Barrett wrote the dissent in Kanter v Barr, a non violent felon prohibited for life. Her dissent is exactly along the lines of what Thomas wrote in the majority opinion in NYSRPA. The majority in Kanter used intermediate scrutiny with the compelling govt interest bs basically every anti 2A ruling used from 2009-2022.
The dissent in the NJ mag limit case, which lost 2-1 but was just vacated and remanded back to the 3rd circuit, was by Matey (trump) and used the same NYSRPA language. There was a felon prohibition case in the 3 a few years ago too, I believe that lost 2-1 and SCOTUS pre Barrett didn’t accept it
I think the non violent prohibition falls within the next 5 years. I think there’s a decent chance the felon prohibition falls for all felons unless the govt can prove the person is a future risk. That’s how it was when the 2nd was drafted. There isn’t a text or history of the govt banning possession for life unless they were an ongoing threat.
Here’s the Kanter ruling and Barrett’s dissent.
Kanter v. Barr, No. 18-1478 (7th Cir. 2019)