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This, the worst thing the protesters could do is overplay their hand too much at once, and get smoked out and exterminated.Hong Kong was leased to the British Empire by the Qing Dynasty for a term of 99 years as part of the Peking Convention, and the lease expired in 1997, so the Brits were merely fulfilling their contractual obligations.
I was sympathetic to the demonstrators' causes, still am, but they've been disrupting the major roadways, and now airport. Now on one side you have demonstrators keep on escalating until demands are met, and on the other side you have the government machine only knows of escalating force until compliance, it's a recipe for disaster.
IMO, the demonstrators have got to know when to quit: democracy is a slow, compromising process and you almost never get ALL of what you want. A series of small victories are better than a gigantic defeat, and small victories have been accomplished this time. When I look back at the movement in 1989 movement, it's one of the biggest lessons learned.
This isn't Tienanmen in '89, the people in Hong Kong learn from history, they have social media today, this is an entire city of 7 million people resisting, not a hundred thousand that was basically doing an Occupy Beijing approach.This, the worst thing the protesters could do is overplay their hand too much at once, and get smoked out and exterminated.
Historically Asians tolerate draconian nightmare governments a lot better than the West.What's remarkable to me is that China can make so many advances in standard of living and technology, and still try to hold on to a Communist (in name only) dictatorship. As the people get wealthier and more educated, it seems the totalitarian approach of the government is going to become unstable ; they need to add more and more surveillance and thought control and censorship, and that becomes harder as people have access to technology. At some point as the government tries to paint their own progressively more divergent picture of reality, people will start to reach a breaking point, I would think. With enough torture and repression the CPC can hold on, but it seems like it will promote some kind of civil war eventually if they keep throwing more repressive measures to stay in power.
If "political scientists" had any worth, they could predict what's going to happen. But I think the "science" part is pretty feeble. Nobody seems to know how
this whole thing is going to play out. Russia's commies collapsed into organized crime and oligarchy. What's the end game in China?
Coming back to this thread after my third Turkish coffee. My jet lag doesn't bother me nearly as much as in the past, but I still get that nagging, hazy and slightly nauseous feeling. I completely agree with your points above. LOL, bizzaro world socialist plutocracy fits. Also, people are definitely used to living under the boot, especially gen-Xers and younger. Case in point, some of the commie OG's that I know absolutely love a chance to check out killy rifles and especially squeeze in a range trip when visiting freedom. I know an older guy that's heads a large business and is a party member. He's like a kid in a candy store if given a chance to go to the range, same for his compadres of similar age. I've made range trip offers to younger guys and they can't say 'no' fast enough and are very uncomfortable with even the though of handling a firearm. Maybe they are afraid their phones are listening (maybe they are).Historically Asians tolerate draconian nightmare governments a lot better than the West.
Is China a Communist state? Not really. More like some sort of bizzaro world Socialist Plutocracy. The trick is only a few people hold the keys. And the people who hold the keys don't appear to be players in the plutocracy. The bossmen have zero issue with making public examples out of their LTs on the ground, the CEO's of the large Chinese companies, when they step out of line. Usually via corruption.
The system they have is pretty impressive from the outside looking in. And how it actually works is nothing short of the people living there being so used to being under the boot of the PRC that whats going on now is literally a paradise compared to the pre 1990's hell hole China was for its entire existence.
With all the crazy shit like social credit scores, cameras on literally every f***ing spot possible out in the far West, reeducation camps, etc, they are running a tight ship. The problem is they are destabilizing other economies due to the socialists approach to the economy with a splash of communist intervention. If youre a Chinese merchant you can ship things to the US cheaper than I can ship things to the US. And some say I live in the US, so thats not exactly cool. Reason being the PRC will pay the shipping fee so their merchants can compete with western in house businesses on their own turf. Basically Western business at this point is competing with the PRC .gov, not quasi private PRC businesses. This is pretty problematic and needs to be addressed as it serves the US no mid to long term benefit. Having cheap Chinese made garbage is super cool in the short term. Melting our economy down to a puddle of shit while the Chairman Mao foots the shipping is no beuno as the latinos say.
As for HK, I blame the british and the Western community as a whole. NATO and crew (well the countries in NATO, not NATO) should of told China "hey, f*** you, cant have HK and Macau back, K?" And the PRC would of flipped out but not done shit about it. Giving HK back was a massive mistake. And the writing was on the wall during negotiations starting int he 80's on the end of party town HK. Macua toed the line like good Asians looking for their next totalitarian nightmare to live under and have mostly (ok, nearly fully) kissed the PRC ring. HK has been all hot and bothered about it and its over already. The f***ing HK police own that place. The PLA land forces need not apply, the police can handle it until it completely implodes. And sadly HK born "leadership" are mostly on board with the PRCs dreams of being human buzzkills.
When Portugal was like "hey, dear Western allies, you people have a problem with me holding onto macau" everyone was like "where the f*** is Portugal? who are you again? wtf is Macau? wat?" and that was the end of that.
Leave it to the UK to give up another Overseas Territory for it to go to shit.
The only silver lining is at the end of the day the PRC military blows. It has zero combat experience. Zero power projection. Poor to zero logistical support outside its own borders. the PRC can't go to war if the wars not in China or on the border. And if they go to war with anyone with half a clue its going to be a hard time for them.
I wouldn't say all Asians are against guns, I'm told in the Bay Area in California a large number of those you see at ranges are Asian. That said, there's a difference in perception with gun ownership with Asians based on nationality. Chinese and Filipinos tend to favor it more than Japanese and Koreans do.Coming back to this thread after my third Turkish coffee. My jet lag doesn't bother me nearly as much as in the past, but I still get that nagging, hazy and slightly nauseous feeling. I completely agree with your points above. LOL, bizzaro world socialist plutocracy fits. Also, people are definitely used to living under the boot, especially gen-Xers and younger. Case in point, some of the commie OG's that I know absolutely love a chance to check out killy rifles and especially squeeze in a range trip when visiting freedom. I know an older guy that's heads a large business and is a party member. He's like a kid in a candy store if given a chance to go to the range, same for his compadres of similar age. I've made range trip offers to younger guys and they can't say 'no' fast enough and are very uncomfortable with even the though of handling a firearm. Maybe they are afraid their phones are listening (maybe they are).
Practically all of them think this is a good thing, here's an example I saw in their (state run) news while in China this week:
Crackdown on illegal firearms underway - Chinadaily.com.cn
Notice that airsoft, Creepy Joe's "get a shotgun" over/under, and tools are included in this trophy pic. Can't see them, but even pellet guns are illegal and would have been destroyed with this lot.
Covering for shipping certainly helps, but IMO that's only a few sprinkles on the cake of government propped unfair trade. It starts with ridiculously easy to obtain capital for investment in a new manufacturing venture. Also, theft of IP is institutionalized, followed by well supported industrialization of said stolen IP. They put on a show as far as periodically cracking down on counterfeit luxury goods, but industrial / commercial goods are openly copied. I even saw a blatant copy of a Mercedes G-Wagon rolling down the highway. I see industrial goods that are copied, right down to the logos sans a few very minor 'cute' changes such as substituting a '2' for a 'Z' or adding an extra letter to the beginning or end of a trade name. Content, construction, and formulas are identical though of course the quality may lag. They are upping their game in the quality department, and therefore constitute a bigger threat.
Environmental is improving, but disposal costs for Chinese companies are still pretty much nil. Direct labor cost is increasing a little, but still a fraction of western companies and of course health benes are covered by uncle Mao.
What blows my mind is that they are still perfectly happy to enter a new industrial market then proceed to both over-produce and sell at a fraction of market price, perhaps even at a loss. So many start-ups are able to get cheap capital and receive institutionalized technical support that they will choke out the players from outside China. Purchasing directors / buyers in the USA are such skinflints that they are not only willing to source from these Chinese producers, they are requesting the Chinese producers to develop the more advanced materials and/or components that are not already coming from China, so a lot of the trade problems with China are self-inflicted. The Chinese economy has definitely slowed, but they are still over-producing goods for export.
Of course the Chinese take on HK is that those nasty terrorists need to be squashed. Forget about Fox news, but you can get CNN at western hotel chains. As soon as the HK situation was going to play, CNN was blacked out until the HK segment was over. Of course I was able to see what was happening on several news sources via VPN. It's not SOP for China to move so much equipment and not use it, but perhaps they are thinking twice. Though Trump's statesmanship is usually quite lacking in finesse LOL, I think he played the HK situation perfectly. Trump definitely gave Xi a reason to tread very carefully, without starting a pissing match.
Just to be clear I'm talking about Hong Kong, not "Hong Cong." Where is that, anyway?You don't have to have a great military when you can put a soldier in every ten square inches of ground.....fifty times over.
They have twice as many "MEN fit for service"than we have entire population in the United States.......hello? If they want Hong Cong, they will Take Hong Cong and nobody is going to stop them.
Do a search "estimated Chinese troops", you'll be amazed at China's strength in all areas, most ranking 2nd or 3rd of 137 countries.
China is nothing to overlook or underestimate in terms of military power. Their sheer numbers would exhaust just about every country on the planet, even several combined forces.
I'd say Trumps done "ok" with NK. Talking to Un is nice and all, however, little has actually come out of those conversations. They still play the same old bullshit games.Trump has handled China very well, he's handling N. Korea better than recent predecessors. With both of them,Trump seems to actually think before he says anything as he understands how tight a rope has to be walked. With European countries Trump just lashes out and rightfully so, they're a bunch of imbeciles who don't pay their fair share in NATO and the EU is becoming increasingly hostile to Israel and the US. Not all of them, but Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, and France are a bunch of freeloaders. Russia isn't the USSR anymore, they're not as powerful as they once were, the US, UK, and fmr Warsaw Pact countries could fight them, but it's China where we'd need more help and France, Germany, and Italy are all but useless against the Chinese if a war broke out. A freed Hong Kong and millions of people there willing to fight is a lot more helpful. They understand the threat a lot better than any nation in Europe does because the enemy is on their doorstep.
That's why it's so important to support Hong Kong.
Not that we need to worry about PLA ground forces, but neighboring countries should. Overwhelming numbers count, so long as you can move them where you need them. Despite a completely demoralizing kill ratio favoring the Finns, eventually the Soviet numbers won that war. Soviets were perfectly happy to march fresh troops over the frozen corpses of those sent before. They were even documented to have eaten their own when faced with either Finnish bullets or starvation. Worth worrying if you are on China's border- they can bridge rivers with bodies if they have to.Just to be clear I'm talking about Hong Kong, not "Hong Cong." Where is that, anyway?
Modern doctrine doesnt favor swarm tactics, or huge troop movements. Shit, it didnt work in the Korean War, and that was in 1780. The same army, the PLA swarmed like ants into UN machine gun nests and ate machine gun fire like the true professionals they were. Of course they died immediately after, but they were pros at their job.
Lots-o-troops? great. we have bombs. and other shit that goes boom to make lots of troops turn into zero troops. The PLA? They have a completly un tested and virtually never used anti air capability. Good luck with that. Their air force? The same shit. Their air force hasnt done anything since they fought Vietnam in the 70's. China's navy just figured out how to land planes on a vintage Soviet aircraft carrier they bought on sale in Ukraine. In terms of colossal pieces of shit, this carrier is the king turd of the ocean after the former king turd, Russians carrier was crushed in dry dock by the crane that was supposed to be fixing it after it was towed a few thousand miles back to port for repairs. Apparently the Russians are fixing that so until it hits the high seas again the PLA navy gets the turd trophy.
And then theres the obvious: the ground forces. The PLA is nearly 100% non combat tested with a few outliers here and there. The Chinese army and India have had a fierce race to win the "worst assault rifle in Asia." India was able to recently pull out the victory with the INSAS being sent back to hell where it belongs and the QBZ-95 with it's 5.8x42mm round is sure to be a real treat in combat logistically. Need ammo? You better pray to Chairman Mao that supplies are still coming in because you can't use NATO or Warsaw pact ammo like a normal person.
Whoever has the air wins. And the US isnt going to be losing that to the PRC at this point of time.
Regardless, the US military isnt going to be doing shit about Hong Kong. It's the UK who should be all hot and bothered about this as China is throwing the 1997 deal in the trash like everyone expected them to and that deal was between those two morons.
I'm not sure what's going on in Hong Cong though you could be completely correct about it I've never heard of it.
What?!!!? I thought Pepe was a hate symbol! At least that's what the ADL says, and they can't be wrong...
That's my view as well. Hong Kong's prominence was mostly artificial, a side effect of mainland China being trashed after WWII and Communist insanity. Now that there are banking centers in mainland China, Hong Kong's significance has faded. It's kind of sad because it's an amazing city with such history, but that's the free market. We should cheer the protesters from the sidelines.Hong Kong is China’s. All this ends when China decides it does. No country on earth is stupid enough to get between HK and China if push comes to shove. I hope we stay way out of it.
Sure OK. Like the communist need a bill stating it's ok or not ok to do something.Communist China/Hong Kong cave to protesters
Hong Kong and China Give In to Protesters, Suspend Extradition Bill | Breitbart
Expect some of the protesters to have some of the most unbelievable accidents over the next few years.....