Carcano Accuracy and THE Conspiracy Theory

Sweeney

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majspud

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My first try with my 1940 original matched M38 last year. 100 yards....didn't do very well, but there are at least two kill shots in there. Shot very high initially...about 23/40 hits.
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87AEF568-2983-4815-8573-8A7F5E6CF5A8.jpeg
 
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majspud

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Hell, I wouldn't be born for three years...

Very clunky rifle, especially considering it was the "newest" version with the proper rifling for a shorter barrel. As stated before, the fixed rear "V" notch is barely usable. Don't know how much practice time Oswald had, but I'd like at least another 100 rounds out of it to get the feel for it and have a reasonable hope of hitting my target.
t
 

Mountain

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1 out of 3 or more shots? With a little luck that doesn't seem that hard.


Edit, check my math: SR-1 has a 6.375" aiming black. One MOA at 88 yards is about 0.92136". 6.375/0.92136 = 6.9 MOA

So yeah a pizza box jarhead putting 1 out of 3 shots into a 6.9 MOA circle with a supported 5 MOA rifle doesn't seem like a huge stretch.

That's what I'm thinking. Not impossible by any stretch. You get 3 shots off in the general direction and 1 has at least a chance.
"The bullets got to go somewhere; might as well be an X"
Great responses. Yeah, it certainly seems possible. Is it probable? Crayon eaters get ~6 MOA bull for their 'Able' qual target. Battle worthy marksmanship isn't necessarily sniper material. Perhaps 'possible' is enough to put it to rest, but I think the statistics of those shots + that rifle + that shooter make luck a huge factor, meaning possible but improbable.
 

Mountain

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In case anyone is interested in a Carcano, Sweaty Ben has them on sale starting Monday:

rhbpWCh.jpg
 

fshalor

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88 yards. I think the 'target' (head) would be very comparable to the bull of the SR1 at 100. Think you could keep 'em well inside the black with a 3 to 5 MOA rifle? Now with a moving target? In rapid succession with a clunky bolt action?

Forget what you can do with a high power match rifle.
We should be talking about the LUBE he used!

And ya. That shot , I'd prefer 1x or irons. I'm not a rifle shooter (much), but irons to 100 feels good.

My T53 could make the shot mechanically, but cycling the bolt, even supported and with proper sling tension, and then reacuqiring would be easier on iron. Not fast enough to make the following shot on it. Probably not on the Carac either.

Frog lube? Was that the secret?

I'm going with Frog Lube. 🐸
 

majspud

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Plenty also from Royal Tiger (ex Ethiopian) in both 6.5 and 7.35mm....$270-400







t
 

Mountain

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Some geometry of the shots. Note; the shot interval between shot 1 and 2 is 6.3 seconds and between 2 and 3 is 4.9 seconds... not really that fast.


For the last shot the target would appear to be barely moving just slowly increasing range.

That's a very interesting study. Haven't had time to digest all of it yet, but it's a great analysis of the mechanics of the shots.

I think that time interval comes at you a little faster than it looks on paper. No, not terribly fast but certainly not helping accuracy.

Mainly I am thinking that the equipment and ammo was a significant hindrance, and while Oswald's skill set was adequate- it was not enough to overcome the limits of the equipment. The biggest factor may have been 'luck'.

Rifle is 3-5 MOA accurate. Let's call it 4 MOA.
Under time pressure, top match shooters are getting getting ~3 MOA groups in the 10-ring at similar distance but with 1 MOA or better rifles.
Military shooters that are not big match guys are probably getting at best 6 MOA under time pressure with a 2 MOA rifle? Just a swag there.
I think Oswald's capability would be 4 MOA at best, add 1 more MOA for moving target difficulty.
All aspects considered, Oswald was going after the target with 8 to 10 MOA capability.

Of course this is all BS cooked up in my head but it is based on observations of many different people of varying experience and capability putting holes in paper under time stress. I think I'm at least directionally correct in saying no, this was not an easy shot for Oswald. At best it was a 'lucky' shot for him, though 3 shots to make a fatal hit make it very plausible to have happened- dare I say even probable?

Here's a digital rendering of the two bullets that hit, fatal one fragmented. This was done by a collaboration between the National Archives and the NIST. Keep in mind that analysis of the lead core showed nil antimony, which would make the lead very soft. I'd expect fragmentation in any bullet that connected, so the mostly intact one is curious. Maybe it first passed through something soft that slowed its velocity.

jfk-3d-artifacts-wide-64.gif


source: Bullets That Killed John F. Kennedy Immortalized as Digital Replicas
 

Sweeney

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^ I agree luck was a factor but, even assuming 10 MOA, you're looking at an 18" dia circle at the range (90 yds) the fatal shot was taken. Stick a human head in an 18" circle and it takes up about 60% of the area and that's the low end of average human head size (assuming an ellipse with axis of 6" and 8")... decent odds that the shot hits even if by chance..
 

PatMcD

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^ I agree luck was a factor but, even assuming 10 MOA, you're looking at an 18" dia circle at the range (90 yds) the fatal shot was taken. Stick a human head in an 18" circle and it takes up about 60% of the area and that's the low end of average human head size (assuming an ellipse with axis of 6" and 8")... decent odds that the shot hits even if by chance..
Kennedy had a big Irish melon.
 

Mountain

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^ I agree luck was a factor but, even assuming 10 MOA, you're looking at an 18" dia circle at the range (90 yds) the fatal shot was taken. Stick a human head in an 18" circle and it takes up about 60% of the area and that's the low end of average human head size (assuming an ellipse with axis of 6" and 8")... decent odds that the shot hits even if by chance..

Kennedy had a big Irish melon.
Thank you, gents. I'm going to edge my take on these shots as not only plausible, but slightly probable.

Collectively I think we are better than the Warren Commission, LOL.

Now imagine if Oswald had used a semi in 6.5 Creedmoor.
 

mac1911

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Thank you, gents. I'm going to edge my take on these shots as not only plausible, but slightly probable.

Collectively I think we are better than the Warren Commission, LOL.

Now imagine if Oswald had used a semi in 6.5 Creedmoor.
no chance , his man ban would have unraveled at the key moment ruining any chance of getting a shot off.

I still chalk it up as a lucky "miss"
Like when you just take a snap shot at something with no real chance of hitting it but you do.
Like when you throw a rock at a bird and amazingly you hit it.
i had some lucky hits with my wrist rocket over the years.

even if it was a AD from the secret service agent behind him, how does a random non aimed shot find a 8" target. .... Shit f***ing luck!
 

Mountain

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no chance , his man ban would have unraveled at the key moment ruining any chance of getting a shot off.

I still chalk it up as a lucky "miss"
Like when you just take a snap shot at something with no real chance of hitting it but you do.
Like when you throw a rock at a bird and amazingly you hit it.
i had some lucky hits with my wrist rocket over the years.

even if it was a AD from the secret service agent behind him, how does a random non aimed shot find a 8" target. .... Shit f***ing luck!

Even with man bun interference, a 1/2 MOA rifle is going to find the big Irish melon.

***

Melon and man bun humor aside, knowing the Carcano is a bit of a pizzashit I was thinking the tinfoil theories might have merit. Walking it through as we have done on this thread has been interesting and informative. Also the tinfoil theories no longer hold any appeal for me. Now for some more fun, statistics!

Using the target is covering 60% of the 10 MOA variation approximate from @Sweeney (10 MOA from me), what are the chances that Oswald would get a hit with one of his 3 shots? Since only one shot has to do the job, it's simpler to calculate the reverse: What are the odds that all three shots will miss? That calculation would be 40%*40%*40% (40^3 for you sticklers) = 6.4%. Thus the probability of one of those 3 hits to connect with the big Irish melon is 93.6%.

No need to put your money on the grassy knoll or the fat fingered Secret Service agent- double down on Oswald.
 

PATRON

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Now I want you to take a look at this picture,and tell me where would you put yourself for that shot? The book depository has a green line on the floor that oswald did the shooting from.Now the red line will show the route from Huston st. to Elm st where JFK was shot.Now the floor that Oswald was on has an open floor plan,you can go from one end of the room to the other with no problem.As you face the building the shots were done from the far left window towards Elm st orange lines showing the shots.If you look over to the far right window you can see a white line going straight to Houston st. and a perfect frontal shot for half a block. Now years ago I went to Dealey plaza, and walked all over that place,the perfect no miss shot would have been from the window facing Houston st. so why didn't he take it?
 

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Sweeney

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Now I want you to take a look at this picture,and tell me where would you put yourself for that shot? The book depository has a green line on the floor that oswald did the shooting from.Now the red line will show the route from Huston st. to Elm st where JFK was shot.Now the floor that Oswald was on has an open floor plan,you can go from one end of the room to the other with no problem.As you face the building the shots were done from the far left window towards Elm st orange lines showing the shots.If you look over to the far right window you can see a white line going straight to Houston st. and a perfect frontal shot for half a block. Now years ago I went to Dealey plaza, and walked all over that place,the perfect no miss shot would have been from the window facing Houston st. so why didn't he take it?
Greater chance of escape if everyone is moving away from you rather than closing in.
 

Mountain

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Now I want you to take a look at this picture,and tell me where would you put yourself for that shot? The book depository has a green line on the floor that oswald did the shooting from.Now the red line will show the route from Huston st. to Elm st where JFK was shot.Now the floor that Oswald was on has an open floor plan,you can go from one end of the room to the other with no problem.As you face the building the shots were done from the far left window towards Elm st orange lines showing the shots.If you look over to the far right window you can see a white line going straight to Houston st. and a perfect frontal shot for half a block. Now years ago I went to Dealey plaza, and walked all over that place,the perfect no miss shot would have been from the window facing Houston st. so why didn't he take it?
Perhaps he thought there was some chance of self preservation? Do a search on secret service with president in parade. What will be common to every single pic you look at?

There's the theory that he took the trailing shots because Presidential protection is practically 100% eyes front as the procession moves by. Maybe they are doing a better job than I can perceive, but I'm almost shocked to see how little attention is paid to threats from the rear even today. At least that's the visual I get from nearly every recent video and still. Today's entourage of course includes the CAT team in following vehicles, but are any of them positioned to monitor the rear? Shooting from the rear would have given Oswald more time to take additional shots before he was detected.

Unless you see or hear the terminal impact, in my experience it's difficult to know the direction of a shot from the supersonic crack of a nearby bullet. You know if it is to the left or to the right, or maybe overhead- but you don't know where it came from until you hear the boom from the rifle and/or know where the bullet impacted. Even then you only have a general sense of the direction of its origin. If from the rear, the first shot is a freebie and probably the second one as well. Combine that with the fact that someone shooting from inside a dark building is going to be virtually invisible to those outside in bright sunlight and that third shot also can be made without blowing cover.
 

42!

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Now I want you to take a look at this picture,and tell me where would you put yourself for that shot? The book depository has a green line on the floor that oswald did the shooting from.Now the red line will show the route from Huston st. to Elm st where JFK was shot.Now the floor that Oswald was on has an open floor plan,you can go from one end of the room to the other with no problem.As you face the building the shots were done from the far left window towards Elm st orange lines showing the shots.If you look over to the far right window you can see a white line going straight to Houston st. and a perfect frontal shot for half a block. Now years ago I went to Dealey plaza, and walked all over that place,the perfect no miss shot would have been from the window facing Houston st. so why didn't he take it?
The door was locked, the window was stuck, there was someone in that corner, it was further from the stairs, the sun was in his eyes, the target would be in shadow, he had an upset tummy and wanted to be near the bathroom, and on and on. You can play endless games. In the end he was where he was and he took the shots he did, and he didn't need to be some awesome shot to make it. Just and average guy with a gun, who is lucky enough to hit one out of 3 shots.
 

mac1911

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Now I want you to take a look at this picture,and tell me where would you put yourself for that shot? The book depository has a green line on the floor that oswald did the shooting from.Now the red line will show the route from Huston st. to Elm st where JFK was shot.Now the floor that Oswald was on has an open floor plan,you can go from one end of the room to the other with no problem.As you face the building the shots were done from the far left window towards Elm st orange lines showing the shots.If you look over to the far right window you can see a white line going straight to Houston st. and a perfect frontal shot for half a block. Now years ago I went to Dealey plaza, and walked all over that place,the perfect no miss shot would have been from the window facing Houston st. so why didn't he take it?
I have no answers other than for what ever reason my dad always told me if your going

to take a shot at a moving deer , your chances are better if its moving away.
Same with downing birds , if they pop up and come at you I at least had a hard time hitting them. As they go away from you its easier to get a hit...well for me anyway.
Maybe its something to do with how our eyes work?
i dont know how to get it to words?

Wether it was 1 shooter tossing 3 rounds down range or 3 shooters shooting 1 shot each.
Someone got the shot to connect.
 

Mountain

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I had to “refine” my search to get the photo I posted. My first attempt was all primates as well. :p
Must have had my safe search on. Reminds me of years ago during the AOL dial up modem days. One of the kids had an eye infection so Mrs. Mountain did a search for 'pink eye'. The results page loaded quite slowly. Apparently there were a lot of image files that slowly revealed themselves. [rofl]
 

dhuze

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I don't know how many of you have been to Dealy Plaza, but that shot was not very difficult at all. I don't think it was even 100 yards. The "Grassy knoll" where the "2nd shooter" was supposed to be was right beside the sidewalk. Not 25-30 feet from the center of the road where Kennedy was shot. It's Road, sidewalk, grassy knoll. And this knoll is only maybe 10 feet high. If someone was there shooting everyone would have seen him.

There was a recreation of the shooting and the guy who did it had 3 Carcarno's. 2 of them actually malfunctioned, but the 3rd one did exactly what Oswald was accused of.
Carcano's are notorious pieces of crap.
 

Mountain

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I don't know how many of you have been to Dealy Plaza, but that shot was not very difficult at all. I don't think it was even 100 yards. The "Grassy knoll" where the "2nd shooter" was supposed to be was right beside the sidewalk. Not 25-30 feet from the center of the road where Kennedy was shot. It's Road, sidewalk, grassy knoll. And this knoll is only maybe 10 feet high. If someone was there shooting everyone would have seen him.

There was a recreation of the shooting and the guy who did it had 3 Carcarno's. 2 of them actually malfunctioned, but the 3rd one did exactly what Oswald was accused of.
Carcano's are notorious pieces of crap.
IMHO a combination of factors made the shot somewhat difficult- certainly not a 'sure thing'. I now don't see any space for conspiracy theories, however.
 

mac1911

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IMHO a combination of factors made the shot somewhat difficult- certainly not a 'sure thing'. I now don't see any space for conspiracy theories, however.
What you dont think someone had a Swedish mauser 400 yards away!
My uncle said this about the Assignation
“As the years go by either the government has been busy killing everyone who knows or the man that knows is dead.
Either way JFK is dead. Thats how someone wanted it. Be it the gid dam commies or some nut job”
 

Mountain

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What you dont think someone had a Swedish mauser 400 yards away!
My uncle said this about the Assignation
“As the years go by either the government has been busy killing everyone who knows or the man that knows is dead.
Either way JFK is dead. Thats how someone wanted it. Be it the gid dam commies or some nut job”

My guess is either nut job alone or nut job with commie backing.

Commies are still out there and they're still good at assassination, though their latest hit job was character assassination. Funny that they are no longer from Russia and probably not from Cuba either. More like NY, NY; or Scranton, PA.
 
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Now I want you to take a look at this picture,and tell me where would you put yourself for that shot? The book depository has a green line on the floor that oswald did the shooting from.Now the red line will show the route from Huston st. to Elm st where JFK was shot.Now the floor that Oswald was on has an open floor plan,you can go from one end of the room to the other with no problem.As you face the building the shots were done from the far left window towards Elm st orange lines showing the shots.If you look over to the far right window you can see a white line going straight to Houston st. and a perfect frontal shot for half a block. Now years ago I went to Dealey plaza, and walked all over that place,the perfect no miss shot would have been from the window facing Houston st. so why didn't he take it?
Target identification. He wanted to escape. So needs to take the shot at some distance. But wants to wait until he has positively identified the target. So he waits until he is sure he knows it is Kennedy, but then too close. Waits until he is past to take the shot. At that point, willing to take a somewhat closer shot as most are facing away, as noted earlier.
 
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