit limit of 5,000 and then left the country. Nice big FU.
     
  19. exodious

    exodious NES Member

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    And whose SS number did he use to get the credit card? How much did that poor sap have to spend to get their credit cleaned up I wonder.
     
  20. Chevy 2 65

    Chevy 2 65 NES Member

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    No idea how he did it. When I found out, I was wondering how the f*** was he able to get one. Then it hit me. He lied and provided false info or stole info?
     
  21. GM-GUY

    GM-GUY NES Member

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    It looks like we will be at $22 Trillion in on the books debt by EOCY - a shutdown looms and you know it's going to be more of the same, spend container ships more of money we don't have but none to protect the country. When the Dems take charge in January you know the GOP in the house will start screaming about deficits and debt (as of today they don't even know what the word means).

    This is with a booming economy - wait until the next down turn. We were at $20 Trillion the end of 0bama - I still expect to see +/-$40 Trillion by 2024.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
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  22. JackOfAllTrades

    JackOfAllTrades

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    It's like back in 2008 when people were running around asking where the trillions in money that the stock market lost went. They couldn't understand that it never actually existed. It was all potential money provided you cashed out right then.

    Remember, it isn't real money until you pay taxes on it.
     
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  23. PaulR

    PaulR NES Member

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    (it's my luck)
    Guys, I recently invested money in the market, everyone out.........now.
     
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  24. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Not necessarily, when I was in school the illegal immigrants just used fake SS numbers to get student financial aid, they weren't stealing numbers. This pissed off some legal immigrants (who didn't want to lie) cause they weren't eligible for aid.
     
  25. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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    Yes, but I'd add that when you sell, someone else is buying your shares, so it's not like you're taking money out of a pot.

    What should really scare investors is that in the last few years, 50% of stock purchases were by companies buying their own stock with, in most cases, borrowed money. So when that stock is going up, it's not cause actual investors are buying it.
     
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  26. Waher

    Waher NES Member

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    6 years of economic 'activity' during Obama's terms was purely the Fed printing money and it going into the market. We have a huge problem with that zombie money.
     
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  27. kman

    kman NES Member

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  28. namedpipes

    namedpipes NES Member

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    That's actually a pretty good description. $10m in Company X stock is only worth $10k if that's all anyone will PAY you for it.
     
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  29. Gidge

    Gidge

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    No, The Deficit Isn't 'Soaring,' And Yes, Tax Revenues Are At Record Highs
    Investor’s Business Daily

    Budget: In the first two months of the new fiscal year, tax revenues are up. But so is the deficit. Why? Because spending continues to outpace revenues. So why do tax cuts keep getting blamed?

    The latest monthly budget report from the Congressional Budget Office shows the deficit jumping $102 billion in just the first two months of the new fiscal year.

    That sure looks like the deficit is "soaring," as one news outlet claimed. But as the CBO makes clear, almost all that deficit increase was the result of quirks of the calendar. Depending on where weekends fall, significant sums of spending can get shifted into different months.

    A true apples-to-apples comparison, the CBO says, shows that the deficit climbed by just $13 billion.

    So, no, the deficit is not soaring.

    Nor are tax cuts to blame for the relatively small increase so far this year.

    In fact, the CBO report shows that overall tax revenues climbed by $14 billion in the first two months of the year, compared with the same months last year. Which means they continue to hit new highs.

    The CBO report shows that combined income and payroll taxes were the same in the first two months of the new fiscal year as they were last year. That's even though far less money was withheld from paychecks thanks to the Trump tax cuts.

    It also found that corporate income taxes went up by $5 billion. That's despite the "massive corporate tax giveaway" that Democrats want to repeal.

    Why are these revenues flat or up? Simple: The tax cuts help spur accelerated economic growth, which create jobs and spark income gains. More workers and higher wages mean more tax revenues. On the corporate side, a bigger economy means more profits, which even when taxed at lower rates can produce more revenue. This is exactly what advocates of Trump's pro-growth tax cuts said would happen.

    Meanwhile, revenue from "other sources" climbed by $8 billion. (To be clear, at least some of that $8 billion came from the re-imposition of ObamaCare's nefarious tax on insurance premiums, which Congress had suspended the year before.)

    But while revenues climbed by $14 billion, spending in the first two months of the new fiscal year climbed by $27 billion.

    Where did the spending hikes come from? CBO says $8 billion was from Social Security, $5 billion from interest on the debt, $9 billion from military spending, and $4 billion from "other."

    As we have said multiple times, the deficit problem is not the result of too little taxes, but too high spending. Unfortunately, Republicans blew the opportunity over the past two years to rein in federal spending, particularly on entitlements.

    No matter what the budget numbers actually show, it's a virtual guarantee that Democrats will blame tax cuts for the rising deficit when they take control of the House next year. And they will put relentless pressure on Trump and congressional Republicans to "compromise" on tax hikes as part of some grand budget agreement.

    That's one deal Trump should never make.
     
  30. Varmint

    Varmint NES Member

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