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bullet shortage

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received this from a friend through email

War soaks up bullets; police feel shortage
SHIPMENTS DELAYED, PRICES INCREASING
By Rodney Foo
Mercury News
Article Launched: 04/08/2007 01:41:15 AM PDT

Police departments in the South Bay and around the country are encountering a nagging side effect from the U.S. military's long overseas missions: It's getting more difficult to obtain bullets.

The shortage, also being fueled by an unprecedented rise in the price of raw materials, is not so severe that local law enforcement agencies risk running out of bullets. But departments in Santa Clara County have agreed to share ammo if any of them runs low.

From California to Florida, police range masters say they are seeing ammunition shipments that once took only 45 days to arrive now take four to six months.

"It has become a nightmare," said Sgt. Don Moore, San Jose police range master.

To cope with the delays, police have been increasing their ammunition orders, replenishing storerooms to the limit. In January, the San Jose budget office disclosed to city council members that police were seeking an extra $44,000 to buy ammunition. In the fiscal year 2005-06, police spent $199,000 for bullets.

In the past six months, the department has used about 600,000 rounds in training and in marksmanship qualification tests; police rarely fire their guns in the field.

The ammunition shortages stem from a new reality in the post-Sept. 11, 2001, era: The U.S. military is firing its weapons at a breakneck pace.

Big changes

When Alliant Techsystems - the parent company of Federal, the nation's
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largest small-caliber ammunition manufacturer - was contracted to operate the Department of Defense's Lake City, Mo., Army ammunition plant more than five years ago, it was churning out 350 million rounds annually.

How things have changed: From March 2005 to March 2006, about 1.3 billion rounds were made at the plant, said Alliant Tech spokesman Bryce Hallowell.

And according to February budget documents, the Army proposed to contract for an additional 300 million rounds from commercial manufacturers.

The military's need for more ammo, especially .223 Remington and 9mm cartridges, puts it in direct competition with police departments. San Jose's special weapons and tactics teams use the high velocity, flat trajectory .223 rounds in their carbines. Most San Jose officers use 9mm-caliber semiautomatic guns with clips that carry 15 to 17 rounds.

But when it comes to ammunition orders, Uncle Sam is first in line, industry officials say.

"If something comes down, the military ammunition is always going to get first call," said Eddie Stevenson, a spokesman for Remington, the Madison, N.C.-based gun and ammo manufacturer.

Peter Arment, a defense industry analyst for Rhode Island-based JSA Research Inc., said the military has "absorbed a lot of the capacity in the industry, and the industry has been trying to bring more capacity on line but not on as rapid a pace that is needed."

Combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan account for some of the increase. But the rise also stems from the Army's post-Sept. 11 emphasis on improving marksmanship. Arment estimates that 90 percent of the Army's ammo is fired during training.

With a tight domestic market, Moore said some ammunition distributors are purchasing foreign-made ammo and passing the increased cost - additional shipping and import fees - on to customers.

Prices increasing

During the past 2 1/2 years, as demand for copper and brass have surged in China and India, prices for the metals, which are used to make bullet jackets and casings, have almost quadrupled. The main component of most bullets is lead, and its price has doubled. The cost of tungsten, a component of armor-piercing bullets, has tripled.

No matter what, all that's certain is the cost of small-caliber ammo will rise as the worldwide demand for raw materials rises.

"All we've been told is the price will go up," San Diego police range master Ralph Garcia said. "We don't know how much."

Manufacturers say there is no shortage of ammo on the domestic market but acknowledge that military demand has made some calibers harder to find.

"The war is having some effect in a few calibers we do manufacture - not all calibers," said Ann Pipkin, a spokeswoman for Olin Corp., which produces Winchester Ammunition.

Pipkin cited the .223 Remington, used in M-16s, the Army's primary infantry rifle, as one of the calibers affected.

The Tulsa, Okla., police department has also experienced delays in ammo shipments. Orders that took 30 to 45 days to fill now take about three to four months, said officer Jason Willingham, a department spokesman.

"It is a concern as of right now, but it has not affected operations," Willingham said.

Miami Police Department spokeswoman officer Martha Carbana reported similar delays in getting ammo shipments.

"It's not an immediate problem for us, but there is a delay where normally that wait didn't exist," Carbana said.

Over at the Milpitas Shooting Range Target Masters West, owner Bill Heskett said he's experienced about five delays in ammunition shipments the last three years, but he said, "It's no big deal."

"Sometimes it's specific manufacturers," he said. "I know the war in Iraq has sucked up a lot of ammo."

Heskett used to keep a two-week inventory, but now he tries to keep a month's supply on hand to tide him over when deliveries are uncertain.

Need to stay sharp

The impact on San Jose officers has been negligible, officials say. However, target ammo is a staple for all officers - including the chief - who have to pass mandated marksmanship tests every six months. So they need to stay sharp by practicing.

But no matter how difficult it has been to obtain ammo, none of the departments contacted begrudged the Army from getting first in line for bullets.

"I want our military guys to have all the ammo they need," Moore said. "They're in a fight every day of their lives."

Mercury News Staff Writer Sean Webby contributed to this report. Contact Rodney Foo at [email protected] or (408) 920-5258.
 
I have NEVER seen an ample supply of 9mm. There has been a Major shortage of 9mm ever since that piece of crap came out. They should have stayed with the time tested M1911A1.
I didn't realize they were shooting so much ammo overseas. How did we ever survive the ammo crunch of WWII or of Vietnam??? This sounds like a ploy for justifing the rise of the cost of ammo and with these type of excuses who would challenge?
 
How did we ever survive the ammo crunch of WWII or of Vietnam??? This sounds like a ploy for justifing the rise of the cost of ammo and with these type of excuses who would challenge?
No, you are incorrect.

After the Cold War ended, the government sold off the large ammunition plants, because they were "no longer needed." The commercial world can't afford to have huge production capacity sitting idle, so most of those plants are long gone.
 
I have NEVER seen an ample supply of 9mm. There has been a Major shortage of 9mm ever since that piece of crap came out. They should have stayed with the time tested M1911A1.

Then there would be a shortage of .45 acp.

I didn't realize they were shooting so much ammo overseas. How did we ever survive the ammo crunch of WWII or of Vietnam??? This sounds like a ploy for justifing the rise of the cost of ammo and with these type of excuses who would challenge?

Every now and then, a rumor pops-up on other firearms related forums that the military is considering/evaluating going back to the .45 auto.
Even if true though, it would probably be years before the change over materialized (you know they'd rather spend millions going through an evaluation/testing process rather than simply returning to a time tested and proven design like the M1911).

I've read several online claims of how much ammo is being expended in Iraq. I
forget the exact numbers, but it was a lot more than was used in Vietnam.

I Goggled a bit and found this though...

The number of bullets fired in Iraq

How many bullets are we shooting daily at somebody in Iraq? Whatever it is, the Pentagon isn't eager for civilians to know. I've been looking on Google for a few hours now, with some frustration.

The military's annual need increased from 733 million small arms rounds (.50 caliber or less) in 2000 to 1,790 million rounds in 2005, but training requirements were greatly increased, so it's hard to figure out how much of the 1,057,000,000 bullets increase in annual demand goes to combat operations.

It's not clear the military even knows. A 2005 master's degree thesis at the Army War College by Lt. Colonel Dean Mengel entitled "AMMUNITION SHORTAGES EXPERIENCED IN OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM – CAUSES AND SOLUTIONS" reported:


On the surface, the problem of how much ammunition is needed for current operations in Iraq seems to be fairly easy to determine. If the theater reported the weekly or monthly expenditure through the established reporting system to HQDA, these could be used to determine a monthly requirement. ... Unfortunately, all the reports and records that would allow HQDA to track use and anticipate shortages have not been used or maintained accurately with any level of confidence. This has been the case since preparation for OIF [Operation Iraqi Freedom] commenced and continues today. ... The fact that a conference is being held in Kuwait to address the problem of ammunition reporting, after nearly two years in theater, is a sad testament to how this issue has been handled.

Only in one document have I found a breakout of small caliber ammo usage between training and combat, and that's a little too informal for complete confidence. In testimony before the House of Representatives on June 24, 2004, references were made to "less than 10 million rounds per month being expended in hostilities" and an annual expenditure of "a hundred million for the war" outside of training. The first 12-15 months of the war was said to account for 72 million rounds, or 5.5 million per month. But after the invasion there was a lull in fighting, so usage probably increased as the insurgency cranked up. Those numbers may exclude branches besides the Army, but might include the smaller war in Afghanistan, which means they might roughly balance out. (I don't think this includes training exercises inside Iraq, but I could be wrong.)

So let's call it 100,000,000 bullets per year or 8.3 million fired per month in Iraq in mid-2004.

So, that's about 275,000 bullets fired in anger per day by U.S. forces (assuming all the ammo consumed was fired -- some may have been stolen). Larger, more deadly explosive rounds of 20 to 40 mm are in addition to this (total demand for medium caliber ammo runs around 20 million rounds per year, including training.) And then there's the big shells from tanks and artillery plus aerial bombs.

That's a big number. Of course, the vast majority of bullets fired never hit anybody, but you can imagine the psychological impact on Iraqis of having 275,000 American bullets per day flying around their county trying to kill somebody. The .50 caliber rounds from the old M-2 machine gun are particularly alarming -- they can fly for several miles and at close range can punch through several walls. It's kind of hard to win the hearts and minds of Iraqis when you are firing a quarter of a million bullets per day in their homeland, some of them winding up in random living rooms.

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2006/10/number-of-bullets-fired-in-iraq.html

WRT to the shortage/high demand for ammo stateside, I wonder how much it could have been averted if the Clinton EO on banning civilian sales of milsurp ammo had never happened?
 
Every now and then, a rumor pops-up on other firearms related forums that the military is considering/evaluating going back to the .45 auto.

Must be a pretty good rumor as Smith and Wesson is about to release their M&P45 with features that are specifically designed to be put to the test as the new US sidearm.
 
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I would think that if we are firing that many rounds in Iraq, then we need to work on Marksmanship Training more. Vietnam had Firebases that were armed to the teeth, Had Gunships, Puff and battle after battle after battle and I can not even begin to believe more small arm ammo is being expended in Iraq than in Vietnam. Not by a long shot. (pun) I know of a few Water Buffalo that created a Full scale one sided Fire Fight. I think a lot of that Ammo claimed to be fired in Iraq is from training the Iraqi Forces. The ARVN never shot their weapons.
The Military has been talking about the switch back to the .45 for a few years now and from what I understand, iit is done. The 9mm had little knock down power and I stood right beside a guy who was shot from about 200 meters with a 9mm and it never even penetrated his Field Jacket.
The Grease Gun was a .45 cal and was in the military aresenals until not too long ago. The .45 is still pretty stock piled. There was NEVER a .45 shortage and there has been a .9mm shortage since DAY ONE. For our AG Matches we have had to go thru the Air Guard or the Law Enforcement in order to get what is needed for the matches. Way before 9 11
 
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I'm not so sure about "shortages" as I can readily find anything I want... abeit at outrageous prices lately. Demand AND material cost= high prices... we just have to deal with it. Forunately we can reload to save a few bucks- I don't think that's an option for the military/police.

I do have one question though: Where do I get some of their brass??? [smile]
 
Must be a pretty good rumor as Smith and Wesson is about to release their M&P45 with features that are specifically designed to be put to the test as the new US sidearm.

Everyone has been doing that, though... with the hope that the RFP from
DOD or whoever it is will open back up again. They probably invested
so much money in designing it that it'd be dumb to not do it now. Even
if the military never buys it they will see considerable sales of the 45 in the
commercial market, if the current sales of the other caliber M+P's are any
indication.

-Mike
 
I can readily find anything I want... abeit at outrageous prices lately.

I never did understand the 'modern' theory of supply and demand.

Seems like if they have it and I want it, no matter how many they have, I'm gonna get screwed.

When Henry Ford started making the Model T, the prices went DOWN as demand went up. At one point, he was making $1 profit on each car, (the cars were sold at retail for $260 at the lowest point), but he made so many and so many wanted them, he got fabulously rich.

Things sure have changed.
 
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Must be a pretty good rumor as Smith and Wesson is about to release their M&P45 with features that are specifically designed to be put to the test as the new US sidearm.

The XM-8 was supposed to be the next main battle field firearm for the 21st century. Look at what happened to that.

Until the DoD announces specifications, test trials, and final acceptence, it's still a rumor.

FWIW, I think the decision to adopt the 9mm/M9 as the standard issue side arm
was a piss poor one. I don't know the history behind the decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if politics played a part in it.

Edit... never mind, I just answered my own question on the first Google hit...

The 9mm Pistol Program was a Congressionally-directed Non-Developmental Initiative to standardize DoD with NATO and field one handgun for all United States armed services.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/m9.htm
 
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FWIW, I think the decision to adopt the 9mm/M9 as the standard issue side arm
was a piss poor one. I don't know the history behind the decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if politics played a part in it.

The other day the show Modern Marvels on the History channel said that the U.S. government also owed the Italians money and this was one of the ways to repay them and meet NATO standards.
 
I never did understand the 'modern' theory of supply and demand.

Seems like if they have it and I want it, no matter how many they have, I'm gonna get screwed.

When Henry Ford started making the Model T, the prices went DOWN as demand went up. At one point, he was making $1 profit on each car, (the cars were sold at retail for $260 at the lowest point), but he made so many and so many wanted them, he got fabulously rich.

Things sure have changed.


Yeah, it's not always simple right? As like many things- they're many variables. I suspect Model T prices went down as efficiencies increased I'm sure (quicker assembly, better leveraged purchase of materials- ie qty discounts, etc). Any company has a choice- keep high prices and pocket more profit or lower prices and capture bigger market and make competitive entry into the market more difficult.

In general, like with ammo- if demand is high, and supply is low (or supply is expensive)= high prices. In the case of ammo, I don't necessarily believe the demand of ammo is the real cause of crazy high prices- but it the demand and limited supply of copper/lead, etc that are being gobbled up for other uses. That's what's killing us!
 
They probably invested so much money in designing it that it'd be dumb to not do it now. Even if the military never buys it they will see considerable sales of the 45 in the commercial market, if the current sales of the other caliber M+P's are any indication.

Just seems odd that they would design a different animal for the .45 in regard to the other M&P pistols. The M&P45 comes either with or without a thumb safety which no other M&P offers.

I guess time will tell. I sure hope they do replace the 9mm, I also agree that was a REALLY bad move.
 
Must be a pretty good rumor as Smith and Wesson is about to release their M&P45 with features that are specifically designed to be put to the test as the new US sidearm.

... The Military has been talking about the switch back to the .45 for a few years now and from what I understand, iit is done. The 9mm had little knock down power and I stood right beside a guy who was shot from about 200 meters with a 9mm and it never even penetrated his Field Jacket. ...


Nope.

In Fall of 2006, the Combat Pistol (CP) program was suspended indefinitely


I think the grease gun is STILL in the inventory, as are .45's and the flamethrower (why didn't we use in caves in Afghanistan?).

I wonder, do these figures count all the "contractors" over there? Or do they buy their own (with our money)?
 
The Military has been talking about the switch back to the .45 for a few years now and from what I understand, iit is done. The 9mm had little knock down power and I stood right beside a guy who was shot from about 200 meters with a 9mm and it never even penetrated his Field Jacket.

Please educate me on this, I'm curious. I can't see anyone using a 9mm handgun at 200m and a 9mm MG wouldn't make sense to me since I thought we used the .223 M16? Or was this just an example of a stray 9mm round that just happened to hit some unfortunate soul?
 
I didn't know the PDs were into reloading.

Back when I joined the PD in 1979, one of the officers who ran a PT gun shop and was a MCJTC Firearms Instructor used to reload ammo for us to qualify with. This was a significant savings to the department budget as we had 24 FT POs and 35 PT POs qualifying 2x/year plus an evening shoot each year.

At some point in time (guessing sometime in the mid/late-1980s), there was a concern about "liability" if we used ammo different from what we carried, so we went to factory ammo for qual and carry (same stuff). Eventually due to cost (and noise complaints), they dropped to one qual/year and no night shoots.
 
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