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Communist China/Hong Kong cave to protesters

jpk

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They havent caved to anything. The Chinese play the long game. Hong Kong is finished and people who want to have a non PRC life need to get out before the shit really hits the fan there.
The chinese economy/production is shrinking

The current leadership over played their hand and is vulnerable because their entire economy is dependent on exports

They are extremely vulnerable to tarriffs in the same way the US was 100 years ago with the smoot hawley shenanigans.......

Upset/out of work chinese = potential for unrest and believe it or not the leadership of china is much more vulnerable than you think
 

hminsky

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What's remarkable to me is that China can make so many advances in standard of living and technology, and still try to hold on to a Communist (in name only) dictatorship. As the people get wealthier and more educated, it seems the totalitarian approach of the government is going to become unstable ; they need to add more and more surveillance and thought control and censorship, and that becomes harder as people have access to technology. At some point as the government tries to paint their own progressively more divergent picture of reality, people will start to reach a breaking point, I would think. With enough torture and repression the CPC can hold on, but it seems like it will promote some kind of civil war eventually if they keep throwing more repressive measures to stay in power.

If "political scientists" had any worth, they could predict what's going to happen. But I think the "science" part is pretty feeble. Nobody seems to know how
this whole thing is going to play out. Russia's commies collapsed into organized crime and oligarchy. What's the end game in China?
 

jpk

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What's remarkable to me is that China can make so many advances in standard of living and technology, and still try to hold on to a Communist (in name only) dictatorship. As the people get wealthier and more educated, it seems the totalitarian approach of the government is going to become unstable ; they need to add more and more surveillance and thought control and censorship, and that becomes harder as people have access to technology. At some point as the government tries to paint their own progressively more divergent picture of reality, people will start to reach a breaking point, I would think. With enough torture and repression the CPC can hold on, but it seems like it will promote some kind of civil war eventually if they keep throwing more repressive measures to stay in power.

If "political scientists" had any worth, they could predict what's going to happen. But I think the "science" part is pretty feeble. Nobody seems to know how
this whole thing is going to play out. Russia's commies collapsed into organized crime and oligarchy. What's the end game in China?
If you want to listen to an excellent discussion on the china situation and have a sirius subscription then listen to last nights Breitbart new evening show where they intereviewed frmr general robert spalding

https://www.hudson.org/experts/1265-robert-spalding

I dont agree with a good portion of what he says about 5G but on other issues surrounding China more broadly, supply chain, dependency etc he's spot on.

On the 5G subject we will see an expansion of the irresponsible/insecure practices we've seen already as well as a move towards processing in the cloud and increased dependency on external data/processing vs local processing on your device/node......people and devices will get dumber/more dependent and with catastrophic consequences imho

Consider the self driving car that is dependent on remote processing and connectivity in order to function properly (safely).....interruption in connectivity/processing = not functional missile flying down the road.

If you think I am over doing it then consider the lack of consideration that already goes into vehicles connected to the internet that have little/no security built in.....Chrysler not long ago had jeeps/others remotely hacked and brake/control systems were demonstrated to be capable of being controlled remotely

Furthermore, as more things we are dependent upon are also dependent on connectivity it becomes a single point of failure......consider for a moment the impact of wannacry last year on UK hospitals......they were shutting down/turning patients away because the current crop of Md's/Nurses cant/dont know how to function without a computer.......if the national security consequenses havent sunk in yet they should
 
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If "political scientists" had any worth, they could predict what's going to happen. But I think the "science" part is pretty feeble. Nobody seems to know how
this whole thing is going to play out. Russia's commies collapsed into organized crime and oligarchy. What's the end game in China?
Asian cultures interact much more differently with governments compared to the West. They tolerate hard core statism much better than the West and in free society like South Korea government leadership and officials demonstrate distinct lacks of initiative outside of the direct orders of a superior, whereas in the West taking effective initiative on ones own is seen as an asset. The ferry sinking in SK is a really good recent example of this. Complete gridlock administratively that lead to a shit ton of dead kids followed by a trainwreck of a recovery. None of what needed to happen was outside the immediate scope of SK authorities. It was the refusal to act without the tops blessing followed by mindless bureaucracy.

Want to know how HK will end up? It's simple. Look at Macau for the best case result. They have fallen in line with way less resistance. It's not a horror show but leave it up to the PRC.
 

Spanz

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THIS is amazing.
I would never have guessed they would listen to HK protesters.

Maybe there IS some hope for China playing nice with the USA. Trump probably IS playing his cards right, china is weaker than they appeared to be
 

Mountain

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What's remarkable to me is that China can make so many advances in standard of living and technology, and still try to hold on to a Communist (in name only) dictatorship. As the people get wealthier and more educated, it seems the totalitarian approach of the government is going to become unstable ; they need to add more and more surveillance and thought control and censorship, and that becomes harder as people have access to technology. At some point as the government tries to paint their own progressively more divergent picture of reality, people will start to reach a breaking point, I would think. With enough torture and repression the CPC can hold on, but it seems like it will promote some kind of civil war eventually if they keep throwing more repressive measures to stay in power.

If "political scientists" had any worth, they could predict what's going to happen. But I think the "science" part is pretty feeble. Nobody seems to know how
this whole thing is going to play out. Russia's commies collapsed into organized crime and oligarchy. What's the end game in China?
Well said regarding China. Any political scientist that 'gets' China would impress the hell out of me. Seems to me that the latest generation of Chinese seem quite docile and OK with the intrusive cameras everywhere and social score situation. When Chinese coworkers visit, I've offered to take them to the range whenever they ask about guns in the US. They get this concerned if not terrified look and politely decline. Some of my old school customers (their customers) used to absolutely love a chance to go to the range, though the old school guys were more likely ex mil and/or commie party members.

Sure there must have been some issues in Russia after the break-up of the USSR, but I think the narrative is a little overblown here. We have our own problems with organized crime- probably worse than there if you include all the gangs. Regarding the oligarchy issue, keep in mind that much of the USSR manufacturing base was consolidated into huge state owned & run sites. Upon the break-up, all the employees of the various sites were given shares. If the management believed in a future for a given site, they raised capital to buy controlling shares of the entity and formed a company. They took all the risk and had to cough up the cash to buy the shares from workers who were more than happy to cash out. Flash forward to today- many of those companies are doing well, with worker conditions far better than what you would find in China. Not exactly a robber baron situation and the lack of competition for the most part was inherited from the old structure. Keep in mind that Russia's GDP is ~$1.6T vs. ours at $19.4T.
 

minininjer

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When Chinese coworkers visit, I've offered to take them to the range whenever they ask about guns in the US. They get this concerned if not terrified look and politely decline. Some of my old school customers (their customers) used to absolutely love a chance to go to the range, though the old school guys were more likely ex mil and/or commie party members.
My two cousins (almost mid 20s age) and their dad who live in Hong Kong absolutely loved when I took them to the range when they visited me here in VA. They were ecstatic.
 

Spanz

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My two cousins (almost mid 20s age) and their dad who live in Hong Kong absolutely loved when I took them to the range when they visited me here in VA. They were ecstatic.
Brother's wife, who came from China, loves shooting. They actually had their own range on their ranch. she would go on walks with a .45 on her hip.

all her friends from there would come visit, and first thing they wanted to do was to shoot guns!
 

jpk

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Lmao, no one is caving. Modernized communism 101.
1. Stabilize the situation
2. General Reassessment
3. Risk Assessment
4. Footage collection from CCTVs, cell phone data etc.
5. Perpetrators identification
.....list goes on. Watch and learn in the next few months.
Isnt that the donk playbook?
 

Artifact

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I
Isnt that the donk playbook?
There isn’t some radical new idea or playbook on how to handle this. They tried the typical borderline approach in order to thwart the situation and it didn’t work.

Now, they go back to what they do best.

People say Russia is the biggest threat. The Russians are just Americans with accents, wearing tracksuits and no f***s given.

China is were is at
 

Broccoli Iglesias

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The chinese economy/production is shrinking

The current leadership over played their hand and is vulnerable because their entire economy is dependent on exports

They are extremely vulnerable to tarriffs in the same way the US was 100 years ago with the smoot hawley shenanigans.......

Upset/out of work chinese = potential for unrest and believe it or not the leadership of china is much more vulnerable than you think
Also, the Chinese people are more global today. You can hide stuff behind the firewall, but they still have millions of Chinese traveling abroad, and millions of foreigners visiting. The information flows. Maybe the farmers stay ignorant, but not the city people. One example is Chinese people not trusting their economy and buying property all over the world.

There are developments in Asia that had to limit Chinese investors because they were buying everything. I believe one of these is an island they are building near HK. Chinese were buying so much, the govt had to step in and try to stop foreign investment, the locals couldnt buy anything.

This is also a good example of why the U.S. can continue to print money, borrow and everyone looks the other way. The dollar cant collapse, it will screw everyone.
 

June4th

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If anyone should be sticking their noses into what the Chinese are doing, it should be those dickless Brits, who gave HK back.
Hong Kong was leased to the British Empire by the Qing Dynasty for a term of 99 years as part of the Peking Convention, and the lease expired in 1997, so the Brits were merely fulfilling their contractual obligations.

I was sympathetic to the demonstrators' causes, still am, but they've been disrupting the major roadways, and now airport. Now on one side you have demonstrators keep on escalating until demands are met, and on the other side you have the government machine only knows of escalating force until compliance, it's a recipe for disaster.

IMO, the demonstrators have got to know when to quit: democracy is a slow, compromising process and you almost never get ALL of what you want. A series of small victories are better than a gigantic defeat, and small victories have been accomplished this time. When I look back at the movement in 1989 movement, it's one of the biggest lessons learned.
 
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So I realized that I didn't really know what the protests were about, but given the intensity of things I sort of surmised that it was an existential issue for HK. Anyway, here's wikipedia's take:

2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests - Wikipedia

The 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests are a series of ongoing demonstrations in Hong Kong against the Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Bill proposed by the government of Hong Kong. The legislation was proposed by Secretary for Security John Lee in February 2019 in response to a murder that occurred in Taiwan the previous year in which the suspect had fled to Hong Kong. As a special administrative region, Hong Kong is jurisdictionally distinct from mainland China and maintains a separate governing and legal system under the "one country, two systems" principle. The regional government was unable to transfer the fugitive to Taiwanese authorities, citing a lack of formal extradition arrangements between the two jurisdictions.[18]

If enacted, the bill would allow local authorities to detain and extradite people who are wanted in countries or territories that Hong Kong does not have extradition agreements with, including mainland China and Taiwan.[19] Opponents of the legislation fear that it would place Hong Kong residents and visitors under the jurisdiction of mainland courts (which are controlled by the Communist Party of China) and apply not only to criminals, but political dissidents as well.[20][21][22][23]
So HK fears that this is essentially China extending its tentacles into HK to grab political dissidents? I can see how that would be a pretty serious concern - the effective end of one country, two systems. Here are the protestors' objectives:
upload_2019-8-13_8-6-46.png

It's a long article with lots of information about specific sieges, protests, deaths, military/police actions, online activity and allegations of foreign interference. Tons of events that we never hear about over here. Of course our own federal shitbags and associated agitators are involved, and have been caught on camera meeting with the protest leaders.

It sounds like they have elections in November, so presumably things will come to a head before then.
 

enbloc

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Go Get 'em Hong Kong!

Tariffs, my ass. Chinese Want Freedom!

Sent your Norinco SKS to Hong Kong and support the Freedom Fighters!



 
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